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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Sabres coach Ted Nolan throws some cold water on analytics
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Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Sep 23 @ 2:52 PM ET
What's with all the drama over stats? This is like (frank)ing days of our lives. Everyone uses statistics for hockey analysis, either explicitly or implicitly, they play a role. Who gives a shark whether or not you use 'advanced' statistics? Everyone weighs different statistics differently in their decision making. Some people don't weigh certain statistics (i.e. corsi, fenwick, etc.) at all. Their loss. Is it a significant loss or a negligible loss? That's circumstantial and besides the point. Is it actually a gain because using these stats could mislead their decision making? Also circumstantial and besides the point. Whether or not an individual can trust himself with using statistics is not a property of the usefulness of the statistic. It's a property of the usefulness of the individual.

And give me a break with the whole 'give me a Crosby or a Kopitar and it doesn't need to be broken down further' thing. What a waste of breath that statement is. That's pretty much like saying "complicated information is irrelevant for very simple decisions" as a rationalization for "complicated information is irrelevant." Whoever thought up that argument needs to do some meditation on the inner-workings of their own capacity for logic.

One more thing. This statement "hockey's not all that difficult" is a complete load of bullpoop. Another waste of breath. Sure hockey isn't that difficult, if you don't try to understand the insanely chaotic system that is hockey analysis. If all you see is W or L and you don't try to break down those functions into the variables that influence them then of course it's not going to be all that difficult.

Some people...

(more to come)

- RonPielep


exceptional rant, Ronnie...just a quick note, though...the quote was "hockey's not all that difficult. There's a science to it, but it's not rocket science"...just for clarity's sake
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Sep 23 @ 2:55 PM ET
That was not the original statement though. Miller played in 50% of the Sabres games last season and was in net for 75% of their total wins of all of last season.

I get what you are saying but that wasn't the original statement.

- Stripes77



The original statement is the issue. It's misleading.

It should be broken down into when he was a member of the team. He was a member of the team for 58 games last year, playing in 40 of them.

20 under Rolston who was 4-15-1
38 under Nolan who was 12-20-6
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Sep 23 @ 3:00 PM ET
just to point out, baseball and hockey are two different games with the former being a series of one-on-one pitcher/hitter battles... and that battle, which goes on at least 27 times per game is confined to an area roughly three feet high and eighteen inches wide, namely, the strike zone
- Michael Pachla


I'll be sure to pass this along to Mr. Lombardi. He'll be interested to know that his methods are a waste of time.
thatsapickle
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Dallas, TX
Joined: 03.08.2012

Sep 23 @ 3:07 PM ET
I'll be sure to pass this along to Mr. Lombardi. He'll be interested to know that his methods are a waste of time.
- Slump Buster



For my $0.02, the coach should be listening to his gut in terms of which players to play in certain situations during the game. He can have his assistants who know the stats give their opinion on why Player X should take an offensive zone face off, but the coach may see that Player Y is playing better than Player X in this game; someone that has the hunger and that look in his eye that he wants that moment.

You could relate it to some one like LeBron James who was terrible on taking the last shot in a game, but still got the ball because he had the best chance to win. It's a gut feeling and the coach puts who he feels is the best player.

I personally do not think Nolan discredits the stats, but he doesn't rely on them. I think the comments Tanner made from Lombardi, he still uses his knowledge in relation to the stats. The stats give a great picture, but the player ultimately dictates the game. Players have anomaly games where they exceed expectations (See: Stafford, Drew).

I think Murray and Nolan both agree that stats tell a good portion of the story, but you cannot discredit the knowledge that has worked in hockey long before these stats were brought into the forefront. I just believe, in my interpretation of the comments that they do not put 100% regard into what the stats say. They see if the stats align with what they see.
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Sep 23 @ 3:12 PM ET
For my $0.02, the coach should be listening to his gut in terms of which players to play in certain situations during the game. He can have his assistants who know the stats give their opinion on why Player X should take an offensive zone face off, but the coach may see that Player Y is playing better than Player X in this game; someone that has the hunger and that look in his eye that he wants that moment.

You could relate it to some one like LeBron James who was terrible on taking the last shot in a game, but still got the ball because he had the best chance to win. It's a gut feeling and the coach puts who he feels is the best player.

I personally do not think Nolan discredits the stats, but he doesn't rely on them. I think the comments Tanner made from Lombardi, he still uses his knowledge in relation to the stats. The stats give a great picture, but the player ultimately dictates the game. Players have anomaly games where they exceed expectations (See: Stafford, Drew).

I think Murray and Nolan both agree that stats tell a good portion of the story, but you cannot discredit the knowledge that has worked in hockey long before these stats were brought into the forefront. I just believe, in my interpretation of the comments that they do not put 100% regard into what the stats say. They see if the stats align with what they see.

