And if that happens, Akeson's failure will be blamed on Lecavalier, and Umberger. And there is nothing wrong with Lecavalier's skating. He's skating pretty well, and his quickness is much improved from last year.
- MJL

I still think VLC should be in Montreal

Akeson should (on paper) be a good fit for Vinny. You have a player whose strength is a playmaker and a player whose strength is a finisher. Whether they can mesh, and whether or not Umberger pulls his weight, is yet to be determined.
- jmatchett383

It's certainly worth a shot, to be sure.

I definitely don't think it can hurt.

I can agree with this assessment. One of the major reasons for statistics was to remove some of the subjectivity from simple observations so when you start being too subjective it starts to defeat the purpose. If a bunch of people got together and decided what is a "quality shot" and used that as the measuring tool than that's a different story but the stat provided by Yost is still a new born in a way.
- NickTheKid87

The effort I can appreciate. Just still don't see this as a marked improvement in terms of what they're trying to show.

No, I do understand you. You're arguing that a specific 6-foot shot can be harder to stop than a specific 30-foot shot based on about 6000 unaccounted-for factors. And like I said, it's far from a perfect be-all/end-all stat, but it sheds a small amount of light into play that should be weighed very lightly.
- jmatchett383

Did the numbers include PP shots or just ES shots? I imagine the average 30 ft shot on the PP is going to be tougher to stop than the average 30 foot ES shot.

The biggest issue I have with Berube can be summed up by our good friend, Buts16, former Hockeybuzz poster extrodinaire and twitter legend:

Berube usually comes to the right decision, he just has to get it wrong 3 or 4 times before he gets there.

Honestly, when I posted line combos in pre-season, one of my suggestions was Akeson & Vinny. I just had Raffl on the LW, instead of Umberger. I'd put Bellemare there now and move Umberger to the 4th line....and I don't think Akeson played well vs Colorado
- Jsaquella

And here's how Buts theory is badly flawed. It removes the variable of the player, and their responsibility from the equation. As if Brayden Schenn was playing as he is now, when the season started, and he was on the Giroux line. that it wouldn't have clicked. And that Schenn was not at fault in any way for that combo not working. And let's not forget that Butsy and countless other fans knew all along that Schenn belonged at LW with Couturier and Read.

The effort I can appreciate. Just still don't see this as a marked improvement in terms of what they're trying to show.
- Jsaquella

It's step forward but only a small one. One day we'll be there but not today.

The Flyers have the most undrafted forwards of all NHL teams with 4. Most of these players are bottom 6/4th line forwards.

ANA: None
ARI: Klinkhammer, Hodgman
BOS: Robins
BUF: Flynn
CGY: Jooris
CAR: Patrick Brown
CHI: None
COL: Ryan Wilson, McLeod, Everberg
CBJ: BOBROVSKY
DAL: Garbutt, Roussel
DET: Glendening
EDM: Arcobello, Acton
FLA: None
LAK: None
MIN: Fontaine
MTL: Sekac, Desharnais
NSH: None
NJD: Gionta, Sislo
NYI: None
NYR: Zuccarello
OTT: None
PHI: Akeson, Bellemare, Raffl, Read
PIT: Sill
SJS: Desjardins, Goodrow, Hayes
STL: None
TBL: Johnson, JT Brown
TOR: Bozak
VAN: DeFazio, Burrows
WSH: O'Brien, Beagle
WPG: None
- NickTheKid87

That's one of the biggest problems I have with the stats community. No matter how much margin of error there is, or ambiguity there is, in an invented stat. They'll find "some value" in it. Even if the stat doesn't come within light years of being definitive in any way, they'll find some value in it. Sometimes the conclusion needs to be, that it just doesn't work. Too many variables involved to measure a goalie by the variable of shot quality, which is measured by the distance of the shot.
- MJL

I don't really have a problem with the stats community so much as the stats debate, but we've all been down that road and back enough times to sleepwalk it on one hand. I do find it odd though that a big stats guy is into shot quality now, after the concept of shot quality was laughed out of the room when Maple Leafs brass alluded to it last year.

So yeah, I just don't find value in applying a numeric value to shot quality.

CBJ: BOBROVSKY
- MrBigglesworth

I only counted undrafted FAs who are still playing for the team that signed them.

It's step forward but only a small one. One day we'll be there but not today.
- NickTheKid87

Exactly. I don't think anyone is saying these are very reliable and should be used exclusively to measure performance. I think the point is that the analytics community recognizes the need for better better measures of goaltending performance. It's just a very difficult thing to correlate into numbers at this point.

