good young talented core, some key vetrans to fill in holes. seems like an improving team well positioned to get better.

tallon laying the groundwork like he did in chicago.
- Tumbleweed

I think they are a lot closer to being this years version of Calgary. Or the year before's version of the Avalanche. Those teams have good young cores too.

leafs will have a ton of capspace over the next couple seasons. they can easily afford Stamkos without giving up any of their valuable assets such as bozak or jvr.
- Allan Bester

They cannot. When they decide they are ready to compete, they have to max out the cap, and the way to win is to do that smartly. Locking up a declining player to the biggest contract in league history is not smart.

No matter how your dollars are allocated, paying one guy takes money out of anothers pocket.

To date I have not seen one argument for getting Stamkos that made sense and acknowledged that signing that contract will take money away from a future core that isn't even existing yet.

I'd guess $5.5M over 5 years, using brassard as the comparable.

but yeah, who knows. My guesses are usually $0.5 to $1M low and short 1-2 years.
- Tumbleweed

There is no reason for them not to sign Kadri to a seven years extension the second he is eligible. If you give him full term, you can probably sign him for a reasonable five million. If you start trying to go short term, he'll want way more.

He's the best player they've developed in thirty years, so they sure as hell will be signing him.

he's become defensively responsible under babcock so probably exceeds expectations there

He hasn't lit up the score sheet, but with a little better luck he could be a 50 point player.

I think he's worth that type of money. A good 2nd line C.
- Tumbleweed

Since his shooting percentage normalized to his career norms, he's scored at a 82 point pace while putting ES numbers that put him on pace to score the same amount as Crosby and Ovechkin did last year.

Considering that during that 2% streak he was actually playing amazing, I think that the worst you can say about Kadri is that he's the best of the guys just outside the "Tavares, Stamkos, Crosby, Girioux" elite zone. Though, arguably he has outplayed all four of them this year.

he's lefthanded

I predict that both will be moved at the deadline or before.
- James_Tanner

doubtful on jvr, but if he does get moved the return should be pretty exciting. Itd be a pretty big trade.

If RNH is your 3rd line center and Sekera is your #1 defenseman, then your outfit is a textbook case of "misallocation of resources."
- Snowblind

You are probably correct if the salary cap decreases (which as history indicates it has only done after a new CBA is negotiated and that is a long long ways off, and salaries are often rolled back anyway which would offset that possibility anyway) but if it does RNH at 6 million as a 1/2 or #3 Centre and Sekera as a solid #2 (Nurse will be our #1 D in a year or two) doesn’t seem like much of an over pay. As of now RNH is our #1 or #1A centre and Sekera is a $5,500,000 dollar defecto #1 D man. Hardly a “misallocation of resources” as you believe. What should the Oilers have done in unrestricted free agency to address their need for a competent defence man in your mind?

If RNH is your 3rd line center and Sekera is your #1 defenseman, then your outfit is a textbook case of "misallocation of resources."
- Snowblind

When has RNH EVER been the Oilers third line centre? Just curious. When 97 gets back he may be our #3 Centre or maybe our #2 or #1. Depends on what line is scoring i would imagine. Pretty sure the Oilers will have 3 scoring lines not 1 that is loaded up with all their talent because there is to much of that to be contained in one line.

It really doesn't matter if any teams have done it before - Staal on PGH in 09 comes to mind - its a solid strategy. So you traditionally want a grinder on the third line? Why? What grinder will out perform RNH, especially when getting probably the easiest matchups vs skill rating in the whole league?

It wouldn't be too hard to then make getting a defensive specialist type of dude for your fourth line, but as we now know without a doubt, offensive players tend to have bigger defensive impacts than defensive specialists.

RNH at 3C isn't a waste, it's an exploitation.
- James_Tanner

It all comes down to money. Can they afford to keep all 3 long term to when they'll be ready to be competitive, not just in their terrible division? I think in the abstract you're right, but I don't think they can afford to pay 3 guys that much coin, 4 if you count Hall who isn't going anywhere, and still pay for needs at other positions.

You are probably correct if the salary cap decreases (which as history indicates it has only done after a new CBA is negotiated and that is a long long ways off, and salaries are often rolled back anyway which would offset that possibility anyway) but if it does RNH at 6 million as a 1/2 or #3 Centre and Sekera as a solid #2 (Nurse will be our #1 D in a year or two) doesn’t seem like much of an over pay. As of now RNH is our #1 or #1A centre and Sekera is a $5,500,000 dollar defecto #1 D man. Hardly a “misallocation of resources” as you believe. What should the Oilers have done in unrestricted free agency to address their need for a competent defence man in your mind?
- al3535

Misallocation of talent, not cap space.

Misallocation of talent, not cap space.
- Snowblind

Wont disagree with that. I would HOPE at the deadline that is addressed or the day of the draft. I would think if Snow honours Harmonics trade request maybe the Oilers and Isles hook up for a trade beneficial to both. Right now Snow’s demands of a D for D trade aren’t happening but that may change whether it be injuries or granting Harmonics request. The Boychuck injury is obviously not forcing Snow’s hand at all right now that is for sure. The Isles are definitely at a place of strength now for sure.

