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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 11/14/14 vs. CBJ
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 14 @ 10:27 AM ET
I think they underutilize Alderson a bit.

I'm not a huge proponent of the intangibles category, but I think Stortini does help Cousins stay more focused. Cousins reminds me a bit of Downie, but a little smaller and more skilled.

- PhillySportsGuy


Strikes me as more of a Versteeg... won't stop talking... like ever. Hides behind others.
Fast_Eddie_1
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Vorhees, NJ
Joined: 01.31.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:28 AM ET
He's been one of the top Flyer forwards for a while now. Looks like he is ready to bust out.
- MJL


Where is your mind at Mr. MJL?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:29 AM ET
Strikes me as more of a Versteeg... won't stop talking... like ever. Hides behind others.
- Tomahawk


Is Versteeg really that yappy?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 14 @ 10:30 AM ET
I've wanted them to do that from the 1st game of the season.
- PhillySportsGuy


Simmer/G/Jake
Schenn/Coots/Read
Raffl/Bellemare/Akeson
Rinaldo/Umberger/White

Oh look, 3 lines that can play D... how did that happen Vinny?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:32 AM ET
Simmer/G/Jake
Schenn/Coots/Read
Raffl/Bellemare/Akeson
Rinaldo/Umberger/White

Oh look, 3 lines that can play D... how did that happen Vinny?

- Tomahawk


Keep dreaming
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 14 @ 10:33 AM ET
Keep dreaming
- PhillySportsGuy


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 14 @ 10:33 AM ET
I don't think it's score effects. I think Kimmo was the only dman we had capable of having a CF% over 50% while playing against other teams top lines.



And his CF% in the those seven games is 47.6%. In the first seven games when he was playing easy minutes it was 54%. That's a huge drop.

- Feanor




They got Coburn back, and they need to get MacDonald back. So every defenseman is used in the right role, to make the entire unit more effective.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Nov 14 @ 10:36 AM ET
Simmer/G/Jake
Schenn/Coots/Read
Raffl/Bellemare/Akeson
Rinaldo/Umberger/White

Oh look, 3 lines that can play D... how did that happen Vinny?

- Tomahawk


I don't know if it's a good idea for umberger to center any line. I don't think he has centered for quite some time
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 14 @ 10:37 AM ET
Is Versteeg really that yappy?
- PhillySportsGuy


Why do you think he never had his mouthpiece in?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 14 @ 10:38 AM ET
The Flyers out shot attempted TB, and Florida in Florida.

http://www.naturalstattri...games.php?team=PHI&sit=ev

The Detroit game was a terrible one for the defense, as was the Montreal game. I don't think either one skews the numbers. They just reflect the reality of how bad they played.

- Feanor


My bad, was looking at the 'close' tab.


The last 3 games, they've played really well, but sat back on leads:

11-04 Oilers 65% close, 48% overall
11-06 Panthers 75% close, 48% overall
11-08 Avs 52% close, 40% overall.


The d-corps has definitely performed better than their raw ES numbers, at least over the last 3.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 14 @ 10:40 AM ET
He doesn't have to say anything at all. Have you heard anyone say they Like playing with umberger? I seriously question your hockey iq if you think moving Bellemare to the wing is a good idea right now. He is doing tremendous work at center no matter what garbage they try and saddle him with. What is your 4th line if you'd like to see raffl/vinny/PEB? Why hadn't berube at least experimented with that trio if it's such an interesting combination? Putting PEB and raffl on the wings on the same line isn't the recipe to best utilize their abilities IMO. One of them needs to center this team
- Just5



More to the point is, have you heard anyone say they don't like playing with Umberger? Even if they don't, they aren't going to state it publicly. Which is the point. You can seriously question my hockey IQ all you want. I could care less, and that is irrelevant. And bringing players statements ito the media, into the equation , as a main point in forming an opinion, points to hockey IQ involved.
Getting a good combination to mesh with Lecavalier and getting that line stronger at ES is more important then the 4th line is. Simply because they are going to play more. And for some other reasons. And I think Raffl and Bellemare on Lecavalier's wing would make a strong line. Vandevelde can play center, Umberger would make a strong 4th line player, and Laughton could come into the mix at some point.

Long term, I see the center lineup, as Giroux, Couturier, Laughton, Bellermare. But right now, Looking to get the best balance possible. Not against keeping Bellemare at center, because I think he is strong there. But I think that could make a good line combination.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:42 AM ET
Why do you think he never had his mouthpiece in?
- jmatchett383


It all makes sense now
Fast_Eddie_1
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Vorhees, NJ
Joined: 01.31.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:43 AM ET
More to the point is, have you heard anyone say they don't like playing with Umberger? Even if they don't, they aren't going to state it publicly. Which is the point. You can seriously question my hockey IQ all you want. I could care less, and that is irrelevant.
Getting a good combination to mesh with Lecavalier and getting that line stronger at ES is more important then the 4th line is. Simply because they are going to play more. And for some other reasons. And I think Raffl and Bellemare on Lecavalier's wing would make a strong line. Vandevelde can play center, Umberger would make a strong 4th line player, and Laughton could come into the mix at some point.

