I have accepted that they are done. It makes it easier to watch the games and I am really seeing the bright side....getting a top lottery pick.

Next year with a new coach and players in place is what I am looking forward to
- 3flyerkids

What new players? The Flyers have contracts they won't be able to get rid of and definetly noone will take them off the Flyers so thanks mostly in part to Holmgren, this team is screwed for the next few years.

I hope PLind is (frank)ing weeping in bed while watching his heroes Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin self destruct in Jacksonville.

What new players? The Flyers have contracts they won't be able to get rid of and definetly noone will take them off the Flyers so thanks mostly in part to Holmgren, this team is screwed for the next few years.
- Daveflyers36

It's troublesome, but the Flyers just have to make the call on just how bad you want change

You're right -- it will take a minor (frank)ing miracle to dump the two worst contracts they have.

But that doesn't mean you have to play them. You don't even have to buy out Umberger, if you don't want to keep dead cash on the cap. You could just waive him and send him down, sign another player with the 925K you save.

Vinny's a bigger problem, with the NMC. But you scratch his ass, or give him 3-5 minutes a night, until he's had enough and either retires or accepts a trade

No one else is going to help them. So to me, what they really have to decide is just how they want to handle the two worst contracts they have -- play hardball, buy out one or both, or keep them on the roster until their contracts expire

Neither of them would be playing for me, and Umberger would already have been waived. But I'm just a guy on a laptop

It's not a contradiction at all. To disregard something is to not consider it or give it any thought at all. My opinion on Corsi as a statistic and what it's capable of doing has come after extensive reading and study on the statistic.
And you really make my point. It's not the science of the statistic that is the issue. It's the data collection that is the issue. No matter how good the science is, it's only as reliable as the data collected is. Shot data is collected and then arbitrarily applied to every player that was on the ice at the time. Whether they were responsible or not.
Trust me, NHL teams aren't using Corsi. They are developing their own proprietary analytics and looking for ways to collect better and more reliable data.

Roger Neilson used to use video review of games, and assign an actual plus/minus to players. And only assign a plus or a minus to a player if it was deserved. That brings a lot of other issues into it, such as a human element. But it's still an improvement.
- MJL

You ignore, aka disregard, corsi despite it's relevance in the whole picture. I think it's a tool that can be used in conjunction with other aspects of the game like blocked shots, takeaways, and hits. There are definitely teams out there using it as part of the equation.

Be crazy and go all in for the future. G and Lecaviere to Buffalo for 1, 21, 22 and 31. trade Coburn + to Edmonton. Flyers would finish in dead last possibly getting picks 1, 2, 21, 22, 31 in a deep draft.

What new players? The Flyers have contracts they won't be able to get rid of and definetly noone will take them off the Flyers so thanks mostly in part to Holmgren, this team is screwed for the next few years.
- Daveflyers36

If we get a high draft pick I would not be surprised to see Hexy move it with the requirement that a bad contract comes along with it.

Look at a team like Calgary. They have so much cap room that they can easily afford to do that.

Be crazy and go all in for the future. G and Lecaviere to Buffalo for 1, 21, 22 and 31. trade Coburn + to Edmonton. Flyers would finish in dead last possibly getting picks 1, 2, 21, 22, 31 in a deep draft.
- jstross

Won't sniff the playoffs til 2020.

What new players? The Flyers have contracts they won't be able to get rid of and definetly noone will take them off the Flyers so thanks mostly in part to Holmgren, this team is screwed for the next few years.
- Daveflyers36

They will not have the same players on their roster next year. Therefore... NEW players will be on this team..via trade, UFA, or prospects.
Buyouts will also have to happen ( at least one )

Be crazy and go all in for the future. G and Lecaviere to Buffalo for 1, 21, 22 and 31. trade Coburn + to Edmonton. Flyers would finish in dead last possibly getting picks 1, 2, 21, 22, 31 in a deep draft.
- jstross

Never trade a player who is part of the solution just so you can get rid of a problem

Break this down for you simply. What factors influence a players on ice results?

Who he plays against.

Who he plays with

Luck

And his own individual talent.

The influence of luck declines naturally over time, plenty of literature out there JFGI. Differences in quality of competition even out over time. In a sample size as small as one season, differences in QoC have an impact as smaller than plus or minus one percent.

The influence of teammates has a major dramatic impact, as they tend to stay constant over larger samples. But when you start building 3 or 4 years of data on a player, you see how he performs with a variety of teammates as well.

The one constant in determining a player on ice results is the player himself. Over time, as the effects of playing against or with bad and good players cancel out, a player's influence over his own results becomes the strongest signal in the big pot of noise that is a team game.


- AndrewD

The situations a player plays in such as zone starts also influences the numbers. You omitted that. It is impossible for the effects of playing against or with bad and good players to cancel out. That is a fallacy. Unless you believe that the effects on data from one player out on the ice, can overcome the effects of the other nine over time. Not possible. It could be the opposite. As the sample size is increased, the false data can pile higher and higher.
And what you overlook is that is a player stays in the same situations, where the team game doesn't improve, then the same results can happen year after year. This is where the analysis comes in.

