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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Four Goals Just Enough, Luke Schenn, Ghost Injuries
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MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Nov 10 @ 10:26 AM ET
Trollbuzz
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 10 @ 10:26 AM ET
The big increases in the cap also coincided with new television contracts and the rise of the Canadian dollar compared to the US dollar. The Canadian dollar is now shrinking and their are no new tv contracts on the horizon. I think the ceiling will still go up a bit but nothing huge enough to help the Flyers situation.
- psuhockey



If I'm not mistaken, the increase from the TV deals will kick in this year, not last year. I think it's going to go up substantially.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 10 @ 10:27 AM ET
Sami Kapanen inducted into Finnish Hockey HOF. Congrats to one of hockey's true warriors.
- Jsaquella


Well deserved!!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 10 @ 10:27 AM ET
Lost $2M per team this past summer... can't imagine what current gas prices and fewer outdoor games is going to do to the cap this coming summer.
- Tomahawk



Cap increase is based on revenue, not profit.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:28 AM ET
Lower gas prices will make the cap go down?
- Feanor

Considering the cap is based on revenue, not profit, I don't think it's a factor.

(leight)
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:30 AM ET
Considering the cap is based on revenue, not profit, I don't think it's a factor.

(leight)

- BulliesPhan87


Crude is Canada's largest export. Rise in CND in past decade was mostly fueled (ha) by Albertan oil rush. Oil prices down, trade imbalance, less dollar reserves for Canada, loony is weak.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:31 AM ET
If I'm not mistaken, the increase from the TV deals will kick in this year, not last year. I think it's going to go up substantially.
- MJL

I think the US deal kicked in last year, and the Canadian one kicks in this year. There seemed to be some ambiguity/varied opinions on when that would affect the cap though.

Either way, I think you're right. Maybe the cap doesn't rise as much as expected/hoped, but it's going up.
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Nov 10 @ 10:32 AM ET
Andy Greene gave a hometown discount in order to get a deal done a year in advance and came in at 5 x 5. Maybe Coburn will too.
- Feanor

Decent comparable but Green's new contract was over a 50% increase from his previous deal. This is also Coburn's last time to score big. Even at $5.5 with the other 3 guys to sign, it will be really tough to fill out a roster. Your talking approx $20 million between Coburn, Voracek, B.schenn, and Couturier. That would bring the total roster to 13 not including Pronger's contract. That's a lot of other guys to sign at pretty much under a $1 mil a piece.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:32 AM ET
Crude is Canada's largest export. Rise in CND in past decade was mostly fueled (ha) by Albertan oil rush. Oil prices down, trade imbalance, less dollar reserves for Canada, loony is weak.
- Tomahawk

Touche. I could well be wrong, but I thought last year's less-than-expected increase was already affected by the weakened CND. I would expect the same this year, an increase that doesn't meet the initial optimistic expectations after the TV deals were signed.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:34 AM ET
Touche. I could well be wrong, but I thought last year's less-than-expected increase was already affected by the weakened CND.
- BulliesPhan87


They're projecting it loses more value through the next year or so.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Nov 10 @ 10:35 AM ET
Never too early for a look at next year's possible roster.

FORWARDS
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Brayden Schenn ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Matt Read ($3.625m)
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.000m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Taylor Leier ($0.780m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m) / R.J. Umberger ($4.600m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.850m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Michael Del Zotto ($3.000m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)
Samuel Morin ($0.894m) / Mark Streit ($5.250m)
Andrew MacDonald ($5.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) /
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Ray Emery ($1.000m)
LTIR
Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,912,117; BONUSES: $757,933
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $87,883
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 10 @ 10:37 AM ET
Flyers have quite a few options to control their cap situation prior to the 16-17 season

1. Buyout Umberger after 15-16, saves 3.1 million
2. Grossmann's deal is up, replace him with Morin, savings of roughly 2.6 million
3. Trade VLC after 15-16, retain 50% to make the deal happen, savings of 2.25 million
4. Trade Streit after 15-16, retain 40%, replace with Ghost, savings of roughly 2.15
million
5. Trade Pronger after this season to some one struggling to reach the cap floor. With an actual salary of 550k and a cap hit of 4.925 million for 2 years, his deal could be very attractive to a few teams.

