And yet if you ask the players who practice with him and play against him, they will tell you that it is very hard to get off a QUALITY shot against him -- regardless of where you are on the ice -- because he is so damn strong and has a heavy stick. Steve Mason said even last night, once the transcribed portion of the postgame interviews were done and it was more conversation than interview, that Grossmann is a very intelligent and underrated defender.

While I like and respect Charlie O'Connor and his work, I will take the word of the guys who play the game and the pro scouts whose livelihoods depend on knowing who can actually play and who can't.
- bmeltzer

That's the problem with the stats community, they see things in black and white. Sometimes I wonder if they actually watch the game! A link to an article the other day on Grossmann was posted in which the article said that Grossmann has been on the ice for 5 goals against in the last 5 games. I would think the author would actually watch the game and see if Grossmann was at fault for those goals. He was at fault for only one of the goals scored.

The thing with Couturier is this. Will he ever be a dynamic enough player to a) truly raise the game of his wingers, and b) provide a 2nd line that the opposing coach needs to be wary of; that can take pressure off of the G line?

I know guys on this board really love him. And I think he is a very, very good 3rd line guy. But I just haven't seen anything that suggests that if you are down a goal in a game 7, you could put his line out there and really feel good about your chances.

That is the problem with the forward group on this team. They are a one-line team, with 2 other lines that can get hot for a game or two but cannot sustain that success. They have a collection of nice individual pieces, but collectively they don't complement each other well.
- TheGreat28

One, Couturier doesn't need to be a a player who rasies the game of other players to be an effective 2nd line center. I see no reason why he can't be part of a successful 2nd NHL scoring line. A line is about all 3 players on it, not just one player. That the Flyers other lines are inconsistent certainly doesn't just fall on Couturier. In fact I would argue that his linemates have been holding him back this season.

I think it is already over for those guys now. You don't see too many winning teams with top 4 defenders who can't move the puck effectively. That's what makes the Flyers so infuriating is that they keep going against the trend. Its one of the things that concern me about Morin. Watching him in the WJC, he didn't exactly move the puck better than Grossmann does now. It is comical to me though that when Morin made a short pass or chipped it out the zone it was a small smart efficient play according to flyers fans but when Grossmann does the same thing he sucks.
- psuhockey

This is a by product of the clear negative bias that many have come to have against Grossmann imo. I've looked at his play pretty closely and while he's no Erik Karlsson, he's a far better skater and puck mover than many give him credit for. I can show video examples of him making hustle plays, beating opposing playrs to loose pucks and winning races back to defend...can also show you many many plays where he makes good basic passes from within the defensive zone or even skates it out...when there's a lack of support from his mates is when things tend to go awry with Grossmann.

Deep stats are the salt and pepper of the player analysis meal. They are a nice addition but aren't the meat and potatoes of the meal. Good old fashioned observation and subjective analysis by experienced professional hockey people is still the most important part, imho.
- Scoob

You must have missed Morin's outstanding length of the ice breakout pass in the gold medal game.





Plays like this are why Grossmann gives up so many more shot attempts than the other defensmen.
- Feanor

And this is a big reason why I feel blocked shots is an insanely overrated category. Sure it might reflect that you get a lot of D zone starts or PK time. But it 100% means youre not getting the puck out of your zone effectively.

Absolutely -- somebody needs to drop 60 points in that 2C role. You are dead-on
- AllInForFlyers

Unrealistic expectations are part of the problem. Last year in the entire NHL, there were 40 centers who scored 50 or more points. There are 30 teams in the League. 60 points is first line center territory. 60 points for a 2nd line center would be an outstanding point total. Reality is, if Couturier can score 50 points, while continuing to play a solid all around game, that gives the Flyers a hell of a 1-2 punch up the middle.

Yeah, I agree the game hasn't changed that much. Our understanding of the game, however, is another story.

