they tend to go hand in hand from time to time
- Lucas Neilson

When they do for me I usually wake up like where am i

they tend to go hand in hand from time to time
- Lucas Neilson

That'll cost you $60 a song young man.

It doesn't mean that at all even if it was true. I don't buy into any of this meaningless fancy stats junk, but if it's going to be used it should at least support the argument, and in this case it doesn't.

Winnik has 34 more "Fenwick Against" events on the year than Sutter. Even if Fenwick had anything to do with "shot suppression, he's apparently worse at it than Sutter, not better.

Overall, he's .3% better in terms of Fenwick for. That's insignificant next to the fact that Sutter has 7 more goals and 40 more shots (you know, on the net, unblocked, the ones that matter).

Then to bring in the most ludicrous advanced stat of all, Sutter's "usage" is more difficult than Winnik's. Worse teammates, harder QoC. Not by much, but apparently that matters when judging other players, but not Sutter.
- hardnosed

Consistent with EVERY INDUSTRY, analytics are initially viewed with skepticism by those that don't understand the applications and/or dislike the findings. Yet, quantitative analysis always becomes standardized in industries (including other sports) for efficiency for the obvious reasons that quantifiable results > subjectivity in assessments.

Fenwick explicitly measures unblocked shot attempt differentials, due to shot blocking being a statistically significant variable. It is a very simply concept. Sutter is much worse than Winnik as Sutter has always had a negative Fenwick% and even negative relative Fenwick when he played on poor possession teams in Carolina.

Sutter is less productive per 60 mins. That he plays more minutes than Winnik is why he produces more is not an impressive attribute. If you work more you can produce more, but he is far less efficient at his work. Winnik is a career and current season's Fenwick are positive. Sutter's have been negative every year. You either are deliberately obfuscating the reality of the data or don't understand how to interpret it.

QoC, Zone starts, and teammates all account for changes in possession metrics. However, accounting for all that doesn't make for a more favorable case for Sutter and in many instances it only reinforces his ineptitude.

Looks like he's only going to be here for one year. I hope they don't even consider given him that.

http://insidepittsburghsp...an-ehrhoffs-future/71002/
- stevens87

Yeah, especially at his sample size. He was just starting to look good. But I agree, we can only pay Paul Martin money

That'll cost you $60 a song young man.
- canadianpenfan

oh wow, thats no messin around!! only 20 around here

When they do for me I usually wake up like where am i
- dbell646

thats always exciting wondering where you are when you wake up

oh wow, thats no messin around!! only 20 around here
- Lucas Neilson

$40 is a small price to pay for teeth.

$40 is a small price to pay for teeth.
- canadianpenfan

yep...i just burp puked thanks for that

So you say these advanced stats are garbage, but then you use them in your argument for why Winnik is worse than Sutter? Which is it, are they garbage or are they usefull?
- PensFan1103

Huh? I didn't use them in my argument. Somebody else used them in theirs, and the actual reality of those stats happened to paint a different picture.

Makes it even worse if you take into consideration Sutter was our 2C for a while.

If Lapierre is down there surely Goc is pretty close due to their similarities in numbers then the Pens have 4.

Wouldn't mind seeing the rest & what other 'top' teams look like? Who has the best?

Maybe the Pens are a 2 line team & that's it, 2 management regimes resting with the same players according to the statistics.

And I don't believe in the meaningless outdated narratives.
The fact is, Winnik has been playing for a really bad team and put up stats that are equal to a guy who has spent 20 games playing with a top 5 nhl player and on a much better team. His lesser cap hit, by more than 2million, allows you to add ANOTHER piece to the bottom six. Thus, pushing out poor players like Sill and adams.
- usethe1-2-2

Once again, 11 goals and 4 goals are not equal. Yay, assists! and all, but I've watched plenty of Winnik and his playmaking and passing skills aren't even at Sutter's level. He's a defensively responsible 4th liner. Once again, that does nothing to help balance out the scoring, unless he's replacing a 4th liner.

And Malkin and Sutter didn't play together for 20 games.

Looks like he's only going to be here for one year. I hope they don't even consider given him that.

http://insidepittsburghsp...an-ehrhoffs-future/71002/
- stevens87

1. Would love to have Ehrhoff for a few years, but no way I'd pay hm $6M "long-term." 2-3yr deal in the $5M/yr range is the max i'd do.

2. If the Penguins can find a role for Sill, Adams, & Sutter, i sure as heck hope they can find a role for Bennett. He may be going through a rough patch, but he is one of the few players the Penguins have in their bottom-6 (along w/ Downie)that could produce some secondary scoring.

1. Would love to have Ehrhoff for a few years, but no way I'd pay hm $6M "long-term." 2-3yr deal in the $5M/yr range is the max i'd do.

