Really? Just sounded to me like another fan just parroting something he heard someone else say because he wanted to sound smart even though he didn't really understand what he was watching.
- jaydogg1974

...sarcasm...

We will give you Weber for Malkin or Crosby. Preferably Malkin, saves ya 2 million in Cap space too!
- jl639s

Draft picks involved must compensate for dramatic drop-off between Scudney and Shea. They're UFA at the same point in time. Actually what's up with trading Ellis for a young forward?

...sarcasm...
- jmatchett383

I know but it gave me the opening to get that off my chest.

Draft picks involved must compensate for dramatic drop-off between Scudney and Shea. They're UFA at the same point in time. Actually what's up with trading Ellis for a young forward?
- Johnny Wrath

I wouldn't trade Ellis only because I don't think he would fetch what he is actually worth. Very underrated, mainly because of size.

Weber + Forsberg + Jones

for

Malkin + Pouliot

Deal
- Pens_Burgh

Hard pass. An overrated defenseman and two young players we probably won't be able to afford long term form Malkin alone is a bad move.

Hard pass. An overrated defenseman and two young players we probably won't be able to afford long term form Malkin alone is a bad move.
- jaydogg1974

I wouldn't trade Ellis only because I don't think he would fetch what he is actually worth. Very underrated, mainly because of size.
- jl639s

He's a really high impact player. Weber, Josi, Jones, Ekholm. Ellis. He's super aggressive and he's costing Nashville 2.5M. I mean, Pittsburgh really doesn't have anything to trade for an asset like that. Nashville would have all of the leverage.

Off topic (a bit), but not off topic for any hockey discussion these days; I'm not either a huge advocate for or against advanced stats. I feel they have their place, but are not an end all. If they were we wouldn't have new, and improved, advanced metrics coming out every year.

That said, if the Malkin line was a negative possession line last night I'd say that high skill set can offset possession (the way analytics measures them) at any time. The 2009 Pens were a perfect example. Of course, the response would be "high skill leads to more shots and hence, better possession.). But we've seen over and over again lower skilled players firing more shots/60 while high end players, many times, will make the more difficult play. For this I point to Tyler Kennedy. Never saw a shoot he didn't like, but would have been better passing on many of them.

My other question is this: do any of the possession stats now track zone time? Their are plenty of good bottom pairing guys that are asked, don't choose to, but are asked to get behind the net and cycle to wear down the other team. That's usually a 4th line requisite. However, that doesn't always lead to shots, but may lead to other lines getting more chances.

Oh well. I'm done.
- cranktheradio

So "advanced stats" regardless of their name are actually pretty simple. All a Corsi event is is a shot attempt. Wither it's off the mark, blocked, hits the post, what have you, if the player is propelling a shot towards the goal its a Corsi attempt. The idea is that since goal scoring involves a lot of chaos and once a shot is on its way anything can happen for it to find the back of the net, the more shot attempts a team has, no matter how bad they are, the bigger the probability that team will score a goal, and by extension, win the game increases.

So from a probability standpoint, a team's ace in the hole is its PDO, which is a metric that combines the team's shooting percentage and SV%. If you're scoring goals at a higher rate, you're probability for scoring on a single shot goes up, and if you're SV% is high, the other team's probability for scoring a goal goes down. Simple stuff.

So now to answer your question: can skill trump advanced stats? Yes it can, if certain perquisites are met. Due to their natural ability, skilled players have the ability to catch fire and go on tears where their shooting percentage is much higher than the league average of 12%. We currently see this with Evgeni Malkin who has a S% of 17.9. No surprise that the Malkin line seems to be on the score sheet every night with that number. The effect of low possession numbers can also be mitigated if you have a goaltender playing very well who significantly lowers the other team's goal scoring probabilities. MAF is playing fantastic right now and is doing a fine job of this. In games we win, MAF is boasting a great .929 SV% which is good for 5th overall in the league.

The issue is that solid possession metrics, or Corsi/Fenwik, is more sustainable than above average PDO. A goalie, especially an elite one like MAF, can hold up his end of the bargain for long stretches and even a whole season, but S% always come back down to earth sooner or later. For example, Evgeni Malkin who is one of the best goal scorers in the league, has a career average S% of 13%. His 17.9 number is just unsustainable. If you want examples of teams that have relied on PDO on success, you need to look no further than last year's Flames and the Toronto Maple Leafs the year they made the playoffs. They came crashing back down to earth the very next season.


TL;DNR: Yes, skill can trump advanced stats due to PDO, but it's not ideal to rely on PDO.

Anyone remember that story about Sid staying after practice and shooting ~500 pucks at a net? It was some kind of ritual to increase his goal scoring, like when a blacksmith would purify himself under a waterfall before forging a wakizashi.

