I like your take on this.

A lot of people have been really bent out of shape about trading Johns and other prospects, though I have a hard time understanding the anguish. I imagine many people who follow the prospect pool more than I do really want the kids to succeed, and that's totally cool. I don't watch the Icehogs, so maybe I would feel more of an affinity for them if I did and really root for the kids making the big team.

However, I think a lot of our prospects are overvalued by some on this board… Long term, how amazing are Danault, McNeill, and Ross? So amazing that we absolutely can't move them? So amazing that they could jump into the bottom 6 and by Christmas have locked down a spot in the top 6? Again, we've seen late rounders get a spot on the big boy team IF they can hack it. Andrew Shaw (19th-rounder after getting passed over twice!) comes to mind… You'd think these players would have gotten more of a look by now...

To me, if it takes Bickell + McNeill + Ross to get someone to take Bickells' contract, just (frank)ing do it. Try to get back a second round pick in return for this cohort. I imagine Bowman is waiting until all the arbitration stuff gets done so that all the GMs know what else they need… however, I'm not sure this makes his position anything but weaker the longer he waits.
- DMChi2010

IMO this and your other post are a perfect take on how to treat prospects. Jason Lewis (the Kings blogger) had a series of blogs on prospects and their chances of making it. The disparity was barely noticeable between the "great systems" like the Wings and the rest. Ryan Wilson had a series of blogs too about AHL and NCAA prospects and their chances based on age and PPG.

The bottom line is, unless you're drafting in the top half of the first round, the best approach is to roll thru QUANTITIES of prospects and develop the ones that stand out. Eventually a Saad, Shaw, TVR or TT will emerge and grab a spot. All of the others should be treated simply as chips - particularly the older prospects.

I think Stan may be holding back though because the ask for Bickell may be one of the kids they haven't had a great look at like Schmaltz or Forsling. Could also be a kid like Danault that they believe will take a spot this year. Maybe they believe in McNeil because of the flashes he has shown too?

Regardless, they are moving out prospects while still maintaining a deep system because of the overseas and college prospects they have already PLUS the free agent signings. Based on the numbers in the Lewis blogs it might even make sense to accelerate those rates of turnover.

Johns was the best prospect in the system? I missed that before he was traded.
- vabeachbear

If you take TT out of the mix as he is on the big club, Johns arguably was the best prospect. Others in Rockford, as in forwards aren't thought to be in the top six variety...Johns might may not be a top pairing dman but many think he will be a top 4. ..............And at the time of the trade he was considered the top dman in Rockford.

Funny, I was thinking the same thing. Shaw never seems to draw a misconduct.
- DoubleMinor

Shaw yaps quite a bit...most of the time he is ignored.

- molly2522

In actuality it was never a choice between Hammer and Niemi....
Wilson knew the Hawks would match Hammer but he also knew he could squeeze them.

The Bleacher Report and other blogs etc... about Niemi wanting 4-5 mill to stay were way off base.

Bowman knew how much he would pay Niemi and it wasn't even $ 2 mill. The Hawks could have signed him for the same $2 mill Wilson offered, becasue it was more than 20% below Niemi's arbitration award.

Bowman had the script in his pocket as soon as the Cup was won...
and Marty Turco's contract was in his desk drawer for some time....It was a choice to not bend for Niemi becasue Crawford was the favorite of Stephane Waite and also the front office.

That's the story I heard and wrote at the time before Niemi had an offer sheet, and it played out the same as I heard.

Bowman let the arb process with Niemi play out but as soon as the award was announced he was in essence gone....And Bowman fully expected the award to be higher than he was going to pay.

If you take TT out of the mix as he is on the big club, Johns arguably was the best prospect. Others in Rockford, as in forwards aren't thought to be in the top six variety...Johns might may not be a top pairing dman but many think he will be a top 4. ..............And at the time of the trade he was considered the top dman in Rockford.
- Al

There was a lot of anguish about the Hawks going into the season with Johns even in the 5 or 6 roll.

I'm not a scout, so I can't really say, but I would have put Danault, McNeill, Hartman, Hayden, Schmaltz, Dahlbeck all ahead of him.

I don't read all the hockey prospects stuff, so maybe Johns was listed at the top, just saying, there were a lot of doubts about the guy who couldn't get top special teams minutes as a Senior in college. Now that seems to all have been forgotten.

