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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: NHL Could Easily Have More Trades -or- How a GM Is Like a Chicken
Author Message
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 7 @ 3:13 PM ET
In a salary cap, a UFA is not free. You're making a trade, whether its with the team the UFA came from or not.

This couldn't be any clearer and very few seem to get it.

- James_Tanner


obviously you're allocating a limited resource in cap dollars to a ufa and the other team gets the benefit of freeing up those cap dollars.

but rarely do you get an opportunity to add a player without giving up assets at stamkos' level.

signing middling free agents to $5M contracts is where gm's have taken the biggest beatings.

chicago signed both hossa and campbell; moves that put them over the top. Moves that don't necessarily provide great value, but did provide a lot of utility.

signing stamkos should provide utility to the leafs, though not good value. The utility he can provide should easily justify the signing.

Mckenzie pegged him at $9M to $11M, so i expect him to be in that range.
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Jan 7 @ 3:14 PM ET
In two years doing this, you are the single most annoying person I have come across. Why do you even bother talking to me when you don't care to learn anything? You aren't open to changing your mind, so think what you want.
- James_Tanner

I learned that gormley was waived and grossman wasn't. do you know why?
because grossman > gormley.

there is nothing in gormleys play to make me change my mind at this current time.
Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Jan 7 @ 3:15 PM ET
Except for the fact that Kadri has been miles better than Stamkos so far this year.
- James_Tanner


Comparing Kadri to Stamkos is the Godwin's Law of hockey analysis.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 7 @ 3:19 PM ET
Except for the fact that Kadri has been miles better than Stamkos so far this year.
- James_Tanner


so i'd take them both

kadri will probably only get brassard type money. there's your good value

with a a few elc deals on the books there will be plenty of good value contracts on the leafs.

that's what allows you to overpay for utility.
Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Jan 7 @ 3:20 PM ET
If RNH is your 3rd line center and Sekera is your #1 defenseman, then your outfit is a textbook case of "misallocation of resources."
nikel
Buffalo Sabres
Location: las vegas, NV
Joined: 01.15.2013

Jan 7 @ 3:37 PM ET
ARE YOU SERIOUSLY AGAINST SIGNING STEVEN (frank)ING STAMKOS IF HE COMES BANGING ON MLSE'S DOORS???

WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE? NOT SIGNING HIM? THINK ABOUT HOW CRAZY THAT IS.

GO GET YOUR PAIR OUT OF YOUR WIFE'S PURSE BEFORE RESPONDING TANNER

- Tumbleweed



Here's a question, would landing Stamkos be enough to cut the rebuild short?

To me, Leafs are about 2-3 seasons away from really needing the services of a Stamkos type player. And actually he will put you in a situation where you were for the past 5 years where you're too good to land top picks (and finally finish a rebuild) but not good enough to be a consistent playoff threat.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 7 @ 3:44 PM ET
Here's a question, would landing Stamkos be enough to cut the rebuild short?

To me, Leafs are about 2-3 seasons away from really needing the services of a Stamkos type player. And actually he will put you in a situation where you were for the past 5 years where you're too good to land top picks (and finally finish a rebuild) but not good enough to be a consistent playoff threat.

- nikel


JVR - 2nd overall
Kadri - 7th overall
Rielly - 5th overall
Nylander - 8th overall
Marner - 4th overall
2016 - ? (top 10?)

leafs have top picks in the system/on the roster. if these guys don't work out, they have bigger problems.

at some point they need to prove they can do what teams like Florida, St Louis, Detroit and Chicago do - find guys later in the 1st round (or beyond).

Tallon added campbell in chicago and lu and campbell (again) early in florida to help stabilize the team.

so no, i don't think it's too early.
Allan Bester
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 02.09.2010

Jan 7 @ 3:45 PM ET
Here's a question, would landing Stamkos be enough to cut the rebuild short?

To me, Leafs are about 2-3 seasons away from really needing the services of a Stamkos type player. And actually he will put you in a situation where you were for the past 5 years where you're too good to land top picks (and finally finish a rebuild) but not good enough to be a consistent playoff threat.

