Does anyone else feel like this is the calm before the storm?
Like the road trip results are going to determine or perhaps "push" the next course of action.
- Steelmanpa

like the Salt N Pepa commercial

Agreed, he has the possibility of getting better after all he is only 21 but a few more seasons like this and I think then we have to start believing we might have overvalued him.
- opeth_pa

If it goes a few more seasons, he'll be stuck in the 3rd line shut down role for good. If he gets more O zone starts against weaker competition, he could develop better. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

1. It's been explained that these team numbers aren't just arbitrarily applied. An individual players influence over on ice results has been well demonstrated and supported with reams of evidence by the stat community over the last decade.


- AndrewD

No it hasn't been explained that they aren't just arbitrarily applied, because it can't be. Unless anyone thinks that one player out on the ice is responsible and culpable for every scoring chance for or against, or shot attempt for or against.

2. You incessantly repeat that hockey is a team game, therefore the team's stats with a player on the ice are somehow irrelevant? It doesn't follow, and it's a conclusion that isn't supported by the evidence.


- AndrewD

Not irrelevant, unreliable. Because of the false data issue. Which can't be removed from the way that the current data is collected. Corsi is simply a poor and unreliable stat for assessing individual players.

3. I dismissed the article by Staples because it's a joke, it's been widely debunked by guys like Jonathan Willis, Tyler Dellow, and more. I don't have time to go through line by line and do it myself, but here's a solid overview. http://www.theoilersrig.c.../07/corsi-facts-vs-norms/


- AndrewD

It was dismissed for the same reason that many analytics proponents dismiss it. It pokes holes in their premises that can't be overcome. I've read all the articles that try to explain it away. All they can offer is well yea it's not perfect, but its the best there is at the moment.

Your general reaction to any evidence provided that MacDonald is bad, and bad in all contexts is to simple plug your fingers in you ear and say "la la la la that's impossible la la la la". Rather than dig into the actual evidence and debate the conclusions, you just hand wave it away.


- AndrewD

Not just hand waved away. Eliminated as a reliable measure of a player due to the flawed data behind it. The science of it is is sound, they just have a data issue. Until they can find a way to eliminate the false data, it's suspect.
As far as the la la la nonsense. There is only one person calling an article a joke, and posting Homer Simpson gifs.

The cherry on top is you anointing your own position with the regal banner of "common sense and logic" when you've displayed a tremendous ignorance of how stats are gathered, applied, and how contextual factors are accounted for in those analyses.

But that's cool man, we'll agree to disagree and move on. I've got better things to do.
- AndrewD

I think any informed hockey fan understands that a player can be out on the ice for a shift, and played his position perfectly, covered his man perfectly, and handled the puck perfectly. While being subjected to the mistakes made by a teammate that result in scoring chances against, or shot attempts against. In the same way that a player can get credit for a scoring chance for, or shots attempted for, when he had zero to do with it. Heck a defenseman can be changing behind the play, while his teammates are up ice attacking the opposition net. That to me is common sense.
There is not a single analytic that exists today that the fans have access to, that is capable of removing that contextual factor from the data. And not a single analytics guru that can do the same. Do you now why, because it's simply not possible with the data collection methods currently available.

And here's the real cherry on top. As it is with most in the analytics community, you avoided actually discussing the point made in the Staples article. I wonder why that is?

And rather then just coming to a biased conclusion and labeling me as ignorant, you could actually engage and find out what I know. But that didn't happen. And there is only one side attacking the poster, rather then the position offered. Very telling. And that's because when the obvious and undebatable issues with stats like Corsi are brought up, it's like the analytics gurus hit a brick wall going 60mph. Stops them right in their tracks. And then come the insults and the Simpspn gifs.

like the Salt N Pepa commercial
- vejim

Berube: I'm pushing! I'm pushing real good.

He was good last year considering the usage rates he was forced into. He's gotten off to a bad start this season. His ES scoring rates were average among 2nd line centers last season.

I think it's important to not overreact to a slow start. Read and Couts have been good for 3 straight years.
- PhillySportsGuy

Completely agree with this.

We've seen that line be effective when they get a steady left wing. Just a few weeks ago they looked really good with Schenner on the left side and Berube stuck them with Umberger again.

He was good last year considering the usage rates he was forced into. He's gotten off to a bad start this season. His ES scoring rates were average among 2nd line centers last season.

I think it's important to not overreact to a slow start. Read and Couts have been good for 3 straight years.
- PhillySportsGuy

We can argue semantics on whether or not Couturier has been good for 3 straight years. His first season was his best when he finished with 27 points and a +18 in 77 games. The last 2 seasons he has had 15 points, -8 in 46 games and 39 points , +1 in 82 games last season.

I am okay with him not putting up offensive numbers but what is disconcerting to me is how far his defensive play has dropped off right now. Maybe it is a slump and we need to look at him at the end of the season but right now he isn't getting it done on any front at all.

Completely agree with this.

We've seen that line be effective when they get a steady left wing. Just a few weeks ago they looked really good with Schenner on the left side and Berube stuck them with Umberger again.
- AndrewD

More and more I see Berube trading a player or a pick with the condition being that Umberger also has to be taken.

Edit Hexy. I mean Hexy. The Berube hate is flowing strong today.

There was some pretty good improv going on in AC the other night.
- tangent_man

Completely agree with this.

We've seen that line be effective when they get a steady left wing. Just a few weeks ago they looked really good with Schenner on the left side and Berube stuck them with Umberger again.
- AndrewD

Thats true. I don't know why they haven't gone with PEB on their LW and moved Umberger to the 4th line.