Shaw yaps quite a bit...most of the time he is ignored.
- Al

Funny! I could see that. Just watch the video on the website of him at the convention, even his team mates seem to kind of half acknowledge all his talking.

There was a lot of anguish about the Hawks going into the season with Johns even in the 5 or 6 roll.

I'm not a scout, so I can't really say, but I would have put Danault, McNeill, Hartman, Hayden, Schmaltz, Dahlbeck all ahead of him.

I don't read all the hockey prospects stuff, so maybe Johns was listed at the top, just saying, there were a lot of doubts about the guy who couldn't get top special teams minutes as a Senior in college. Now that seems to all have been forgotten.
- vabeachbear

Did you read or listen to what Nill said about Johns - namely that Johns was the key piece for Dallas in the Sharp trade. Nill is a very good judge of talent going back to his days with Detroit and said he thought Johns was the best player for Rockford in the playoffs etc. In the few games I saw Johns play, I thought he projected out to be a solid 3-4 defenseman but only time will tell. My guess is he will start in their third pairing this year.

Did you read or listen to what Nill said about Johns - namely that Johns was the key piece for Dallas in the Sharp trade. Nill is a very good judge of talent going back to his days with Detroit and said he thought Johns was the best player for Rockford in the playoffs etc. In the few games I saw Johns play, I thought he projected out to be a solid 3-4 defenseman but only time will tell. My guess is he will start in their third pairing this year.
- FourOrr

I also think the rumored trade at the draft of two seconds and a defensive prospect for Sharp and a Hawks prospect might have been turned down because Nill wanted Johns included. I recall reading that Scotty Bowman was very high on Johns - hence my anguish over the deal.

JJ, while it is not the intention of,nor the goal of the front office to " potentially have an LA Kings type season" this year,is it the worst thing in the world to miss the postseason if it happens to re tool rather than just give away kids with some of these bull sh it trade propositions the armchair army is coming up with. Some of the make sense but some are standing out in left field with a snow shovel especially the crap involving Corey Crawford.
By that I mean, if you trade him, you will get high end young talent back, Stan Bowman is not gonna trade his goalie unless he has cap space to fit the parts coming back. Nor is he trading him for a god dam 35 year old goalie that we had at 1 time unless a plum is going back. He will figure out what to do soon. The way I look at it, we are not trading metal table hockey guys here, Saad deal Iam sure angered Rocky and McCub behind closed doors so they are going to take their time from here on in.
We miss, We miss,so be it, the kids will play, 3Cups in 6 years! I'll take it. I don't want to go into next April minus TT or any other kid because of a rushed decision! New Blog buddy??????

This is a good post and a very real possibility and depending on the deal a good one for the Hawks......... I'd put Crawford as elite, not just good, and mention that when the Hawks lost their last cup winning goalie, Niemi, they had been grooming Crawford in the AHL, a 2nd round pick, for 5 full years. He was a known quantity to the Hawks and they felt confident he could be their #1. I'd also note the vet they brought in for security to be part of the tandem with Crow, Turco, stunk. The Hawks missed on that try.

Point is the Hawks showed they would allow a cup winning goalie to move before, but the context now is different in that they don't have their prospect ready to take over.

As far as Talbot, or even a guy who lit the world on fire but stunk in the playoffs v the offensively challenged Canadiens, Hammond, you are speaking of regular season numbers and a very small sample size. Same with Darling. And Rinne is a good example of a guy who was/is thought to be world class
and he petered out in the playoffs.

Again IMO Crawford is now elite, has shown he can win cups but can be replaced but the return/cap relief has to reflect what his true value is.
- Mr Ricochet

And I will go back to what Mexico posted yesterday: ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL (coaching, team defense, quality of opposition), there is not THAT much difference between MOST goalies in the NHL. A few are amazing athletes, every once in a while, one comes along who is lights out competitive, more and more these days are giants with oversized pads and can simply block most shots.

Most Hawk fans only remember the melting down Cristobal Huet of 2010. But I saw him play a great deal in 2003, 2004, 2005 in Montreal and he looked every bit the part of a solid to very good NHL goaltender—much like Crawford, very good GAA, pretty good save %, steady—because he was very well coached by Rollie Melanson. Point being, most of these guys have ups and downs, and a lot of these guys, if you put them in position to succeed, will.

