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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Hit Midpoint with OT Win
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 11:43 AM ET
Ham-handed pylons don't get to play as NHL regulars for lengthy careers. They have to have something on the ball and know what they are doing out there. Simply being big isn't enough.

For example, if the Flyers could simply plug in Oliver Lauridsen for a fraction of the salary they pay Grossmann, they would have done it two years ago.

- bmeltzer


I think we'd agree that the difference between Lauridsen and Nik isn't in the physical tools, tho. Nik processes the game better than the Dane, no doubt there.

Back to the original choice between Schenn or Grossmann, I'm picking Schenn. He's got that marginal advantage in tools over Nik, and you hope his hockey-brain will continue to make strides.

The team is better off w/o Nik, IMO. I can respect and understand if you feel differently.

MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 9 @ 11:43 AM ET
A perfect example of why these stats are so incredibly suspect. Is a successful zone exit only the responsibility of a defenseman? The only time a failed attempt should be held against a player, is when he is at fault. That is the difference between the analytics teams are keeping, and the analytics available to the public.
- MJL


And a reason why that Grossmann gif above is so misleading. We have no idea what happened up to the point. It looks like Grossmann is trying to gather a wraparound from another player and never even gains possession before a Leaf is on him. He has no support and it results in a scoring chance. Ill bet it wasn't even scored as a turnover, and if it was, it was whoever wrapped the puck around the boards to begin with.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 9 @ 11:46 AM ET
*Walks in*

*Advanced stats arguments*

*Walks out*
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 11:46 AM ET
A perfect example of why these stats are so incredibly suspect. Is a successful zone exit only the responsibility of a defenseman? The only time a failed attempt should be held against a player, is when he is at fault. That is the difference between the analytics teams are keeping, and the analytics available to the public.
- MJL


They're only counting actual, individual clear attempts, as recognized by the human watching the game.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 9 @ 11:48 AM ET
*Walks in*

*Advanced stats arguments*

*Walks out*

- NickTheKid87



But Bill is involved so it makes it more interesting.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jan 9 @ 11:48 AM ET
I think we'd agree that the difference between Lauridsen and Nik isn't in the physical tools, tho. Nik processes the game better than the Dane, no doubt there.

Back to the original choice between Schenn or Grossmann, I'm picking Schenn. He's got that marginal advantage in tools over Nik, and you hope his hockey-brain will continue to make strides.

The team is better off w/o Nik, IMO. I can respect and understand if you feel differently.

- Tomahawk


With Luke, it just comes down to knowing how to work within his game. When he's playing within his limitations and working to his strengths, he is effective. He's also got six fewer years of wear-and-tear on him.

Schenn never seems to sustain that simplified game. However, as with Number 8, a lot of things that get blamed on him are collective failures where he's just one of many culprits -- and often not even the main one.

exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

Jan 9 @ 11:50 AM ET
He makes inaccurate passes, fails on clears, and ices the puck all the time. These errors all result in extra zone time and shots for the opposition.
- Feanor


I don't see many inaccurate passes...I see a lot more simple (accurate) passes that go d to d or up to a nearby forward from Grossmann. As far as failed clears and icings, most of the time when this happens, it's due to deficient support from teammates...when he has the puck in his zone and the forwards are too far away or not getting open Grossmann is forced to less desirable options, sometimes beyond his limitations, to try and make a play, which can force errors. One could say that well, if he's a limited player in that regard, then he's just not good enough. It's more complicated than that...if the team plays like they should, with proper support, Grossmann is able to play his role (to the benefit fo the team) without his limitations being exposed...if they don't, then they run a greater risk of bad things happening.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 9 @ 11:50 AM ET
I wouldn't have bothered w/o Puckalytics.
- Tomahawk


Lol. I'm not even getting involved
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 11:51 AM ET
And a reason why that Grossmann gif above is so misleading. We have no idea what happened up to the point. It looks like Grossmann is trying to gather a wraparound from another player and never even gains possession before a Leaf is on him. He has no support and it results in a scoring chance. Ill bet it wasn't even scored as a turnover, and if it was, it was whoever wrapped the puck around the boards to begin with.
- MBFlyerfan


