That's just it, it's a first step to having a better metric for goaltender analysis...the trouble is, that I think is getting ignored or discounted, is the symbiotic relationship between the goalie and the defense in front of him.
- Jsaquella

Yeah the idea that the goalie is independent of defense is a bit silly. You cited Bryz earlier and he's a good example. He was a average to below average goalie everywhere but Phoenix. Some aspects may be independent of defense like the shootout, penalty shots and clear-cut "soft" goals but a lot of the numbers a goalie puts up are directly affected by the team in front of him a good portion of the time.

Exactly. I don't think anyone is saying these are very reliable and should be used exclusively to measure performance. I think the point is that the analytics community recognizes the need for better better measures of goaltending performance. It's just a very difficult thing to correlate into numbers at this point.
- PhillySportsGuy

That's the entire point. If it's not reliable, throw it out!

Yost did make a point to reiterate that SQ only has a "sliver of importance"... not sure how that gets taken to mean Adj SV% is the new gospel or something. Like he mentions at the end, it's not earth shattering, just another tool in the belt.
- Tomahawk

True, Yost didn't put a gold ribbon on the idea and proclaim it to be the next Fenwick.

We call that the Jeff Carter coefficient.
- jmatchett383

Now we are getting somewhere...

I'm going to have to say that Umberger's a better fit on that line than Raffl would be right now.
- jmatchett383

Haven't you heard? Umberger is terrific away from the puck. Rumor is the further he gets away from the puck the bigger monster he becomes. I would personally be in favor if they tried him on the Moon.

Haven't you heard? Umberger is terrific away from the puck. Rumor is the further he gets away from the puck the bigger monster he becomes. I would personally be in favor if they tried him on the Moon.
- PLindbergh31

omg, thats (frank)ing great. I just burst out laughing in the office...

Good point. Stats guys like Travis Yost just need to learn to walk away from a stat, and flush it down the toilet. Instead of treating every stat that comes down the pipe, like a shiny new toy under the Christmas tree.
- MJL

I appreciate his effort, his job is to play around with numbers and see if they have predictive value over the long haul. By ignoring conventional notions you can find new useful ways to measure the game. I don't think this is one of those cases though, and I think it's just asking for confirmation bias (if not on his part, then by readers).

Thats why I said "future line"
- GOA88

I know. I was just saying that, at the current moment, Umberger is more or less the best fit (assuming they want to keep PEB at the center spot) for that line. When Raffl comes back, things can be re-evaluated. Maybe that line combo somehow sparks Umberger into consciousness.

True, Yost didn't put a gold ribbon on the idea and proclaim it to be the next Fenwick.
- Jsaquella

Big Corsi strikes again! Throw it out!

Haven't you heard? Umberger is terrific away from the puck. Rumor is the further he gets away from the puck the bigger monster he becomes. I would personally be in favor if they tried him on the Moon.
- PLindbergh31

Win.

Haven't you heard? Umberger is terrific away from the puck. Rumor is the further he gets away from the puck the bigger monster he becomes. I would personally be in favor if they tried him on the Moon.
- PLindbergh31

I heard he skates really well and never takes a penalty.

I know. I was just saying that, at the current moment, Umberger is more or less the best fit (assuming they want to keep PEB at the center spot) for that line. When Raffl comes back, things can be re-evaluated. Maybe that line combo somehow sparks Umberger into consciousness.
- jmatchett383

Umberger can play Center. Why dont they just play Umby as 4C. and play Bellemare with Vinny??

Umberger can play Center. Why dont they just play Umby as 4C. and play Bellemare with Vinny??
- GOA88

Because they seem to want to use PEB exclusively as center, while Umberger has played wing as well as center.

Skepticism is great, that's what breeds improvement and change. I think there would have to be rating system for each shot based on certain factors but eventually it could be done. The idea, in principle isn't so bad but it has too much subjectivity around it currently.
- NickTheKid87

I have a hard time envisioning a numeric/empirical way to judge shot quality that I'd find convincing, even with lots of time and effort.

Because they seem to want to use PEB exclusively as center, while Umberger has played wing as well as center.
- jmatchett383

I think we can all agree that Berube is not getting the most out of his players. At least at the forward position. Even a kid playing NHL 15 could come up with better line combos.

The stat was used once in an article so being extremely critical of it and writing it off as worthless is a bit premature. In it's current form, sure, it doesn't say much but I think the idea behind is what should be focused on.
- NickTheKid87

No, what was premature was writing the article. And it was poorly written at that.

I appreciate his effort, his job is to play around with numbers and see if they have predictive value over the long haul. By ignoring conventional notions you can find new useful ways to measure the game. I don't think this is one of those cases though, and I think it's just asking for confirmation bias (if not on his part, then by readers).
- BulliesPhan87

To me the article was a "Food for thought" thing and it's done that on here

The hardcore statheads may say it's legit and the extreme traditionalists will right it off as "fancy stats nonsense" but that's the nature of the beast. It's the moderates who can make the worthwhile inferences anyway.

I think we can all agree that Berube is not getting the most out of his players. At least at the forward position. Even a kid playing NHL 15 could come up with better line combos.
- GOA88

I disagree with that completely. Place some blame on the players.

I have a hard time envisioning a numeric/empirical way to judge shot quality that I'd find convincing, even with lots of time and effort.
- BulliesPhan87

It may be tough going but I don't see why it can't happen. I mean we've applied mathematics to much more complex things. Like the universe.

I have a hard time envisioning a numeric/empirical way to judge shot quality that I'd find convincing, even with lots of time and effort.
- BulliesPhan87

Even the quality of the shot itself would still be tough as a true tell-all stat. Things like fatigue and, in Mason's case, glare, have to be accounted for as well.

Yost did make a point to reiterate that SQ only has a "sliver of importance"... not sure how that gets taken to mean Adj SV% is the new gospel or something. Like he mentions at the end, it's not earth shattering, just another tool in the belt.
- Tomahawk

I don't think I said he professed it as gospel, but whatevs. I just think this tool is best left on the workbench when going off to the job.

That's just it, it's a first step to having a better metric for goaltender analysis...the trouble is, that I think is getting ignored or discounted, is the symbiotic relationship between the goalie and the defense in front of him.
- Jsaquella

I know war on ice also shows the save percentage of low, medium and high shots as well. Not sure if that helps.

Regardless, any save percentage stat is almost useless through 10 games.

3 bad bounces could be the difference between a .915 and a .925 at this point.

Yost did make a point to reiterate that SQ only has a "sliver of importance"... not sure how that gets taken to mean Adj SV% is the new gospel or something. Like he mentions at the end, it's not earth shattering, just another tool in the belt.
- Tomahawk

And that's where he went wrong. It's not another tool in the belt. And if it is, then just make anything up. And secondly, he failed to address the data itself, and all the variables involved. Really poorly written.

I have a hard time envisioning a numeric/empirical way to judge shot quality that I'd find convincing, even with lots of time and effort.
- BulliesPhan87

Player/puck tracking should help... they'll be able to figure in screens, deflections, speed, rotation, elevation, defensive positioning, etc one day.

I disagree with that completely. Place some blame on the players.
- MJL

They also deserve blame. But he stubbornly tries fitting a square peg in a round hole. Bellemare has been one of the better players so far.... hes on 4th line duty.... Ummmmm