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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers 'Cap Hell' Greatly Exaggerated, Alumni and More
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Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 20 @ 8:51 PM ET
Why are you leaving out Colaiacovo? And why are you acting like the difference in relative Corsi and offensive Zone start % between MacDonald and MDZ and LSchenn was large? Because it wasn't. You're also ignoring the fact that MacDonald was stuck playing with Grossmann far more than either MDZ or LSchenn were. And that MacDonald was used as a top pairing shutdown defenseman in the first month of the season when Coburn was out, which meant his CF% was around 46 when he got hurt.
- Feanor



I only included people who played a majority of the Flyers games. Should have mentioned that, sorry. Carlo only played 33 games and was healthy scratched most of the time so I didn't include him. To be fair to Carlo, he was super super sheltered, but his possession numbers were actually unbelievable in those sheltered minutes. A 19.0 Relative Corsi compared to Mark Streit at 3.0 who had the second best. Different minutes and competition so I don't want to compare the two, just to show Carlo actually did a very good job for what was asked.

MDZ actually had the second highest Quality of Competition after Schultz (I'm not including Coburn. Obviously he was tops, but he's gone now). Especially after Coby left MDZ was thrust into being essentially our top d man. So to compare him to Schenn and AMac with the two worst Relative QoC (minus Coliacocopuffs) is unfair. We all know Schenn isn't great but I'd defend him as being a pretty darn reliable 4-5, if a bit spotty at times. Contract is probably the difference between the two along with the 4 year age gap. If you want to compare AMac to Schenn in terms of performance, that's not exactly a high bar to be fair. As for AMac I'd argue that by the end of the season Berube knew more about what he had in him than in the first month of the season when Coby went down. I don't know if he had the highest QoC that month. I don't have that stat. If he did, he finished the year with the second lowest, so I would personally put more trust in the rest of the season than just that month, if it is true.

You are also totally right about him having the most minutes played with Grossmann. But go to this site, and you'll notice AMac really didn't have a partner. He played 207 min with him; 142 with MDZ; 131 with Carlo (who had the lowest QoC by a mile if you include him, and is quite a lot of min with him for a guy who only played 33 games); 125 with Streit. Mac was pretty much patchworked into our d pairings.
http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 20 @ 8:52 PM ET
Haha I was being sarcastic. I agree with you -- I was pointing out that very such thing. The year we traded for him, throughout the entire year, both with the Flyers and Isles every single player on the Flyers and Isles except for Adam Hall (d zone 4C specialist) and Eric Boulton (lug fighter extraordinaire) did better apart from AMac than with him. Even in his cushier minutes with the Flyers.

I'll talk about AMac this year too if you want, given his change of circumstance to more sheltered minutes.

- Mononoke


Your first point is incorrect. The list of Flyers that had a better CF% with MacDonald than without him in 13-14 (minimum 40 minutes):

Emery, Lecavalier, Streit, Hall, Rinaldo

http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

And to talk about this year, here's the list of Flyers that had a better CF% with MacDonald than without him in 14-15.

Mason, Simmonds, Couturier, Read, Umberger, Lecavalier, Colaiacovo, Streit, Laughton, Coburn

http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 20 @ 8:52 PM ET
This new poster intrigues me.
- Tomahawk

obviously somebody's alt.... oh well, let the amac wars continue!
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 20 @ 8:53 PM ET
I'm looking up Cheryl Ladd posters from my youth and you're contemplating full frontal male nudity.

I think you bled the excitement out of me.

- mayorofangrytown


I'm here to help
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:53 PM ET

Fans are hardly reliable. Just you apparently. Dig into AMac in season's past before, and there is nothing to believe he can really change his game. He's turning 29. Sometimes player flaws are so ingrained they just can't change much. Since he's a Flyer for forever, I really hope he can develop his game even with sheltered minutes. But sometimes a player is what he is. All I can think of as I'm typing this is....DOM BROWN DOM BROWN DOM BROWN.


- Mononoke


Speaking of limp generalizations, especially the Dom Brown reference. There's plenty to believe his game can really change. Maybe with the Flyers he will finally be used correctly, in the right role to suit his skill set. Funny things happen to players when they're put in situations that they're not quite capable of handling, versus when they're put in situations they're better suited for.



Agreed. Partly. The baseball example I mulled over putting in. You just admitted they tell you what happened. Agreed. Yet, what is a "why" but a synthesis of a lot of different "what's"? The "what's" are how we come to determine the why, as best as we can determine it.


- Mononoke


The what is subjective. The problem with analytics is a lot of cases is they can be used to support whatever you want them to say. For example with Corsi, A good player playing consistently with bad players will get hammered by Corsi, while a good player playing with great ones will get a boost.
What do you think would happen with MacDonald's relative Corsi if he plays the majority of his shifts with the Giroux line?





And asking you to provide something concrete is an attack and makes you not want to continue? Jeez.....if that's the way to tucker you out, lol I will TAKE it.

