I heard he saw Cherry Hill on a map once.
- hereticpride

He was at a slumber party at Bobby Ryan's once

Flyers must want Macdavid
- Winning

Gonna be a long 59 games if they stay in that conversation

Gonna be a long 59 games if they stay in that conversation
- AllInForFlyers

Have to figure that the next ten games is critical for this team. Anything less then .500 and they're cooked. Might be even if they go .500.

Gonna be a long 59 games if they stay in that conversation
- AllInForFlyers

I would be happy if they're in position to land Crouse. But having that #1 pick in this draft is like a pass to trade for any player you want in the league( sans like 3 guys)

This most disturbing to me about this season is the fact that Couturier, Read and Simmonds (after his start) are literally useless right now.

Couturier and Read are not playing a good 2 way game and have been out for the majority of PP goals against.

Simmonds is not playing his brand of hockey which is a solid power forward..

I know people will point to VL and Umby but come on they are not the core forwards on this team regardless of what their contracts state.

Those 3 players I listed are the biggest disappointment so far and they either need to work out of it or something more drastic has to happen.


The other thing I don't understand is how soft this team is to play against. Rinaldo is the only physical player actually playing physically and their are people here that feel he is the biggest problem they have and he should be gone. Take him out of the lineup and their is 0% physical play on this team right now. I would have no problems with benching 1 of Vl or Umberger and bringing Rosehill up for a few games so at least their is someone out there with Rinaldo that isn't just bending over and taking it from other teams.
- opeth_pa

I couldn't agree with this more. I understand the need to reduce the penalties, but the 2014 Flyers seem to have thrown the baby out with the bath water.

There is very little piss and vinegar in this lineup. I don't want goons ... but a few guys who are a pain in the a$$ to play against would be a nice start.

I couldn't agree with this more. I understand the need to reduce the penalties, but the 2014 Flyers seem to have thrown the baby out with the bath water.

There is very little piss and vinegar in this lineup. I don't want goons ... but a few guys who are a pain in the a$$ to play against would be a nice start.
- FlyerGuy

No question about it. No fight in this dog right now.

I didn't ignore anything. The rating system he used to rate opponents, is poor due to the same flaw. The flaw of false data in Corsi. You can't get away from it. Any player assessment using Corsi is flawed by the false data. Making it unreliable. There is no way around it. You can read those numbers over and over. Can't change that. It's impossible. And that's the key to Corsi and understanding it properly. Which you've yet to address or refute. But I don't expect you to, because it's impossible to remove it from the equation.

Especially with the way this current team is playing, you want to use Corsi to look at any player on this team?

You're entire post is team numbers of the opposition against Andrew MacDonald. I guess he was the only player out there.
- MJL

There's always degrees of statistical uncertainty - also classified as the standard error. That's no different than when statistics are gathered for a presidential poll; however, the statistical significance is based upon the validity of the sample size and the standard error number. Generally speaking, the more data points available the greater the statistical significance. To phrase it in a more scientific way: "The reason larger samples increase your chance of significance is because they more reliably reflect the population mean." There are multiple years worth of data that suggest Andrew Macdonald is less than stellar.

I don't disregard it altogether. It's just not reliable. .
- MJL

That's a direct contradiction. If you regard something you generally don't state that it's unreliable the sentence after. I think advanced stats have their place in the game and are valuable. Are they the only tool- of course not, but they are a valuable and are relatively reliable when gathered correctly. Guys like Kyle Dubas wouldn't be getting hired at the NHL level if it was all dark magic and cheap parlor tricks. It's math, and when done right can help separate/balance what you see with your mind's eye.

How so? Explain why that is the case? How does contextual influences change over time with regards to on ice results, that eliminates the problem of false data?

Break this down for you simply. What factors influence a players on ice results?

Who he plays against.

Who he plays with

Luck

And his own individual talent.

The influence of luck declines naturally over time, plenty of literature out there JFGI. Differences in quality of competition even out over time. In a sample size as small as one season, differences in QoC have an impact as smaller than plus or minus one percent.

