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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Chicago-St. Louis Breakdown And Prediction
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gnosox1986
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 01.25.2012

Apr 11 @ 8:29 AM ET
I'll get this out of the way first... Hawks in 6. They steal one in STL over the first week, and then find their stride.

This is the playoffs. This is Kane. This is Toews. This is what the Hawks play for.

Toews has been a full .15 points per game less than his career average this year (.72 per game). Maybe I just have hawks colored glasses on, but I'd like to think he comes back to is average in the playoffs (.87 per game). Kane has the Art Ross in hand, and this blues team is one that he does well against (basically a Point per Game vs STL over the last 3 years).

And now for the longest 3 days of the season...
etchtech
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.30.2015

Apr 11 @ 8:38 AM ET
Spot on sir. IF this team is being held to the highest standard then the GM needs to be as well. The Hawks biggest need heading into this season was a #4dman - whether that was Oduya or a replacement and Stanley whiffed badly. I'm sick of the majority giving Bowman a pass. With the talent that was and is here your window to win is right now and Stan failed to address that need. The clock is running on all your core guys. And the goal is to win it all is it not?

But how bout that he targeted Timonen last spring (who was done) and then went out of his way to resign Runny immediately last summer when the guy clearly had no business being on this team. Whether most of Runny's cap space can be taken off the books is irrelevant...the fact that he signed this clown is. And then he's forced to take Daley in a horrid deal with the Stars no less while gift wrapping three players which have certainly helped Dallas this season.

Its extremely hard to win one Cup let alone 3. But this is the golden age of hockey in this town and its not going to last forever. Bowman needs to do whatever is necessary to try to maximize winning the Cup every year in that window that he has.

- DK002

Daley was the 4D - that was the plan until he was chased off the team. Is he Oduya, no, but definitely an NHL caliber defenseman. He's logging solid minutes in Pittsburgh and appears to be part of the reason Letang has had such an exceptional 2nd half.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 11 @ 8:42 AM ET
I'm not saying Panik will be a star, just that he'll likely be as good as Dano could have been in Chicago. Likely 3RW at best.
- DarthKane



He has an NHL body and speed and as long as he uses those two things, he has enough skill and refinement to his game to be a decent lower line player. One of those guys who will have to embrace that role and never stop working because he doesn't possess the skill of a top 6 guy. Wiz pointed it out. The puck is a little bit of a hand grenade on his blade.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 11 @ 8:48 AM ET
Spot on sir. IF this team is being held to the highest standard then the GM needs to be as well. The Hawks biggest need heading into this season was a #4dman - whether that was Oduya or a replacement and Stanley whiffed badly. I'm sick of the majority giving Bowman a pass. With the talent that was and is here your window to win is right now and Stan failed to address that need. The clock is running on all your core guys. And the goal is to win it all is it not?

But how bout that he targeted Timonen last spring (who was done) and then went out of his way to resign Runny immediately last summer when the guy clearly had no business being on this team. Whether most of Runny's cap space can be taken off the books is irrelevant...the fact that he signed this clown is. And then he's forced to take Daley in a horrid deal with the Stars no less while gift wrapping three players which have certainly helped Dallas this season.

Its extremely hard to win one Cup let alone 3. But this is the golden age of hockey in this town and its not going to last forever. Bowman needs to do whatever is necessary to try to maximize winning the Cup every year in that window that he has.

- DK002


I think you can lay some things at both Stanley's feet and Q's feet this year—and what I've heard is their relationship has deteriorated again this year over these things. I know some don't like to have Storybook Land sullied by those sort of rumors, but it does seem that they are not in lockstep at all this year (see: Daley, Garbutt, Sekac, etc)

What will be interesting is the next chapter—if they do go out in the first or second round—and my gut sense is, unless they are unexpectedly strong in round 1, the Hawks will not make it past the second round—how or if Q and Stanley can come together and rectify things, make the right decisions and go from there.

This will not be an easy summer again, money and personnel wise.
sycsam
St Louis Blues
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.26.2008

Apr 11 @ 9:05 AM ET
Lots of questions entering this series for both teams.

How will the Hawks D look under pressure?
How will the blues rookies play in the playoffs?
How will Troy Brouwer impact the game?
Is Corey Crawford healthy?
Can Elliott be the man?
Can the hawks "flip the switch?"

