they would have to do it like the lottery.. start at pick #1.. once that team is picked if there ball comes up again they just keep going till they get a team that hasn't been picked.. by about pick 7 it will be annoying... unless after every pick they open the thing up and take the team selected balls out.. it would be stupid i agree
- IndianaSabresFan

I'm lost. Wouldn't it just be 1 lottery at set percentages? Why do many picking of lottery balls?

Last team gets 20 balls, and so on then do one lottery, right? Cause it's only for that top pick.

I dont believe it is, just find it hard to wrap my brain around why it isnt live.

I dont think it would be all that difficult to make it more exciting. Spend the first 40 mins talking prospects, teams percentages, team needs ect ect. Draw one ball (or however you want to do it) And there you have your lottery winner. Slot other teams accordingly and spend the last 15 mins of the show recapping and interviewing the winning/losing teams.
- ieetbred

What's the difference between flipping over a card vs. a ping pong ball popping out? As others have pointed out, the first ball out (the #1 pick) is the only one that you know you won't have to do more than once. After that you run the risk of having to do multiple "picks" until you get a team that hasn't been selected already and fits in the current range of picks. It really would be a circus. I like the idea of counting them Kasey Kasem style.

They lowered it a measly 5% this past year, but I'm pretty sure it was higher than 25% for a while before recent drafts. Just too much of a crapshoot, IMO. Worst should be 50%, 29th should be 25%, then keep going down through the order.

A team drafting 1st should be able to improve well enough to avoid such high chances of continuously loading up their roster with the #1 overall pick
- stashu

Why what's the difference between the worst team and the 3rd worst. Bottom 5 should all have a equal shot. No more of this race for last bs

I honestly think next years lotto helps us. We get Eichel this year and with the crappy format they made to adjust might help us pick #1 next year if we stay in bottom 6-10 teams haha

I'm lost. Wouldn't it just be 1 lottery at set percentages? Why do many picking of lottery balls?

Last team gets 20 balls, and so on then do one lottery, right? Cause it's only for that top pick.
- Lilroot9

I just looked it up and can't find all the craziness that I swear I had heard it takes to draw in the past. But now that the rule of "can't move up more than 4 (or 5?) spots" is gone, I don't see a reason why it couldn't just be 1 draw.

It could always have been 1 draw, but for some reason I thought there was some whole system of a crazy amount of drawings to determine it all.

The idea that any of these lotteries are rigged is absurd. The companies that control the lottery process have way too much to lose. The league has its integrity to lose with absolutely nothing to gain. People make the arguement that player x will save market y. Sorry, doesn't work that way.

While the show is surely dry doing the selection live wouldn't give it any more credibility. There is an old saying in magic that the easiest person to fool is the one watching the trick. Also, unlike state lottery I don't know how they could possibly do it live because teams can only fall into certain ranges. I think at the end of the day it wouldn't be any more exciting.
- Slump Buster

The first pick is the only one "chosen" in the lottery. Each team's weighted probability is represented by different numbers of balls in the hopper - so say you have a 25% chance, you get 4 of 10, or 25 of 100 with your logo on it.

Kathryn Tappen wears a sequin gown, turns the thing on for 10 seconds, then either reaches in and picks a ball or one gets sent into the shoot. The logo picks first.

Everything else works out according to the remainder of the distribution.

Depending on the gown, that could add 60-120 seconds of fun to the process, and make it above the board.

Or, you know, we could just keep letting these guys decide every year:

I'm lost. Wouldn't it just be 1 lottery at set percentages? Why do many picking of lottery balls?

Last team gets 20 balls, and so on then do one lottery, right? Cause it's only for that top pick.
- Lilroot9

The first pick isn't the problem - I believe the problem would be all of the picks after that. For example, a team that finishes in spot x can't get a spot below y.

What's the difference between flipping over a card vs. a ping pong ball popping out? As others have pointed out, the first ball out (the #1 pick) is the only one that you know you won't have to do more than once. After that you run the risk of having to do multiple "picks" until you get a team that hasn't been selected already and fits in the current range of picks. It really would be a circus. I like the idea of counting them Kasey Kasem style.
- Slump Buster

I am referring to the difference of knowing things have been accounted for already vs the anticipation of knowing anything can happen when that ball pops out so to speak.

Ok so i am less educated on how the lottery actually works then, I wasnt aware they draw for each team because teams (untill next year) cant slide more than 1 spot.
- ieetbred

If by slide one spot you mean the team that has 1% and should draft 14th can go to #1, ok. But it sounds like you are saying the old method of only moving up a few spots (not to #1 if out of top 5).

Yeah, that's worked out well
- stashu

The old system was different when the Oilers drafted if that is what you are saying.

Well if you were guarenteed 1st overall, chances are you shouldnt be at or near bottom for more than 2 or 3 years.
- ieetbred

So each team could get a couple in a row? They want to avoid that, hence the lottery.

I am referring to the difference of knowing things have been accounted for already vs the anticipation of knowing anything can happen when that ball pops out so to speak.
- ieetbred

No, I get that completely. I just don't see what the difference is. It's like watching a game live vs watching the recorded version. To the viewer the reveal is the same.