The influence of teammates has a major dramatic impact, as they tend to stay constant over larger samples. But when you start building 3 or 4 years of data on a player, you see how he performs with a variety of teammates as well.

The one constant in determining a player on ice results is the player himself. Over time, as the effects of playing against or with bad and good players cancel out, a player's influence over his own results becomes the strongest signal in the big pot of noise that is a team game.

So you're admitting that a players Corsi numbers will be greatly affected by who he plays with, and how good the team he plays on is.

I admitted this from the beginning of our conversation? Don't pretend otherwise.

As far as the last point, that his performance relative to his teammates would either remain poor or drop even further. That's an unprovable assumption that is obviously coming from a biased point of view.

Regher 2011-2012, last full season with a bad buffalo team. Raw Corsi On: -10.88 Adjusted Corsi Relative: -13.9

Regher 2013-2014, first full season with a cup winning Kings team. Raw Corsi On: 6.05. Adjusted Corsi Relative: -12.6

Raw numbers improved, his performance relative to his team did not.

What we also might, and I emphasis might find, is that MacDonald might actually thrive playing on a solid team, with solid puck support and team defense, where he can be properly employed, and utilize the strengths and skill set that he has, for the first time in his career.

The flaws in MacDonald's game might well be minimized on a better team, but they will still be present. MacDonald has failed to produce adequate results under multiple coaching staffs, with multiple teams, and a variety of deployments.

I find the notion that his biggest problem is the team around him to be suspect at best. But I'd welcome a trade to the Kings to find out

If the skid continues I've got to say I'd take a look at league interest in Emery. Love 'em but I think he'll be out of the picture by the time this team is contending. But like I said I would only explore this if we're way out of playoff contention.

There's always degrees of statistical uncertainty - also classified as the standard error. That's no different than when statistics are gathered for a presidential poll; however, the statistical significance is based upon the validity of the sample size and the standard error number. Generally speaking, the more data points available the greater the statistical significance. To phrase it in a more scientific way: "The reason larger samples increase your chance of significance is because they more reliably reflect the population mean." There are multiple years worth of data that suggest Andrew Macdonald is less than stellar.
- flyers20032002

That's what Corsi attempts to do, increase the sample size of data over a statistic such as standard +/-, because shot attempts occur far more often in a game, then a goal does. But just using shot attempts that occur in a team setting, doesn't increase the accuracy of the statistic. Too much false data involved. And that's the problem. The data doesn't suggest that MacDonald is less then stellar. That's confusing an analysis of the data with what the data actually is capable of showing. All the data is capable of showing is what happens on the ice, when MacDonald has been out there. Why it happens is where the analysis comes in. And that analysis is subjective and open to a lot of debate. Is it because MacDonald is less then stellar, or is it because he has been overplayed, and used incorrectly. And has never played on a good team that is solid in it's team play, team defense, and puck support? Corsi just simply isn't capable of showing that any player is less then stellar on it's own.

Have to figure that the next ten games is critical for this team. Anything less then .500 and they're cooked. Might be even if they go .500.
- MJL

I can't figure them -- they've played so poorly, it's hard for the optics of this team to show that they're going to break out of this

They could. But it's terrifying to me that Lines 2-4 don't even create chances, most nights

I would be happy if they're in position to land Crouse. But having that #1 pick in this draft is like a pass to trade for any player you want in the league( sans like 3 guys)
- hereticpride

I'm crazy enough to trade a top pick, but that's just me

I'm crazy enough to trade a top pick, but that's just me
- AllInForFlyers

If you get fair value and force the team to take on a bad contract with it I'd be all ears too.

Gonna be a long 59 games if they stay in that conversation
- AllInForFlyers

You know what they say about American Thanksgiving?

If the skid continues I've got to say I'd take a look at league interest in Emery. Love 'em but I think he'll be out of the picture by the time this team is contending. But like I said I would only explore this if we're way out of playoff contention.
- hereticpride

If they're 7-10 points out at the TDL, I'd be willing to trade anyone over the age of 28. Hell, even if they're withing 7 points, if a contender is offering me a 1st rounder and prospect for Coburn, I'd probably agree to it.