Goalies have camps and developmental summits all summer to figure out how to stop the puck. Skaters do plyometric and olympic weight routines and then arrive at camp to weigh in, learn the system, and run through drills.

What if the skaters practiced finishing at the same rate that goalies practice saving? What if the Penguins developed a number of drills that, instead of taking a token shot on net, really focus on influencing goalies to take positions that they don't want?

Anyone remember that story about Sid staying after practice and shooting ~500 pucks at a net? It was some kind of ritual to increase his goal scoring, like when a blacksmith would purify himself under a waterfall before forging a wakizashi.

Goalies have camps and developmental summits all summer to figure out how to stop the puck. Skaters do plyometric and olympic weight routines and then arrive at camp to weigh in, learn the system, and run through drills.

What if the skaters practiced finishing at the same rate that goalies practice saving? What if the Penguins developed a number of drills that, instead of taking a token shot on net, really focus on influencing goalies to take positions that they don't want?
- Johnny Wrath

This is a really great point. The shot is often an afterthought in a hockey drill, and it starts young.

Taking it even farther, even with the differences in the numbers used I think all have shown that Letang's play on the powerplay from a shooting stand point ranks and compares right up there with the elite powerplay defenseman in the league.

That's not to suggest that he doesn't have issues on the powerplay that needs addressed or that he's playing well on the powerplay, it's more about dispelling this myth that somehow Letang's shooting is an issue or that it's hindering the powerplay overall.
- jaydogg1974

He also has the 4th highest minutes for a defenseman on the PP and gets to play with Sid, Geno, Kessel for most of that time. He's not top 10 in shots/minute or points/minute in spite of that.

- jl639s

you sure you don't want another all star defensemen? we could trade you rob scuderi that is the 7th best defensemen in the league for forsberg and a 1st. deal?

Who are you comparing that to suggesting that he needs more volume? Looking at his total shot attempts(on-goal+missed+blocked) he has attempted 26 shots on the poweplay, comparing that to some of the perceived top powerplay defenseman Burns has attempted 35, Subban 39, Yandle 23, Karlsson 31 and Doughty is at a whooping 23 so he's really not far off. So even looking at total shot attempts he still sits right in the same vicinity as the elite defenseman in the league so expecting much more is really setting an unrealistic expectation. So even looking at total shot volume as a flaw is nothing more than trying to create a problem that doesn't exist as rational for something you want to be true.
- jaydogg1974

Burns has 42, OEL 40, Faulk 40, Subban 39. That's a large jump from 26. Also, these guys are actually a threat to score a goal with their shot. Letang hasn't shown that this season.

This is a really great point. The shot is often an afterthought in a hockey drill, and it starts young.
- hardnosed

I had heard or read that the new composite sticks reduce the feel on the puck and therefore reduce shot accuracy, don't know if that would have anything to do with it.

We do miss a whole lot of chances though.

Why because the fans dislike him and insist on improperly analyzing him game through biased perspectives?
- jaydogg1974

It's biased perspective that Scuderi terrifies me every time he plays the puck? He no longer has sufficient arm strength to blast the puck around the dasher. He can't make a zone exit pass to a forward to save his life, even 5 foot passes end up behind the intended recipient. He rarely holds the line in the offensive zone and when he does he always blasts the puck into the corner. He never shoots the puck on net. He kills a play faster than Caitlyn Jenner kills an erection. He looks like he's skating in quick drying cement. It's not biased perspective it's right in front of anyone's eyes perspective.

Anyone remember that story about Sid staying after practice and shooting ~500 pucks at a net? It was some kind of ritual to increase his goal scoring, like when a blacksmith would purify himself under a waterfall before forging a wakizashi.

Goalies have camps and developmental summits all summer to figure out how to stop the puck. Skaters do plyometric and olympic weight routines and then arrive at camp to weigh in, learn the system, and run through drills.

What if the skaters practiced finishing at the same rate that goalies practice saving? What if the Penguins developed a number of drills that, instead of taking a token shot on net, really focus on influencing goalies to take positions that they don't want?
- Johnny Wrath

Why do you say that like anyone other than you would know anything abiut a blacksmith and a wakawhatevertheF? No one has ever heard of that. Don't blacksmiths make horseshoes? Good lord man this is a hockey board not a dungeons and dragons fans board.

Why do you say that like anyone other than you would know anything abiut a blacksmith and a wakawhatevertheF? No one has ever heard of that. Don't blacksmiths make horseshoes? Good lord man this is a hockey board not a dungeons and dragons fans board.
- Dcoms

I had a medieval studies minor in school and took a class on Samurais in literature. I knew what it was. Just saying.

