Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Using AHL Data To Predict NHL Success
Author Message
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jul 20 @ 2:41 PM ET
Any way the Pens can get Pulk from the Wings? I saw he still isn't signed yet.
- sammy87

Sutter + Scuds
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Jul 20 @ 3:21 PM ET
Sutter + Scuds
- dbell646


Man that's one sided.......

Detroit needs to throw in a pick to even things up....
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Jul 20 @ 4:00 PM ET


I met jagr last week at MGM for UFC 189

He was completely wasted and swore at me

" why do u want a fuuuuuu. Picture with me "

Just randomly saw this on a Facebook post, thought it was classic
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Jul 20 @ 4:01 PM ET
So...

interesting numbers i suppose

But what about college rates? They tend to get to the profesh levels later in life

I wonder what the college--> AHL and college --> NHL rates/age are. throw blueger/guentzel in there and the pot looks slightly better for the pens.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jul 20 @ 4:08 PM ET
So...

interesting numbers i suppose

But what about college rates? They tend to get to the profesh levels later in life

I wonder what the college--> AHL and college --> NHL rates/age are. throw blueger/guentzel in there and the pot looks slightly better for the pens.

- ChrisMS


NCAA prospects are underrated.
thickman1178
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.21.2013

Jul 20 @ 4:14 PM ET


I met jagr last week at MGM for UFC 189

He was completely wasted and swore at me

" why do u want a fuuuuuu. Picture with me "

Just randomly saw this on a Facebook post, thought it was classic

- Pens_Burgh



Why does he make it so hard for me to stay mad at him?
Reverend Killtaker
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Alexandria, VA
Joined: 07.02.2008

Jul 20 @ 4:18 PM ET


I met jagr last week at MGM for UFC 189

He was completely wasted and swore at me

" why do u want a fuuuuuu. Picture with me "

Just randomly saw this on a Facebook post, thought it was classic

- Pens_Burgh


I surprised he wasn't asking you "are you the jerk that put this stupid leather hat on my head?"
pensfan024
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: somewhere in, VA
Joined: 09.25.2012

Jul 20 @ 4:26 PM ET
God this place is a graveyard in the off season
- Pens_Burgh


isnt this you first off season with HB?
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Jul 20 @ 4:42 PM ET
isnt this you first off season with HB?
- pensfan024


No sir
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 20 @ 6:24 PM ET
Be interesting to see the data on all the late bloomers - the guns probably didn't do the AHL thing. Just to see what late bloomers could achieve. I'm willing to bet, given an opportunity with patience & the right staff & system, there would be plenty of guys playing in the NHL that aren't because they didn't get those things.
Reverend Killtaker
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Alexandria, VA
Joined: 07.02.2008

Jul 20 @ 6:51 PM ET
Be interesting to see the data on all the late bloomers - the guns probably didn't do the AHL thing. Just to see what late bloomers could achieve. I'm willing to bet, given an opportunity with patience & the right staff & system, there would be plenty of guys playing in the NHL that aren't because they didn't get those things.
- Aussiepenguin


Problem is the NHL isn't a developmental league. If they can't develop and perform in the AHL then it's not in most teams interest to attempt to develop them in an NHL enviorment.
goirish
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 02.08.2010

Jul 20 @ 6:55 PM ET
Biggs isn't a bust! He averaged .75 puts/game in the ECHL. He'll be a Wheeling fan favorite
acdc1206
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Get the Cup back, PA
Joined: 06.13.2007

Jul 20 @ 6:56 PM ET
God this place is a graveyard in the off season
- Pens_Burgh


I may disagree with RW from time to time but the one thing that I appreciate is that he puts out blogs on a nearly daily basis. It seems to make the offseason go faster.
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Jul 20 @ 7:05 PM ET
So apparently in the CBJ draft day video, it shows the Leafs offered #4 overall for picks #8, #34, #38 and #58...

Talk about a price to pay to move up a few picks...

Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Jul 20 @ 7:11 PM ET
I may disagree with RW from time to time but the one thing that I appreciate is that he puts out blogs on a nearly daily basis. It seems to make the offseason go faster.
- acdc1206


Agreed
Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 20 @ 9:42 PM ET
PPG is not the metric you should use to predict defensemen success. Defensemen' snail duty is preventing goals not scoring them. Harrington for example, is going to have a decent NHL career. He's never going to be on the power play but he'll be excellent on the PK. I know it's the summer but anyone who puts any faith in this tool as a means of deciding who gets a shot in the NHL and who does not is lazy and senseless. Same could be said for Farnham, he doesn't get many points but he draws penalties and throws the other team off their game and that can be very helpful in winning games as well.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 20 @ 10:28 PM ET
PPG is not the metric you should use to predict defensemen success. Defensemen' snail duty is preventing goals not scoring them. Harrington for example, is going to have a decent NHL career. He's never going to be on the power play but he'll be excellent on the PK. I know it's the summer but anyone who puts any faith in this tool as a means of deciding who gets a shot in the NHL and who does not is lazy and senseless. Same could be said for Farnham, he doesn't get many points but he draws penalties and throws the other team off their game and that can be very helpful in winning games as well.
- Dcoms


It's not proposed as being precise, they are just trying to elminate as much randomness as possible and identify relevant variables/thresholds.
Brownsoldier
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Altoona
Joined: 06.30.2015

Jul 20 @ 11:09 PM ET
Anyone else watcing the 04 NHL allstar game? Yeah i hate the off season too.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 21 @ 1:02 AM ET
It's not proposed as being precise, they are just trying to elminate as much randomness as possible and identify relevant variables/thresholds.
- jfkst1


Just like Analytics - fitting their data to a past event even though that data is not precise they 'make' a fit.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 21 @ 8:01 AM ET
Just like Analytics - fitting their data to a past event even though that data is not precise they 'make' a fit.
- Aussiepenguin


No, they say how much it does/doesn't fit. In this case, it is very loosely which they admit. There are simply rough thresholds.
Making a fit would imply manipulating the data to suit a conclusion. Which would be an ass backwards way of doing it.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Jul 21 @ 8:36 AM ET
No, they say how much it does/doesn't fit. In this case, it is very loosely which they admit. There are simply rough thresholds.
Making a fit would imply manipulating the data to suit a conclusion. Which would be an ass backwards way of doing it.

- jfkst1


yet much of the analytics crowd does precisely that.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 21 @ 9:00 AM ET
yet much of the analytics crowd does precisely that.
- ChrisMS


Maybe in inferior products and/or according to people that don't understand. The material from NHL Numbers is thorough. Authors are very knowledgeable and more than willing to take questions & criticisms on their products so feel free.
http://nhlnumbers.com/201...hresholds-related-factors
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 21 @ 9:02 AM ET
No, they say how much it does/doesn't fit. In this case, it is very loosely which they admit. There are simply rough thresholds.
Making a fit would imply manipulating the data to suit a conclusion. Which would be an ass backwards way of doing it.

- jfkst1


Making a conclusion is the point of the blog isn't it? Showing these stats is trying to show us who will & won't make it - or implying it might be. Saying Dumo better make the most of this year is surely a borderline make or bust season? Don't D men take longer to develop? So saying 21/22 years old is the limit to break into the NHL is manipulating the data.

Now NHL players are paper players.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 21 @ 9:15 AM ET
Maybe in inferior products and/or according to people that don't understand. The material from NHL Numbers is thorough. Authors are very knowledgeable and more than willing to take questions & criticisms on their products so feel free.
http://nhlnumbers.com/201...hresholds-related-factors

- jfkst1


Had a quick look, will read it when I'm not so tired so I understand it but just quickly, having better stats would surely put you higher in the food chain playing with better players. Eg: Rust starts with Sid or Geno, what are his numbers going to be like against playing with Sutter or Sundqvist? What do they say about Yak? Write him off as a bust due to his stats?

So a guy with low AHL #'s doesn't get the same opportunities as a guy with better #'s. Different development different results different data or do they take that into consideration as I haven't read it? Different guys develop differently & to throw everyone into this same evaluation (on the surface), seems strange & I probably need to read the whole article & it's predecessor.
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jul 21 @ 9:41 AM ET
sats vs eye test, crips vs bloods there will never be peace
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3  Next