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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Hit Midpoint with OT Win
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nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Jan 9 @ 12:37 PM ET
It wasn't meant to be insulting. I value your opinion more than most of the ingrates here. There are just many things people have said on this thread that counter the very basic fundamentals of analytics. People use outliers to contradict trends. The whole point of advanced stats is really just to show people which end of the ice the game is being played when that one particular player is on the ice.

advanced stats say that the game is overwhelmingly being played in the Flyers end when Grossmann is on the ice despite seeing balanced zone starts and middle of the road quality of competition. He would need to be the best shot suppressing player in the history of the NHL to offset the number of shots against.

- PhillySportsGuy


I still don't think the blame can be placed on one player for that either to be honest. Believe me I am a stats geek. a big part of my job is stats. I just think they are flawed
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:39 PM ET
Typical pissing contest.

If people want to like Grossmann, that's on them. I see him being a big reason they are a bad transition team, don't see him being a good enough defender to make up for that limitation and as such, don't see why or how he's held in such regard.

I use my eyes as well as stats to come to this conclusion. I don't dismiss either, because using both paints a far more clear picture. I can look at Grossmann's stats and see his CF% and other shot based metrics are bad. But I can also see how he's used and what competition he faces. But it doesn't tell me everything.

The trouble for Grossmann is, when I watch the games, I see that he's slower than most players, he's not a particularly good passer and he's not exactly comfortable with the puck on his stick. I've seen him lose positioning on plays at about an average rate, so while I wouldn't call him a bad defender, he's certainly not an exceptional one, either.

He's a hard worker, who is willing to do the nasty work-block shots, be physical, stand up for teammates. That is a very likable trait. But it doesn't erase his limitation and elevate him past physical 4-5 stay at home type, either.

- Jsaquella

Well isn't it as much on you to dislike a player as much as it is for those to like him? In my opinion Grossmann has been one of our best defensemen this season. The fact that he's not great with thepuck and has even worse foot speed is something we've all been aware of since we traded for him. In fact Bill who covers Dallas also warned us of everything you've mentioned the day he was aquired. Nicolas Grossmann was a long established player in the NHL before coming here, we can't expect him to change now. I'm not even sure that I would.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:40 PM ET
It wasn't meant to be insulting. I value your opinion more than most of the ingrates here. There are just many things people have said on this thread that counter the very basic fundamentals of analytics. People use outliers to contradict trends. The whole point of advanced stats is really just to show people which end of the ice the game is being played when that one particular player is on the ice.

advanced stats say that the game is overwhelmingly being played in the Flyers end when Grossmann is on the ice despite seeing balanced zone starts and middle of the road quality of competition. He would need to be the best shot suppressing player in the history of the NHL to offset the number of shots against.

- PhillySportsGuy


<-- ingrate

There are just many things people have said on this thread that counter the very basic fundamentals of analytics.
- PhillySportsGuy


The baseball fallacy is one of the most repeated ones.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:41 PM ET
<-- ingrate

The baseball fallacy is one of the most repeated ones.

- Tomahawk


What fallacy? That individual stats are easier to track in baseball than hockey?
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:42 PM ET
No, we are saying that there needs to be both. They both can not be viewed in a vacuum. In my opinion the advanced stats guys seem to live in the vacuum more often than not. Especially when they use the same type of stats to compare two very different types of players.
- MBFlyerfan


I agree, both are needed. And a lot of advanced stats people push them but a lot of traditionalists seem to classify advanced stats people as those how are not advocating for both approaches. Most of the stats people that I have come in contact with value both the tradition "eye ball" test as well as analytics. Seems like there's always a misrepresentation of what people believe.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:43 PM ET
What fallacy? That individual stats are easier to track in baseball than hockey?
- wolfhounds


Yes, baseball lends itself almost perfectly to numbers.

That does not, in turn, mean that math/science fails under less perfect conditions.

Yet that's that's the first rationale levied against stats... each and every time.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:44 PM ET
You're correct, it is subjective, but it's still a better method then overusing analytics.
- MJL


I feel like there are a lot of anti-stats traditionalists who consistently label someone as "overusing" them when they are used at all.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:44 PM ET
I really don;t see anyone arguing for him to be more than a 4-5 stay at home type. Now if it came down to moving one of Grossmann or Schenn I would keep Schenn because of age and the fact Grossmann has had injury issues that concern me. I would not object at all to moving him at the deadline if the return is decent.
- nastyflyergirl

My thoughts exactly.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 9 @ 12:44 PM ET
Yes, baseball lends itself almost perfectly to numbers.