2. If the Penguins can find a role for Sill, Adams, & Sutter, i sure as heck hope they can find a role for Bennett. He may be going through a rough patch, but he is one of the few players the Penguins have in their bottom-6 (along w/ Downie)that could produce some secondary scoring.
- s0rcerer1984

Sill (hopefully) and Adams will not be here next year.

have you ever tried "the kraken" rum?
- Lucas Neilson

No I haven't tried that one. Not a huge rum guy.

No I haven't tried that one. Not a huge rum guy.
- powerhouse

It's dangerous.

It's just like candy to me.

Consistent with EVERY INDUSTRY, analytics are initially viewed with skepticism by those that don't understand the applications and/or dislike the findings. Yet, quantitative analysis always becomes standardized in industries (including other sports) for efficiency for the obvious reasons that quantifiable results > subjectivity in assessments.

- jfkst1

Inapplicable analogy. In an industry, management can't watch the entirety of their operation from the owner's box. And shoot me if I ever consider hockey an industry.

Proponents of advanced stats would be the ones who appear to understand them the least, as each one so blindly trumpeted and adhered to is so full of logical holes it's laughable. Shot differential does not equal possession. Shot differentials themselves are as flawed as +/-, with all of the attendant issues. Shot differential favors teams that fling pucks, while punishing patient teams. Shot differential hurts teams that pack in zone and let teams shoot from the perimeter. Zone start percentage means nothing if your coach rolls lines 95% of the time. QoC means nothing in terms of identifying roles if your coach doesn't match lines.

Fenwick explicitly measures unblocked shot attempt differentials, due to shot blocking being a statistically significant variable. It is a very simply concept. Sutter is much worse than Winnik as Sutter has always had a negative Fenwick% and even negative relative Fenwick when he played on poor possession teams in Carolina.

- jfkst1

And for all the talk about Sutter being a "negative possession player," Sutter's in the negative by a swing of only 20 or so "Fenwick events." Big whoop. Easily explained by the Sutter's defensive style, which is to play safe and do the smart thing, forcing things to the perimeter. If Stamkos comes down the wing, Sutter plays him to the outside properly and Stamkos is limited to a bad angle wrister that misses the net, that's Sutter doing his job, not something he should get a demerit for.

Sutter is less productive per 60 mins. That he plays more minutes than Winnik is why he produces more is not an impressive attribute. If you work more you can produce more, but he is far less efficient at his work. Winnik is a career and current season's Fenwick are positive. Sutter's have been negative every year. You either are deliberately obfuscating the reality of the data or don't understand how to interpret it.

- jfkst1

Winnik's 5 on 5 Fenwick is negative this year. Points per 60 minutes will mean something to me when they start making players play 60 minutes a game. Like I said, Fenwick is worthless. Not obfuscating data, I understand full well how it's misinterpreted.

It's dangerous.

It's just like candy to me.
- BINGO!

Capt sherry finish, best rum ever; im quite a connoisseur

Points per 60 minutes will mean something to me when they start making players play 60 minutes a game.
- hardnosed

Inapplicable analogy. In an industry, management can't watch the entirety of their operation from the owner's box. And shoot me if I ever consider hockey an industry.

Proponents of advanced stats would be the ones who appear to understand them the least, as each one so blindly trumpeted and adhered to is so full of logical holes it's laughable. Shot differential does not equal possession. Shot differentials themselves are as flawed as +/-, with all of the attendant issues. Shot differential favors teams that fling pucks, while punishing patient teams. Shot differential hurts teams that pack in zone and let teams shoot from the perimeter. Zone start percentage means nothing if your coach rolls lines 95% of the time. QoC means nothing in terms of identifying roles if your coach doesn't match lines.



And for all the talk about Sutter being a "negative possession player," Sutter's in the negative by a swing of only 20 or so "Fenwick events." Big whoop. Easily explained by the Sutter's defensive style, which is to play safe and do the smart thing, forcing things to the perimeter. If Stamkos comes down the wing, Sutter plays him to the outside properly and Stamkos is limited to a bad angle wrister that misses the net, that's Sutter doing his job, not something he should get a demerit for.



Winnik's 5 on 5 Fenwick is negative this year. Points per 60 minutes will mean something to me when they start making players play 60 minutes a game. Like I said, Fenwick is worthless. Not obfuscating data, I understand full well how it's misinterpreted.
- hardnosed

There are plenty of operations where management does witnesses the entirety of their operations. "Industry"- a group of businesses that provide a particular product or service. The NHL is an industry that wouldn't exist if it were not profitable.

Shot differentials have better predictive value than any other current metric. Ignore them if you want, but don't claim they aren't without merit unless you can refute their predictive value.