I admitted this from the beginning of our conversation? Don't pretend otherwise.


- AndrewD

At least we are making some progress to understanding Corsi and what it's capable of showing then.

Regher 2011-2012, last full season with a bad buffalo team. Raw Corsi On: -10.88 Adjusted Corsi Relative: -13.9

Regher 2013-2014, first full season with a cup winning Kings team. Raw Corsi On: 6.05. Adjusted Corsi Relative: -12.6
Raw numbers improved, his performance relative to his team did not.


- AndrewD

I'll ask a few rhetorical questions that explain this. Regehr raw corsi numbers increased dramatically in LA versus Buffalo. Did Regehr become a better player as soon as he put on the LA sweater? And why would a players relative Corsi stay pretty much the same when his raw Corsi on number dramatically improved.

Lastly, I would think, or at least hope that you know that just because that the way the numbers played out with Regehr, doesn't mean the same would happen with MacDonald.

The flaws in MacDonald's game might well be minimized on a better team, but they will still be present. MacDonald has failed to produce adequate results under multiple coaching staffs, with multiple teams, and a variety of deployments.

I find the notion that his biggest problem is the team around him to be suspect at best. But I'd welcome a trade to the Kings to find out
- AndrewD

All defenseman, other then the very best of NHL defenseman have some flaws in their game. That you should know. The question is what skills a defenseman bring to the ice that can help a team. And if they are used correctly, and get the proper support, they can be effective. That is the case with MacDonald.

One thing is certain. In MacDonald's entire career, he has yet to play in a situation that is supportive for a player of his caliber. He's been overplayed and misused in his entire career. To dismiss that as a big factor in the results is naive. He;s a 2nd pair defenseman that has been played like a top pair defenseman. On poor 5 on 5 possession teams.
If and when we see MacDonald in a better situation, and used properly, then we'll have a better idea of what kind of player he'll be long term. But the talent and skill level is evident.

You state that MacDonald was failed to produce adequate results under multiple coaching staffs, with multiple teams, and a variety of deployments. Let's start with some contradictions. You state that a larger sample size eliminates the effects of who a player plays with, or against, but yet MacDonald has yet to play a full season as a Flyers. Small sample size as a Flyer.

I'm wondering why a team like the Islanders played MacDonald over 25 minutes a game, if he failed to produce, and the results were so poor? Why the Flyers traded for MacDonald and signed him to a long term deal, if he's failed to produce everywhere he has been? There must be some reason why multiple organizations thought enough of the player, to utilize him as they have.

You ignore, aka disregard, corsi despite it's relevance in the whole picture. I think it's a tool that can be used in conjunction with other aspects of the game like blocked shots, takeaways, and hits. There are definitely teams out there using it as part of the equation.
- flyers20032002

Again, I don't ignore or disregard Corsi. I think it's insightful as a team statistic, because the issue of false data is removed. But it's flawed for individual players. I think teams are using the science of Corsi and improving on it. But they aren't using the same Corsi we are for players. They have better data collection methods.

If we get a high draft pick I would not be surprised to see Hexy move it with the requirement that a bad contract comes along with it.

Look at a team like Calgary. They have so much cap room that they can easily afford to do that.
- hereticpride

They should be open to that

It's troublesome, but the Flyers just have to make the call on just how bad you want change

You're right -- it will take a minor (frank)ing miracle to dump the two worst contracts they have.

But that doesn't mean you have to play them. You don't even have to buy out Umberger, if you don't want to keep dead cash on the cap. You could just waive him and send him down, sign another player with the 925K you save.

Vinny's a bigger problem, with the NMC. But you scratch his ass, or give him 3-5 minutes a night, until he's had enough and either retires or accepts a trade

No one else is going to help them. So to me, what they really have to decide is just how they want to handle the two worst contracts they have -- play hardball, buy out one or both, or keep them on the roster until their contracts expire

Neither of them would be playing for me, and Umberger would already have been waived. But I'm just a guy on a laptop
- AllInForFlyers

waiving and demoting Umberger gets you 925K of cap space. Buying him out gets you 3M in cap space.

Be crazy and go all in for the future. G and Lecaviere to Buffalo for 1, 21, 22 and 31. trade Coburn + to Edmonton. Flyers would finish in dead last possibly getting picks 1, 2, 21, 22, 31 in a deep draft.
- jstross

This is Sixerish!