That does not, in turn, mean that math/science fails under less perfect conditions.

Yet that's that's the first rationale levied against stats... each and every time.

- Tomahawk


And its a good rationale, based simply on the logic that the games are very different.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:45 PM ET
I still don't think the blame can be placed on one player for that either to be honest. Believe me I am a stats geek. a big part of my job is stats. I just think they are flawed
- nastyflyergirl


How big of a sample size would you need before you would call it a trend?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:45 PM ET
And its a good rationale, based simply on the logic that the games are very different.
- MBFlyerfan


Different, yes. But hockey is not impenetrable.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:46 PM ET
One, Couturier doesn't need to be a a player who rasies the game of other players to be an effective 2nd line center. I see no reason why he can't be part of a successful 2nd NHL scoring line. A line is about all 3 players on it, not just one player. That the Flyers other lines are inconsistent certainly doesn't just fall on Couturier. In fact I would argue that his linemates have been holding him back this season.
- MJL


Chicken and egg. Is Read holding Couturier back or vice versa? You talk about Couturier being a 60 point guy, but he has demonstrated so far to be a 40 point guy. Yes, some of that is linemates and some of it is how he is used, but he has to bear some culpability as well.

I completely disagree with your first statement. Given the other key young forwards - mainly Schenn and Simmonds, the Flyers desperately need a guy who can raise their game. Neither can consistently generate offense for themselves, they both play best around the net, neither is particularly strong on the rush making tape to tape passes. Their fortunes would be considerably raised with a playmaking center.

Consider this. 2 summers ago Holmgren had Schenn and Couturier on the roster, either of whom could have been the 2nd line center. Yet he went out and signed Vinnie to perform that role for at least 3 or 4 years. Now, it obviously didn't work out. But it talks to how the organization views both Schenn and Couturier and their roles. Maybe Hexy sees it differently. But considering where the team is, if he did why wouldn't he demand Berube put either player in that role and leave them there?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:46 PM ET
How big of a sample size would you need before you would call it a trend?
- PhillySportsGuy


9 units
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:47 PM ET
Typical pissing contest.

If people want to like Grossmann, that's on them. I see him being a big reason they are a bad transition team, don't see him being a good enough defender to make up for that limitation and as such, don't see why or how he's held in such regard.

I use my eyes as well as stats to come to this conclusion. I don't dismiss either, because using both paints a far more clear picture. I can look at Grossmann's stats and see his CF% and other shot based metrics are bad. But I can also see how he's used and what competition he faces. But it doesn't tell me everything.

The trouble for Grossmann is, when I watch the games, I see that he's slower than most players, he's not a particularly good passer and he's not exactly comfortable with the puck on his stick. I've seen him lose positioning on plays at about an average rate, so while I wouldn't call him a bad defender, he's certainly not an exceptional one, either.

He's a hard worker, who is willing to do the nasty work-block shots, be physical, stand up for teammates. That is a very likable trait. But it doesn't erase his limitation and elevate him past physical 4-5 stay at home type, either.

- Jsaquella


It seems like there a lot of people that see someone say "Grossmann's possession stats are bad" and automatically they assume said person is not watching the game.

Like you said, you use both and many of the stat people I know do the same. It's been the traditionalists, in my experience, that refuse the stats side. I can only offer this anecdotal evidence though.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:47 PM ET
Yes, baseball lends itself almost perfectly to numbers.

That does not, in turn, mean that math/science fails under less perfect conditions.

Yet that's that point that is always the first rationale levied against stats.

- Tomahawk


Different arguments entirely. As far as I can tell, nobody is (or should be) critiquing math or science, rather the methods and interpretation of gathered data and conclusions drawn from it.

And I don't see any way to successfully argue baseball and stats don't go together better than pb&j.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 9 @ 12:49 PM ET
Different, yes. But hockey is not impenetrable.
- Tomahawk


No one is saying it is. I'm just saying that the game is different enough that the stats cant possibly take in to consideration some aspects. It doesn't make them bad or useless.




BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jan 9 @ 12:50 PM ET
It seems like there a lot of people that see someone say "Grossmann's possession stats are bad" and automatically they assume said person is not watching the game.

Like you said, you use both and many of the stat people I know do the same. It's been the traditionalists, in my experience, that refuse the stats side. I can only offer this anecdotal evidence though.

