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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Forget About Phil Kessel Go After This UFA...
Author Message
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 25 @ 7:56 PM ET
He's not gonna command anything over 2.
- Victoro311



Oh the benefits of the KHL (frank)ing over so many players... they will take a dirt contract in the US at first just to get paid.
jchst22
Joined: 01.24.2013

Jun 25 @ 8:01 PM ET
Can't keep trying to find 3rd line plugs to play with Crosby and Malkin. Time to let elite talent play with elite talent
Mentalorgasm5
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "F-" Robert, NY
Joined: 06.29.2007

Jun 25 @ 8:02 PM ET
If only hockey was always played at even strength.
willi
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Canada
Joined: 01.30.2015

Jun 25 @ 8:03 PM ET
At 28, Sharp had a 34 goal, 37 assist (71 point) campaign. Hornqvist hasn't hit 30 goals in 5 years. Sorry, but it's really outlandish for you to believe that AT THE SAME AGE, CAP HIT, ETC. Hornqvist is the better player. Let me know if Hornqvist ever makes it onto Sweden's Olympic roster.
- TommyHawk


2010 olympics ?
poopmouth
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 02.02.2007

Jun 25 @ 8:04 PM ET
Kessel's not worth a low 1st rounder, 2 salary dumps and a good young prospect. Do people listen to themselves
- bmoney411


I do listen to myself! here's my rebuttal to your criticism of my offer.

well, the closest thing we have to compare is the Rick Nash deal from a few years ago.

Good winger on a long, expensive contract. Also dealt a 3rd rounder.

Dubinsky making significant money with 4.2 cap hit.
Anisimov agreeing to a contract right after the trade that made him a significant 3.2 cap hit.
Tim Erixon who was a pretty good prospect. Wasn't that highly touted I don't think. Can't find anything now that says that he was super highly touted at that time.
1st round pick.
3rd rounder.
The 3rd rounders baaaasically cancel out for the purposes of this analysis.

So the closest comparable i can find to a Kessel trade has...
one great player making a lot of money for two okay players making moderate amounts of money, a decent prospect, and a 1st rounder.

so in my back of the envelope quick trade offer, i said two overpaid dudes plus Olli Maatta. Olli Maatta is not a "good young prospect." At this point he is a bona fide #2-3 defenseman who makes a million bucs this year. That is damn valuable.

I'd argue that if the pens wanted a 1st rounder and a decent prospect like the 2014 version of erixon for Maatta, they could get that.

Therefore, my original offer of Sutter, Scuderi, and Maatta for Kessel is not that absurd. it actually lines up pretty well with the Rick Nash trade. But hey.. i'll throw in an extra 2nd rounder to make up for the fact that Sutter and Scuds are overpaid as opposed to appropriately paid like Dubinsky and Anisimov were.

The salary going back to CBJ in the deal is essentially what allowed Nash to have any trade value, period. Players who make what they are worth simply aren't that valuable in a trade.

However, Toronto doesn't HAVE to trade him. So maybe they'll be able to wait for a team to super overpay.

Trade value = (Player's talent - what player would make on open market per year) * years left on contract

the question we must ask is.... what would Kessel make per year on the open market?

There's a huge difference in saying a player is good, and saying he has a lot of trade value.

And regardless, my initial offer was about what i'd be okay with the pens paying. not what they might actually have to pay.

it was just luck that it actually did line up relatively well with the Nash deal
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Jun 25 @ 8:04 PM ET
Can't keep trying to find 3rd line plugs to play with Crosby and Malkin. Time to let elite talent play with elite talent
- jchst22

Ok, who you got in mind
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

Jun 25 @ 8:12 PM ET
Come on I wanna hear at least that we have a deal for Tikhonov.

Bring top six help (Frolik, Oshie, Kessel or whatever) and I'll be happy.

Btw, Comeau deserves at least $1.5M.
nh4442
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: @MyDaddysInTheAF, PA
Joined: 05.28.2010

Jun 25 @ 8:15 PM ET
Rock solid sources tell me Penguins in play for Joel Ward. Team had good discussions today.

That's from one of the 93.7 fan guys...

Anyways. Names I'm seeing on twitter from all the fake and not fake people..

Pens interested in......

Ward
Lucic
MSL
Kessel (of course)
Frolik
Oshie (of course)

And apparently we deals in place with plotnikov AND tikhonov.. Just no #'s till July 1st...