Once this curtain gets pulled off the D-Dman Wizard of Oz, I think it's going to be over for guys like Grossmann as top-4 players. As utility-players/specialists, sure... but the tolerance for that extra 10-15 seconds of zone time for the opposition on poor exits, failed clears, chasing the puck, preventable icing is going to wane big time.
- Tomahawk

But there's also an equallly undeniable flip side:

Identify defensemen who can pin guys to the boards as consistently and efficiently as he does.... it doesn't get registered as a hit and it requires a teammate to come dig out out the puck and get it out of the zone. But that's something that the hockey people all look at.

Find defensemen who are as hard to knock off the puck when he has it on his stick. Grossmann rarely coughs up pucks via opposition takeaways. That's the flip side of him not being a very good passer.

Go find defensemen who do what I described earlier: being able to lean on or tie a guy up just enough with their positioning and strength that a shot -- even one from an otherwise dangerous area-- becomes one the goalie can make a save he'll come up with most of the time.

Such defensemen are ALL NHL regulars and they will still have a role on NHL teams for years to come. It's not that easy of a role to perform or fill and he performs those tasks well. The proof is the level respect he gets from those who play, coach and scout the league.

No one would call him a star. But to call him a "disaster" is untrue and disrespectful to the point of hurting one's one credibility.

He played earlier in the year with Simmonds and Read. Both have had offensive success in the league, but floundered with Couts. Some of it was the role. Some of it is that Berube didn't give them enough time together. But a lot of this has to fall on Couturier too. His lack of assists is a little alarming.
- TheGreat28

He's played the majority of the season with Read and Umberger on his wing. Read has all of 2 ES goals this season. Umberger has only recently began to score. I think the alarm is a false alarm.

Unrealistic expectations are part of the problem. Last year in the entire NHL, there were 40 centers who scored 50 or more points. There are 30 teams in the League. 60 points is first line center territory. 60 points for a 2nd line center would be an outstanding point total. Reality is, if Couturier can score 50 points, while continuing to play a solid all around game, that gives the Flyers a hell of a 1-2 punch up the middle.
- MJL

Who let you out of the penalty box ?

That's the problem with the stats community, they see things in black and white. Sometimes I wonder if they actually watch the game! A link to an article the other day on Grossmann was posted in which the article said that Grossmann has been on the ice for 5 goals against in the last 5 games. I would think the author would actually watch the game and see if Grossmann was at fault for those goals. He was at fault for only one of the goals scored.
- MJL

Yep... most CORSI based stats have a similar flaw in that people assume a particular player on the ice is responsible for the given data. CORSI based stats would be better if adjusted by actual visual verification of which player(s) was the actual cause of shots or scoring chances for or against rather than just assuming culpability based on a player being somewhere on the ice at the time.

But there's also an equallly undeniable flip side:

Identify defensemen who can pin guys to the boards as consistently and efficiently as he does.... it doesn't get registered as a hit and it requires a teammate to come dig out out the puck and get it out of the zone. But that's something that the hockey people all look at.

Find defensemen who are as hard to knock off the puck when he has it on his stick. Grossmann rarely coughs up pucks via opposition takeaways. That's the flip side of him not being a very good passer.

Go find defensemen who do what I described earlier: being able to lean on or tie a guy up just enough with their positioning and strength that a shot -- even one from an otherwise dangerous area-- becomes one the goalie can make a save he'll come up with most of the time.

Such defensemen are ALL NHL regulars and they will still have a role on NHL teams for years to come. It's not that easy of a role to perform or fill and he performs those tasks well. The proof is the level respect he gets from those who play, coach and scout the league.

No one would call him a star. But to call him a "disaster" is untrue and disrespectful to the point of hurting one's one credibility.
- bmeltzer

The belief of the stats community is that Grossmann is bailed out by the goaltenders high SV%. Instead of realizing that a big part of that is how Grossmann limits quality scoring chances. You can only know that by watching the game.