I hope PLind is (frank)ing weeping in bed while watching his heroes Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin self destruct in Jacksonville.
- PhillySportsGuy

Dont forget Rangerdanger94

Dont forget Rangerdanger94
- KINGKENZO

He's molding their HOF busts as we speak

He's molding their HOF busts as we speak
- PhillySportsGuy

I dozed off 8 pages ago, who did what to the who now?

waiving and demoting Umberger gets you 925K of cap space. Buying him out gets you 3M in cap space.
- MJL

Yeah -- since I've been pushing that for a month now, I think pretty much everybody is aware that I know that

I dozed off 8 pages ago, who did what to the who now?
- Jsaquella

Giants blew a big lead to the Jags today. PLind and RangerDanger love Eli Manning. They thinks he's the first coming of Jesus

Giants blew a big lead to the Jags today. PLind and RangerDanger love Eli Manning. They thinks he's the first coming of Jesus
- PhillySportsGuy

Oh, good. I'm going back to sleep

Giants blew a big lead to the Jags today. PLind and RangerDanger love Eli Manning. They thinks he's the first coming of Jesus
- PhillySportsGuy

your boy Bell got it done again.

The situations a player plays in such as zone starts also influences the numbers. You omitted that. It is impossible for the effects of playing against or with bad and good players to cancel out. That is a fallacy. Unless you believe that the effects on data from one player out on the ice, can overcome the effects of the other nine over time. Not possible. It could be the opposite. As the sample size is increased, the false data can pile higher and higher.
And what you overlook is that is a player stays in the same situations, where the team game doesn't improve, then the same results can happen year after year. This is where the analysis comes in.




At least we are making some progress to understanding Corsi and what it's capable of showing then.




I'll ask a few rhetorical questions that explain this. Regehr raw corsi numbers increased dramatically in LA versus Buffalo. Did Regehr become a better player as soon as he put on the LA sweater? And why would a players relative Corsi stay pretty much the same when his raw Corsi on number dramatically improved.

Lastly, I would think, or at least hope that you know that just because that the way the numbers played out with Regehr, doesn't mean the same would happen with MacDonald.




All defenseman, other then the very best of NHL defenseman have some flaws in their game. That you should know. The question is what skills a defenseman bring to the ice that can help a team. And if they are used correctly, and get the proper support, they can be effective. That is the case with MacDonald.

One thing is certain. In MacDonald's entire career, he has yet to play in a situation that is supportive for a player of his caliber. He's been overplayed and misused in his entire career. To dismiss that as a big factor in the results is naive. He;s a 2nd pair defenseman that has been played like a top pair defenseman. On poor 5 on 5 possession teams.
If and when we see MacDonald in a better situation, and used properly, then we'll have a better idea of what kind of player he'll be long term. But the talent and skill level is evident.

You state that MacDonald was failed to produce adequate results under multiple coaching staffs, with multiple teams, and a variety of deployments. Let's start with some contradictions. You state that a larger sample size eliminates the effects of who a player plays with, or against, but yet MacDonald has yet to play a full season as a Flyers. Small sample size as a Flyer.

I'm wondering why a team like the Islanders played MacDonald over 25 minutes a game, if he failed to produce, and the results were so poor? Why the Flyers traded for MacDonald and signed him to a long term deal, if he's failed to produce everywhere he has been? There must be some reason why multiple organizations thought enough of the player, to utilize him as they have.
- MJL

Brian strait played 21 minutes Friday night. He'll be on waivers likely by Christmas if you want him.

I dozed off 8 pages ago, who did what to the who now?
- Jsaquella

ha ha...some people sure know how to take the fun out of hockey.

What the Flyers need and have needed since Pronger's injury are a #1 and #2 defenseman. Even without Pronger's injury and Timmonen's health concerns they were both approaching 40 and had a lot of hard miles on them. Instead of having the foresight to plan for this the Flyers have tried to patch things up by putting a lot of money and years (in MacD's case) into second (and some would say 3rd or 4th) tier players...MacD, Schenn, Grossman. For far less money and less commitment Hextall has been able to get pretty much the same performance out of guys like Delzotto, Schultz and Colaiacovo with very little money and almost no commitment. I don't care what the stats show. I don't care if MacD would perform better in a different situation. What I care about is that the team sucks now and there's very little anyone can do about it. The management didn't plan ahead. They are hamstrung because of the amount of money they have handed out and the length of contracts they have given players.

He could have tried akeson with more skilled line mates at least for a spell to see what he could do. Instead, he stuck him on the 4th line with plugs for 5 minutes a night while giving the rest of the vets 15 minutes who produced nothing. He got virtually no chance. Which is (frank)ing stupid. He may never make it anywhere but after having him this long in the organization why not see what you have? (frank)ing stupid.

The team sucks and the coaching sucks.

waiving and demoting Umberger gets you 925K of cap space. Buying him out gets you 3M in cap space.
- MJL

I would waive him and bring up Leier. Then explore the possibility of a buyout in the offseason. Leier is 3rd on the Phantoms in points and 1st in goals. Maybe he could spark Coots and Read a little?

Schenn G Jake
Raffl Laughton Simmonds
Leier Coots Read
PEB Vinny Rinaldo

I'm still not crazy about that 4th line. When is White supposed to be healthy? White-PEB-Vinny might look decent.