By making these moves, they save about 15 million going into 16-17. When you factor in reasonable increases to the cap over the next 2 years, they should be fine.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Nov 10 @ 10:45 AM ET
Flyers have quite a few options to control their cap situation prior to the 16-17 season

1. Buyout Umberger after 15-16, saves 3.1 million
2. Grossmann's deal is up, replace him with Morin, savings of roughly 2.6 million
3. Trade VLC after 15-16, retain 50% to make the deal happen, savings of 2.25 million
4. Trade Streit after 15-16, retain 40%, replace with Ghost, savings of roughly 2.15
million
5. Trade Pronger after this season to some one struggling to reach the cap floor. With an actual salary of 550k and a cap hit of 4.925 million for 2 years, his deal could be very attractive to a few teams.

By making these moves, they save about 15 million going into 16-17. When you factor in reasonable increases to the cap over the next 2 years, they should be fine.

- BiggE



But trolling.....
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:51 AM ET
They're projecting it loses more value through the next year or so.
- Tomahawk

I guess there's just a lot yet to be seen, then. I expect we'll still see a modest raise to the cap though.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:57 AM ET
Flyers have quite a few options to control their cap situation prior to the 16-17 season

1. Buyout Umberger after 15-16, saves 3.1 million
2. Grossmann's deal is up, replace him with Morin, savings of roughly 2.6 million
3. Trade VLC after 15-16, retain 50% to make the deal happen, savings of 2.25 million
4. Trade Streit after 15-16, retain 40%, replace with Ghost, savings of roughly 2.15
million
5. Trade Pronger after this season to some one struggling to reach the cap floor. With an actual salary of 550k and a cap hit of 4.925 million for 2 years, his deal could be very attractive to a few teams.

By making these moves, they save about 15 million going into 16-17. When you factor in reasonable increases to the cap over the next 2 years, they should be fine.

- BiggE

I think we have to be prepared for the NHL to go the same route they did with the Devils and Kovalchuk if we try to trade Pronger.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:57 AM ET
I guess there's just a lot yet to be seen, then. I expect we'll still see a modest raise to the cap though.
- BulliesPhan87


Yeah, probably a modest rise, like this past summer.

50% of the league's team revenue and the Rogers windfall all subject to the exchange rate... worrisome.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 10 @ 10:58 AM ET
Flyers have quite a few options to control their cap situation prior to the 16-17 season

1. Buyout Umberger after 15-16, saves 3.1 million
2. Grossmann's deal is up, replace him with Morin, savings of roughly 2.6 million
3. Trade VLC after 15-16, retain 50% to make the deal happen, savings of 2.25 million
4. Trade Streit after 15-16, retain 40%, replace with Ghost, savings of roughly 2.15
million
5. Trade Pronger after this season to some one struggling to reach the cap floor. With an actual salary of 550k and a cap hit of 4.925 million for 2 years, his deal could be very attractive to a few teams.

By making these moves, they save about 15 million going into 16-17. When you factor in reasonable increases to the cap over the next 2 years, they should be fine.

- BiggE



Whether those moves happen or not, the point really is that there are always options. There always ways to maneuver around the cap. The Flyers have always been able to make the moves they want to make, and re-sign players. There always has to be a period of cap panic, sometimes triggered by unreliable sources. The cap is going to go up.
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 10:59 AM ET
Never too early for a look at next year's possible roster.