That's the problem with the stats community, they see things in black and white. Sometimes I wonder if they actually watch the game! A link to an article the other day on Grossmann was posted in which the article said that Grossmann has been on the ice for 5 goals against in the last 5 games. I would think the author would actually watch the game and see if Grossmann was at fault for those goals. He was at fault for only one of the goals scored.
- MJL

That was always my beef with Subban (aside from his attitude). His positioning was horrible, he would constantly blow coverages, and he was a puck hog on the ice. But hey, since Price bailed him out most of the time, his stats showed up nice on the paper, and he could score... that's all that mattered to some people.

Granted, he has gotten a little better with those things (minus the puck hog aspect). But I must have been watching a different player than 99.9% of Habs fans an 90% of other fans across the league.

People want to include him in a class with Weber, Suter, Doughty, OEL, Keith, Pietrangelo, Kronwall... I just don't see it when I watch him play. He can handle a puck better than a lot of forwards in the league.. ok... but the player I see on the ice, is NOT a player I want on the Flyers. And I HATE the fact that he got the Norris just because he can score... they have perverted the Norris so much in recent years that it's a joke.

If I was able to, I wish I could go back and tally the amount of times Price saved him from a -, and how many times his partner had to cover his spot for him (not a shift mind you.. straight up blown coverage)...

Hey.. to each their own.. A lot of people love him... have at it.. not me.

Deep stats are the salt and pepper of the player analysis meal. They are a nice addition but aren't the meat and potatoes of the meal. Good old fashioned observation and subjective analysis by experienced professional hockey people is still the most important part, imho.
- Scoob

Amen Scoob! Analytics should be about 5% of the puzzle.

But there's also an equallly undeniable flip side:

Identify defensemen who can pin guys to the boards as consistently and efficiently as he does.... it doesn't get registered as a hit and it requires a teammate to come dig out out the puck and get it out of the zone. But that's something that the hockey people all look at.

Find defensemen who are as hard to knock off the puck when he has it on his stick. Grossmann rarely coughs up pucks via opposition takeaways. That's the flip side of him not being a very good passer.

Go find defensemen who do what I described earlier: being able to lean on or tie a guy up just enough with their positioning and strength that a shot -- even one from an otherwise dangerous area-- becomes one the goalie can make a save he'll come up with most of the time.

Such defensemen are ALL NHL regulars and they will still have a role on NHL teams for years to come. It's not that easy of a role to perform or fill and he performs those tasks well. The proof is the level respect he gets from those who play, coach and scout the league.

No one would call him a star. But to call him a "disaster" is untrue and disrespectful to the point of hurting one's one credibility.
- bmeltzer

There are players that can do all those things above you listed but can also execute basic hockey players with a sufficient degree of consistency.

We're only talking about the guys who can't here.

Not saying the future of the NHL is 7 Keith Yandle's on every team, just that ham-handed pylons are about to go extinct.

(these same lifers and professionals also believed that enforcers kept the other team honest for how many decades?)

When there's a lack of support from his mates is when things tend to go awry with Grossmann.
- exlund

Bingo. If teammates are too stationary or the gap is too big -- things the Flyers as a TEAM are far too often guilty of -- the areas that are the weaker aspects of his game get exposed.

In the second half of last season, Grossmann actually had decent advanced stats. He hadn't changed as a player. The Flyers as a team were more committed to skating, cutting the gaps, etc.

That's also how they ran off that succession of wins in the home-and-home sweep of the Penguins and then beating the Hawks, Stars (who played a good game that night) and Blues in succession before a narrow loss to LA.

It's always about what the team and everyone on the ice is doing. Grossmann is a role player who does some things well and some things not so well. When the unit is collectively doing well, he is able to work within his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

No one who needs to be "carried" gets to 500+ plus NHL games with all the competition for jobs out there.

Yep... most CORSI based stats have a similar flaw in that people assume a particular player on the ice is responsible for the given data. CORSI based stats would be better if adjusted by actual visual verification of which player(s) was the actual cause of shots or scoring chances for or against rather than just assuming culpability based on a player being somewhere on the ice at the time.
- exlund

Absolutely, it's what makes Corsi an unreliable stat for lookng at individual players. The data is suspect. A player could play his shift perfectly, and come off a -3 in shot differential for his shfit. As much as 40% of Corsi data is false data.