- Mononoke


Nope, discussing the poster, me, is the attack. That's your real agenda here isn't it? I'll discuss the stats with you all night. Anything else, not interested. So what's it going to be. Discuss the stats, or discuss me?
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:54 PM ET
obviously somebody's alt.... oh well, let the amac wars continue!
- JoeRussomanno

should we take bets on who it is?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:55 PM ET
obviously somebody's alt.... oh well, let the amac wars continue!
- JoeRussomanno


Obviously, and with an agenda!
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:55 PM ET
should we take bets on who it is?
- nails


I swear it's not me. I just got back from the movies. My alt is tanget_man
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:56 PM ET
I swear it's not me. I just got back from the movies. My alt is tanget_man
- Jsaquella

I bet TM's alt is skippy
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:57 PM ET
I bet TM's alt is skippy
- nails


Yup.
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:58 PM ET
Yup.
- Jsaquella

good movie?
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 20 @ 8:58 PM ET
should we take bets on who it is?
- nails

i got 5 bucks that he's from delaware or has lived there at one point... those guys love arguing with mjl
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:59 PM ET
i got 5 bucks that he's from delaware or has lived there at one point... those guys love arguing with mjl
- JoeRussomanno

I was thinking west coast maybe.
TobyFlenderson
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Annex, Scranton, PA
Joined: 06.13.2013

Jul 20 @ 8:59 PM ET
Dom Brown stinks
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:00 PM ET
Obviously, and with an agenda!
- MJL

yes to argue with you until angels sound trumpets...or the mods nuke their accounts
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:01 PM ET
it's on now!
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:01 PM ET
good movie?
- nails


Yeah, kids really wanted to see Inside Out, the new Pixar movie. It was really good. Deep enough for parents, lot of laughs. Definitely had some food for thought.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:01 PM ET
I was thinking west coast maybe.
- nails


2Real can't spell that well
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:02 PM ET
I was thinking west coast maybe.
- nails

west coast ppl tend to be pretty chill...imo anyway
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:02 PM ET
Yeah, kids really wanted to see Inside Out, the new Pixar movie. It was really good. Deep enough for parents, lot of laughs. Definitely had some food for thought.
- Jsaquella


Mine loved it as well.
two of them balling at different parts.
the after stuff was pretty funny.
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:03 PM ET
2Real can't spell that well
- Jsaquella

especially when he gets fired up
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:04 PM ET
west coast ppl tend to be pretty chill...imo anyway
- JoeRussomanno


they're all transplants, so they arrive there with east coast grumpy baggage.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:04 PM ET
Mine loved it as well.
two of them balling at different parts.
the after stuff was pretty funny.

- nails


Yeah, we were cracking up at the teacher's brain and the bus driver's. It was really good. We saw the minions and my kids love them, but I thought Inside Out was a better movie.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:04 PM ET
especially when he gets fired up
- nails


COBURN!!!
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 20 @ 9:06 PM ET
I only included people who played a majority of the Flyers games. Should have mentioned that, sorry. Carlo only played 33 games and was healthy scratched most of the time so I didn't include him. To be fair to Carlo, he was super super sheltered, but his possession numbers were actually unbelievable in those sheltered minutes. A 19.0 Relative Corsi compared to Mark Streit at 3.0 who had the second best. Different minutes and competition so I don't want to compare the two, just to show Carlo actually did a very good job for what was asked.

MDZ actually had the second highest Quality of Competition after Schultz (I'm not including Coburn. Obviously he was tops, but he's gone now). Especially after Coby left MDZ was thrust into being essentially our top d man. So to compare him to Schenn and AMac with the two worst Relative QoC (minus Coliacocopuffs) is unfair. We all know Schenn isn't great but I'd defend him as being a pretty darn reliable 4-5, if a bit spotty at times. Contract is probably the difference between the two along with the 4 year age gap. If you want to compare AMac to Schenn in terms of performance, that's not exactly a high bar to be fair. As for AMac I'd argue that by the end of the season Berube knew more about what he had in him than in the first month of the season when Coby went down. I don't know if he had the highest QoC that month. I don't have that stat. If he did, he finished the year with the second lowest, so I would personally put more trust in the rest of the season than just that month, if it is true.

You are also totally right about him having the most minutes played with Grossmann. But go to this site, and you'll notice AMac really didn't have a partner. He played 207 min with him; 142 with MDZ; 131 with Carlo (who had the lowest QoC by a mile if you include him, and is quite a lot of min with him for a guy who only played 33 games); 125 with Streit. Mac was pretty much patchworked into our d pairings.
http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

- Mononoke


It's a great site.

I can't give you MacDonald's QoC in the first month but I can tell you his OZ start % in his first 12 games was a Couturier-esque 39.8%.

http://hfboards.hockeysfu.../showthread.php?t=1785983

I totally agree with you about how well Colaiacovo did, even taking into account his limited and very sheltered minutes. And also about how MDZ was given quite difficult assignments. But I also have to agree with MJL that it's misleading to just given MacDonald's rank in Corsi Rel without giving the actual numbers, because the gap between him and Schultz and Grossmann is way bigger than the gap between him and the guys above him (apart from Colaiacovo).

I said all last season that MacDonald should be playing with Streit or LSchenn, but as you noticed that guy who got fired moved him around all over the place, including 200+ minutes on the right side of Grossmann. If you want to know how hard it is to put up strong possession numbers playing with him, you can look at AMac's numbers or Mark Streit's. They both tell the same story.

MacDonald
CF% with Grossmann = 45.6
CF% without Grossmann = 50

Streit
CF% with Grossmann = 45.1
CF% without Grossmann = 52.7
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