Going to be a fun series hopefully the blues win so I can stop hearing it from my in laws

Good Luck Hawk fans and hopefully it is a hard fought clean series
67hawks
Joined: 08.30.2012

Apr 11 @ 9:17 AM ET
Daley was the 4D - that was the plan until he was chased off the team. Is he Oduya, no, but definitely an NHL caliber defenseman. He's logging solid minutes in Pittsburgh and appears to be part of the reason Letang has had such an exceptional 2nd half.
- etchtech


Exactly!
So don't blame Bowman because he did do his job.
FourOrr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Libertyville, IL
Joined: 01.26.2012

Apr 11 @ 9:28 AM ET
JJ, you nailed it! I might add that IMO another big key is the Hawks forwards being very strong on the backcheck to help what is a somewhat fragile defense.
Thanks for your excellent analysis and objectivity!
hocktock
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Over by dere.
Joined: 07.15.2015

Apr 11 @ 9:36 AM ET
It seems to me that some of you actually think you would be better gms than Stan. I think that you're stupid. Are you thinking hockey and surrounded by hockey minds more than Stan? Then maybe you're insane. I have no idea what this team could have done in your minds to have a better run over the past 6 years. The fact that we didn't win every year proves it's not easy and the competition is getting better. With fans like you, who needs detroit.

Hocks in 6.

GO HOCKS!
phantasmo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 01.13.2016

Apr 11 @ 9:40 AM ET
Off-topic, but did anyone else watch the title game on Saturday night? Barry Melrose said repeatedly that he thought Schmaltz was the best person on the ice. I had to agree that in the o-zone, his puck control and vision really tore Quinnipiac apart. The CBS line was dominant.

Does anyone think he will be in Rockford next year, or one more year at ND?
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 11 @ 9:52 AM ET
Off-topic, but did anyone else watch the title game on Saturday night? Barry Melrose said repeatedly that he thought Schmaltz was the best person on the ice. I had to agree that in the o-zone, his puck control and vision really tore Quinnipiac apart. The CBS line was dominant.

Does anyone think he will be in Rockford next year, or one more year at ND?

- phantasmo



I'm hoping both Schmaltz and Johnson are in Rickford next season.

I watched UND's last 4 games in the tournament, he was consistently one of the best forwards on the ice. I would be nice to see Stan bring Caggiula on board too.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Apr 11 @ 9:56 AM ET
So this is how I would break it down:

The Blues have no one to stop Kane and Panarin regardless of who centers them. Those guys are going to run rampant. Also, Toews seems to have found an extra gear and that can't be discounted.

I think Ladd and Weise will be sent out with instructions to light guys up down low. Like Bickell did against Nashville. Only there are two of them so you'd think there would be a good measure of effectiveness there. Plus, Ladd has some finish and Weise can skate good. In line with that, the Hawks being able to roll 4 lines and maintain a high and aggressive forecheck on the less than creative Blues defenders will be essential to their success. Basically, keep the puck far away and look to pick off stuff between the lines that pressure coughs up.

Aside from Kooga winning all of the draws, if they decide they want to put bodies on the points and deny that initial shot the PK improves dramatically. 13-14 they were just as poor during the regular season and then locked it down in the playoffs so I'm going to assume we see a repeat of that situation there.

Other than Tarasenko, the Blues don't have a lot to go over the top with. Nor do they have another player that can create space with speed that has victimized the Hawks defenders for most of the year. This isn't a series that worries me defensively. Crow should be able to get by with average play to keep them alive.

Hawks in 5.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Apr 11 @ 10:00 AM ET
I think you can lay some things at both Stanley's feet and Q's feet this year—and what I've heard is their relationship has deteriorated again this year over these things. I know some don't like to have Storybook Land sullied by those sort of rumors, but it does seem that they are not in lockstep at all this year (see: Daley, Garbutt, Sekac, etc)

What will be interesting is the next chapter—if they do go out in the first or second round—and my gut sense is, unless they are unexpectedly strong in round 1, the Hawks will not make it past the second round—how or if Q and Stanley can come together and rectify things, make the right decisions and go from there.

This will not be an easy summer again, money and personnel wise.

- John Jaeckel


You'd think there needs to be a mini blow up of some sorts because math. The deeper they go, the more forgiving an off year will be next year IMO.

