I'm a little surprised at HBuzz crowd tonight, this was HUGE!

I was dreading the unlikely position of going into watching Monday's showdown with a good chance of beating the Yotes and being behind by 2pts! ! !

I'm a little surprised at HBuzz crowd tonight, this was HUGE!

I was dreading the unlikely position of going into watching Monday's showdown with a good chance of beating the Yotes and being behind by 2pts! ! !
- MEBSabresFAN

We have hit a huge lucky streak as of late. Arizona and Edmonton wining games like crazy. Buffalo holding steady. I think people are just nervous to celebrate too early.

OT Win for Buffalo would be Buffalo 2pts Add
OT LOSS for Yotes would be 1pt add

9 + 1 = 10 - 2 = 8

Magic Number would be 8

If we win in Regulation.
Magic Number Starts at 9

Buffalo + 2 Magic Number 9 + 2 = 11
- MEBSabresFAN

There is no subtraction. It's points lost by Buf PLUS points won by Yotes. Reg loss for us on mon = 2points lost for Buf + 2 points won for Yotes, 4pt swing.

Its definitely not over. I tend to look at it through just surviving to another day. Like last week against the STARS, Talk about HUGE! I did not want to go into our first showdown with a chance at being down by 1 if we won in reg....When we lost to the Stars I could sleep well and get ready for whatever the showdown would bring, and it was freakin nail biting even with the amazing STARS come from behind win....THANK YOU LINDY! So I was tonight, without nearly the DRAMA that was the STARS game but as before I think it is HUGE to lose the game directly before and after any match up with the Yotes, in order to mitigate and possible damage.

We have hit a huge lucky streak as of late. Arizona and Edmonton wining games like crazy. Buffalo holding steady. I think people are just nervous to celebrate too early.
- Buffalo-Sabres

I'm with that brother, for sure, but that usually doesn't equate to low posts, usually its pretty nerve racking in here, not tonight.....

Pretty much. It is getting close to being over.
- rmiethaner

And technically I believe if we lose our next 3 in regulation, we will have it clinched, because we would be 8 points behind AZ with 4 games left, and no chance to catch them in ROW at that point, so we wouldn't even need the AZ point against SJ.

There is no subtraction. It's points lost by Buf PLUS points won by Yotes. Reg loss for us on mon = 2points lost for Buf + 2 points won for Yotes, 4pt swing.
- Herzeleid

So what happens when Buffalo Gains a point?

And technically I believe if we lose our next 3 in regulation, we will have it clinched, because we would be 8 points behind AZ with 4 games left, and no chance to catch them in ROW at that point, so we wouldn't even need the AZ point against SJ.
- markyjoe

That is COREECT my Good Sir

Monday is huge

Zemgus please help me understand your Magic Number process.....



I'm stoned

11/20

Magic number is 9.

Down 6 points with 7 games to go.
- rmiethaner

I think there is some weird math going on here?

Is the magic number not 8? Since Sabres lose tiebreaker?

Zemgus please help me understand your Magic Number process.....



I'm stoned
- MEBSabresFAN

P.S. I get that you subtract from your number with every Arizona Pt won and subtract with every Buffalo Pt lost. But shouldn't the Magic Number increase when we win games? How can it stay static if we reduce the differential between us, I can't find a way to avoid the sliding scale.

So what happens when Buffalo Gains a point?
- MEBSabresFAN

If we only get 1 point (OT loss), then it's 1 point lost by Buf (+1) and two points won by the Yotes (+2), which bring 11/20 to 14/20, making the magic number 6. 6 more points lost by Buf/won by Yotes and we clinch 30th.

I think there is some weird math going on here?

Is the magic number not 8? Since Sabres lose tiebreaker?
- NEDinED

We don't lose tie breakers

I think there is some weird math going on here?

Is the magic number not 8? Since Sabres lose tiebreaker?
- NEDinED

I thought about this but since technically we still have a chance to be able to win a tiebreaker, it's going by us having at least 1 less point than them.