Crawford has now proven himself to be a money goalie—for the most part. Definitely a quality NHL net minder, and pretty much all scouts agree on that. Elite? I don't know. How quickly people forget the Nashville series where he looked like he was in another building. First reasonable chance Q got, yeah, he put him back in, but Crawford didn't really look right until the Minnesota series. And Darling was damn good for 2+ games in the Nashville series. If he wasn't, we'd probably be talking about Tampa or Anaheim as the Cup Champs—pretty much fact.

Finally, my point is this, there is not THAT great a difference between Crawford and the elite goalies, nor between Crawford and the average goalies. If you got a fair amount of NHL goalies in the Hawk net, coached up by Waite, with Hjalmarsson, Keith, Seabrook, Kruger and Toews in front of them, they'd probably be very, very good.

Just my .02

JJ, while it is not the intention of,nor the goal of the front office to " potentially have an LA Kings type season" this year,is it the worst thing in the world to miss the postseason if it happens to re tool rather than just give away kids with some of these bull sh it trade propositions the armchair army is coming up with. Some of the make sense but some are standing out in left field with a snow shovel especially the crap involving Corey Crawford.
By that I mean, if you trade him, you will get high end young talent back, Stan Bowman is not gonna trade his goalie unless he has cap space to fit the parts coming back. Nor is he trading him for a god dam 35 year old goalie that we had at 1 time unless a plum is going back. He will figure out what to do soon. The way I look at it, we are not trading metal table hockey guys here, Saad deal Iam sure angered Rocky and McCub behind closed doors so they are going to take their time from here on in.
We miss, We miss,so be it, the kids will play, 3Cups in 6 years! I'll take it. I don't want to go into next April minus TT or any other kid because of a rushed decision! New Blog buddy??????
- wonthecup10

Hopefully tonight, a little under the weather

IMO this and your other post are a perfect take on how to treat prospects. Jason Lewis (the Kings blogger) had a series of blogs on prospects and their chances of making it. The disparity was barely noticeable between the "great systems" like the Wings and the rest. Ryan Wilson had a series of blogs too about AHL and NCAA prospects and their chances based on age and PPG.

The bottom line is, unless you're drafting in the top half of the first round, the best approach is to roll thru QUANTITIES of prospects and develop the ones that stand out. Eventually a Saad, Shaw, TVR or TT will emerge and grab a spot. All of the others should be treated simply as chips - particularly the older prospects.

I think Stan may be holding back though because the ask for Bickell may be one of the kids they haven't had a great look at like Schmaltz or Forsling. Could also be a kid like Danault that they believe will take a spot this year. Maybe they believe in McNeil because of the flashes he has shown too?

Regardless, they are moving out prospects while still maintaining a deep system because of the overseas and college prospects they have already PLUS the free agent signings. Based on the numbers in the Lewis blogs it might even make sense to accelerate those rates of turnover.
- tredbrta

Agreed, a lot of these guys they've moved out have not exactly set the world on fire, especially defensemen like Olsen, Stanton, Clendening (well, his jury is still out a bit). But you are ABSOLUTELY right it is a volume and numbers game. Draft and sign as many guys as you can and weed them out, because after all most of those kids are drafted at 17—and their development can go a lot of different ways, even though all the draft geeks are drooling all over them in their draft year. I also think the Hawks have been very lucky (or smart due to scouting) with the free agent signings, maybe the best in the league as far as that goes: Darling, Panarin, Raanta, possibly Gustafsson.

JJ, while it is not the intention of,nor the goal of the front office to " potentially have an LA Kings type season" this year,is it the worst thing in the world to miss the postseason if it happens to re tool rather than just give away kids with some of these bull sh it trade propositions the armchair army is coming up with. Some of the make sense but some are standing out in left field with a snow shovel especially the crap involving Corey Crawford.
By that I mean, if you trade him, you will get high end young talent back, Stan Bowman is not gonna trade his goalie unless he has cap space to fit the parts coming back. Nor is he trading him for a god dam 35 year old goalie that we had at 1 time unless a plum is going back. He will figure out what to do soon. The way I look at it, we are not trading metal table hockey guys here, Saad deal Iam sure angered Rocky and McCub behind closed doors so they are going to take their time from here on in.
We miss, We miss,so be it, the kids will play, 3Cups in 6 years! I'll take it. I don't want to go into next April minus TT or any other kid because of a rushed decision! New Blog buddy??????
- wonthecup10

Yeah I don't see that happening in regards to TT or Dano or anyone they feel will help the club. I believe franchise wise they are trying to do what's best now with an eye on the future. Trading Saad stunk because I thought and as many others did he was going to replace Sharp as a core player, but unfortunately Saad priced himself out of our range. So hopefully we see Dano or TT become our next core piece if both do that would be incredible but not at the same time so we will be able to afford them when their contracts come up

There was a lot of anguish about the Hawks going into the season with Johns even in the 5 or 6 roll.

