Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Tampa Not Too Tired to Stifle Flyers, 3-1; Forsberg Wrap
- bmeltzer

In the quest to load up on points tonight was a failure.

Of course, the Flyers shouldn't have been counting on getting points tonight. Tampa is a team that gives the Flyers absolute fits, whether they are good or bad.

Still no idea how the Flyers can't adjust their strategy over the years against teams that forecheck well. Far too many blind passes, far too many dump & chase plays where the Lightning were in great position to simply take possession.

They can still make this a successful month, but they have to at least compete. Tonight they didn't. If they don't have at least 37-40 points when we hit New Year's Day, they're going to need to start selling.

If they can't get 10 out of 14 remaining points this month, they're toast. At that point there's no reason to hang on to the veterans who aren't going to be key contributors in 2-3 years.

If they're sitting at 35 points or less come January 1st, the goal needs to shift from making a playoff push to adding draft picks for this June and next June. There will be too much ground to make up and not enough games to do so.

i cant lie. when i think about it logically, and compare it to other sports, it doesnt really hold water as to its legitimacy. i would never want it in the playoffs, even if its the one thing fleury is actually good at in high pressure situations.

but as a fan, i still cant shake the notion that i find it beyond entertaining. i just sat through 20 minutes of it, to award the extra point to the florida panthers in a game in which i really have no ties. and it was worth it to me.

i wouldnt be opposed to a period of 3 on 3 before it though.
- stayinthefnnet

It's flawed, but better than ending a game in a tie.

Want to play something that ends in a tie? Tic Tac Toe is the game. And how much fun that is.

The hope essentially has to be that the dcore is at a good enough level by the team G and V have some good years left.

That is the hope. Sell the rest of the BS that wont be here by that time, even if that means being "less competitive". There are some pieces that at the deadline should be able to carry some value.

I don't think the Flyers find any takers for Umberger or Wheels. That will have to be a buy-out. I would however look very strongly at trying to unload the obligation to MacDonald. Schultz may be able to get you something of value in terms of a draft pick.

For all the inconsistency in Coburn's career, I would personally like to keep him. He does not need a new contract next season, and frankly imo is the best d-man the Flyers have other than maybe Streit, who is aging.

When coming down to Grossmann and Schenn, I personally find Grossmann to be a much better player. He probably will not be around when the team is ready to establish itself as an upper tier club but I would keep him. The team should not peg a starting line-up spot to one of the kids next season. FA class for next season is dreadful as well. For Schenn, I don't know if you find much if any takers out there unfortunately.

So that leaves you Schultz and maybe MacDonald.

As much as I would personally like to see a bigger turnover toward youth now, and a change from the poop product employed.

I do think there will be one more season after this to ride out. Its not a quick fix.

That following year boasts an incredibly impressive FA class, even if not all the players hit that status. The Flyers also have quite a few players hitting UFA at the time, with Couturier and B Schenn needing new deals as RFA's.

Voracek, Coburn, and if they are still around Grossmann/Luke Schenn will all hit UFA status.

I am starting to think, that while obviously if a good deal comes along you make it.. However if the best time to make the important changes to the line-up are not this year, but next. At the most opportune moment.

It's flawed, but better than ending a game in a tie.

Want to play something that ends in a tie? Tic Tac Toe is the game. And how much fun that is.
- wolfhounds

exactly. i dont like ties.

So anyway, just because I finished a long eve and want to ramble a touch. Nutter's game plan.

This year/deadline.
1. You try as hell to unload Happy Meal. I do have to wonder, and maybe its just optimism. That Edmonton will be too hungry for defensive help, and to make a move. Even if the Flyers get little back, I would be in favour of freeing themselves of the obligation to MacDonald.

2. Make a move to deal Schultz at the deadline. Its not much, but he has been a steady presence and another team would have interest for a depth defenseman in the playoffs.

3. Buy-out both Umberger and LeCavalier. While I realise #18 can still provide a "warm body" type of play and not hurt you, those minutes should go to a player that actually contributes. Or at the very least an individual who has a chance at growing in the league, a young player. No minutes should go to someone declining, with essentially zero chance of growth past a pedestrian level. No explanation needed for LeCavalier.

Next off-season:
1. The team being unable to find a taker for Luke Schenn, deals Grossmann at the deadline to a playoff bound team, as he is a UFA next season and has little risk. Luke walks at the end of the year.

2. Coburn as well, at this time is dealt.

As much as I would personally like to see a bigger turnover toward youth now, and a change from the poop product employed.

I do think there will be one more season after this to ride out. Its not a quick fix.

That following year boasts an incredibly impressive FA class, even if not all the players hit that status. The Flyers also have quite a few players hitting UFA at the time, with Couturier and B Schenn needing new deals as RFA's.

