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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Under the radar--fomer Minnesota State defenseman Casey Nelson
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mhp
Buffalo Sabres
Location: PROUD MEMBER OF RED SOX NATION SINCE 1975!!!! , SD
Joined: 01.14.2008

Mar 27 @ 11:04 AM ET
That could happen sooner than we might think...

Kane-O'Reilly-Reinhart
Eichel-Stamkos-Fasching
Ennis-Girgensons-Bailey
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
Deslauriers

That could happen at some point next year
More likely the following year though, with Schaller likely replacing Gionta

- jdfitz77


I think you're pretty accurate on the top 6 but it's really hard to say if Ennis and Girgs will be here next year. Of the two, I think Girgensons stays and you could see Foligno up on the 3rd line.
mhp
Buffalo Sabres
Location: PROUD MEMBER OF RED SOX NATION SINCE 1975!!!! , SD
Joined: 01.14.2008

Mar 27 @ 11:06 AM ET
.500 would be a huge step for this team moving forward, and I think that will be the mindset for the players


and Stamkos will be a sabre if he becomes a UFA

- homiedclown


I really think they could finish .500 for sure, lots to build on for next season. If Stamkos is in our top 6 and we can get a 1/2 dman, we will have marked improvement next season. Goaltending will be the big question mark imo.
fastek
Buffalo Sabres
Location: CA
Joined: 02.19.2016

Mar 27 @ 11:21 AM ET
Really? I think Eichel is the last guy to worry about.

O'Reilly is about to be making 7.5 mil. I think 20 goals and 55-60 points should be expected.

- sbroads24


Exactly why signing Stamkos (or any player) to a $10-$11 million deal in Buffalo would be a disaster. The guy doesn't put up a point a game and he gets crucified.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Mar 27 @ 11:30 AM ET
I could see Murray throwing a mid-rounder at Tampa for Stamkos' rights, assuming he would waive the NTC to facilitate the discussions. If he isn't willing to accept the gobs of money we offer him during that period, then you just let it go and move onto your fallback options.

If Stamkos wouldn't waive the NTC to negotiate, then he's probably not realistically considering buffalo as a target anyway. What would he have to lose at that point?

- Deuce81




Good points
As long as Tampa will take a 3rd for his rights
I don't wanna give up out 2nd
We can add in a mid level prospect, like Carrier or Karabacek if they want
Something like that anyways
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Mar 27 @ 11:35 AM ET
I think you're pretty accurate on the top 6 but it's really hard to say if Ennis and Girgs will be here next year. Of the two, I think Girgensons stays and you could see Foligno up on the 3rd line.
- mhp



True
But the biggest reason I see both of those guys back, is that we won't get much value back for them

Ppl on here think we can trade Ennis or Girgs for this defenseman we need
I think it's gonna have to be Fasching or Bailey
Here's why...

1) Cheaper- on ELC deals. Teams are finally becoming a bit screwed by the Cap & need to get cheaper talent when they can.

2) All u see is upside- no concussion, no scoring drop off, etc

3) Age- not just that they're younger, but more importantly, they won't have to be protected in an expansion draft. That is definitely gonna play a role in trades made this offseason. I guarantee it
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:35 AM ET
.500 would be a huge step for this team moving forward, and I think that will be the mindset for the players


and Stamkos will be a sabre if he becomes a UFA

- homiedclown



Enjoy that sens avatar
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Mar 27 @ 11:39 AM ET
Exactly why signing Stamkos (or any player) to a $10-$11 million deal in Buffalo would be a disaster. The guy doesn't put up a point a game and he gets crucified.
- fastek



On here maybe...
In the newspaper, probably...

But do any of the players really care?

If Stamkos only scores 20 something goals next year, he'll be pissed off at his lack of production. The extra chatter might be annoying, but not a determine factor.

He's gonna have that pressure on him no matter where he plays
Tampa, Buffalo, Toronto, etc...
doesnt matter where he goes

mhp
Buffalo Sabres
Location: PROUD MEMBER OF RED SOX NATION SINCE 1975!!!! , SD
Joined: 01.14.2008

Mar 27 @ 11:48 AM ET
True
But the biggest reason I see both of those guys back, is that we won't get much value back for them

Ppl on here think we can trade Ennis or Girgs for this defenseman we need
I think it's gonna have to be Fasching or Bailey
Here's why...

1) Cheaper- on ELC deals. Teams are finally becoming a bit screwed by the Cap & need to get cheaper talent when they can.

2) All u see is upside- no concussion, no scoring drop off, etc

3) Age- not just that they're younger, but more importantly, they won't have to be protected in an expansion draft. That is definitely gonna play a role in trades made this offseason. I guarantee it

- jdfitz77


All good points fitz.

You need to keep that 3rd line cap friendly but I don't see Girgs or Foligno breaking the bank this summer. I definitely think Fasching finds his way in the top 6 next year and Bailey has made enough progress in Roch to get him in that 3rd line role.

As for Ennis, teams might covet his speed and he's been a nice point producer in the past. I remember a few years ago hearing Bob Murray in Anaheim has tried to get him so ya never know.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Mar 27 @ 12:00 PM ET
All good points fitz.

You need to keep that 3rd line cap friendly but I don't see Girgs or Foligno breaking the bank this summer. I definitely think Fasching finds his way in the top 6 next year and Bailey has made enough progress in Roch to get him in that 3rd line role.

As for Ennis, teams might covet his speed and he's been a nice point producer in the past. I remember a few years ago hearing Bob Murray in Anaheim has tried to get him so ya never know.