I'm not a scout, so I can't really say, but I would have put Danault, McNeill, Hartman, Hayden, Schmaltz, Dahlbeck all ahead of him.

I don't read all the hockey prospects stuff, so maybe Johns was listed at the top, just saying, there were a lot of doubts about the guy who couldn't get top special teams minutes as a Senior in college. Now that seems to all have been forgotten.
- vabeachbear

Some of the others on defense who were ahead of johns are gone....From what I hear he is a player with more upside than the forwards. That's not a knock on the forwards but they have been around for awhile and more "upside" opinions have been established.

I think you are missing the point of WIN NOW.

Aside from Teuvo, all the guys project as bottom 6 in the forward group and maybe 3rd pairing for D. The prospects that are worth getting called up do get called up quickly AND STICK -- Hammer (age 21), Saad (20), Shaw (20), Leddy (19), Teuvo (20). All of them saw maybe half a year in Rockford… International talent makes is quickly, too, as Kruger came over from Sweden at age 21. The only "late" bloomers were Kris Versteeg at age 22 and Bryan Bickell at age 24. How are those last two working out?

Now look at the "in the system" roster on nhl.com:
http://blackhawks.nhl.com...htm?srt=age&type=prospect

If you organize it by age by clicking on the age column, you see several players grouped at the top who are already at the age of 22 and on the last year of their ELC deals. Don't you think the Hawks FO and Coach Q can probably evaluate talent pretty well and know that certain players may have reached their threshold and may not have a shot at cracking the uber-talented Hawks roster?? When they get traded at this point, they are not being given away for nothing... Bowman shipped an older Clendening to Vancouver because he had no chance here and got back a 3-year-younger prospect/asset (Forsling, I believe) who may have a higher ceiling than Clendening. Johns was traded with Sharp for CAP SPACE (an asset) plus two NHL players. If McNeill, Ross, etc. go with Bickell for the asset of cap space, then maybe they have a genuine shot at cracking a less-talented NHL roster as a bottom-6 player.

Were the Hawks energized when Ryan Hartman decimated the poor NJ Devil schmuck on Hartman's first shift? Sure… And hopefully, since he is only 20, they keep him in the system for a couple for years.

But the Hawks will always be WAY MORE ENERGIZED by having teammates who are really friggin' good at hockey. Those teammates may not be prospects but rather astute college signings like Kyle Baun, who either makes the team this year or is shipped out at age 23. Or astute international signings like Artemi Panarin (also 23). Panarin will either adjust and be a genuine contributor or will "ship himself out" by going back to Russia.

Again… look carefully at the argument. NHL-ready prospects in the Hawks system MAKE the team. Non-NHL ready prospects get traded to other NHL teams who field NHL teams with AHL players as 4th-liners or 3rd-pairing D-men. And those teams don't even make the playoffs, let alone advance, let alone get to the final, let alone win, let alone win:

3 CUPS IN 6 YEARS, BABY!!
- DMChi2010

Well said sir well said

IMO this and your other post are a perfect take on how to treat prospects. Jason Lewis (the Kings blogger) had a series of blogs on prospects and their chances of making it. The disparity was barely noticeable between the "great systems" like the Wings and the rest. Ryan Wilson had a series of blogs too about AHL and NCAA prospects and their chances based on age and PPG.

The bottom line is, unless you're drafting in the top half of the first round, the best approach is to roll thru QUANTITIES of prospects and develop the ones that stand out. Eventually a Saad, Shaw, TVR or TT will emerge and grab a spot. All of the others should be treated simply as chips - particularly the older prospects.

I think Stan may be holding back though because the ask for Bickell may be one of the kids they haven't had a great look at like Schmaltz or Forsling. Could also be a kid like Danault that they believe will take a spot this year. Maybe they believe in McNeill because of the flashes he has shown too?