BTW its 0313 here overseas and I can't sleep with all these rumors lol
stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Jun 25 @ 8:18 PM ET
When you continue to raise that percentage of top four players closer to the 50% of the cap level (would be 47%), there becomes bigger problems. This has been one of the worst problems of this organization, as what happens, you have to fill your roster with Craig Adams types. You can't continue to trade away young talented assets, who do fit nicely in the cap. Outside of that, we will be looking for another Dman if Pouliot goes the other way. Enter Franson and his nice 5.5 cap hit that will be coming. I see lots of problems with this. It's Pouliot, Kapanen, another first round pick being sent out of town (the practice has got to stop at some point). Without a second round pick in getting that rental Daniel Winnick, we could be staring at our first pick in the third round ... this coming after a draft where we had a 2nd and 7th.

Same old poop with this organization, if this type of deal goes down.

- Oneonta Penguin


I agree with you if we are looking to build a good foundation for the long term. But where you and I differ in opinion is that I firmly believe that if we dont win the cup again over the next 3 years we wont be winning it again for a very long time. We have been so spoiled with talent that we forget to look around the league at teams that have gone decades without a sniff at the cup, or the teams that have never had a taste.

Knocking on the door are Edmonton, Buffalo, and no one in our system or who we will draft over the next couple years are going to help us compete against that kind of talent.

Once the sun sets on the Crosby era, it sets on the Pens cup chances.

If we don't throw everything at the next couple years to win the cup we dont deserve to win another one. You dont waste a generational talents prime years.

bmoney411
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "I don't care about being "better" . I care about building a cup contender." -Iggysbff, ON
Joined: 07.03.2009

Jun 25 @ 8:36 PM ET
Maatta has a huge role and did last year too. He is expected to be paired with Letang. Factor that he also comes with a rookie salary. We would have to sign Franson etc for 5+. I don't think it will happen unless we can get a killer deal.
- BourbonCounty

I made a mistake saying Maatta doesn't have a significant role then. Pens still did well this year despite him not playing for the most part. This deal like I said before would be really hard to pull off. Leafs do have a lot of depth at D though. I wouldn't want the leafs to deal Kessel to the Pens and not at least get back Maatta and another good young player. Especially if we are taking back not 1 but 2 salary dumps.
mmonana120
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.30.2015

Jun 25 @ 8:44 PM ET
I made a mistake saying Maatta doesn't have a significant role then. Pens still did well this year despite him not playing for the most part. This deal like I said before would be really hard to pull off. Leafs do have a lot of depth at D though. I wouldn't want the leafs to deal Kessel to the Pens and not at least get back Maatta and another good young player. Especially if we are taking back not 1 but 2 salary dumps.
- bmoney411


Other than the obvious top 4 (Crosby, Malkin, Fluery, Letang) Maatta is the only untouchable. Just remove any thought in your mind of getting Maatta. I am on the fence about the Kessel trade because I don't like the thought of players that would have to leave (as in prospects, not the salary dumps). But if it does happen, the best you get back is DP and I doubt that. Sadly, it most likely be Kap.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jun 25 @ 8:47 PM ET
I made a mistake saying Maatta doesn't have a significant role then. Pens still did well this year despite him not playing for the most part. This deal like I said before would be really hard to pull off. Leafs do have a lot of depth at D though. I wouldn't want the leafs to deal Kessel to the Pens and not at least get back Maatta and another good young player. Especially if we are taking back not 1 but 2 salary dumps.
- bmoney411


I'd be hesitant doing maatta for Kessel alone.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jun 25 @ 8:47 PM ET
I made a mistake saying Maatta doesn't have a significant role then. Pens still did well this year despite him not playing for the most part. This deal like I said before would be really hard to pull off. Leafs do have a lot of depth at D though. I wouldn't want the leafs to deal Kessel to the Pens and not at least get back Maatta and another good young player. Especially if we are taking back not 1 but 2 salary dumps.
- bmoney411


GMJR said earlier that Maatta is on his untouchable list. They won't trade him. I imagine they'd move Pouliot for the right price.
jchst22
Joined: 01.24.2013

Jun 25 @ 8:50 PM ET
Other than the obvious top 4 (Crosby, Malkin, Fluery, Letang) Maatta is the only untouchable. Just remove any thought in your mind of getting Maatta. I am on the fence about the Kessel trade because I don't like the thought of players that would have to leave (as in prospects, not the salary dumps). But if it does happen, the best you get back is DP and I doubt that. Sadly, it most likely be Kap.
- mmonana120