- nikel


The Leafs rebuild is not going to be like an Oiler rebuild. It is a rebuild. Not a disgraceful tanking. It'd be much easier to get elite level talent by tanking for a few seasons - trading off all valuable assets for sub-par returns just to try and lose but the Leafs aren't doing this.

They want to build a sustainable system of talented NHLers, AHLers, and prospects.

The main part of this will be to not trade away picks or youth for vets - and also acquiring picks and youth for vets. If they sign Stamkos, they can still continue to stockpile picks and prospects and build a young team. Sure they won't win the 1st overall pick -but that's not happening anyways unless we luck out on the lottery. Leafs are way too good for that.
Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Jan 7 @ 3:49 PM ET
Here's a question, would landing Stamkos be enough to cut the rebuild short?

To me, Leafs are about 2-3 seasons away from really needing the services of a Stamkos type player. And actually he will put you in a situation where you were for the past 5 years where you're too good to land top picks (and finally finish a rebuild) but not good enough to be a consistent playoff threat.

- nikel


If you added Stamkos to their current lineup without taking anything away, they'd probably be in a playoff spot right now, so I'd say it would at least speed up the process.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:02 PM ET
I like J Staal. But here's a comfortable list of centers better all around than him in the Metro alone:
Crosby, Malkin, Brassard, Stepan, Tavares, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Giroux. Kinda hard to be a great all around player when he is so limited offensively.

- jfkst1


Come on, Brassard and Stepan? Kuznetsov?


That is whack. Malkin and Crosby are on another level. The other three all are superior offensively, but Staal has that two hundred foot game. Relative to his contract, he's at least better value than CG, NB or JT (at least once he gets a new deal. He also is crap this year).
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:03 PM ET
40 games, what a great sample.
- Garnie


Its not a good sample at all. I would obviously choose Stamkos over Kadri if I had to predict who would be better for the next five years. However, when you can buy two Stamkos for the price of one Kadri, I think that one is a good value signing and the other is not.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:05 PM ET
As long as you're paying McDavid and Draisaitl on ELC's it's all good sure, but when they wanna get paid it makes no sense to be paying your third line center 6 million per. I guess I'm looking ahead and I'm considering the fact Oilers fans and best players for that matter have suffered for a looooooooooong time.

Trading RNH speeds up the process, or it potentially could.

- LeftCoaster



Conventionally you are right and I bet a lot of people would agree with you.

But, maybe it makes sense to have four six million dollar centres and get all your wingers on the cheap. There are many various out of the box ideas that should be explored in team building but, again, the NHL is full of chickens.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jan 7 @ 4:10 PM ET
Come on, Brassard and Stepan? Kuznetsov?


That is whack. Malkin and Crosby are on another level. The other three all are superior offensively, but Staal has that two hundred foot game. Relative to his contract, he's at least better value than CG, NB or JT (at least once he gets a new deal. He also is crap this year).

- James_Tanner


The only thing that is "whack" is claiming a player is one of the best all around centers when he produces offensively at a bottom 6 rate. J Staal is a great 3C and a capable 2C. How can you ignore his lack of tangible offensive production and claim he is elite? The PURPOSE of hockey analytics is to find methods to compose a winning team. Not find the best shot attempt team. And while there is overlap between the two concepts, they aren't entirely congruent either as you seem to believe.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:16 PM ET
so i'd take them both

kadri will probably only get brassard type money. there's your good value

with a a few elc deals on the books there will be plenty of good value contracts on the leafs.

that's what allows you to overpay for utility.

- Tumbleweed


The Leafs have, potentially:

Kadri, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Leipsic, Johnson, Tikanov, Kappanen, Bracco, Leivo, Guathier and maybe Nylanders brother or someone better.

- Everything they can get from trading JVR, Komarov, Bozak ,Paranteau, Boyes, Grabner, Lupul, Polak, Phaneuf, Hunwick,

- Gardiner, Rielly, Percy, Harrington, Marancin, Dermott, Corrado, Loov, Neilson

-A second fist rounder and third rounder this year.