Sutter has NEVER been even an average possession player in any NHL season. There is no statistical significance between shot quality and quantity so your Sutter v. Stamkos scenario is not only anecdotal, but also useless beyond providing an assuming hypothetical in which Sutter could do anything against Stamkos.

Not quite sure why I am trying to convince you of anything since you don't even know the length of regulation NHL games in the first place.

- BulliesPhan87

It's a useless stat. It totally ignores that #1, playing big minutes is a physical hardship compared to playing in a limited role, #2 that teams and especially shut down types like Sutter don't spend their entire TOI trying aggressively to score, and most importantly wins by a team are not calculated in terms of G/60 by their players.

The last two are interesting because when folks put up Sutters' G/60 or P/60, they're never in the format of 5 on 5/Close. When you look at P/60 and G/60 with 5 on 5 only and use the CLOSE feature, you find that Winnik and Sutter have the same G/60, and Sutter trails Winnik by only 0.1 points/60.

There are plenty of operations where management does witnesses the entirety of their operations. "Industry"- a group of businesses that provide a particular product or service. The NHL is an industry that wouldn't exist if it were not profitable.

- jfkst1

Puke.

Shot differentials have better predictive value than any other current metric. Ignore them if you want, but don't claim they aren't without merit unless you can refute their predictive value.

- jfkst1

That's why stats geeks keep getting rich in Vegas, right?!? That's why NHL FO's give little credence to them beyond making PR-friendly small time hires, right?

Sutter has NEVER been even an average possession player in any NHL season. There is no statistical significance between shot quality and quantity so your Sutter v. Stamkos scenario is not only anecdotal, but also useless beyond providing an assuming hypothetical in which Sutter could do anything against Stamkos.

- jfkst1

Did I mention that I don't care about "possession" if that's how you define attempted shot differential? There is no statistical significance between shot quality and quantity? What?!? And Sutter has a habit of shutting Stamkos down when matched up against him. Guess that's why it's one of the few matchups Johnston has pursued this year, but what would he know, he apparently doesn't put much stock into analytics. And hockey is a long string of anecdotes, which is why statistics will never be able to paint more than a sliver of a full picture.

Not quite sure why I am trying to convince you of anything since you don't even know the length of regulation NHL games in the first place.
- jfkst1

Oooh, burn.

Way to address the points I laid out. Won't respond if you're just going to shift arguments and sidestep the points in question.

You know, I was under the impression this year was to be a sort of "transition year" to clean up the shero/bylsma mess, and I think we all forgot the cap/roster situation we are more or less stuck with due to the teams great start this year. Lets remember the following garbage players will hopefully not be back next year: craig adams, max lapierre, mark arcobello, zach sill, robert bortuzzo and thomas greiss. I'd imagine the Penguinz would extend blake comeau, and steve downie at insignificant cap raises. Also remember christian erhoff and paul martin will be more than likely walking after this year.

Look at our cap roster for next year. I think old man ruth set us up for next year to be legit. Yiu have to figure some guys on small contracts come up and stick out of camp next year. Guys like pouliot, megna or sundqvist, maybe kapanen, and that they fill the backup goalie with one of jarry or zatkoff.

So your looking at potentially.
hornqvist - crosby - perron
kunitz - malkin - UFA/TRADE
bennett - sutter - dupuis
downie - megna/sundqvist - comeau

Letang - maata
Depres - scuderi
pouliot - UFA/TRADE

MAF - zatkoff/jarry

that gives pens roughly 8-10 mil to go get some talent in the off season, keeping in mind the caps not goinv up significantly. Maybe they get a marc methot for 4? Or jagr for that second line in the off season. I think whatever noise we make this year in the playoffs would be great and even better if a guy like pouliot gets the experience, then next year we reload with HCMJ players and drop dead weight.
- saintjust21

Id rather have Harrington and Dumoulin than Scuderi and a ufa/trade. Dumoulin especially has not been given a fair chance and has his work cut out for him in the off season but if can can build a little more muscle mass and somehow get a bit of a mean streak he will be very very good, the talent is there, the physical attributes are there, it's just time to use them. And jarry is still 4 years away from being in any discussion. But Matt Murray who penguin fans always forget about is tearing it up in WBS as a 20 year old and he might even be pushing Zatkoff out.

Thats a great team, honestly. They also positioned themselves well in the offseason to essentially let kulemin, grabo and boychuk fall into their lap because of poor cap management by other teams.
- saintjust21

They are a halak injury away from total disaster.

They are a halak injury away from total disaster.
- Dcoms

I can't wait until they trade for Jay McClement.

You said PDO like I care about PDO.

Sutter is a 3rd line center whether you like it or not.
- hardnosed

You guys are so related.