He doesn't look at entire seasons. He enjoys finding outliers to discredit statistics.
- PhillySportsGuy

Possession and chances are two completely different things. And are not one in the same. The other team can technically dominate in possession in terms of shot metrics, which is the only available measure of possession at this time. And yet be on the losing end of legitimate goal scoring chances. On a shift, if one team takes 4 shots from distance, that are either a routine save or miss the net. But the other team takes one of those shots that missed the net, and transitions that into a 2 on 1. Whether they score on it not. The team with the 4 poor quality chances wins the possession battle for that shift. But who won the chances battle?

And reality is that if you're playing one of the top teams, and you break even in possession at 50-50, you've done pretty good. Possession is important, but really it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
- MJL

That's one shift though. All about sample size.

That's one shift though. All about sample size.
- JFlyers00

Yes, sample size is important. The events that happen the least in Hockey games have the biggest impact on the game in a lot of cases.

And the beat goes on and on:

Sabres D Andrej Meszaros continues to get buried. He was on for 20% (5 for, 20 against). Through three games, he’s been on for 21 shot attempts for and 69 against (23.3%).
.

Yes, sample size is important. The events that happen the least in Hockey games have the biggest impact on the game in a lot of cases.
- MJL

Like fighting

And the beat goes on and on:

Sabres D Andrej Meszaros continues to get buried. He was on for 20% (5 for, 20 against). Through three games, he’s been on for 21 shot attempts for and 69 against (23.3%).
.
- AllInForFlyers

Flyers are going to need to step up their efforts if they want McDavid. Only playing Amac for 28 minutes isn't going to cut it when your competition is going even further.

And I realize that it's not just Meszaros, but man, he's definitely part of the problem, anymore

I fail to see the difference
- PhillySportsGuy

This entire exchange is beautiful. Well done guys.

One and the same.
- MJL

Shouldn't bet on clutch plays, key goals and key saves over a long period. Blocked shots can be lessened with greater possession time. Quality scoring chances increase with possession. I'm not sure you can really quantify the effects of a "momentum play".

Flyers are going to need to step up their efforts if they want McDavid. Only playing Amac for 28 minutes isn't going to cut it when your competition is going even further.
- PhillySportsGuy

Their metrics are brutal; they're getting him or Eichel. They're just flat-out bad. No matter how bad the Flyers may look, with reasonable health, Giroux's gonna do his thing and help win some games - and yes, I still think they can make the playoffs, before someone comes in and kills me

The Sabres' No. 1 center is Tyler Ennis. Enough said

LET'S GO FLYERS!!!!!

Their metrics are brutal; they're getting him or Eichel. They're just flat-out bad. No matter how bad the Flyers may look, with reasonable health, Giroux's gonna do his thing and help win some games - and yes, I still think they can make the playoffs, before someone comes in and kills me

The Sabres' No. 1 center is Tyler Ennis. Enough said
- AllInForFlyers

It would be nice to see Eichel and McD, if they don't end up here, out of the East. OV, Stamkos, Tavares, Crosby, Malkin... enough is enough.

Their metrics are brutal; they're getting him or Eichel. They're just flat-out bad. No matter how bad the Flyers may look, with reasonable health, Giroux's gonna do his thing and help win some games - and yes, I still think they can make the playoffs, before someone comes in and kills me

The Sabres' No. 1 center is Tyler Ennis. Enough said
- AllInForFlyers

I know. The Flyers actually have some good players. The Sabres are so horrible. They're the Sixers of the NHL right now. Hinkie would be proud.

Shouldn't bet on clutch plays, key goals and key saves over a long period. Blocked shots can be lessened with greater possession time. Quality scoring chances increase with possession. I'm not sure you can really quantify the effects of a "momentum play".
- NickTheKid87

What do you mean that you shouldn't bet on clutch play, key goals, and key saves? They happen all the time in Hockey. Just not in the same amount as shots attempted that makes up possession numbers. A key blocked shot at the right time can't be lessened with greater possession time. That key blocked shot can have a much greater impact on the game. You don't need to quantify a momentum play. You can see it when it happens, and the effect it has on a game. Doesn't need to be measured with a statistic. Lots of factors that are paramount to success in Hockey can't be measured statistically. That's what a lot of "stats heads' don't get.