Long term, I see the center lineup, as Giroux, Couturier, Laughton, Bellermare. But right now, Looking to get the best balance possible. Not against keeping Bellemare at center, because I think he is strong there. But I think that could make a good line combination.

- MJL


So, you actually COULD care less? Well, wrap me in plastic and beat me with a stick. Someone struck a nerve!
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 14 @ 10:44 AM ET
I have a serious, legitimate question about the whole possession stat thing.

Ryan Wilson mentions possession or shot % numbers in every blog, or so it seems. He was talking about the TML last year having the worst recorded possession numbers. However, up until the last month of the season, they were sitting pretty nicely in a playoff spot, and simply imploded down the stretch.

Now, I don't know if their possession numbers were so terrible down the stretch that it brought the season number down that low (it likely didn't help), but it seems like, at least in their case, they simply imploded, possession numbers or not. The bottom line is that they stopped scoring, the goaltending became leaky, and the defenders weren't defending.

So, my question is this: taking away the debate of the usefulness of advanced stats, is it possible that a team simply does not execute and loses even if their possession numbers stay relatively the same as they were when the team wins? I know there are statistical anomalies where a team gets significantly outshot and out-possessed and wins (last year, Flyers @ LA), but is it possible that a team has other factors that contribute to their success more than just a collection of raw data?

Again, I don't want to start up the daily advanced stats discussion, but am just curious if other people who value them think that there are other factors which can impact a team more significantly than their possession and shot percentages using what happened to TML last year as an example.

/tldr
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 14 @ 10:45 AM ET
It all makes sense now
- PhillySportsGuy








jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 14 @ 10:46 AM ET
Blind Guardian is amazing.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 14 @ 10:49 AM ET
I have a serious, legitimate question about the whole possession stat thing.

Ryan Wilson mentions possession or shot % numbers in every blog, or so it seems. He was talking about the TML last year having the worst recorded possession numbers. However, up until the last month of the season, they were sitting pretty nicely in a playoff spot, and simply imploded down the stretch.

Now, I don't know if their possession numbers were so terrible down the stretch that it brought the season number down that low (it likely didn't help), but it seems like, at least in their case, they simply imploded, possession numbers or not. The bottom line is that they stopped scoring, the goaltending became leaky, and the defenders weren't defending.

So, my question is this: taking away the debate of the usefulness of advanced stats, is it possible that a team simply does not execute and loses even if their possession numbers stay relatively the same as they were when the team wins? I know there are statistical anomalies where a team gets significantly outshot and out-possessed and wins (last year, Flyers @ LA), but is it possible that a team has other factors that contribute to their success more than just a collection of raw data?

Again, I don't want to start up the daily advanced stats discussion, but am just curious if other people who value them think that there are other factors which can impact a team more significantly than their possession and shot percentages using what happened to TML last year as an example.

/tldr

- jmatchett383



All I'll say is that last year in the playoffs, using possession data compiled in the playoffs, which is a small sample size. I think 6 of the top 10 playoff teams in possession % got knocked out in the first round.

I could be wrong about that, but I remember noticing something along those lines. I think possession is important, but not at the top of the list.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Nov 14 @ 10:51 AM ET
I hate the guys who are always chewing on their mouthguards.
PhillaBully
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.20.2010

Nov 14 @ 10:54 AM ET
did we get mike richards yet?
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:56 AM ET
I don't know if it's a good idea for umberger to PLAY ON any line. I don't think he has HAD A PULSE for quite some time
- Just5


FTFY
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 14 @ 10:56 AM ET
did we get mike richards yet?
- PhillaBully


Yep. Traded the Schenn brothers and a 4th.
Steelmanpa
Joined: 08.31.2008

Nov 14 @ 10:57 AM ET
Sheena Parveen shows up with another guy and Hartsy gets depressed is a -2 and takes 2 minors.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:57 AM ET
So, you actually COULD care less? Well, wrap me in plastic and beat me with a stick. Someone struck a nerve!
- Fast_Eddie_1

Fast_Eddie_1
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Vorhees, NJ
Joined: 01.31.2012

Nov 14 @ 10:58 AM ET
Sheena Parveen shows up with another guy and Hartsy gets depressed is a -2 and takes 2 minors.
- Steelmanpa



Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 14 @ 10:59 AM ET
I could be wrong about that
- MJL


You are.

75% of the 1st-round series were won by the better possession team (FF% ES-close from regular season)

3 of the top-6 were there in the Conf Finals. Finals was #1 vs #6.
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