Zemgus please help me understand your Magic Number process.....



I'm stoned
- MEBSabresFAN

The Magic Number is not 9!

If we lost the next 4 games, your process would put us at Magic Number -1

In my process we would go from our "8" tonight to -2 Clinched in either case.

If we lost the next 3 games your process would have us at "1"

In my process we would be at "0" Clinched and we hold the tiebreakers. My process is Valid, yours is invalid.
- MEBSabresFAN

If we lost the next four games, it would be eight points gained (number of points lost in a 2 point hockey game).

Magic number would be one to get to twenty.

I am counting UP to 20. lol

We would have to win at least 6 games to catch up in ROW. I don't see that happening.
- NEDinED

Right but it's not Impossible

The --/20 thing is for clinching purposes, therefore it needs to be 100% certain. But yes 19/20 would still most likely finish 30th.

Also keep in mind the --/20 thing was made when we were both closer in ROW and it was more likely that we could win the tiebreaker. Then the Yotes beat us and detroit adding two to their ROW.

My process accounts for ALL points gained in Tie Breakers, in Reg Lose/ Reg Win/ Overtime Win/ etc......it works....

I played out the process already for you guys. check it out....I'm not trying to prove anything, I'm a Social Studies teacher, I don't do math......but I can't validate his method using stated examples.
- MEBSabresFAN

All we really need to know is we need a combination of 4 wins by coyotes or loses by sabres. I feel good about that.

Right but it's not Impossible

The --/20 thing is for clinching purposes, therefore it needs to be 100% certain. But yes 19/20 would still most likely finish 30th.
- Herzeleid

Haha okay. I guess if we want to be official about it. I would be having some sort of freak out if Sabres went on a winning streak like that.

Mathematically its possible, but thats almost like saying mathematically New Jersey can make playoffs. Big Stretch.
- NEDinED

I'm not saying it's going to happen, just that small mathematical chance, that when you put pen to paper, you have to account for.

But as I mentioned earlier, just lose these next 3 in regulation and nothing else matters. If we lose to the Coyotes Mon in regulation, we can technically clinch 30th, even before their next games starts, if the Chicao game ends before their Friday night luck drop.

Monday night is AZs last stand possibly.

I would hope, Ennis, the other first, and a prospect or two would be a enough to land Kessel. Sign Justin Williams or bring back Chris Stewart for the second line. Mike Green to be our PP QB.
- Mentalorgasm5

I wouldn't consider signing Chris Stewart with monopoly money. He stinks. It's a bad, bad idea.

Grigs with talent will be very good.
- Herzeleid

I know you're a big supporter of his.

What do you think his ceiling is, and/or his realistic expectation?

He's very difficult for me to figure out other than assuming he's going to be a winger next year unless they move Girgensons to wing.

If we can some how lose in Regulation Monday, our Magic Number would go from tonight "8" to -2pts from Sabres lose, -2pts from Arizona Win = Magic Number "4"

Just a HUGE 4pt Night, that is why if I could sign up for OT Win I would right now, because it would really hurt Arizona's chances in the few games remaining to make up the difference.

If we win in OT (don't worry about the shoot out thing right now) our magic number would be affected by Arizona gaining +1 pt for the night moving the Number to "7" but our winning moving it back down to "Magic Number" "9"

Prior to tonight's game, we had a Max Pt total of 16pts remaining. You get the Magic Number by subtracting the Difference in points between Arizona and Buffalo which is currently 6pts (and we hold the Tie Breakers) so you have 16 - 6 = 10

Buffalo Lost in Regulation Tonight. That produces Magic Number as shown above (10) - 2pts for our loss of possible points = Magic Number "8"

Buffalo currently has a MAX PT Chance at 14 pts

Arizona has a MAX PT Chance of 12pts

Lets Summarize , Shall we..?

Step 1: Find the Magic Number Equation (Possible Total Points To Gain) shortened to PG (Possible Gain)

PG Buffalo = 14
PG Arizona = 12
Finding the Magic Number (Subtract the points Arizona is separated by) SS (Subtract Separation)

3/29/2015 Equation:

Buffalo PG = 14 Arizona PG = 12 (SS) = 6

Buff PG - SS = Magic Number

14 - 6 = 8pts to Clinch Currently

If we lost the next four games, it would be eight points gained (number of points lost in a 2 point hockey game).

Magic number would be one to get to twenty.

I am counting UP to 20. lol
- rmiethaner

That's my point exactly, your method shows us needing 1 point if we lose our next four games. IF we LOSE OUR NEXT FOR GAMES WE CLINCH THE SPOT, we don't need another pt!

If we can some how lose in Regulation Monday, our Magic Number would go from tonight "8" to -2pts from Sabres lose, -2pts from Arizona Win = Magic Number "4"

Just a HUGE 4pt Night, that is why if I could sign up for OT Win I would right now, because it would really hurt Arizona's chances in the few games remaining to make up the difference.