The old system was different when the Oilers drafted if that is what you are saying.
- Lilroot9

Meh, I've liked what I've seen at other times this season when people were saying that teams should only be allowed to pick 1st overall once every X years (3-5 seems a decent range).

I also think it sucks that a team that just misses the playoffs could then win the lottery. I know the odds are horrible, but it should be the worst X teams (maybe weight it on points earned on some kind of curve?) are the only ones in the lottery.

If Boston misses out on the playoffs this year by a few points and wins the lottery, that'll blow (just using Boston as an example, it can be any team).

The first pick is the only one "chosen" in the lottery. Each team's weighted probability is represented by different numbers of balls in the hopper - so say you have a 25% chance, you get 4 of 10, or 25 of 100 with your logo on it.

Kathryn Tappen wears a sequin gown, turns the thing on for 10 seconds, then either reaches in and picks a ball or one gets sent into the shoot. The logo picks first.

Everything else works out according to the remainder of the distribution.

Depending on the gown, that could add 60-120 seconds of fun to the process, and make it above the board.

Or, you know, we could just keep letting these guys decide every year:

- nfph

tappen.. giggle

i thought the draft was to determine all the picks not just #1.. so i stand corrected

The old system was different when the Oilers drafted if that is what you are saying.
- Lilroot9

Yeah % wise and that a team could not move up more than 4spots. I feel that bottom 5 should all get equal shot at bottom 5 spots. 6-10 has equal shot at those spots. 10-15 has equal chance at those spots. A team should not be rewarded bcz it's management is very good at figuring out how to ice the worst team possible.

tappen.. giggle

i thought the draft was to determine all the picks not just #1.. so i stand corrected
- IndianaSabresFan

That's the NBA that does that

The first pick isn't the problem - I believe the problem would be all of the picks after that. For example, a team that finishes in spot x can't get a spot below y.
- Slump Buster

Only one pick is lottery, everyone else fails in reverse standings order. Next year after the first pick that teams balls are taken out and the others adjusted depending on who won (how much percent the team won held)

Yeah % wise and that a team could not move up more than 4spots. I feel that bottom 5 should all get equal shot at bottom 5 spots. 6-10 has equal shot at those spots. 10-15 has equal chance at those spots. A team should not be rewarded bcz it's management is very good at figuring out how to ice the worst team possible.
- joshs

I like that, maybe some very slight variations in the groupings of 5 (based on points?), but as I just posted, I think the worst teams in the league (bottom 5 as you note here) are who should get the #1 overall

The first pick is the only one "chosen" in the lottery. Each team's weighted probability is represented by different numbers of balls in the hopper - so say you have a 25% chance, you get 4 of 10, or 25 of 100 with your logo on it.

Kathryn Tappen wears a sequin gown, turns the thing on for 10 seconds, then either reaches in and picks a ball or one gets sent into the shoot. The logo picks first.

Everything else works out according to the remainder of the distribution.


- nfph

I was just trying to find out some more information about what happens after 1. If memory serves me teams can only drop one slot?

In other news..... I heart Kathryn Tappen.

So each team could get a couple in a row? They want to avoid that, hence the lottery.
- Lilroot9

You get the 1st pick this year.

You can't pick any higher then 5th overall the following year regardless of where you finish the next 3-5 years.

Makes you have to do something as you can't just flat out tank year in and out.

Yeah % wise and that a team could not move up more than 4spots. I feel that bottom 5 should all get equal shot at bottom 5 spots. 6-10 has equal shot at those spots. 10-15 has equal chance at those spots. A team should not be rewarded bcz it's management is very good at figuring out how to ice the worst team possible.
- joshs

If team X won and moved up 4 spots (not to #1) then the worst team gets 1st. (in old system). But that would mean that the worst team had there % chance of getting #1 and all the teams past 5 % 's added up. So over 50% chance of #1

Only one pick is lottery, everyone else fails in reverse standings order. Next year after the first pick that teams balls are taken out and the others adjusted depending on who won (how much percent the team won held)
- Lilroot9

I don't like that bcz if your a celler dweller and there is 20 games left. Why bother icing a team that can win 1 game? In a perfect world everybody is trying to win every game and it works out that you finish where your suppose to. The reality is that management realizes that they have a bad team, if it was not planned, and they start playing to lose.

So each team could get a couple in a row? They want to avoid that, hence the lottery.
- Lilroot9

The NFL has only had 4 repeat teams picking #1 in back to back years in the last 50.

Cleveland
Cinci
Tampa (2x)

Not having a lottery is about the same results.

tappen.. giggle

i thought the draft was to determine all the picks not just #1.. so i stand corrected
- IndianaSabresFan

Nah, don't go by me. I'm just a murphy's law guy and what I was saying is what I'd like to see.

(We might be able to upgrade on Tappen).

You get the 1st pick this year.

You can't pick any higher then 5th overall the following year regardless of where you finish the next 3-5 years.

Makes you have to do something as you can't just flat out tank year in and out.
- dadeadhead

I'm fine with that.