Regardless, they are moving out prospects while still maintaining a deep system because of the overseas and college prospects they have already PLUS the free agent signings. Based on the numbers in the Lewis blogs it might even make sense to accelerate those rates of turnover.
- tredbrta

Also when you draft late in rounds the GM is playing the board. The Hawks ranked TT really high, when he slipped they didn't hesitate. Similar with Saad, Mcneil and Danault.

Then it is a matter of hoping others were wrong and you are right.

Hopefully tonight, a little under the weather
- John Jaeckel

Get well , they need ya out there!

This, they all can't be playing in Chicago, after this year, they probably know it and aren't going to resign, so moving them to get cap in order, Kruger and a Vet Dman signed is only logical.
- vabeachbear

I have been saying for awhile watch the list of players going into the last year of an ELC...One has gone- Johns and others have been traded earlier

Wow, well done!
Post of the thread
- Yikes726

True but if you back up a bit the original crew had players who came through Rockford and made a big impact....Bolland-Byfuglien.

Some of this is a function of drafting top picks and having them become great quickly...But Rockford has not been the breeding ground of talent for the Hawks as much as many think.

Bickell and Crawford were the only players to spend a lot of time there.

Also, when you finish on top of the standings a berry will come your way once in awhile in the Draft...Saad-TT...
Otherwise a GM is looking for future NHL players as in 3rd/4th liners who can fill a need.

Outstanding post. Thank you.
- Fergie

Some prospects were held too long and were given away but that is a consequence of having a full boat of younger players on the big club.

There was a lot of anguish about the Hawks going into the season with Johns even in the 5 or 6 roll.

I'm not a scout, so I can't really say, but I would have put Danault, McNeill, Hartman, Hayden, Schmaltz, Dahlbeck all ahead of him.

I don't read all the hockey prospects stuff, so maybe Johns was listed at the top, just saying, there were a lot of doubts about the guy who couldn't get top special teams minutes as a Senior in college. Now that seems to all have been forgotten.
- vabeachbear

I wouldn't bet a penny Johns would have made the team out of camp but that is a different topic.

And I will go back to what Mexico posted yesterday: ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL (coaching, team defense, quality of opposition), there is not THAT much difference between MOST goalies in the NHL. A few are amazing athletes, every once in a while, one comes along who is lights out competitive, more and more these days are giants with oversized pads and can simply block most shots.

Most Hawk fans only remember the melting down Cristobal Huet of 2010. But I saw him play a great deal in 2003, 2004, 2005 in Montreal and he looked every bit the part of a solid to very good NHL goaltender—much like Crawford, very good GAA, pretty good save %, steady—because he was very well coached by Rollie Melanson. Point being, most of these guys have ups and downs, and a lot of these guys, if you put them in position to succeed, will.

Crawford has now proven himself to be a money goalie—for the most part. Definitely a quality NHL net minder, and pretty much all scouts agree on that. Elite? I don't know. How quickly people forget the Nashville series where he looked like he was in another building. First reasonable chance Q got, yeah, he put him back in, but Crawford didn't really look right until the Minnesota series. And Darling was damn good for 2+ games in the Nashville series. If he wasn't, we'd probably be talking about Tampa or Anaheim as the Cup Champs—pretty much fact.

Finally, my point is this, there is not THAT great a difference between Crawford and the elite goalies, nor between Crawford and the average goalies. If you got a fair amount of NHL goalies in the Hawk net, coached up by Waite, with Hjalmarsson, Keith, Seabrook, Kruger and Toews in front of them, they'd probably be very, very good.

Just my .02
- John Jaeckel

The math says at some point if a real fix is needed it points to Crawford going becasue the other big money players won't be touched.

But it is risky and something I think Bowman won't do unless forced.

In my view as I said yesterday in the present tense...Hawks don't win the Cup in 2013 without Crawford....And this time around for most of the time, except late in TB series the Hawks defense wasn't as good as in the other Cup runs.

Hawks gave up a lot of prime scoring chances vs Ana/TB...More than I thought until I saw the amount of shots Crawford saved from those prime scoring areas.

But unless the cap has a $4 or $5 million pop soon something may have to give.
Just don't see Crawford being the bait for someone to swallow Bickell's contract.

Not a fan if Semin but $1.1 mil not much of a risk at all.

Not a fan if Semin but $1.1 mil not much of a risk at all.
- BetweenTheDots

Glad that "not much of a risk" is being taken by someone else.

Glad that "not much of a risk" is being taken by someone else.
- kwolf68

Rundlad or Semin?