That is COREECT my Good Sir

Monday is huge
- MEBSabresFAN

Agreed, and I am ready to get back to rooting for wins, so lose these three in regulation, finish the job and have fun the last week of the season. (Especially if the Isles continue to struggle.)

P.S. I get that you subtract from your number with every Arizona Pt won and subtract with every Buffalo Pt lost. But shouldn't the Magic Number increase when we win games? How can it stay static if we reduce the differential between us, I can't find a way to avoid the sliding scale.
- MEBSabresFAN

Becuse once we get to at least 20/20, it doesn't matter how many points we get because it will be statistically impossible for us to not finish 30th. If we get too many point the only thing that happens is that we don't reach 20/20.

If we only get 1 point (OT loss), then it's 1 point lost by Buf (+1) and two points won by the Yotes (+2), which bring 11/20 to 14/20, making the magic number 6. 6 more points lost by Buf/won by Yotes and we clinch 30th.
- Herzeleid

Ok, I can follow the logic when the 20 is the Place Holder.


I think my Magic Number works as well, and I started mine from your original post some time ago and went with a different algorithm that I believe is also valid. Don't you?

Just for the sake of having fun with numbers.

My "Magic Number" moves based upon the number of points lost/won by both the Sabres and Yotes.

My Magic Number is currently 8 (this is how)

We have 7 games left with a possible 14pts to win/lose

Arizona has 6 games left with a possible 12pts to win/lose

So our Magic Number is currently at "8" because we win the TIE-Breakers

I thought about this but since technically we still have a chance to be able to win a tiebreaker, it's going by us having at least 1 less point than them.
- Herzeleid

Its impossible to catch them in TieBreakers and have the Tiebreakers matter, we wouldn't be ties we would be ahead so better to calculate with assumption that we win tiebreakers

Its impossible to catch them in TieBreakers and have the Tiebreakers matter, we wouldn't be ties we would be ahead so better to calculate with assumption that we win tiebreakers
- MEBSabresFAN

Right now you have to count tiebreakers, because If worse case scenario happened, and we went 7-0 (all ROWs) and Phx went 4-2 (all shootout wins, we would still lose the tiebreaker).

Mathematically it is possible to still lose the tiebreaker

Right now you have to count tiebreakers, because If worse case scenario happened, and we went 7-0 (all ROWs) and Phx went 4-2 (all shootout wins, we would still lose the tiebreaker).

Mathematically it is possible to still lose the tiebreaker
- markyjoe

If we somehow win in Reg on monday, we would win the tiebreaker even our ROW is the same.

I thought about this but since technically we still have a chance to be able to win a tiebreaker, it's going by us having at least 1 less point than them.
- Herzeleid

We would have to win at least 6 games to catch up in ROW. I don't see that happening.

If we somehow win in Reg on monday, we would win the tiebreaker even our ROW is the same.
- Herzeleid

Right, forgot that, so even more of a reason to count based on tiebreaker.

Right now you have to count tiebreakers, because If worse case scenario happened, and we went 7-0 (all ROWs) and Phx went 4-2 (all shootout wins, we would still lose the tiebreaker).

Mathematically it is possible to still lose the tiebreaker
- markyjoe

Mathematically its possible, but thats almost like saying mathematically New Jersey can make playoffs. Big Stretch.

11/20

Magic number is 9.

Down 6 points with 7 games to go.
- rmiethaner

The Magic Number is not 9!

If we lost the next 4 games, your process would put us at Magic Number -1

In my process we would go from our "8" tonight to -2 Clinched in either case.

If we lost the next 3 games your process would have us at "1"

In my process we would be at "0" Clinched and we hold the tiebreakers. My process is Valid, yours is invalid.

Mathematically its possible, but thats almost like saying mathematically New Jersey can make playoffs. Big Stretch.
- NEDinED

My process accounts for ALL points gained in Tie Breakers, in Reg Lose/ Reg Win/ Overtime Win/ etc......it works....

I played out the process already for you guys. check it out....I'm not trying to prove anything, I'm a Social Studies teacher, I don't do math......but I can't validate his method using stated examples.