To me, it looks like he has support there... if he can just chip it up the wall, Laughton's got a 50-50 puck at the blueline. Instead of doing that, he tries the direct pass over the middle to Laughts and puts the puck behind him. It's just a bad decision, compounded by bad execution under pressure leading to a really dangerous scoring chance.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 9 @ 11:52 AM ET
They're only counting actual, individual clear attempts, as recognized by the human watching the game.
- Tomahawk



No they aren't. It's impossible to eliminate the human element that makes it suspect. From what I read from most of the articles written by a lot of analytic proponents, they are so married to these stats that they either lack the objectivity, or simply lack the knowledge of the game to accurately record what happened on a play.

There is one fact that can never be taken out of the game, and that is that it's a team game. There is no such thing as an individual clear attempt for a defenseman.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 11:58 AM ET
There is one fact that can never be taken out of the game, and that is that it's a team game. There is no such thing as an individual clear attempt for a defenseman.
- MJL


There's no such thing as an individual shot, or goal, or save, or hit as well then. Why keep track of anything?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 9 @ 11:59 AM ET
To me, it looks like he has support there... if he can just chip it up the wall, Laughton's got a 50-50 puck at the blueline. Instead of doing that, he tries the direct pass over the middle to Laughts and puts the puck behind him. It's just a bad decision, compounded by bad execution under pressure leading to a really dangerous scoring chance.
- Tomahawk



Where is the support? Sometimes you have to give the opposition credit. Strong forecheck there by the Kings. Grossmann is trying to gather the puck while being pressured. The puck doesn't always go where you want. Kings also have the breakout forward covered.
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

Jan 9 @ 11:59 AM ET
http://pattisonave.com/fl...one-exit-data-games-1-20/

He's by far the worst in the top-6 at getting the puck out of the zone successfully -- even worse at an exit that sees the team retain possession. Luke Schenn is way ahead of him.

- Tomahawk


Lots of flaws in that data (for example, if a D passes to a forward in the D zone and the forward loses possession, whose fault is that?)...also this doesn't explicitly say he's a bad passer, it's just an assumptive extrapolation you're making that may not be accurate.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 9 @ 11:59 AM ET
Does anyone keep up with the goals/points race? Last time I looked Stamkos was leaving Ov in the dust and now Ov is tied with him. I like both guys a lot but I choose Ovechkin over Stamkos every time. Once Ov catches fire, he's a one man wrecking crew. Malkin is another guy who needs very little help who I feel deserves more credit.

Crosby
Ovechkin
Stamkos
Malkin
Giroux

Just my opinion.
Winning
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Put in Matt Read
Joined: 03.29.2011

Jan 9 @ 12:00 PM ET
w hy dont tthey just quit
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 9 @ 12:00 PM ET
To me, it looks like he has support there... if he can just chip it up the wall, Laughton's got a 50-50 puck at the blueline. Instead of doing that, he tries the direct pass over the middle to Laughts and puts the puck behind him. It's just a bad decision, compounded by bad execution under pressure leading to a really dangerous scoring chance.
- Tomahawk



We will just disagree. By the time he is able to get the puck on his stick the King is already there. Perhaps his best play there would have been to just eat the puck by shielding off the King. But then you would be killing him for that, saying he failed to clear the zone.

I don't think he is trying a pass I think he is just trying to get a stick on the puck and get it out of there.

You can ignore the probability that he is in that position because another bad play put him there, but that is what looks like happened. And I doubt any other defenseman on the team has a better result.

I understand what advanced stats represent, but the simple fact is that the stats just cant be applied to certain players and certain situations, they don't take enough in to account.

I feel like we are ripping a power hitter because he doesn't steal enough bases.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 9 @ 12:02 PM ET
There's no such thing as an individual shot, or goal, or save, or hit as well then. Why keep track of anything?
- Tomahawk



It's pretty easy to keep track of a shot, hit or a save. Not much mystery there. Keeping track of a successful zone exit that requires the precision of execution from a number of players within the team game, is a different matter. A defenseman is no the only player responsible for that.