- thatsapickle


I think it's interesting that stats are so divisive in hockey, but aren't in any other sport really.
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Sep 23 @ 3:13 PM ET
I think it's interesting that stats are so divisive in hockey, but aren't in any other sport really.
- HonkFortheGoose



Sabremetrics are still very controversial in baseball.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Sep 23 @ 3:17 PM ET
I think it's interesting that stats are so divisive in hockey, but aren't in any other sport really.
- HonkFortheGoose


Validity of possession stats in soccer can cause a stir amongst fans and managers.
yen6d1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: maxim Afinogenov, NY
Joined: 02.21.2011

Sep 23 @ 3:20 PM ET
Sorry off topic, Any way to watch/ stream the game tonight?
RonPielep
Location: "Welcome to HockeyBuzz. Come for the rumors. Stay for the idiots." - Feds91Stammer
Joined: 08.21.2014

Sep 23 @ 3:21 PM ET
exceptional rant, Ronnie...just a quick note, though...the quote was "hockey's not all that difficult. There's a science to it, but it's not rocket science"...just for clarity's sake
- Michael Pachla


Thanks!
Like any other credible and integrous writer I occasionally like to twist information to bend the narrative in my favor.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 3:21 PM ET
Sorry off topic, Any way to watch/ stream the game tonight?
- yen6d1

Stop by here later.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Sep 23 @ 3:24 PM ET
Man reading back was rough, for a moment there i wasn't even sure what was being debated


I just want to hear the cliff notes of Coller/Schopp's rant of hearing about this
yen6d1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: maxim Afinogenov, NY
Joined: 02.21.2011

Sep 23 @ 3:28 PM ET
Stop by here later.
- cabin

lol true
thatsapickle
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Dallas, TX
Joined: 03.08.2012

Sep 23 @ 3:31 PM ET
I think it's interesting that stats are so divisive in hockey, but aren't in any other sport really.
- HonkFortheGoose



I agree. I do not see that a football coach relies on what the stats say about calling in a pass play versus a run play on 2nd down away in the wind when there is a slight drizzle. That may be a strange example though, because chances are you would run.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 3:45 PM ET
Man reading back was rough, for a moment there i wasn't even sure what was being debated


I just want to hear the cliff notes of Coller/Schopp's rant of hearing about this

- Sabresfan-365

It went off the rails when we found out that Enroth was better than Miller last year
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Sep 23 @ 3:46 PM ET
It went off the rails when we found out that Enroth was better than Miller last year
- sbroads24



oh my!
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 3:54 PM ET
It went off the rails when we found out that Enroth was better than Miller last year
- sbroads24

Giggle Giggle
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 3:58 PM ET
Interesting

http://www.usatoday.com/s...lantic-division/15249299/
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Sep 23 @ 4:00 PM ET
It went off the rails when we found out that Enroth was better than Miller last year
- sbroads24


I almost pulled a



But I couldn't make myself leave
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Sep 23 @ 4:08 PM ET
Interesting

http://www.usatoday.com/s...lantic-division/15249299/

- cabin



My favorite part:

Breakthrough candidate: Girgensons had an eight-goal rookie season that seemed like a 15-goal one because he plays with heart. He should double his goal total this season. You win with players like him.

Can't wait to wear my jersey this year.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 4:16 PM ET
My favorite part:

Breakthrough candidate: Girgensons had an eight-goal rookie season that seemed like a 15-goal one because he plays with heart. He should double his goal total this season. You win with players like him.

Can't wait to wear my jersey this year.

- HonkFortheGoose


Thought you would like that .
Cheeseballin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 07.05.2011

Sep 23 @ 4:18 PM ET
My favorite part:

Breakthrough candidate: Girgensons had an eight-goal rookie season that seemed like a 15-goal one because he plays with heart. He should double his goal total this season. You win with players like him.

Can't wait to wear my jersey this year.

- HonkFortheGoose


Sophmore slump. 5 Goals and is injured for 20+ games because of the way he plays.
gerbe42
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 07.10.2011

Sep 23 @ 4:22 PM ET
Interesting

http://www.usatoday.com/s...lantic-division/15249299/

- cabin


nice read. There can never been enough reading material on the sabres. One part i want to point out is that the writer said "reinhart is a lock for the roster" which is completely baseless. Though, i could see that someone on the outside looking in would believe with our roster a number 2 pick would have to make the team.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Sep 23 @ 4:22 PM ET
Thought you would like that .
- cabin


I really liked the projected standings part
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Sep 23 @ 4:26 PM ET
Sophmore slump. 5 Goals and is injured for 20+ games because of the way he plays.
- Cheeseballin


He managed 8 goals on a team that had a record low for goal scoring. I doubt he ends up with less this season.

And shhhhhhhhhh...don't jinx him!
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 4:27 PM ET
Canes roster for tonight from their site.


Tlusty-Jo. Staal-Boychuk
Gerbe-Nash-Shugg
McGinn-Rask-Nemisz
Woods-Sutter-Ja. Staal

Hainsey-Faulk
Gleason-Liles
Jordan-Rissanen

Khudobin
MacIntyre
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