Maybe the league should give out two more buyouts

Would this team be really that bad with Briere right now

Had a dream they traded Brayden Schenn but can't remember for who or what team

I was the good looking one
- PhillySportsGuy

Wow, you really do believe everything your wife says, don't you?

Maybe the league should give out two more buyouts

Would this team be really that bad with Briere right now
- Winning

Nope. The Flyers managed to screw themselves even worse with the trade off of Briere for Vinny.

To dip a toe into this debate, does the bold above mean we don't need a #1 defenseman on the blueline? In other words, if individuals don't have that great of an impact on the collective known as Team, why are so many saying we lack a true #1?
- wolfhounds

I think this is confusing things. They absolutely need a #1. It's not that individual players don't have a great impact on the team. It's just that the analytics some want to use, isn't reliable to measure the impact that an individual player has on a team. Good or bad.

I was the good looking one
- PhillySportsGuy

Tallest midget.

I think his point is that individual players can't be isolated using data. They can only be evaluated by him and Flyer scouts.
- PhillySportsGuy

You got the first half right.

I still remember Homer saying their entire offseason plans changed when they found out Vinny was available. What the hell else was he planning? Signing an actual pylon?

Tallest midget.
- Jsaquella

We can argue semantics on whether or not Couturier has been good for 3 straight years. His first season was his best when he finished with 27 points and a +18 in 77 games. The last 2 seasons he has had 15 points, -8 in 46 games and 39 points , +1 in 82 games last season.

I am okay with him not putting up offensive numbers but what is disconcerting to me is how far his defensive play has dropped off right now. Maybe it is a slump and we need to look at him at the end of the season but right now he isn't getting it done on any front at all.
- opeth_pa

I think his defensive game at 5v5 has been solid this year. The work on the PK has really dropped off for the entire team. Some of it is probably on him.

Looking at his numbers, they are fairly similar to last year when Umberger isn't on his line. There is reason to believe that he would become a more effective player with a Raffl or PEB on his LW.

We can argue semantics on whether or not Couturier has been good for 3 straight years. His first season was his best when he finished with 27 points and a +18 in 77 games. The last 2 seasons he has had 15 points, -8 in 46 games and 39 points , +1 in 82 games last season.

I am okay with him not putting up offensive numbers but what is disconcerting to me is how far his defensive play has dropped off right now. Maybe it is a slump and we need to look at him at the end of the season but right now he isn't getting it done on any front at all.
- opeth_pa

I really think like most of the players on the team, the struggles in winning, and personally struggling to provide offense and offensive zone attack has gotten to him mentally. And it's affected the other side of his game.

Wow, you really do believe everything your wife says, don't you?
- BiggE

No. I said I was the good looking one

We can argue semantics on whether or not Couturier has been good for 3 straight years. His first season was his best when he finished with 27 points and a +18 in 77 games. The last 2 seasons he has had 15 points, -8 in 46 games and 39 points , +1 in 82 games last season.

I am okay with him not putting up offensive numbers but what is disconcerting to me is how far his defensive play has dropped off right now. Maybe it is a slump and we need to look at him at the end of the season but right now he isn't getting it done on any front at all.
- opeth_pa

Coots is a young player so I think we should cut him a little bit of slack for having a slump defensively. It's just too bad that a lot of the Flyers success depends on him playing on top of his defensive capabilities.

Also, confidence is such a huge part of the game and often gets overlooked, and just 'put some effort into the game' doesn't miraculously fix it. As far as I know, no team uses a sport-psychologist on a regular basis, if at all. A lot of teams (mostly soccer) in Europe make good use of those guys, but I keep getting the vibe over in NA that it's 'soft' to focus in the psychological part of the sport (I remember how a lot of ppl snickered when Fleury used one after the -13 playoff).

I still remember Homer saying their entire offseason plans changed when they found out Vinny was available. What the hell else was he planning? Signing an actual pylon?
- hereticpride

Standing pat, drafting and developing talent.

I think any informed hockey fan understands that a player can be out on the ice for a shift, and played his position perfectly, covered his man perfectly, and handled the puck perfectly. While being subjected to the mistakes made by a teammate that result in scoring chances against, or shot attempts against. In the same way that a player can get credit for a scoring chance for, or shots attempted for, when he had zero to do with it. Heck a defenseman can be changing behind the play, while his teammates are up ice attacking the opposition net. That to me is common sense.
There is not a single analytic that exists today that the fans have access to, that is capable of removing that contextual factor from the data. And not a single analytics guru that can do the same. Do you now why, because it's simply not possible with the data collection methods currently available.

This is a flagrant strawman. No one is arguing that a player is perfectly, 100% responsible for their on ice results.

I'm merely arguing that an individual has a legitimate influence over those numbers, and that influence trumps the impact of teammates, zone starts, etc over a large enough sample size.

Andrew MacDonald is not 100% responsible for every scoring chance against with him on the ice. But he is no absolved of the blame for his poor on ice results simply because you falsely believe that only his teammates bare all an inordinate amount of the blame.

When you control for the strength of the team around him, and his quality of teammate, you are still left with a player that drastically under performs relative to his ice time and contract.

Also..with regards to the Simpsons picture to which you've seized on as a tremendous affront to good debate.

Your opening salvo in this argument was to dismiss my credibility entirely. The mental gymnastics required for you to make yourself out as some sort of victim here are staggering.

Statements like he's one of the single worst defenseman in the NHL refutes itself. And disqualifies the source as being credible

I still remember Homer saying their entire offseason plans changed when they found out Vinny was available. What the hell else was he planning? Signing an actual pylon?
- hereticpride

I totally forgot he said that. In hindsight, it makes the deal even worse. "Drop everything! Lecavalier is available!"