Voracek, Coburn, and if they are still around Grossmann/Luke Schenn will all hit UFA status.

I am starting to think, that while obviously if a good deal comes along you make it.. However if the best time to make the important changes to the line-up are not this year, but next. At the most opportune moment.
- flyer_nutter

Can't count on those good players making it to UFA, plus the team will have to fork out cash for the Voracek, Couturier & B. Schenn extensions.

I'd also rather try to get picks for 2015, because it's considered a very deep draft.

In some cases, it is better to wait to move out some of the dead weight-For instance, the only way I'd buy out Umberger is if they absolutely needed the cap space to add a key piece for the long haul. otherwise wait a year and lessen the impact of the buy out.

Same for Vinny. I'd still try like Hell to trade him, and even consider eating cash or adding an asset to the deal to be rid of him.

But, in terms of defense, there's not a single guy I'd hesitate to move for the right price. I think that anyone of the 8 guys now on the roster could land you a pick.

Can't count on those good players making it to UFA, plus the team will have to fork out cash for the Voracek, Couturier & B. Schenn extensions.

I'd also rather try to get picks for 2015, because it's considered a very deep draft.

In some cases, it is better to wait to move out some of the dead weight-For instance, the only way I'd buy out Umberger is if they absolutely needed the cap space to add a key piece for the long haul. otherwise wait a year and lessen the impact of the buy out.

Same for Vinny. I'd still try like Hell to trade him, and even consider eating cash or adding an asset to the deal to be rid of him.

But, in terms of defense, there's not a single guy I'd hesitate to move for the right price. I think that anyone of the 8 guys now on the roster could land you a pick.
- Jsaquella

I honestly don't think Luke Schenn gets you poop. Especially with the contract not ending this summer. Not sure if MDZ has much trade value as well, and sitting on the bench isn't helping his cause.

I understand about getting picks for 2015. DO however think, perhaps trying to make swift changes now, may be better implemented in a two year plan. To do so at the opportune moments as highlighted in my above BS.

Backup goalie, second night of a back to back. No problem for the Lightning.

A week before Christmas this team sits 15th in a 16 team conference. Pathetic any way you slice it.

Tampa has more talent. There's no getting around it.

Did you notice how their D can push the play and how fast Tampa plays, in general?

I'm guessing the Flyers would have beaten quite a few teams playing, even as they did last night.

The Flyers weren't bad. They just don't have the talent to hang with Tampa and the better teams.

Can't count on those good players making it to UFA, plus the team will have to fork out cash for the Voracek, Couturier & B. Schenn extensions.

I'd also rather try to get picks for 2015, because it's considered a very deep draft.

In some cases, it is better to wait to move out some of the dead weight-For instance, the only way I'd buy out Umberger is if they absolutely needed the cap space to add a key piece for the long haul. otherwise wait a year and lessen the impact of the buy out.

Same for Vinny. I'd still try like Hell to trade him, and even consider eating cash or adding an asset to the deal to be rid of him.

But, in terms of defense, there's not a single guy I'd hesitate to move for the right price. I think that anyone of the 8 guys now on the roster could land you a pick.
- Jsaquella

This

Tampa has more talent. There's no getting around it.

Did you notice how their D can push the play and how fast Tampa plays, in general?

I'm guessing the Flyers would have beaten quite a few teams playing, even as they did last night.

The Flyers weren't bad. They just don't have the talent to hang with Tampa and the better teams.
- johndewar

Who has more talent? Buffalo or the Flyers?

Who has more talent? Buffalo or the Flyers?
- PLindbergh31

Tough call
Giroux & Voracek give the Flyers the edge now, but I'd rather have their prospects, 2015 picks and cap situation by far

Tampa has more talent. There's no getting around it.

Did you notice how their D can push the play and how fast Tampa plays, in general?

I'm guessing the Flyers would have beaten quite a few teams playing, even as they did last night.

The Flyers weren't bad. They just don't have the talent to hang with Tampa and the better teams.
- johndewar

A lot of it is confidence for TB, where the Flyers just try poop a lot of the time - cross-ice passes through traffic in their own zone, blind clears - and the passes on the rush that are just a bit 'off' have to be frustrating as hell.

Mason's doing all he can to keep the Flyers in these games. He owes the posts a good rubdown for the help they gave him in the 1st last night.

I honestly don't think Luke Schenn gets you poop. Especially with the contract not ending this summer. Not sure if MDZ has much trade value as well, and sitting on the bench isn't helping his cause.