Since his shooting percentage normalized to his career norms, he's scored at a 82 point pace while putting ES numbers that put him on pace to score the same amount as Crosby and Ovechkin did last year.

Considering that during that 2% streak he was actually playing amazing, I think that the worst you can say about Kadri is that he's the best of the guys just outside the "Tavares, Stamkos, Crosby, Girioux" elite zone. Though, arguably he has outplayed all four of them this year.
- James_Tanner

The best you can say using your usual analysis is that he's equal to bozak. They have very similar corsi, Bozak has more 5v5 points (in less minutes), and isn't carried by Komarov and JVR who both have better corsi when playing with bozak than Kadri. If you are going to live and die by corsi you can't just choose when it applies.

I like kadri as a player FWIW.

RNH would be my third line center on that Oilers team, to me he doesn't fit "my" definition of what I want from a third line center.

Considering the minutes McDavid and Draisaitl would, or should, be getting as the top centres down the middle IMO you'd be wasting RNH's talent in that position. Trade him for defensive help and strengthen that position.

Most great teams had a really good 1/2 combo's at center, Yzerman/Fedorov, Gretzky/Messier, Lemieux/Francis, Sakic/Forsberg, Crosby/Malkin, Kopitar/Carter etc. etc. (just to name a few)

Do you know who the third line center is on those teams without looking it up?
- LeftCoaster

Larinov, Mactavish, Drury, Staal, Stoll. Can't remember Lemieux/Francis though. Those were all cup year third line centers too. However, I do agree that in the Oilers case, RNH is not the type of center I would want playing third line minutes. Better served finding a spot for him elsewhere and
getting a top 3 defender in return.

This thread had Tanner writing about RNH being the Oilers' 3rd line center now and for the future. No one was talking about the Oilers pre-McD. So touchy.

Also the point remains that if you are 3 deep with McD-Draisaitl-RNH but have Sekera as your #1 defenseman then that is a misallocation of resources. If you think the Oilers are better off with the Nuge as a 3rd line center then as an asset to trade for help on the blue line then, good luck with that!
- Snowblind

yes, that's exactly what I said.
Another solid post


And no, it's not a misallocation of resources. You're trying to simplify it so it fits the narrative you're trying to sell. They didn't decide to neglect signing defenders so they could concentrate on using resources to make nuge a 3c.

The best you can say using your usual analysis is that he's equal to bozak. They have very similar corsi, Bozak has more 5v5 points (in less minutes), and isn't carried by Komarov and JVR who both have better corsi when playing with bozak than Kadri. If you are going to live and die by corsi you can't just choose when it applies.

I like kadri as a player FWIW.
- rmdevil313

No, a full spectrum stats analysis has Kadri absolutely crushing Bozak this year.

Bozak has one or two more ES points, but Kadri spent 20 games shooting under 2% and Bozak is shooting 15%, three times what Kadri is shooting.

Also, Kadri has linemates shooting several points lower than Bozaks's.

No one can dispute that s% is 100% LUCK.

Kadri plays better D, he allows less shot attempts, shots, and scoring chances while he is on the ice. He also produces more of all those things and his differentials kill Bozaks.

Kadri is one of the leaders of the NHL in shots and shot attempts.

Kadri plays less with Gardiner as Babcock attempts to use Gardiner to prop up his duds.

Also Kadri a better possession player, and even the 1.5 higher Corsi he currently has over Bozak is significant.

yes, that's exactly what I said.
Another solid post


And no, it's not a misallocation of resources. You're trying to simplify it so it fits the narrative you're trying to sell. They didn't decide to neglect signing defenders so they could concentrate on using resources to make nuge a 3c.
- HB77

Having 3 #1 centres is probably the best thing a team could do. How do you defend against that? Plus, they'd be able to exploit matchups even on the road.

It makes way more sense to trade a winger or their draft picks for what they need. Plus, having three plus centres will lead to McDavid getting a ton of extra exploitable matchups, which will be huge.

Having 3 #1 centres is probably the best thing a team could do. How do you defend against that? Plus, they'd be able to exploit matchups even on the road.

It makes way more sense to trade a winger or their draft picks for what they need. Plus, having three plus centres will lead to McDavid getting a ton of extra exploitable matchups, which will be huge.
- James_Tanner

This is Certainly the best case scenario. And exactly what we're hoping will happen. We'll see how it goes



I do think that in the offseason, depending on desperation for a defender/how a healthy roster looks, we might see nuge going instead of eberle. due to return and that we might be pretty thin on the right side (yaks is an absolute question mark outside of those ten games he rode shotgun with Connor. If they can recapture that-obviously changes abit of what I've said about the right side.)

There is no reason for them not to sign Kadri to a seven years extension the second he is eligible. If you give him full term, you can probably sign him for a reasonable five million. If you start trying to go short term, he'll want way more.

He's the best player they've developed in thirty years, so they sure as hell will be signing him.
- James_Tanner

I wouldn't be opposed to that.

Maybe some incentive for kadri to only sign a 5 year deal; but security is nice too.