- NickTheKid87

Conversely, it seems like a lot of people see "Grossman's not as bad as the advanced statistics suggest," and automatically assume said person "doesn't understand" statistics.

The fact that you can only offer anecdotal evidence on the latter part of the post says everything about that suggestion.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:50 PM ET
It wasn't meant to be insulting. I value your opinion more than most of the ingrates here. There are just many things people have said on this thread that counter the very basic fundamentals of analytics. People use outliers to contradict trends. The whole point of advanced stats is really just to show people which end of the ice the game is being played when that one particular player is on the ice.

advanced stats say that the game is overwhelmingly being played in the Flyers end when Grossmann is on the ice despite seeing balanced zone starts and middle of the road quality of competition. He would need to be the best shot suppressing player in the history of the NHL to offset the number of shots against.

- PhillySportsGuy


Gotta say I am insulted by that a bit.

NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:51 PM ET
Yes, baseball lends itself almost perfectly to numbers.

That does not, in turn, mean that math/science fails under less perfect conditions.

Yet that's that's the first rationale levied against stats... each and every time.

- Tomahawk


Advanced stats are relatively new in hockey, really only picking up steam over the last 3-5 years or so. At some point, maybe 10-15 years done the road, isolating an individual player will be much easier. I think the idea that they will never be a particularly effective tool is silly. There was time when humans thought the sun revolved around the world but look what's happened since. We know the age of the observable universe for gods sake, I think we can use math to do a lot less than that.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:52 PM ET
Gotta say I am insulted by that a bit.


- TheGreat28


Fully my intention
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jan 9 @ 12:53 PM ET
Better Half gets her first infusion of Remicade today. If she responds well, she'll feel like a normal human for the first time in her life come February or March.

Good vibes please, friends?
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:53 PM ET
Conversely, it seems like a lot of people see "Grossman's not as bad as the advanced statistics suggest," and automatically assume said person "doesn't understand" statistics.

The fact that you can only offer anecdotal evidence on the latter part of the post says everything about that suggestion.

- BulliesPhan87


I've seen that too. To be honest, the people that condemn stats and the ones that refuse to look at anything else are not worth listening to, so I don't.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:53 PM ET
Chicken and egg. Is Read holding Couturier back or vice versa? You talk about Couturier being a 60 point guy, but he has demonstrated so far to be a 40 point guy. Yes, some of that is linemates and some of it is how he is used, but he has to bear some culpability as well.

I completely disagree with your first statement. Given the other key young forwards - mainly Schenn and Simmonds, the Flyers desperately need a guy who can raise their game. Neither can consistently generate offense for themselves, they both play best around the net, neither is particularly strong on the rush making tape to tape passes. Their fortunes would be considerably raised with a playmaking center.

Consider this. 2 summers ago Holmgren had Schenn and Couturier on the roster, either of whom could have been the 2nd line center. Yet he went out and signed Vinnie to perform that role for at least 3 or 4 years. Now, it obviously didn't work out. But it talks to how the organization views both Schenn and Couturier and their roles. Maybe Hexy sees it differently. But considering where the team is, if he did why wouldn't he demand Berube put either player in that role and leave them there?

- TheGreat28


I don't know dude, Couturier seems to be the straw that stirs the drink for his line and the other two guys can't keep up. Normally it's the centers line but it doesn't have to be.

Giroux's line
Simmonds' line
Couturier's line
Lecavalier's line
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 9 @ 12:53 PM ET
It seems like there a lot of people that see someone say "Grossmann's possession stats are bad" and automatically they assume said person is not watching the game.

Like you said, you use both and many of the stat people I know do the same. It's been the traditionalists, in my experience, that refuse the stats side. I can only offer this anecdotal evidence though.

- NickTheKid87


Without delving into this too deep:

Yes, the best way to analyze the game is to watch it as well as delve into some of the "advanced" stats. If you want to do that, it's fine (although I've found that most advanced stats just confirm the eye test, but I digress).

However, when some people (as in one whose username rhymes with "Chomahawk") comes in with a new set of advanced stats clubbing the same player every single day, and then engages in a pissing match with someone who disregards most advanced stats (as in one whose username rhymes with MJSmell), then it's just both parties refusing to give an inch and acknowledge any validity of the other side and you get this daily pissing match. And the cycle continues...
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 9 @ 12:54 PM ET
advanced stats buzz, huh

Im going down to the pool to chill and play some guitar

you kids have fun and play nice
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