FORWARDS
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Brayden Schenn ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Matt Read ($3.625m)
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.000m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Taylor Leier ($0.780m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m) / R.J. Umberger ($4.600m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.850m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Michael Del Zotto ($3.000m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)
Samuel Morin ($0.894m) / Mark Streit ($5.250m)
Andrew MacDonald ($5.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) /
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Ray Emery ($1.000m)
LTIR
Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,912,117; BONUSES: $757,933
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $87,883

- Feanor


I'll see your roster and raise you a:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Brayden Schenn ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Matt Read ($3.625m)
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Chris VandeVelde ($0.675m) / Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.500m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.850m)
Blair Jones ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Michael Del Zotto ($3.000m) / Nick Schultz ($3.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Carlo Colaiacovo ($0.625m) / Samuel Morin ($0.894m)
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Ray Emery ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS
Daniel Briere ($0.000m)
Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
LTIR
Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
RETAINED SALARIES (3.26% of upper limit)
Vincent Lecavalier ($2.250m—50.00%)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,782,500; BONUSES: $712,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $2,217,500
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:59 AM ET
Yeah, probably a modest rise, like this past summer.

50% of the league's team revenue and the Rogers windfall all subject to the exchange rate... worrisome.

- Tomahawk

Worst case, we just have to weather a lot more Dan Ellises complaining about escrow
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Nov 10 @ 11:00 AM ET
Flyers have quite a few options to control their cap situation prior to the 16-17 season

1. Buyout Umberger after 15-16, saves 3.1 million
2. Grossmann's deal is up, replace him with Morin, savings of roughly 2.6 million
3. Trade VLC after 15-16, retain 50% to make the deal happen, savings of 2.25 million
4. Trade Streit after 15-16, retain 40%, replace with Ghost, savings of roughly 2.15
million
5. Trade Pronger after this season to some one struggling to reach the cap floor. With an actual salary of 550k and a cap hit of 4.925 million for 2 years, his deal could be very attractive to a few teams.

By making these moves, they save about 15 million going into 16-17. When you factor in reasonable increases to the cap over the next 2 years, they should be fine.

- BiggE

Nothing crazy in there but they will probably have some trouble making those trades unless they are willing to give up some picks too. Even at 50% retained, who would want Lecavalier? Those cap floor deals alway seem great in theory but only been done once with Tim Thomas and the islanders. Without a huge increase in the cap floor, there might not be that many teams in need of doing it. Streit could be moved without retention if his play remain steady.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 10 @ 11:01 AM ET
I think we have to be prepared for the NHL to go the same route they did with the Devils and Kovalchuk if we try to trade Pronger.
- BulliesPhan87



I hope the NHL learned a lesson is approving a deal, and then later punishing a team for it later. But I really don't see the league approving that trade in the first place.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 10 @ 11:02 AM ET
Worst case, we just have to weather a lot more Dan Ellises complaining about escrow
- BulliesPhan87


Hopefully there will be more MDZ's to scoop up later in the summer when other teams have blown their paltry allotment on more Engellands and Stoners.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 10 @ 11:02 AM ET
I'll see your roster and raise you a:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Brayden Schenn ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Matt Read ($3.625m)
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Chris VandeVelde ($0.675m) / Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.500m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.850m)
Blair Jones ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Michael Del Zotto ($3.000m) / Nick Schultz ($3.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Carlo Colaiacovo ($0.625m) / Samuel Morin ($0.894m)
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Ray Emery ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS
Daniel Briere ($0.000m)
Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
LTIR
Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
RETAINED SALARIES (3.26% of upper limit)
Vincent Lecavalier ($2.250m—50.00%)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,782,500; BONUSES: $712,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $2,217,500

- aflyerpower8



Unless it's another one year deal, I can see Del Zotto getting more then 3M
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 11:05 AM ET
Unless it's another one year deal, I can see Del Zotto getting more then 3M
- MJL


Luckily, he's an RFA and I think one good season will get him less than Johansen who is a 4M for the next three years.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 10 @ 11:05 AM ET
But trolling.....
- MBFlyerfan

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