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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: My Attempt At Projecting Phil Kessel's 2015-16 Goal Total in Pittsburgh
Author Message
SensnRBs
Ottawa Senators
Location: it ain't cheatin' if ur wife is watching, ON
Joined: 04.03.2014

Sep 2 @ 7:22 AM ET
Kessel has never had an elite centre to play with AND he’s been under the tutelage of Gary Roberts this summer – so he’ll be in the best shape of his career...... he’ll get at least 50 goals and I could see the 50-50 that some have mentioned
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Sep 2 @ 7:58 AM ET
Goal prediction - 36
Assist prediction - 47
Total - 83

Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Sep 2 @ 8:07 AM ET
Goal prediction - 36
Assist prediction - 47
Total - 83

- usethe1-2-2


I could see that
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 2 @ 8:17 AM ET
Im gunna say 50 goals and a +/- of -40
- jmdodgeser4



and wussy of the year award to go with it
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Sep 2 @ 8:24 AM ET
#50in07
GardinerExpress
Location:
Joined: 08.21.2012

Sep 2 @ 8:40 AM ET
He got 37 before with Bozak...last year was just a miserable season.
I have no problem predicting 40

dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Sep 2 @ 9:34 AM ET
He got 37 before with Bozak...last year was just a miserable season.
I have no problem predicting 40

- GardinerExpress

I'm actually more interested in Crosby's goal totals jumping with someone who can actually facilitate offense. Hornqvist Kunitz and Duper are great at what they do but none of them have the ability to dish like Kessel. They might both grab 40
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Sep 2 @ 9:36 AM ET
I could see that
- Streit2ThePoint


Considering the sharp drop in points last season, this would be a welcomed player into the top six.
stowerkraut
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: He fit in the lineup like Edgar Winter in the Wu-Tang Clan, PA
Joined: 01.13.2015

Sep 2 @ 9:42 AM ET


and a years worth of wussy to go with it

- Garnie


Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Sep 2 @ 9:45 AM ET
#50in07
- dbell646

#50&50
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Sep 2 @ 9:50 AM ET
I can see around the 80 point range. It's possible we see a more defensive game from him as well. Some players (see Steve Yzerman)don't buy into playing good D until later in the careers. Johnston had the whole team playing better D last season. Hopefully it rubs off on Phil.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Sep 2 @ 9:54 AM ET
Honestly the better blog would have been how many hat tricks Kessel will pot. I've got the Phil burying 12 hatties and taking the "C" from Crosby by game 36.

Stanley cup prediction:

Penguins: 7

Western Confrence scrub: DNF

jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 2 @ 10:15 AM ET
Silly question, but why would his TOI go up in Pittsburgh? By most accounts, Pittsburgh has a much deeper team that Toronto, and they have one of the best second lines in hockey. In Toronto, it was basically Phil Kessel and then everyone else when it came to point-producing forwards. If that's the case, I would expect that Toronto would feel the need to play him more often than Pittsburgh would.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 2 @ 10:18 AM ET


and wussy of the year award to go with it

- Garnie


Hey, someone has to win the Lady Byng.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Sep 2 @ 10:20 AM ET
Silly question, but why would his TOI go up in Pittsburgh? By most accounts, Pittsburgh has a much deeper team that Toronto, and they have one of the best second lines in hockey. In Toronto, it was basically Phil Kessel and then everyone else when it came to point-producing forwards. If that's the case, I would expect that Toronto would feel the need to play him more often than Pittsburgh would.
- jmatchett383

I feel like it doesn't matter how deep our team is, Crosby and Malkin's lines are still gonna get absurd TOI.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 2 @ 10:23 AM ET
I feel like it doesn't matter how deep our team is, Crosby and Malkin's lines are still gonna get absurd TOI.
- Victoro311


Right...but (without putting forth minimal effort to check), I'd imagine that since Toronto was offensively starved wrt Pittsburgh, Kessel's line would get the bulk of the TOI where Pittsburgh can give the bulk of the TOI to their 2 lines (i.e. Toronto would have to rely on 1 scoring line where as Pittsburgh has 2).
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Sep 2 @ 10:28 AM ET
Right...but (without putting forth minimal effort to check), I'd imagine that since Toronto was offensively starved wrt Pittsburgh, Kessel's line would get the bulk of the TOI where Pittsburgh can give the bulk of the TOI to their 2 lines (i.e. Toronto would have to rely on 1 scoring line where as Pittsburgh has 2).
- jmatchett383

