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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Chicago-St. Louis Breakdown And Prediction
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Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Apr 12 @ 9:00 PM ET
Realistically is Mashinter going to play more than 5 minutes? Unless you guys are up big or this game goes to OT I don't see it.

Q is going to try to sneak him on the ice during play. Not trot him out there and let Hitch have last change.

- Gerk


What about when there is an icing call while Mashinter is on the ice? The one goal given up in that scenario could lose a series or at least a game forcing the core to go through another 60 minutes in the 1st round vs the Blues Grinder?

And as has been mentioned how are you rolling 4 lines with this guy dressed effectively giving away the talent depth advantage you have over the Blues? You're gonna out-physical the Blues with or without Mash?

There is no other way to describe Mash dressing than it's a complete abomination.

As a fan no choice but to defer but once the inheritor of Kane/Toews/Hossa/Keith/Seabs/Hammer/Buff/Ladd stops winning cups it's total open season on Q. Until then he gets my trust.

If Q really believes Mash is better that's fine but if he's starting this guy to make a point I think he's severely misplaying his cards and doesn't understand his place in the organizational pecking order.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Apr 12 @ 9:06 PM ET
What about when there is an icing call while Mashinter is on the ice? The one goal given up in that scenario could lose a series or at least a game forcing the core to go through another 60 minutes in the 1st round vs the Blues Grinder?

And as has been mentioned how are you rolling 4 lines with this guy dressed effectively giving away the talent depth advantage you have over the Blues? You're gonna out-physical the Blues with or without Mash?

There is no other way to describe Mash dressing than it's a complete abomination.

As a fan no choice but to defer but once the inheritor of Kane/Toews/Hossa/Keith/Seabs/Hammer/Buff/Ladd stops winning cups it's total open season on Q. Until then he gets my trust.

If Q really believes Mash is better that's fine but if he's starting this guy to make a point I think he's severely misplaying his cards and doesn't understand his place in the organizational pecking order.

- Mr Ricochet



Cant say it enough.. I just dont get what Q is trying to do here. It really comes across like he is trying to make a statment to Bowman about his opinion on the roster. It better work out. We will need four lines to win this series. If Q goes 3 lines and plays Mash's line 5-6 mins, he will wear his team out.

EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 12 @ 9:06 PM ET
http://regressing.deadspi...pecialists-don-1442618145

Edit: "In almost all cases teams with more fighting majors tend to experience more injuries and be on the receiving end of more stick infraction penalties. I took a slightly different angle in."
TexasFlood
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Deep in the heart a .. .
Joined: 02.02.2013

Apr 12 @ 9:13 PM ET
What about when there is an icing call while Mashinter is on the ice? The one goal given up in that scenario could lose a series or at least a game forcing the core to go through another 60 minutes in the 1st round vs the Blues Grinder?

And as has been mentioned how are you rolling 4 lines with this guy dressed effectively giving away the talent depth advantage you have over the Blues? You're gonna out-physical the Blues with or without Mash?

There is no other way to describe Mash dressing than it's a complete abomination.

As a fan no choice but to defer but once the inheritor of Kane/Toews/Hossa/Keith/Seabs/Hammer/Buff/Ladd stops winning cups it's total open season on Q. Until then he gets my trust.

If Q really believes Mash is better that's fine but if he's starting this guy to make a point I think he's severely misplaying his cards and doesn't understand his place in the organizational pecking order.

- Mr Ricochet

Well articulated. And the ultimate rhetorical question, what does he see what the minions here don't?

But quite frankly, we can argue about the spare parts forever, but "the core" hasn't played well all year, minus Kane and the new addition Bread man. If the so called elite doesn't crank their game up, it will be a short run.

And yes, that means Keith, Hammer, Seabrook(wonder if Q will actually let him lay a defensive body check), the capitan, and the aging Mr. Hossa.
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Apr 12 @ 9:22 PM ET
So let's see, I seem to recall several press conferences with Q and Stan where both were saying (Q in particular) that the D was "fine" and they were trying to strengthen the F corps.

So . . . what does Stan do?
He goes out and gets Q the top UFA in Ladd.
Picks up Panik for nothing (Morin).
And trades Danault for Flash & Weise.

Hawks fans here celebrate but wonder about Q noting the "D is fine" statement.
Stan also proceeds to dump Daley -- who could never figure out Q's system well enough or refused to (depending upon who one believes here) -- for Scuderi. Scuderi comes in and proves he's washed up in Q's system. And Stan goes and flips Rob for Ehrhoff, who immediately comes in and looks to be light-years better than both Daley and Scuderi. Until he isn't. And finds his way into Q's permanent doghouse.