If we win in OT (don't worry about the shoot out thing right now) our magic number would be affected by Arizona gaining +1 pt for the night moving the Number to "7" but our winning moving it back down to "Magic Number" "9"

Prior to tonight's game, we had a Max Pt total of 16pts remaining. You get the Magic Number by subtracting the Difference in points between Arizona and Buffalo which is currently 6pts (and we hold the Tie Breakers) so you have 16 - 6 = 10

Buffalo Lost in Regulation Tonight. That produces Magic Number as shown above (10) - 2pts for our loss of possible points = Magic Number "8"

Buffalo currently has a MAX PT Chance at 14 pts

Arizona has a MAX PT Chance of 12pts

Lets Summarize , Shall we..?

Step 1: Find the Magic Number Equation (Possible Total Points To Gain) shortened to PG (Possible Gain)

PG Buffalo = 14
PG Arizona = 12
Finding the Magic Number (Subtract the points Arizona is separated by) SS (Subtract Separation)

3/29/2015 Equation:

Buffalo PG = 14 Arizona PG = 12 (SS) = 6

Buff PG - SS = Magic Number

14 - 6 = 8pts to Clinch Currently
- MEBSabresFAN

A magician never reveals his secret

A magician never reveals his secret
- NEDinED

No secrets, we all love doing this crazy stuff, he's the one who gave me the idea to keep track, but I didn't know I was creating a different Magic Number to his until recently. So I figured I would run some equations using his vs. using mine. His is fine for fun, but it is not Valid, its a pretty good measuring stick, but its not Valid.

His method has us needing 1pt to clinch because we would lose 8pts and and his magic Number is 9 (it shouldn't be) but if it is he just subtracts our lost points without regard to the fact by losing 4 straight Arizona gains 2pts and the Separation of Points grows to 8 and you can't make up 8pts in three games its impossible.

That's my point exactly, your method shows us needing 1 point if we lose our next four games. IF we LOSE OUR NEXT FOR GAMES WE CLINCH THE SPOT, we don't need another pt!
- MEBSabresFAN

Well, one of those losses would be a two point gain for Arizona....so 21/20.

It all works out.

No secrets, we all love doing this crazy stuff, he's the one who gave me the idea to keep track, but I didn't know I was creating a different Magic Number to his until recently. So I figured I would run some equations using his vs. using mine. His is fine for fun, but it is not Valid, its a pretty good measuring stick, but its not Valid.

His method has us needing 1pt to clinch because we would lose 8pts and and his magic Number is 9 (it shouldn't be) but if it is he just subtracts our lost points without regard to the fact by losing 4 straight Arizona gains 2pts and the Separation of Points grows to 8 and you can't make up 8pts in three games its impossible.
- MEBSabresFAN

Haha I know I'm just poking fun

So many formulas.

I did the same sort of thing for my March madness pool. Made this huge spreadsheet. But basically I'm one of the few people who didn't pick kentucky haha

Mondays Magic Number Fun

Current Magic Number (8pts)

Buffalo Lose in Regulation = -2pts

Arizona win in Regulation = -2pts

Magic Number would be (4pts)

Buffalo Win in Regulation = +2pts

Arizona Loss in Regulation = +2pts

Magic Number would be (12pts)

Buffalo OT Loss = +1 -1
Arizona OT Win = -1 -1

Magic Number would be (6pts)

Buffalo OT Win = +1 +1
Arizona OT Lose = -1 +1

Magic Number would be (10pts)

I wouldn't consider signing Chris Stewart with monopoly money. He stinks. It's a bad, bad idea.
- kingcong39

I wouldn't mind bringing in guys like Frolik and Petry next season. Better then average roster players that can hold the fort so we don't have all youngins playing top line/pairing minutes

Well, one of those losses would be a two point gain for Arizona....so 21/20.

It all works out.
- rmiethaner

That's why the real magic number is currently (8pts) not (9pts)

That's why the real magic number is currently (8pts) not (9pts)
- MEBSabresFAN

You are counting down to a point differential.

I am counting up to a total number of points lost and gained.

It does not matter. I blame the McEichel website and twitter feed.

That's why the real magic number is currently (8pts) not (9pts)
- MEBSabresFAN

No, it's 9...only so I can do this:

How's this:

new number 0/2. Add 1 for every game we lose or Arizona wins in Reg/OT.

Once we get to at least 2/2, then --/20 becomes --/19.

That's why the real magic number is currently (8pts) not (9pts)
- MEBSabresFAN

We have the extra point because we include the possibility of us winning a tiebreaker.
This has been solved above ^^

We are currently at:

11/20

0/2

Basically if we lose in Reg/OT on Monday,
--/20 becomes --/19.

Anyone?

Anyone?
- Herzeleid

I did not want to comment to break up your hatty. And five in a row is the Lemiux special.

Well done.