Comes down to the same thing, use the analytics as a small part to give some insight, but to come down to the correct read on a player requires analysis, and above all, watching the game.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 9 @ 12:03 PM ET
We will just disagree. By the time he is able to get the puck on his stick the King is already there. Perhaps his best play there would have been to just eat the puck by shielding off the King. But then you would be killing him for that, saying he failed to clear the zone.

I don't think he is trying a pass I think he is just trying to get a stick on the puck and get it out of there.

You can ignore the probability that he is in that position because another bad play put him there, but that is what looks like happened. And I doubt any other defenseman on the team has a better result.

I understand what advanced stats represent, but the simple fact is that the stats just cant be applied to certain players and certain situations, they don't take enough in to account.

I feel like we are ripping a power hitter because he doesn't steal enough bases.

- MBFlyerfan



Exactly!
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:03 PM ET
w hy dont tthey just quit
- Winning


srsly
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Jan 9 @ 12:03 PM ET
Does anyone keep up with the goals/points race? Last time I looked Stamkos was leaving Ov in the dust and now Ov is tied with him. I like both guys a lot but I choose Ovechkin over Stamkos every time. Once Ov catches fire, he's a one man wrecking crew. Malkin is another guy who needs very little help who I feel deserves more credit.

Crosby
Ovechkin
Stamkos
Malkin
Giroux

Just my opinion.

- SuperSchennBros


If you're talking about points, I'd go:

Voracek
Crosby
Seguin
Giroux
Kane

Goals:

Seguin
Nash
Ovechkin
Stamkos
Pavelski
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jan 9 @ 12:03 PM ET
And a reason why that Grossmann gif above is so misleading. We have no idea what happened up to the point. It looks like Grossmann is trying to gather a wraparound from another player and never even gains possession before a Leaf is on him. He has no support and it results in a scoring chance. Ill bet it wasn't even scored as a turnover, and if it was, it was whoever wrapped the puck around the boards to begin with.
- MBFlyerfan


He tried to make an backhand pass to Laughton, but he put it right on the tape of a TB player.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:04 PM ET
He tried to make an backhand pass to Laughton, but he put it right on the tape of a TB player.
- Feanor


Finally, somebody gets the team right.

(I guess we all just see what we want to see from that play, which kind of underscores how unreliable eyeballs, aka scouting, is, no?)
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:06 PM ET
With Luke, it just comes down to knowing how to work within his game. When he's playing within his limitations and working to his strengths, he is effective. He's also got six fewer years of wear-and-tear on him.

Schenn never seems to sustain that simplified game. However, as with Number 8, a lot of things that get blamed on him are collective failures where he's just one of many culprits -- and often not even the main one.

- bmeltzer


Maybe I'm crazy to believe this but if we walk away from Grossmann, we'll never Luke Schenn more then ever. I don't believe Sam Morin will come in and dominate physically alone. I definitely do not want to go back to a Timonen, Coburn, Carle, Jones looking top four. We were so desperate for a physical player, we targeted Andrew Alberts. I really believe Luke feels a need in terms of right handed shot, consistent physical play and blocked shot. He may not be apart of the core but I believe he can change this vision of himself as Grossmann did from one year ago to now.

Heck, when Luke Schenn lays out a hit, he looks like he's letting up. I think he's one of today's best hitters. I think he could have killed Tom Wilson last night if he wanted to.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:08 PM ET
If you're talking about points, I'd go:

Voracek
Crosby
Seguin
Giroux
Kane

Goals:

Seguin
Nash
Ovechkin
Stamkos
Pavelski

- Streit2ThePoint


Overall body of work in terms of what players are capable of.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:09 PM ET
Finally, somebody gets the team right.

(I guess we all just see what we want to see from that play, which kind of underscores how unreliable eyeballs, aka scouting, is, no?)

- Tomahawk

Do we not similarly interpret the data with our unreliable eyeballs as well? Is it not collected and categorized by unreliable eyeballs?

Still though, it even says TB up in the score display. wtf guys
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