- mhp



Well, in Anaheim's case for instance...
They've got 5 or 6 young defenseman they'd like to keep, which obviously can't happen
So for them, it makes sense to trade one for a good return
Then protect the 4 they like best, which means they only protect 4 forwards
Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Silfverberg

Does it make more sense for them to take Ennis, who they'd then have to leave unprotected...
Or Fasching, who they wouldn't have to worry about?


homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Mar 27 @ 12:02 PM ET
Exactly why signing Stamkos (or any player) to a $10-$11 million deal in Buffalo would be a disaster. The guy doesn't put up a point a game and he gets crucified.
- fastek

the team hasn't won a playoff series in 9 years, only made it twice during that stretch and you don't think we need the best free agent since #99 hit the market?


unreal



regarding the cap hit with stamkos, I gotta lean on murray with prospects to fill the bottom half of the roster, which is needed when you have a lot of money tied up in a few players


guys like
guhle
borgen
stephens
martin
nelson on d

karabacek (tearing it up lately)
cornel
fasching
carrier
estephan
olofsson up front

Johansson in net



and that's only 2 years, with the first rd picks already anchoring the big club



this team will be fine with stamkos for a long time

Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Mar 27 @ 12:04 PM ET
Well, in Anaheim's case for instance...
They've got 5 or 6 young defenseman they'd like to keep, which obviously can't happen
So for them, it makes sense to trade one for a good return
Then protect the 4 they like best, which means they only protect 4 forwards
Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Silfverberg

Does it make more sense for them to take Ennis, who they'd then have to leave unprotected...
Or Fasching, who they wouldn't have to worry about?

- jdfitz77


Given his contract it wouldn't shock me at all if he's the guy they leave un protected.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Mar 27 @ 12:12 PM ET
Given his contract it wouldn't shock me at all if he's the guy they leave un protected.
- Sabresfan-365



And if they did,
They'd wanna protect Ritchie

My point is...
Even if a team were to give us Value for Ennis based off of previous years, it still might not make sense for them to take him as part of a trade if he isn't gonna be protected

If you were the Ducks GM,
What would you do?

I'd say it's gotta be Bailey or Fasching, and most likely I'd want Fasching over Bailey if I'm giving up Lindholm, Vatenen, etc
Mentalorgasm5
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.29.2007

Mar 27 @ 12:14 PM ET
That could happen sooner than we might think...

Kane-O'Reilly-Reinhart
Eichel-Stamkos-Fasching
Ennis-Girgensons-Bailey
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
Deslauriers

That could happen at some point next year
More likely the following year though, with Schaller likely replacing Gionta

- jdfitz77


I was just playing around with armchair GM. If the sabres sign stamkos, they need to trade ennis.

Stamkos 11 million for 7 years
Foligno 2.1 for 2 years (I believe this is the min raise)
Girgensons 3.25 for 2 years
Deslauriers .702 tender
Larsson .88 tender
Ristolainen 5.5 for 6 years (gets him until UFA)
McCabe 1.5 for 2 years
McCormick to LTIR
Moulson sent to the AHL
Call up Ullmark (this is the cheap route, rather than signing a UFA)

This only leaves us 436k in cap space, and we would still need a 4th liner, along with room for forward depth (call ups/signings) and a 7th defenseman.

I think ennis being hurt will damage our chances of stamkos, solely due to the fact we won't be able to trade ennis. Some would argue others such as Deslauriers/Larsson/Foligno won't be here, but their caps are modest and we would still need to sign someone to fill their spots. So not much of savings can be argued.

Ennis and Moulson have me thinking it won't be possible to bring in Stamkos.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Mar 27 @ 12:26 PM ET
I was just playing around with armchair GM. If the sabres sign stamkos, they need to trade ennis.

Stamkos 11 million for 7 years
Foligno 2.1 for 2 years (I believe this is the min raise)
Girgensons 3.25 for 2 years
Deslauriers .702 tender
Larsson .88 tender
Ristolainen 5.5 for 6 years (gets him until UFA)
McCabe 1.5 for 2 years
McCormick to LTIR
Moulson sent to the AHL
Call up Ullmark (this is the cheap route, rather than signing a UFA)

This only leaves us 436k in cap space, and we would still need a 4th liner, along with room for forward depth (call ups/signings) and a 7th defenseman.

I think ennis being hurt will damage our chances of stamkos, solely due to the fact we won't be able to trade ennis. Some would argue others such as Deslauriers/Larsson/Foligno won't be here, but their caps are modest and we would still need to sign someone to fill their spots. So not much of savings can be argued.

Ennis and Moulson have me thinking it won't be possible to bring in Stamkos.

- Mentalorgasm5




There's lots of things we could do
Moulson is the toughest to move, but if u include a draft pick it might be possible
Pronger recently got moved

But if not...
I'm sure that Gionta &/or Gorges can be moved
And each of their salaries pretty much equal Ennis
Khymlev13
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Jimbo83 is a steaming turd tha, NY
Joined: 07.22.2006

Mar 27 @ 2:31 PM ET
Good points
As long as Tampa will take a 3rd for his rights
I don't wanna give up out 2nd
We can add in a mid level prospect, like Carrier or Karabacek if they want
Something like that anyways

- jdfitz77


There will be at least 2-3 teams willing to trade for his rights that he would sign with. I think you may be underestimating what TB will get for his rights. He's a premier goal scorer. 2nd line players are worth a 3rd
Deuce81
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 03.11.2016

Mar 27 @ 4:27 PM ET
There will be at least 2-3 teams willing to trade for his rights that he would sign with. I think you may be underestimating what TB will get for his rights. He's a premier goal scorer. 2nd line players are worth a 3rd
- Khymlev13


But it's up to Stamkos who gets those rights. He's got the NTC. Tampa has no leverage.
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