Don't see losing kap as a big deal. Sure it sucks if he succeeds after you trade him with his cheap contract, but that's a big if. You know what you have in kessel already. And in his prime
nh4442
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: @MyDaddysInTheAF, PA
Joined: 05.28.2010

Jun 25 @ 8:51 PM ET
Oh man ek just tweeted pens are looking to get belesky rights

Cmon etem and beleskys rights for spaling
SuperHenderson13
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 10.13.2008

Jun 25 @ 8:51 PM ET
I'd be hesitant doing maatta for Kessel alone.
- drummer829

me too.

not sure that'd be in the penguins best interest.

not sure what i'd offer for him. probably not much because i dont think we need/want him.

poopmouth
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 02.02.2007

Jun 25 @ 8:56 PM ET
I'd be hesitant doing maatta for Kessel alone.
- drummer829


as you should be. what would Maatta make on the open market? $6 million per year?

He makes $1 million now.

He is also hitting RFA next year, so the pay raise to market value is coming next year.

Therefore, Maatta has $5 million worth of value as an asset to the team. 6 (what he's worth) - 1 (what he makes) = 5 excess.

Kessel is on an open market contract. He might even get less than 8 per year. Kessel does not have a lot of trade value. He *should* have no trade value, by definition of a market level deal.

Therefore, the Leafs win a Kessel for Maatta trade by $5 mil of value.

therefore, for the trade to be fair, the Leafs must take something like Spaling + Sutter as well. Guys who make about 5 million dollars over the course of this year, and are probably actually worth much less than that. Throw in the 2nd rounder just to make everyone feel warm and fuzzy.

If the Pens give up good prospects/inexpensive NHLers and don't also salary dump players who are overpaid, then I'll be upset they made the deal.

I'll be excited for Kessel! he's awesome! but that doesn't mean i'd think it was a good trade.
so_buzz11
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Home, PA
Joined: 05.14.2015

Jun 25 @ 8:59 PM ET
The Avs actually traded for Soderberg's rights? They must be planning to throw 5 + mil at him. Idiots and disappointing for us.

Also makes me think there may be a ROR/Kessel trade on the horizon.

- Victoro311

How many calls is Soderberg's agent getting right now? If a team was interested in him, they better be calling his agent.
SuperHenderson13
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 10.13.2008

Jun 25 @ 9:03 PM ET
How many calls is Soderberg's agent getting right now? If a team was interested in him, they better be calling his agent.
- so_buzz11

that's weird to trade for rights when you can talk to him now.

my guess would be that COL is willing to throw the money at him and make him sign before he has the chance to receive real and hard offers from other teams.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jun 25 @ 9:16 PM ET
that's weird to trade for rights when you can talk to him now.

my guess would be that COL is willing to throw the money at him and make him sign before he has the chance to receive real and hard offers from other teams.

- SuperHenderson13


I think it's crazy for a player to sign now before exploring his true market value. If I'm his agent I say to the Avs "if you're interested today, you'll be interested next week".
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 25 @ 9:20 PM ET
I think it's crazy for a player to sign now before exploring his true market value. If I'm his agent I say to the Avs "if you're interested today, you'll be interested next week".
- madmike71


Exactly. But still. Trading for his rights screams that they're gonna throw 5-5.5 mil at him. Not sure any team will match that. Maybe Nashville or Florida? Soderberg's as good as an Av.
so_buzz11
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Home, PA
Joined: 05.14.2015

Jun 25 @ 9:20 PM ET
Oh man ek just tweeted pens are looking to get belesky rights

Cmon etem and beleskys rights for spaling

- nh4442

I heard EK got the Beleskey rumor from this tweet:

madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jun 25 @ 9:23 PM ET
Exactly. But still. Trading for his rights screams that they're gonna throw 5-5.5 mil at him. Not sure any team will match that. Maybe Nashville or Florida? Soderberg's as good as an Av.
- Victoro311


Probably true. He's not worth that. I wanted him on the Pens, but not at that price.
nh4442
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: @MyDaddysInTheAF, PA
Joined: 05.28.2010

Jun 25 @ 9:24 PM ET
I heard EK got the Beleskey rumor from this tweet:

- so_buzz11


I heard he got it from a... source

I love draft day/night rumors. So many good ones out there
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 25 @ 9:26 PM ET
Probably true. He's not worth that. I wanted him on the Pens, but not at that price.
- madmike71


Same
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