Which brings all of us back full-circle to Q's "D is fine" statement.
And Stan believing Q's statement going out and getting 3 forwards for Q. All of whom are clearly far better hockey players than Mashinter.

And yet, here we are, 24 hours away from puck drop, with Q pulling the same crap he's pulled in the past. Everyone can have their 3 Cups coach -- who clearly is trying to prove a point to his VP/GM based upon the lineup he's icing tomorrow night. Everyone's angst about #53 isn't about #53 to #14 or #25 but more about what his presence means for #86 and #12 and the trickle down effect on the rest of the club.

Q's evil genius ways are going to blow up in his face. Maybe this is the year it becomes very obvious to everyone and not just some.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Apr 12 @ 9:23 PM ET
I would argue that calling it a flea on an elephant's ass is undermining the significance of the decision.

The Hawks strength in previous cup runs was their ability to roll 4 lines consistently. We've seen all too often throughout the course of the season one line becoming completely ineffective when Mash taters is on it. This forces Q to shorten the bench and roll 3 lines, or start double shifting guys which isn't ideal given the amount of mileage they have on their legs.

Playing Mash has a snowball effect in that way. If he's on a line, that line gets less ice time, forcing others to play more, which wears on them (I would imagine) in the playoffs since it's basically 1 game every other day.

Are we arguing forward #12 vs forward #13? Yes. Does it impact the rest of the team? I would say that it does. But what do I know?

- roots_gamble


Well said, sir. It's a domino effect the same as adding Ladd and sending Shaw from 1LW to 4RW. This completely changes the dynamic of the whole team and to the opposing coach.

If you don't have to beat the living hell out of your horse (the core) or can find a way to win and not beat him you do it.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Apr 12 @ 9:33 PM ET
So let's see, I seem to recall several press conferences with Q and Stan where both were saying (Q in particular) that the D was "fine" and they were trying to strengthen the F corps.

So . . . what does Stan do?
He goes out and gets Q the top UFA in Ladd.
Picks up Panik for nothing (Morin).
And trades Danault for Flash & Weise.

Hawks fans here celebrate but wonder about Q noting the "D is fine" statement.
Stan also proceeds to dump Daley -- who could never figure out Q's system well enough or refused to (depending upon who one believes here) -- for Scuderi. Scuderi comes in and proves he's washed up in Q's system. And Stan goes and flips Rob for Ehrhoff, who immediately comes in and looks to be light-years better than both Daley and Scuderi. Until he isn't. And finds his way into Q's permanent doghouse.

Which brings all of us back full-circle to Q's "D is fine" statement.
And Stan believing Q's statement going out and getting 3 forwards for Q. All of whom are clearly far better hockey players than Mashinter.

And yet, here we are, 24 hours away from puck drop, with Q pulling the same crap he's pulled in the past. Everyone can have their 3 Cups coach -- who clearly is trying to prove a point to his VP/GM based upon the lineup he's icing tomorrow night. Everyone's angst about #53 isn't about #53 to #14 or #25 but more about what his presence means for #86 and #12 and the trickle down effect on the rest of the club.

Q's evil genius ways are going to blow up in his face. Maybe this is the year it becomes very obvious to everyone and not just some.

- savvyone-1


Savvy I for one never believe most, if not all, public comments coaches/GM's make when it comes to anything meaningful. Really when all is said and done you have to read between the lines but the best indicator is show my eyes don't tell my ears.

In this case we see Mash. Today Q thinks Mash is better than his other options.

But as far as adding a 4D at the TDL if I had to bet a dollar I'd say there just wasn't one available for a reasonable price so StanBowPops&McD did the next best thing and added more talent at the forward spot with the theory being that will keep the puck at the other end more, ie making the defense better overall.
TexasFlood
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Deep in the heart a .. .
Joined: 02.02.2013

Apr 12 @ 9:41 PM ET
So let's see, I seem to recall several press conferences with Q and Stan where both were saying (Q in particular) that the D was "fine" and they were trying to strengthen the F corps.

So . . . what does Stan do?
He goes out and gets Q the top UFA in Ladd.
Picks up Panik for nothing (Morin).
And trades Danault for Flash & Weise.