I understand about getting picks for 2015. DO however think, perhaps trying to make swift changes now, may be better implemented in a two year plan. To do so at the opportune moments as highlighted in my above BS.
- flyer_nutter

I'm fairly confident they could get a 3rd rounder for Luke Schenn.

Your plan, especially the buyouts, leaves the Flyers with 6 years of dead cap space for Vinny & 4 years for Umberger. The first 3 years of Lecavalier buy out is $2.88mm for 2 years & $2.3mm for the third. Then 3 years of near $900k

A lot of it is confidence for TB, where the Flyers just try poop a lot of the time - cross-ice passes through traffic in their own zone, blind clears - and the passes on the rush that are just a bit 'off' have to be frustrating as hell.

Mason's doing all he can to keep the Flyers in these games. He owes the posts a good rubdown for the help they gave him in the 1st last night.
- tangent_man

My fear is Mason will have nervous breakdown soon playing behind this team.

Tampa has more talent. There's no getting around it.

Did you notice how their D can push the play and how fast Tampa plays, in general?

I'm guessing the Flyers would have beaten quite a few teams playing, even as they did last night.

The Flyers weren't bad. They just don't have the talent to hang with Tampa and the better teams.
- johndewar

Tampa is more talented, but the Flyers made a lot of dumb mistakes yesterday.

Who has more talent? Buffalo or the Flyers?
- PLindbergh31

The Flyers.

Tampa is more talented, but the Flyers made a lot of dumb mistakes yesterday.
- Jsaquella

The Flyers have to play a perfect game and then some to beat Tampa.

When analysis invokes "dumb mistakes" on such a frequent basis, that should really translate into "talent isn't there".

My fear is Mason will have nervous breakdown soon playing behind this team.
- BiggE

Really, that's the test for him this year - if he can keep his composure with these guys in front of him, imagine how he'll play when they put together a real team.

I'm fairly confident they could get a 3rd rounder for Luke Schenn.

Your plan, especially the buyouts, leaves the Flyers with 6 years of dead cap space for Vinny & 4 years for Umberger. The first 3 years of Lecavalier buy out is $2.88mm for 2 years & $2.3mm for the third. Then 3 years of near $900k
- Jsaquella

Re VLC & RJ:

Best hope is trading VLC after July 2nd. Even if they have to eat 40% of the deal, at least then the 3 year cap hit is only 1.8 mil and the other team is only paying him (
5.1 mil over 3 years. For RJ, they will likely need to carry him for one more year as either a 4th liner or 13th forward and then buy him out. The cap penalty then would only be 1.5 mil for 2 seasons.

Either way, it sucks

Really, that's the test for him this year - if he can keep his composure with these guys in front of him, imagine how he'll play when they put together a real team.


- tangent_man

Thats the lifeline I'm holding onto!

Re VLC & RJ:

Best hope is trading VLC after July 2nd. Even if they have to eat 40% of the deal, at least then the 3 year cap hit is only 1.8 mil and the other team is only paying him (
5.1 mil over 3 years. For RJ, they will likely need to carry him for one more year as either a 4th liner or 13th forward and then buy him out. The cap penalty then would only be 1.5 mil for 2 seasons.

Either way, it sucks
- BiggE

Agreed. It might even be better to carry Lecavalier for a couple years, if they can't deal him

The Flyers have to play a perfect game and then some to beat Tampa.

When analysis invokes "dumb mistakes" on such a frequent basis, that should really translate into "talent isn't there".
- johndewar

I don't disagree, but it wasn't a lack of talent when Giroux threw the puck up the middle & had it picked off, or when Grossmann blindly fired the puck across his own zone, which led to a glorious chance that loudly hit the post.

Just some thoughts that hit me last night.

- Coburn should be traded at the deadline. I understand what he does here but I think he could bring value back to help this team moving forward. I would almost rather take a chance trying to get Bogossian from WPG. i know the injury history but he at least has the top pairing skill set.

- I hope to see Ryan White play Thursday. This tem has no nastiness in their game. White has some skill and can skate. Vandevelde is providing nothing at this time.

- I think moving Read at the deadline to try and get a more skilled and younger winger would be a good idea. I know MJL thinks Read has too much value here to move but at this time the Flyers need to upgrade skill. Read has value to a playoff teams and contenders. A bubble team can move him if it helps upgrade the teams skill. Also I think with Laughton, Couturier, Rinadlo, White, Raffl, Giroux, Bellemare there are enough penalty killers to take his minutes on PK.

- I hope Hextall is looking for smart trades. I saw Columbus and Buffalo swaped ome prospects. Low risk possible solid reward move.

- MacDonald can be moved. I defended the move last year but now he just seems to give you really nothing. I would rather get Del Zotto in there as he at least brings a much needed skill set.


You might agree or disagree but just some things i thought about last night