My absolute favorite part of last night's game was Malkin's wrap around. Took a butt end to the face, camera hows him checking chicklets and then comes off the bench. Proceeds to swoop in down ice and score a wrap around goal!

It was poetic justice and made me jump out of my chair and yell, you tell em' Malkin.

No matter what happens, Malkin's heart must never be questioned. He is THE emotional barometer of this team.

Weber + Forsberg + Jones

for

Malkin + Pouliot

Deal
- Pens_Burgh

Obviously the Pens would take that trade in a heartbeat. And I do believe Nashville would be one of the best trade partners for Pittsburgh. What about a 3 way trade that may or may not be more realistic:

Nashville gets Malkin, Scuderi & CAR 3rd (basically a late 2nd)
Carolina gets Dupuis, Pouliot & NSH 1st
Pittsburgh gets Weber & Jordan Staal

Nashville gets a #1C and their first true superstar (great match for Neal).
Carolina gets a very good D prospect and a 1st. Improve chances at Matthews.
Pittsburgh gets their top pairing D addition and Stall fills the vacant 2C role.

Obviously the Pens would take that trade in a heartbeat. And I do believe Nashville would be one of the best trade partners for Pittsburgh. What about a 3 way trade that may or may not be more realistic:

Nashville gets Malkin, Scuderi & CAR 3rd (basically a late 2nd)
Carolina gets Dupuis, Pouliot & NSH 1st
Pittsburgh gets Weber & Jordan Staal

Nashville gets a #1C and their first true superstar (great match for Neal).
Carolina gets a very good D prospect and a 1st. Improve chances at Matthews.
Pittsburgh gets their top pairing D addition and Stall fills the vacant 2C role.
- MacPatty

Think about it. We are trading Malkin and Pouliot for Jordan Staal and Shea Weber. I honestly don't think that's a good trade for us.

Jordan Staal is the best in the game at what he does but at 6 mil he's over paid and just as injury prone as Malkin and Crosby. Then we're also taking on Weber's behemoth contract that is surely going to turn into one of the worst in the league in about four years.

We're trading away one of the most cost-effective super stars in the salary cap era and a top 3 defensive prospect in the league who could be ready as soon as the tail end of this season and realistically midway through next season to be a cost controlled staple of our blue line for years to come. This isn't proportional.

First of all Ryan Wilson aka the doomer of gloom is forgetting that most of the Sharks attempts were pretty futile ones. They had some good chances and their second goal probably should have counted because they called goaltender interference not the hand pass and it was a hand pass it probably wasn't goaltender interference. Put it this way if Hartnells spear wasn't goaltender interference then thaT definitely wasn't. The Penguins played a very solid game and finally got some puck luck. They should build off of this game. Time for Rutherford to step in and make Johnston make better personel choices. Warsofsky, Clendening, Maatta, Dumoulin, Letang, Cole should be the defense that they are using. The rest is garbage to be thrown out asap. And as far as Dumoulin goes, just like I said in the summer, when he's 28-29-30, somewhere in there he will be our Ryan Suter and he will be the next Penguins captain and the first defenseman to be. I think the guys that played with him in WBS already see him as a leader and he captained his college team to a championship. And this is very high praise for me to be giving an American player but I can see him doing all of it. And Dominic Simon has 18 points in 19 AHL games and is +9 as a rookie I think he deserves and has played his way into a look on the big team.

I had a medieval studies minor in school and took a class on Samurais in literature. I knew what it was. Just saying.
- Victoro311

Well both of you save it for the dungeons and dragons people. Some of us took courses that actually got us jobs in college.

Obviously the Pens would take that trade in a heartbeat. And I do believe Nashville would be one of the best trade partners for Pittsburgh. What about a 3 way trade that may or may not be more realistic:

Nashville gets Malkin, Scuderi & CAR 3rd (basically a late 2nd)
Carolina gets Dupuis, Pouliot & NSH 1st
Pittsburgh gets Weber & Jordan Staal

Nashville gets a #1C and their first true superstar (great match for Neal).
Carolina gets a very good D prospect and a 1st. Improve chances at Matthews.
Pittsburgh gets their top pairing D addition and Stall fills the vacant 2C role.
- MacPatty

Uh that doesn't make us better now or in the future. How many bottom 6 centres do you want on this team? At this point Bonino and Staal are basically the same player.

Well both of you save it for the dungeons and dragons people. Some of us took courses that actually got us jobs in college.
- Dcoms

Sorry it's hard to tell I'm kidding I now realize

Well both of you save it for the dungeons and dragons people. Some of us took courses that actually got us jobs in college.
- Dcoms

Hey man, I have a great job!!!.... Technically it's a year of service, but whatever. Technicalities...