Hawks fans here celebrate but wonder about Q noting the "D is fine" statement.
Stan also proceeds to dump Daley -- who could never figure out Q's system well enough or refused to (depending upon who one believes here) -- for Scuderi. Scuderi comes in and proves he's washed up in Q's system. And Stan goes and flips Rob for Ehrhoff, who immediately comes in and looks to be light-years better than both Daley and Scuderi. Until he isn't. And finds his way into Q's permanent doghouse.

Which brings all of us back full-circle to Q's "D is fine" statement.
And Stan believing Q's statement going out and getting 3 forwards for Q. All of whom are clearly far better hockey players than Mashinter.

And yet, here we are, 24 hours away from puck drop, with Q pulling the same crap he's pulled in the past. Everyone can have their 3 Cups coach -- who clearly is trying to prove a point to his VP/GM based upon the lineup he's icing tomorrow night. Everyone's angst about #53 isn't about #53 to #14 or #25 but more about what his presence means for #86 and #12 and the trickle down effect on the rest of the club.

Q's evil genius ways are going to blow up in his face. Maybe this is the year it becomes very obvious to everyone and not just some.

- savvyone-1

Good points Savvy. But correct me if I'm wrong. Didn't Q just get a long term extension? And what is Bowmans contract situation?

Perhaps Q's ego has gotten the best of him. Things seem to be headed for a showdown soon in the front office. We've all seen it. Bowman makes the trades but Q continues his mind games and benchings.

And to me, as a long time observer, absolutely no response when your stars get run. Make no mistake, this comes from the Coach. And for the love of God, I'd had it with "active sticks" in the defensive zone. Last time I checked defensive body checks and leaning on someone in the crease was allowed.

Man has won a ton and three Cups. However, he's not above reproach and criticism.

And back to your original premise Savvy, wholeheartedly agree.
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Apr 12 @ 9:41 PM ET
But as far as adding a 4D at the TDL if I had to bet a dollar I'd say there just wasn't one available for a reasonable price so StanBowPops&McD did the next best thing and added more talent at the forward spot with the theory being that will keep the puck at the other end more, ie making the defense better overall.
- Mr Ricochet

Mr Ricochet, agree w/your 1st sentence and they did add more F strength to keep the puck in the O zone.

Ultimately, the #53 conundrum is a microcosm of what I see wrong with the executive direction of this club under Q. By not icing your best 12 F's you put add'l minutes/miles on legs that have seen far more toil than any other team in the league. Can't wait for the double-shifting of Kane and a few others while 53 gets his huge 5 TOI.

As a player, I cannot believe Kane, Toews, Hossa and others are fine with this -- regardless of them not minding more minutes they have to realize this weakens their overall ability to win 16 games, much less the needed 4 right ahead of them.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 12 @ 9:42 PM ET
>66, muchas gracias
>Think the combination of studying the game year after year and my pattern recognition "chops" really help
>Some come to JJ's "hockey saloon" for reasons other than why I do -- and that's the way it should be
>I come to learn and share what I see -- and am happy some enjoy my posts

- SnapitUpstairs



Glad you're here too.
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Apr 12 @ 9:48 PM ET
Good points Savvy. But correct me if I'm wrong. Didn't Q just get a long term extension? And what is Bowmans contract situation?

Perhaps Q's ego has gotten the best of him. Things seem to be headed for a showdown soon in the front office. We've all seen it. Bowman makes the trades but Q continues his mind games and benchings.

And to me, as a long time observer, absolutely no response when your stars get run. Make no mistake, this comes from the Coach. And for the love of God, I'd had it with "active sticks" in the defensive zone. Last time I checked defensive body checks and leaning on someone in the crease was allowed.

Man has won a ton and three Cups. However, he's not above reproach and criticism.

And back to your original premise Savvy, wholeheartedly agree.

- TexasFlood

Thanks Tex, back at ya!
Yes, Q just got re-upped and so did Stan IIRC, both for big bucks.
As I alluded to yesterday to Maria, I think Stan and Q can be found in the men's room having a "sword fight" over the stalls. And the recall of Rundblad smacks of another idiotic move. I suspect if we see that goof on the ice during the StL series, we'll be getting ready to wave goodbye to our heroes as they head off to the links.