If the skid continues I've got to say I'd take a look at league interest in Emery. Love 'em but I think he'll be out of the picture by the time this team is contending. But like I said I would only explore this if we're way out of playoff contention.
- hereticpride

Agreed -- and I love what Emery brings to an organization. But you gotta listen on everybody.

Hell, I love Coburn. But you gotta listen hard on him, especially at the TDL, if they are playing like this

You know what they say about American Thanksgiving?
- mayorofangrytown

The story of the friendly pilgrims and indians is bullpoop?

You know what they say about American Thanksgiving?
- mayorofangrytown

Ha! Yeah. Their asses are probably done, but it's really hard for me to swallow that right now

That's a direct contradiction. If you regard something you generally don't state that it's unreliable the sentence after. I think advanced stats have their place in the game and are valuable. Are they the only tool- of course not, but they are a valuable and are relatively reliable when gathered correctly. Guys like Kyle Dubas wouldn't be getting hired at the NHL level if it was all dark magic and cheap parlor tricks. It's math, and when done right can help separate/balance what you see with your mind's eye.
- flyers20032002

It's not a contradiction at all. To disregard something is to not consider it or give it any thought at all. My opinion on Corsi as a statistic and what it's capable of doing has come after extensive reading and study on the statistic.
And you really make my point. It's not the science of the statistic that is the issue. It's the data collection that is the issue. No matter how good the science is, it's only as reliable as the data collected is. Shot data is collected and then arbitrarily applied to every player that was on the ice at the time. Whether they were responsible or not.
Trust me, NHL teams aren't using Corsi. They are developing their own proprietary analytics and looking for ways to collect better and more reliable data.

Roger Neilson used to use video review of games, and assign an actual plus/minus to players. And only assign a plus or a minus to a player if it was deserved. That brings a lot of other issues into it, such as a human element. But it's still an improvement.

Vinny and RJ are not going to just start playing better and Read has shown no signs of being the 20 goal scorer we are used to and now he can't even play well defensively. Simmonds has been useless 5 on 5 and with regards to Rinaldo, I get he plays physically but he still leads the team in penalty minutes and we all know the bulls-eye he has with the refs. He really does not make any real contribution to this team. He can't score, he can't pass, and he can't play defense (-9) I know he is a 4th liner but this team needs all the help it can get and because getting rid of Vinny and RJ is most likely out of the question, replacing Rinaldo with just about anybody else is better than do nothing at all.

If the skid continues I've got to say I'd take a look at league interest in Emery. Love 'em but I think he'll be out of the picture by the time this team is contending. But like I said I would only explore this if we're way out of playoff contention.
- hereticpride

They should be looking to deal just about everybody if it helps the future.

Truthfully, there's a lot of reasons to not hold out a lot of hope for a massive turnaround getting them into the playoffs.

I'm a fan, but I'm also a realist. Pittsburgh's one of the best regular-season teams the league has seen over the last 15 years. The Islanders have infused their team with talent through any number of ways, and their goaltending, which had been holding them back, is now stabilized.

The Rags have shut the Flyers out twice in 10 days and taken all six points from them in that period of time

The optics are tough right now -- lot of games left, but that doesn't mean a whole lot when you haven't done much in the games you've played

does it make one less than intelligent if they cant read the debate between mjl and new guy for fear of sudden stroke induced migraine and vertigo?
edit: no offense to either chap, i just cant take posts that are longer than 5 sentences with regularity
- JoeRussomanno

Even Evelyn Wood wouldn't waste her time.

Ha! Yeah. Their asses are probably done, but it's really hard for me to swallow that right now
- AllInForFlyers

I have accepted that they are done. It makes it easier to watch the games and I am really seeing the bright side....getting a top lottery pick.

Next year with a new coach and players in place is what I am looking forward to