There are players that can do all those things above you listed but can also execute basic hockey players with a sufficient degree of consistency.

We're only talking about the guys who can't here.
- Tomahawk

Grossmann isn't one of those players.

He makes inaccurate passes, fails on clears, and ices the puck all the time. These errors all result in extra zone time and shots for the opposition.

The belief of the stats community is that Grossmann is bailed out by the goaltenders high SV%. Instead of realizing that a big part of that is how Grossmann limits quality scoring chances. You can only know that by watching the game.
- MJL

And Grossmann has just all of a sudden started doing that this season? Because the goalies have never had particularly high SV%'s with him on the ice in the rest of his career.

There are players that can do all those things above you listed but can also execute basic hockey players with a sufficient degree of consistency.

We're only talking about the guys who can't here.

Not saying the future of the NHL is 7 Keith Yandle's on every team, just that ham-handed pylons are about to go extinct.
- Tomahawk

Ham-handed pylons don't get to play as NHL regulars for lengthy careers. They have to have something on the ball and know what they are doing out there. Simply being big isn't enough.

For example, if the Flyers could simply plug in Oliver Lauridsen for a fraction of the salary they pay Grossmann, they would have done it two years ago.

Grossmann isn't one of those players.
- exlund

http://pattisonave.com/fl...one-exit-data-games-1-20/

He's by far the worst in the top-6 at getting the puck out of the zone successfully -- even worse at an exit that sees the team retain possession. Luke Schenn is way ahead of him.

And Grossmann has just all of a sudden started doing that this season? Because the goalies have never had particularly high SV%'s with him on the ice in the rest of his career.
- Feanor

Thos stats are going to vary greatly from season to season, and month to month. The only way to truly know is to watch the game. Analystics and stats should count for about 5% of the information gathered in analysis of a player. And when looking at a player like Grossmann, they should be thrown out the window altogether.

http://pattisonave.com/fl...one-exit-data-games-1-20/

He's by far the worst in the top-6 at getting the puck out of the zone successfully -- even worse at an exit that sees the team retain possession. Luke Schenn is way ahead of him.
- Tomahawk

A perfect example of why these stats are so incredibly suspect. Is a successful zone exit only the responsibility of a defenseman? The only time a failed attempt should be held against a player, is when he is at fault. That is the difference between the analytics teams are keeping, and the analytics available to the public.

Year | ES SV%* | Relative to Team SV%

2014-15: 94.6% (+4.0%)
2013-14: 92.2% (-0.3%)
2012-13: 91.5% (+0.6%)
2011-12: 91.7% (-0.4%)
2010-11: 92.9% (+1.1%)
2009-10: 90.4% (-1.8%)
2008-09: 90.3% (-0.7%)
2007-08: 92.0% (0.9%)

His effect is negligible, except for this year, where the SV% is crazy.

They've pretty much already determined that defensemen can't sustain their impact on team-SV% from year to year, despite what common sense may suggest.

* - median ES SV% around the league tends to rest at around 92%.
- Tomahawk

Can't believe you did all that work you nerd.

Edit: thank you

He's played the majority of the season with Read and Umberger on his wing. Read has all of 2 ES goals this season. Umberger has only recently began to score. I think the alarm is a false alarm.
- MJL

That is how i see it. At 22 he is already a solid dfensive center. I think you get him some wingers and he can easily be a number 2 center. Also get him the right wingers and they could go against the top lines and still create their own chances. That is what happened last night. They went against the top line, kept them in their own zone and then they scored as well. Other then the PP goal i really didn't hear much about ovechkin or his line a lot last night.

Can't believe you did all that work you nerd.

Edit: thank you
- PhillySportsGuy

I wouldn't have bothered w/o Puckalytics.