So, my point is, for a team that hasn't been rebuilding for very long, this is a decent to great set of prospects. What exactly would the point of signing Stamkos be when you're in no position to compete, even with him, for the first two years of his deal? Even if he could return value on those two years, which is virtually impossible, he sure wouldn't when he was approaching 30.

In the end, trying to take a short cut and signing a name-brand player who the stats say isn't what he used to be, on a deal that you almost certainly have actual proof that you shouldn't sign it, is like the exact essense of why the Leafs have sucked for years and years. This is the EXACT move the Leafs always make. So, considering the new management, the rebuild et al. I cannot fathom why Leafs fans not only want more of the same, but think anyone who doesn't is an illinformed idiot.

It's a nice dream, but it is never, ever going to happen, nor should it.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 7 @ 4:17 PM ET
Its not a good sample at all. I would obviously choose Stamkos over Kadri if I had to predict who would be better for the next five years. However, when you can buy two Stamkos for the price of one Kadri, I think that one is a good value signing and the other is not.
- James_Tanner


the way i see it, you'll never bring along a well-rounded group of good value players internally.

at some point you'll have to add externally to fill holes; and likely overpay for it in assets or cap dollars.

the teams that will get run over by terrible contracts will be the teams signing ladd and buff to their asking prices/full term.

overpaying stamkos shouldn't destroy the leafs cap situation. having minimal trade restrictions in the last 2 years of the deal should also give the leafs some potential outs.

to me, the leafs don't have the assets to overpay in assets for a good value player through trade.

They do have excess cap dollars to overpay for a top line free agent.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:17 PM ET
If RNH is your 3rd line center and Sekera is your #1 defenseman, then your outfit is a textbook case of "misallocation of resources."
- Snowblind


Well they have Klefbom, Nurse and a #1 pick they can move, so I doubt that is something that would really happen.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:18 PM ET
JVR - 2nd overall
Kadri - 7th overall
Rielly - 5th overall
Nylander - 8th overall
Marner - 4th overall
2016 - ? (top 10?)

leafs have top picks in the system/on the roster. if these guys don't work out, they have bigger problems.

at some point they need to prove they can do what teams like Florida, St Louis, Detroit and Chicago do - find guys later in the 1st round (or beyond).

Tallon added campbell in chicago and lu and campbell (again) early in florida to help stabilize the team.

so no, i don't think it's too early.

- Tumbleweed


But Florida sucks (outside their first line and D pairing).
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Jan 7 @ 4:18 PM ET
Well they have Klefbom, Nurse and a #1 pick they can move, so I doubt that is something that would really happen.
- James_Tanner

will the yotes claim gormley do you think?
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jan 7 @ 4:22 PM ET
The Leafs have, potentially:

Kadri, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Leipsic, Johnson, Tikanov, Kappanen, Bracco, Leivo, Guathier and maybe Nylanders brother or someone better.

- Everything they can get from trading JVR, Komarov, Bozak ,Paranteau, Boyes, Grabner, Lupul, Polak, Phaneuf, Hunwick,

- Gardiner, Rielly, Percy, Harrington, Marancin, Dermott, Corrado, Loov, Neilson

-A second fist rounder and third rounder this year.

So, my point is, for a team that hasn't been rebuilding for very long, this is a decent to great set of prospects. What exactly would the point of signing Stamkos be when you're in no position to compete, even with him, for the first two years of his deal? Even if he could return value on those two years, which is virtually impossible, he sure wouldn't when he was approaching 30.

In the end, trying to take a short cut and signing a name-brand player who the stats say isn't what he used to be, on a deal that you almost certainly have actual proof that you shouldn't sign it, is like the exact essense of why the Leafs have sucked for years and years. This is the EXACT move the Leafs always make. So, considering the new management, the rebuild et al. I cannot fathom why Leafs fans not only want more of the same, but think anyone who doesn't is an illinformed idiot.

It's a nice dream, but it is never, ever going to happen, nor should it.