Yes, yes, Q has 3 Cups. I have to remind myself of this constantly as I bang my head against the wall watching that 3rd line. It's amazing as a few have pointed out how those sent to Siberia by Q seem to be flourishing just fine elsewhere. Got to think to myself that a few other coaches would have won those 3 Cups as well with this core.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Apr 12 @ 9:51 PM ET
Thanks Tex, back at ya!
Yes, Q just got re-upped and so did Stan IIRC, both for big bucks.
As I alluded to yesterday to Maria, I think Stan and Q can be found in the men's room having a "sword fight" over the stalls. And the recall of Rundblad smacks of another idiotic move. I suspect if we see that goof on the ice during the StL series, we'll be getting ready to wave goodbye to our heroes as they head off to the links.

Yes, yes, Q has 3 Cups. I have to remind myself of this constantly as I bang my head against the wall watching that 3rd line. It's amazing as a few have pointed out how those sent to Siberia by Q seem to be flourishing just fine elsewhere. Got to think to myself that a few other coaches would have won those 3 Cups as well with this core.

- savvyone-1



Every head coach in every sport has a shelf life. We have a chance for history here. To repeat in the salary cap era. To win a 4th Cup. 4th!!!! Good coaches know how to get every ounce out of their rosters. This smells of head games by our HC. Its dumb and not needed.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Apr 12 @ 9:56 PM ET
Just listening to the Scott Powers/Brian Hedger series preview podcast and one of them mentioned that Panik has as many 5-on-5 goals as Hossa this year. Put the issues with that 1st line in perspective.
- pdx2ord


yep...and toews has been a monster with goals in OT, PP, PK and empty netters...5 on 5 not so much...

toews + hossa are less than 20 goals combined 5 on 5....

put that in our pipes and smoke on that for awhile...
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Apr 12 @ 9:59 PM ET
Good points Savvy. But correct me if I'm wrong. Didn't Q just get a long term extension? And what is Bowmans contract situation?

Perhaps Q's ego has gotten the best of him. Things seem to be headed for a showdown soon in the front office. We've all seen it. Bowman makes the trades but Q continues his mind games and benchings.

And to me, as a long time observer, absolutely no response when your stars get run. Make no mistake, this comes from the Coach. And for the love of God, I'd had it with "active sticks" in the defensive zone. Last time I checked defensive body checks and leaning on someone in the crease was allowed.

Man has won a ton and three Cups. However, he's not above reproach and criticism.

And back to your original premise Savvy, wholeheartedly agree.

- TexasFlood


You're right he's not above criticism, however you and Savvy are going to some extremes with your statements. I don't think the situation between coach and GM is as bad as you're making it sound.
ILGolfer
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Northwest burbs, IL
Joined: 06.18.2015

Apr 12 @ 10:00 PM ET
Mr Ricochet, agree w/your 1st sentence and they did add more F strength to keep the puck in the O zone.

Ultimately, the #53 conundrum is a microcosm of what I see wrong with the executive direction of this club under Q. By not icing your best 12 F's you put add'l minutes/miles on legs that have seen far more toil than any other team in the league. Can't wait for the double-shifting of Kane and a few others while 53 gets his huge 5 TOI.

As a player, I cannot believe Kane, Toews, Hossa and others are fine with this -- regardless of them not minding more minutes they have to realize this weakens their overall ability to win 16 games, much less the needed 4 right ahead of them.

- savvyone-1


Q's contract runs thru 19-20 and Stan's thru 20-21. And I think anyone who believes that Toews, Kane, etc don't see what's happening are putting their heads in the sand. This is getting close to dysfunctional and it doesn't need to be. Again, I think Stan's done a very good job of getting talent and Q is going to the HOF but I can't stress enough that until Q got here with this core, he never won a Cup.

I'd rather have a very good GM, great players and a so-so coach then a team with a good GM, average players and a great coach any day. Like all sports, its the players stupid (not you savvy)...
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Apr 12 @ 10:02 PM ET
yep...and toews has been a monster with goals in OT, PP, PK and empty netters...5 on 5 not so much...

toews + hossa are less than 20 goals combined 5 on 5....

put that in our pipes and smoke on that for awhile...

- bogiedoc


Thats why adding Ladd was key for that top line. He can shoot with accuracy and he goes to the front of the net. Toews has gotten it going lately, and if those 2 can hit the back of the net Hossa will be just fine. You know he'll be buzzing around generating scoring chances, even if he can't finish as well anymore.
etchtech
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.30.2015

Apr 12 @ 10:31 PM ET
This chart says it all. The chart shows shots against vs. shots for for each player and Mashinter.