I see what you're saying but I feel like at some point the TOI a line can handle plateaus due to standard human exhaustion regardless of how incompetent your other lines are and I feel like Crosby and Malkin's lines are right there at the plateau. Kessel's TOI may not increase (maybe it will though) but it certainly won't decrease. To answer this question all we need to look at are top TOI for forwards in 2014-2015. Not hard but I don't feel like putting in the effort at work.
thevelvetfog1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.19.2015

Sep 2 @ 10:51 AM ET
I think it was after the first Jets game when the PP starting heading south. The Jets played a rushing pressure D against our PP & we basically poop the bed. After that point other teams followed suit by pressuring the player & hence the new 'passing PP' was born. I think it will take a month or 2 before teams work our PP out again but hopefully this season we have a plan B & plan C!
- Aussiepenguin

This. My favorite PK strategy is to pressure the puck. I think most teams aren't capable of stringing together multiple accurate, quick, hard passes in a pressure situation and then get a goal at the end of it. I know the Pens PK has been pretty good and their strategy is to sag back in a shell, but it drives me nuts!
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Sep 2 @ 10:58 AM ET
This. My favorite PK strategy is to pressure the puck. I think most teams aren't capable of stringing together multiple accurate, quick, hard passes in a pressure situation and then get a goal at the end of it. I know the Pens PK has been pretty good and their strategy is to sag back in a shell, but it drives me nuts!
- thevelvetfog1

1-3-1 time.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Sep 2 @ 11:00 AM ET
Silly question, but why would his TOI go up in Pittsburgh? By most accounts, Pittsburgh has a much deeper team that Toronto, and they have one of the best second lines in hockey. In Toronto, it was basically Phil Kessel and then everyone else when it came to point-producing forwards. If that's the case, I would expect that Toronto would feel the need to play him more often than Pittsburgh would.
- jmatchett383


I don't think he'll play more either. Johnston kept Malkin's and Crosby's TOI below what Bylsma played them.
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Sep 2 @ 11:05 AM ET
I see what you're saying but I feel like at some point the TOI a line can handle plateaus due to standard human exhaustion regardless of how incompetent your other lines are and I feel like Crosby and Malkin's lines are right there at the plateau. Kessel's TOI may not increase (maybe it will though) but it certainly won't decrease. To answer this question all we need to look at are top TOI for forwards in 2014-2015. Not hard but I don't feel like putting in the effort at work.
- Victoro311

I could be wrong becasue I'm not much of a researcher but looks like crosby averaged 18:48 and Kessel averaged 18:45 so I don't see his ice time going up
acdc1206
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Fire Sullivan, PA
Joined: 06.13.2007

Sep 2 @ 11:12 AM ET
I guess every team in the NHL have their 3C filled since Goc signed to play in Germany.
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Sep 2 @ 11:15 AM ET
I guess every team in the NHL have their 3C filled since Goc signed to play in Germany.
- acdc1206


Remember when some on here thought Goc could handle 3C with no problem?
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Sep 2 @ 11:16 AM ET
I don't think he'll play more either. Johnston kept Malkin's and Crosby's TOI below what Bylsma played them.
- jfkst1


Yeah Sid said he was most comfortable playing around 20 minutes per game
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 2 @ 11:18 AM ET
This. My favorite PK strategy is to pressure the puck. I think most teams aren't capable of stringing together multiple accurate, quick, hard passes in a pressure situation and then get a goal at the end of it. I know the Pens PK has been pretty good and their strategy is to sag back in a shell, but it drives me nuts!
- thevelvetfog1


Playing a pressure system is effective if you have top-notch PK forwards and fairly mobile defenseman on the PK. A passive box requires players moving primarily laterally and requires a good understanding of defensive positioning. When you play high pressure, there is much more N-S skating involved with players who must be able to cover ground from a standstill and change direction quickly. In addition, the forwards need to be very adept as defensive hockey as they are pulled further out of their more "stationary" position in the passive box, and must be able to keep themselves accountable.

Both are effective as long as you have the correct personnell.
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