I can agree with this assessment. One of the major reasons for statistics was to remove some of the subjectivity from simple observations so when you start being too subjective it starts to defeat the purpose. If a bunch of people got together and decided what is a "quality shot" and used that as the measuring tool than that's a different story but the stat provided by Yost is still a new born in a way.
- NickTheKid87

Personally, I'll stick to save percentage (both on its own and narrowed down to even strength). Even if there was a consensus on some numeric way to judge shot quality, I'd be skeptical.

I only counted undrafted FAs who are still playing for the team that signed them.
- NickTheKid87

gochya!

Jody Shelley ... undrafted!
Craig Berube ... undrafted!

Exactly. I don't think anyone is saying these are very reliable and should be used exclusively to measure performance. I think the point is that the analytics community recognizes the need for better better measures of goaltending performance. It's just a very difficult thing to correlate into numbers at this point.
- PhillySportsGuy

That's just it, it's a first step to having a better metric for goaltender analysis...the trouble is, that I think is getting ignored or discounted, is the symbiotic relationship between the goalie and the defense in front of him.

Future line needs to be Raffl-Vinny-Akeson.

Umby can play 4th line duty well Im sure. He is holding everyone back. Although the Umberger-Couts-Read line had a couple good games. What happened with that idea??
- GOA88

I'm going to have to say that Umberger's a better fit on that line than Raffl would be right now.

I don't really have a problem with the stats community so much as the stats debate, but we've all been down that road and back enough times to sleepwalk it on one hand. I do find it odd though that a big stats guy is into shot quality now, after the concept of shot quality was laughed out of the room when Maple Leafs brass alluded to it last year.

So yeah, I just don't find value in applying a numeric value to shot quality.
- BulliesPhan87

Good point. Stats guys like Travis Yost just need to learn to walk away from a stat, and flush it down the toilet, sometimes. Instead of treating every stat that comes down the pipe, like a shiny new toy under the Christmas tree.

Personally, I'll stick to save percentage (both on its own and narrowed down to even strength). Even if there was a consensus on some numeric way to judge shot quality, I'd be skeptical.
- BulliesPhan87

Skepticism is great, that's what breeds improvement and change. I think there would have to be rating system for each shot based on certain factors but eventually it could be done. The idea, in principle isn't so bad but it has too much subjectivity around it currently.

Personally, I'll stick to save percentage (both on its own and narrowed down to even strength). Even if there was a consensus on some numeric way to judge shot quality, I'd be skeptical.
- BulliesPhan87

Absolutely. Because even if shot quality was judged by the distance of the shot... Where did the player (also what player) shoot the puck?? Top cheese? or In the chest???

Did the numbers include PP shots or just ES shots? I imagine the average 30 ft shot on the PP is going to be tougher to stop than the average 30 foot ES shot.
- PhillySportsGuy

I haven't looked at any numbers, just the argument. But I'd say that the average 30-foot shot is easier to stop than the average 6-foot shot, all things equal.

Exactly. I don't think anyone is saying these are very reliable and should be used exclusively to measure performance. I think the point is that the analytics community recognizes the need for better better measures of goaltending performance. It's just a very difficult thing to correlate into numbers at this point.
- PhillySportsGuy

The stat was used once in an article so being extremely critical of it and writing it off as worthless is a bit premature. In it's current form, sure, it doesn't say much but I think the idea behind is what should be focused on.

That's just it, it's a first step to having a better metric for goaltender analysis...the trouble is, that I think is getting ignored or discounted, is the symbiotic relationship between the goalie and the defense in front of him.
- Jsaquella

No question about that. But how can you incorporate that into a stat? I'm sure they'll try somehow.

I'm going to have to say that Umberger's a better fit on that line than Raffl would be right now.
- jmatchett383

Why so?

I don't really have a problem with the stats community so much as the stats debate, but we've all been down that road and back enough times to sleepwalk it on one hand. I do find it odd though that a big stats guy is into shot quality now, after the concept of shot quality was laughed out of the room when Maple Leafs brass alluded to it last year.

So yeah, I just don't find value in applying a numeric value to shot quality.
- BulliesPhan87

Yost did make a point to reiterate that SQ only has a "sliver of importance"... not sure how that gets taken to mean Adj SV% is the new gospel or something. Like he mentions at the end, it's not earth shattering, just another tool in the belt.

Absolutely. Because even if shot quality was judged by the distance of the shot... Where did the player (also what player) shoot the puck?? Top cheese? or In the chest???
- GOA88

We call that the Jeff Carter coefficient.

Why so?
- GOA88

Because Michael Raffl is currently injured.

Because Michael Raffl is currently injured.
- jmatchett383

Thats why I said "future line"