- James_Tanner


the leafs have never in their history acquired a player like stamkos without giving up assets. this isn't the old ways of mortgaging the future.

based on play this year, the leafs are lot closer to competing for a playoff spot than 2 years.

edit: i initially read that as you calling me an idiot. I don't think your illinformed . I thought this was reasonably civil discussion, for the internet anyways.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 7 @ 4:26 PM ET
Its not a good sample at all. I would obviously choose Stamkos over Kadri if I had to predict who would be better for the next five years. However, when you can buy two Stamkos for the price of one Kadri, I think that one is a good value signing and the other is not.
- James_Tanner



2 Kadri's for 1 Stamkos, yes....I'm a little leery myself of signing Stammer...but you have to a least think about it.

Kadri wants a raise also, Kadri will want $6 or $7m

Kadri 10/6/1990 25+ 173points 645 shots

Stamkos 2/7/1990 25+ 528points 1715 shots

3x the output.

It would be different if Stammer was 30 or something.


Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Jan 7 @ 4:32 PM ET
Come on, Brassard and Stepan? Kuznetsov?


That is whack. Malkin and Crosby are on another level. The other three all are superior offensively, but Staal has that two hundred foot game. Relative to his contract, he's at least better value than CG, NB or JT (at least once he gets a new deal. He also is crap this year).

- James_Tanner


Jordan Staal has one of the worst contracts in the NHL.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 7 @ 4:33 PM ET
The Leafs have, potentially:

Kadri, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Leipsic, Johnson, Tikanov, Kappanen, Bracco, Leivo, Guathier and maybe Nylanders brother or someone better.

- Everything they can get from trading JVR, Komarov, Bozak ,Paranteau, Boyes, Grabner, Lupul, Polak, Phaneuf, Hunwick,

- Gardiner, Rielly, Percy, Harrington, Marancin, Dermott, Corrado, Loov, Neilson

-A second fist rounder and third rounder this year.

So, my point is, for a team that hasn't been rebuilding for very long, this is a decent to great set of prospects. What exactly would the point of signing Stamkos be when you're in no position to compete, even with him, for the first two years of his deal? Even if he could return value on those two years, which is virtually impossible, he sure wouldn't when he was approaching 30.

In the end, trying to take a short cut and signing a name-brand player who the stats say isn't what he used to be, on a deal that you almost certainly have actual proof that you shouldn't sign it, is like the exact essense of why the Leafs have sucked for years and years. This is the EXACT move the Leafs always make. So, considering the new management, the rebuild et al. I cannot fathom why Leafs fans not only want more of the same, but think anyone who doesn't is an illinformed idiot.

It's a nice dream, but it is never, ever going to happen, nor should it.

- James_Tanner


Except the old Leafs would be giving Doan the new contract and not a 25 yr old proven 1c

Plus I don't think are trading some of the players you think they are..ie. Komarov/JVR

They will rebuild on the fly IMO, trying to make the playoffs and being wise with their assets and better scouting and drafting.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jan 7 @ 4:41 PM ET
Except the old Leafs would be giving Doan the new contract and not a 25 yr old proven 1c

Plus I don't think are trading some of the players you think they are..ie. Komarov/JVR

They will rebuild on the fly IMO, trying to make the playoffs and being wise with their assets and better scouting and drafting.

- Garnie



i would bet two million dollars that JVR and Komarov are both dealt.
geta02it
Calgary Flames
Location: AB
Joined: 11.10.2007

Jan 7 @ 4:52 PM ET
2 Kadri's for 1 Stamkos, yes....I'm a little leery myself of signing Stammer...but you have to a least think about it.

Kadri wants a raise also, Kadri will want $6 or $7m

Kadri 10/6/1990 25+ 173points 645 shots

Stamkos 2/7/1990 25+ 528points 1715 shots

3x the output.

It would be different if Stammer was 30 or something.

- Garnie



WOW. Is Kadri on the same level as Hall, Eberle, RNH, Seguin? not a troll, just a question...
Allan Bester
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 02.09.2010

Jan 7 @ 4:56 PM ET
i would bet two million dollars that JVR and Komarov are both dealt.
- James_Tanner

traded by when? 1 year, 2 years, 3 years? I want to take that bet because JVRs trade value should be astronomical and hes young enough to be part of a tml contender. Proven 1st line wingers dont grow on trees, I think the Leafs will kep him.
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