The blue box is Mashinter without the player
The black box is the player with Mashinter
The red box is the player without Mashinter

Almost in no case is someone better with Mashinter than they are without him. I've circled TT and Fleischmann as an example. Both TT and Fleischmann take fewer shots while also allowing more shots when on the ice with Mashinter. On the other end of the spectrum is Panarin. If you look at his chart, it appears that he makes almost every other player better when on the ice together.

bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Apr 12 @ 10:35 PM ET
And your grief as a Cub fan is about to end. This team is stacked. A damn shame about Schwarber though.

And this from a fan who witnessed the collapse of 69 and remembers it vividly. Nine and a half games up after the Kenny Holtzman no hitter in the middle of August. Remember the Hank Aaron fly ball blown back into the well where Billy Williams made the catch.

Quite frankly, going to be a tough night tomorrow. The Hawks who I'm down on, and the Cubs whom I'm extremely fired up about.

I can't believe I just typed that last sentence.

- TexasFlood



man we got alot of old farts here....and black cat at shea as the caught and passed
BMWChiFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: St Louis, MO
Joined: 04.12.2016

Apr 12 @ 10:37 PM ET
You're right he's not above criticism, however you and Savvy are going to some extremes with your statements. I don't think the situation between coach and GM is as bad as you're making it sound.
- SimpleJack

I agree. It seems like some of the posters here would prefer when there was no difference of opinion between the GM and coach - like the good old days when Pulford was both! Ugh!
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Apr 12 @ 10:37 PM ET
This chart says it all. The chart shows shots against vs. shots for for each player and Mashinter.

The blue box is Mashinter without the player
The black box is the player with Mashinter
The red box is the player without Mashinter

Almost in no case is someone better with Mashinter than they are without him. I've circled TT and Fleischmann as an example. Both TT and Fleischmann take fewer shots while also allowing more shots when on the ice with Mashinter. On the other end of the spectrum is Panarin. If you look at his chart, it appears that he makes almost every other player better when on the ice together.


- etchtech


ecth...where do you find this stuff...please email to Q and company....tt needs to play with skill guys...and he gets a plugs plug on his wing...

if mash directly costs this team tomorrow....ohhhh boy...this board will have about 2000 posts hang Q in effigy...
Colbyboy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Summerside , PEI
Joined: 12.14.2013

Apr 12 @ 10:42 PM ET
Scotty Bowman has a lot of influence with this team...never forget that. However
Joel calls who is on the ice and where and who they play with.

A lot of chatter on the board now and in the past. Down 3-1 to Detroit in 2013 was maybe the best.
Talk is talk. Lets' get at it tomorrow night ...go Hawks go

whoever they may be.
TexasFlood
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Deep in the heart a .. .
Joined: 02.02.2013

Apr 12 @ 10:46 PM ET
man we got alot of old farts here....and black cat at shea as the caught and passed
- bogiedoc

And Ronnie's look at it on the on deck circle. And Hundley's losing his mind at the controversial play at the plate that series.
TexasFlood
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Deep in the heart a .. .
Joined: 02.02.2013

Apr 12 @ 10:49 PM ET
I agree. It seems like some of the posters here would prefer when there was no difference of opinion between the GM and coach - like the good old days when Pulford was both! Ugh!
- BMWChiFan

To each their own. Merely discussion points.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Apr 12 @ 10:55 PM ET
Scotty Bowman has a lot of influence with this team...never forget that. However
Joel calls who is on the ice and where and who they play with.

A lot of chatter on the board now and in the past. Down 3-1 to Detroit in 2013 was maybe the best.
Talk is talk. Lets' get at it tomorrow night ...go Hawks go

whoever they may be.

- Colbyboy



There ya go. Game on.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Apr 12 @ 11:06 PM ET
Q's contract runs thru 19-20 and Stan's thru 20-21. And I think anyone who believes that Toews, Kane, etc don't see what's happening are putting their heads in the sand. This is getting close to dysfunctional and it doesn't need to be. Again, I think Stan's done a very good job of getting talent and Q is going to the HOF but I can't stress enough that until Q got here with this core, he never won a Cup.

I'd rather have a very good GM, great players and a so-so coach then a team with a good GM, average players and a great coach any day. Like all sports, its the players stupid (not you savvy)...

- ILGolfer

Dysfunctional? Sounds like somebody with inside information.

Q is on the hot seat internally and externally every season, every playoff series. He wins far more than most but nobody wins every time. Even Scotty couldn't and he was the inventor and master of f$cking with player's heads.

And it is common knowledge that Babcock and Ken Holland frequently disagreed on player personnel and playing time. Didn't seem to effect the Red Wings very much.


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