I think they are a lot closer to being this years version of Calgary. Or the year before's version of the Avalanche. Those teams have good young cores too.
- James_Tanner

Maybe. they have a ways to go before being Stanley Cup contenders.

They are definitely relying on good goaltending; a lot of teams do.

I still like the team composition and trend they are on.

They cannot. When they decide they are ready to compete, they have to max out the cap, and the way to win is to do that smartly. Locking up a declining player to the biggest contract in league history is not smart.

No matter how your dollars are allocated, paying one guy takes money out of anothers pocket.

To date I have not seen one argument for getting Stamkos that made sense and acknowledged that signing that contract will take money away from a future core that isn't even existing yet.
- James_Tanner

The majority of the current leaf roster will be gone in 5 years.

A core of Rielly, Gardiner, marner, Nylander, kadri, stamkos and a goalie seems manageable to me in 5 years time; especially if the Canadian dollar goes up..

You manage the rest through short term contracts. Guys who demand big money outside of the core get traded for futures. Chicago model.

Maybe an over simplification, but a lot of unknowns between now and then.

His contract will likely be eclipsed multiple times 5 years after signing it - and could very well come in under kane/toews.

No, a full spectrum stats analysis has Kadri absolutely crushing Bozak this year.

Bozak has one or two more ES points, but Kadri spent 20 games shooting under 2% and Bozak is shooting 15%, three times what Kadri is shooting.

Also, Kadri has linemates shooting several points lower than Bozaks's.

No one can dispute that s% is 100% LUCK.

Kadri plays better D, he allows less shot attempts, shots, and scoring chances while he is on the ice. He also produces more of all those things and his differentials kill Bozaks.

Kadri is one of the leaders of the NHL in shots and shot attempts.

Kadri plays less with Gardiner as Babcock attempts to use Gardiner to prop up his duds.

Also Kadri a better possession player, and even the 1.5 higher Corsi he currently has over Bozak is significant.
- James_Tanner

As much as i dislike bozak, he is shooting at his career shooting %. He is some weird anamoly.

No, a full spectrum stats analysis has Kadri absolutely crushing Bozak this year.

Bozak has one or two more ES points, but Kadri spent 20 games shooting under 2% and Bozak is shooting 15%, three times what Kadri is shooting.

Also, Kadri has linemates shooting several points lower than Bozaks's.

No one can dispute that s% is 100% LUCK.

Kadri plays better D, he allows less shot attempts, shots, and scoring chances while he is on the ice. He also produces more of all those things and his differentials kill Bozaks.

Kadri is one of the leaders of the NHL in shots and shot attempts.

Kadri plays less with Gardiner as Babcock attempts to use Gardiner to prop up his duds.

Also Kadri a better possession player, and even the 1.5 higher Corsi he currently has over Bozak is significant.
- James_Tanner

Depending on the site you use, the difference in corsi is 1.1 to .7. (I realize now you were probably using differential per 60 where I was using CF% but point still stands.) As I already mentioned and you failed to addressed, according to the stats Kadri is benefitting greatly from his linemates so no, I don't see that as a huge difference. And Kadri has played all of 10 less minutes with Gardiner, so that's a bs excuse.


"Kadri plays better D," Eye test?
"he allows less shot attempts, shots, and scoring chances while he is on the ice." Haven't seen the numbers for scoring chances, but Bozak allows less shots against.
"He also produces more of all those things" Does that really matter when his linemates do better away from him and more specifically with Bozak?
"Kadri is one of the leaders of the NHL in shots and shot attempts. " Corsi>shots

Since his shooting percentage normalized to his career norms, he's scored at a 82 point pace while putting ES numbers that put him on pace to score the same amount as Crosby and Ovechkin did last year.

Considering that during that 2% streak he was actually playing amazing, I think that the worst you can say about Kadri is that he's the best of the guys just outside the "Tavares, Stamkos, Crosby, Girioux" elite zone. Though, arguably he has outplayed all four of them this year.
- James_Tanner

I will admit to not reading every post(i did skim over though).
I guess i can understand not wanting to throw ridiculous money at Stamkos, Whom in my opinion is somewhat over rated but still elite, But to use his age as an argument for not signing him? I get that he would be in his early thirties, But he should be still in elite status at that time, Depending on the supporting cast around him. Because almost all the elite players have excellent players(often under rated) helping them to be "elite".
But you want the Leafs to sign Kadri long term? Stamkos and Kadri are the same age? How then can age be a reason for not signing one. But not the other?

But Florida sucks (outside their first line and D pairing).
- James_Tanner

Barkov-20
Bjugstad-23
Howden-23
Huberdeau-22
Pirri-24
Smith-24
Trocheck-22
Ekblad-19
Gudbranson-24
Kulikov-24
All Young decent players(a few elite)
Then a smattering of veterans
Bolland
Jagr
Jokinen
Mitchell
Loungo as goalie
James, I think you should take another look at Florida
5th in points
goals against- 2nd
goals for- 11th
if they ever get their pp% out of the crapper they will be deadly And they are a serious threat already. This team could/should only get better considering their age.