It would be nice to see Eichel and McD, if they don't end up here, out of the East. OV, Stamkos, Tavares, Crosby, Malkin... enough is enough.
- Tomahawk

One will be in Buffalo. Thats pretty much a given

anaheim creams us tonight

It would be nice to see Eichel and McD, if they don't end up here, out of the East. OV, Stamkos, Tavares, Crosby, Malkin... enough is enough.
- Tomahawk

Well, I'll tell you what: I've seen Edmonton twice and they look like they're picking in the Top 5 again.

Carolina's gotta be in the hunt, though. Florida looks like a poop-show again...it could be that both are gonna be Eastern bound

What do you mean that you shouldn't bet on clutch play, key goals, and key saves? They happen all the time in Hockey. Just not in the same amount as shots attempted that makes up possession numbers. A key blocked shot at the right time can't be lessened with greater possession time. That key blocked shot can have a much greater impact on the game. You don't need to quantify a momentum play. You can see it when it happens, and the effect it has on a game. Doesn't need to be measured with a statistic. Lots of factors that are paramount to success in Hockey can't be measured statistically. That's what a lot of "stats heads' don't get.
- MJL

You're banking on intangibles and the right things happening at the right time. Building a team that can possess the puck and create chances can make these things happen. That's what a lot traditionalists don't get.

Okay, math brain teaser: I can prove that a number is equal to 2 times itself:


Take : a^2 - b^2, and assume that a = b

a^2 - b^2 = (a + b) * (a - b) = a * (a-b)

Divide by (a - b)

(a + b) = a

Why is this not possible?

Yes, sample size is important. The events that happen the least in Hockey games have the biggest impact on the game in a lot of cases.
- MJL

I'm done...

Okay, math brain teaser: I can prove that a number is equal to 2 times itself:


Take : a^2 - b^2, and assume that a = b

a^2 - b^2 = (a + b) * (a - b) = a * (a-b)

Divide by (a - b)

(a + b) = a

Why is this not possible?
- jmatchett383

If a=b and you divid by (a-b), you would be dividing by a denominator of 0, which is not possible.

Okay, math brain teaser: I can prove that a number is equal to 2 times itself:


Take : a^2 - b^2, and assume that a = b

a^2 - b^2 = (a + b) * (a - b) = a * (a-b)

Divide by (a - b)

(a + b) = a

Why is this not possible?
- jmatchett383

Because (a+b)(a-b) isn't equal to a*(a-b)

It's equal to a(squared)-b(squared), due to the rules of polynomials

a*(a-b) is equal to a(squared)-ab, due to the rules of distrbution

If a=b and you divid by (a-b), you would be dividing by a denominator of 0, which is not possible.
- PhillySportsGuy

And you say you've been away from math too long.

But yes...you'd be surprised how long it took some engineers to figure that out.

Okay, math brain teaser: I can prove that a number is equal to 2 times itself:


Take : a^2 - b^2, and assume that a = b

a^2 - b^2 = (a + b) * (a - b) = a * (a-b)

Divide by (a - b)

(a + b) = a

Why is this not possible?
- jmatchett383

Divide what by (a - b)?

I mean, I guess it doesn't matter, but still

Because (a+b)(a-b) isn't equal to a*(a-b)

It's equal to a(squared)-b(squared), due to the rules of polynomials
- AllInForFlyers

Sure it is. Foil the first part:
(a * a) - (a * b) + (a * b) - (b * b) = a^2 - b^2
The second part is (a *a) - (a * b). Since a = b, then you have a^2 - b^2 by substitution.