They need big production out of the top two lines and an inhuman performance by Keith again but stranger things have happened. Like Carolina winning a Cup.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Apr 11 @ 10:01 AM ET
Ok, Ask Johnathen Toews what he thinks after not having a 6"2 220 lb. 22year old left wing who probably will put up John LeClair numbers by the time his career will be over.
You don't think Toews wasn't biting his tongue many nights this year with the revolving door on left wing and a declining hurt some time Hossa on the right side.
9 out of 10 guys would take Saad over AA. The problem I have with the deal isn't AA , but it's the rest of the garbage Bowman got in the deal. Columbus has a lot of good up and coming players he could have asked for. Brett Gallant is 1, Jenner is another, he had a great year this year so I doubt he goes anywhere.
Stephan Johns is another huge burr under some fans skin especially after having to watch the other 2goofs he brought in. This last month was the true Hawks we saw, the rest of the league caught up. Hmmm gotta sign Shaw and Ladd also this summer.
If this summer turns out to be a flop Stan Bowman will be fired at some point next season. This last month pissed me off big time.

- wonthecup10

Of course Toews wanted Saad to stay but he wants to win and likely knew the numbers before we did. He knows the cap and he knows that he and Kane, 9% of the roster, uses 29% of the cap space. It's the tradeoff of superstar pay in a hard cap system. Too bad the NHL CBA doesn't have the cap renegotiation clauses of the NFL. I seem to remember a one Tom Brady doing this so the Pats can stay at the top of the heap.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Apr 11 @ 10:10 AM ET
So this is how I would break it down:

The Blues have no one to stop Kane and Panarin regardless of who centers them. Those guys are going to run rampant. Also, Toews seems to have found an extra gear and that can't be discounted.

I think Ladd and Weise will be sent out with instructions to light guys up down low. Like Bickell did against Nashville. Only there are two of them so you'd think there would be a good measure of effectiveness there. Plus, Ladd has some finish and Weise can skate good. In line with that, the Hawks being able to roll 4 lines and maintain a high and aggressive forecheck on the less than creative Blues defenders will be essential to their success. Basically, keep the puck far away and look to pick off stuff between the lines that pressure coughs up.

Aside from Kooga winning all of the draws, if they decide they want to put bodies on the points and deny that initial shot the PK improves dramatically. 13-14 they were just as poor during the regular season and then locked it down in the playoffs so I'm going to assume we see a repeat of that situation there.

Other than Tarasenko, the Blues don't have a lot to go over the top with. Nor do they have another player that can create space with speed that has victimized the Hawks defenders for most of the year. This isn't a series that worries me defensively. Crow should be able to get by with average play to keep them alive.

Hawks in 5.

- fattybeef

Still believe that those two were brought in specifically for hard-nose playoff hockey. Bickell can't keep up anymore. Weise's time to shine.
Hank_Greenberg
Joined: 09.30.2015

Apr 11 @ 10:22 AM ET

Thanks for the reasoned analysis as always, JJ.

I'm going with Hawks in 6 -- I'm not sure how far this team can ultimately go, and I agree that this year's model in St. Louis doesn't seem to be the same old Blues. Still, I give the edge to the Hawks at forward (assuming everyone is healthy), in the net, and on the bench.

Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 10:26 AM ET
Anyone else note that there are more Blues fans posts on a Blackhawks board than there are on the Blues board. Pathetic. The Blues fans need to play in the Hawks sandbox just to get some attention. And anyone else note there are about zero Hawks fans posts on the Blues board?

The Blues rival is the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks rival is anyone in the way of our next Stanley Cup.
biskit67
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.27.2015

Apr 11 @ 10:29 AM ET
I think the series comes down to the Hawks defensive play. Not just the defensemen, but the forwards too. For example, Panarin is a big defensive liability. He gives the puck away too often. If everybody is healthy though, most of the poor defensive forwards will be in the press box. 86 is a concern, but he knows he has to step up in the playoffs. #2 being out in game 1 means the 3rd d pairing is going to be vulnerable too. It's going to be a hard-hitting series, but the Hawks can get through that. If they make it to the second round, that will be more of a speed series with Dal or MN, which will be a different set of problems.

If the Hawks play the way they did against St. Louis last week, they should win this series. They can outplay this team.
Boisy12
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Plainfield, IL
Joined: 05.01.2009

Apr 11 @ 10:30 AM ET
He has an NHL body and speed and as long as he uses those two things, he has enough skill and refinement to his game to be a decent lower line player. One of those guys who will have to embrace that role and never stop working because he doesn't possess the skill of a top 6 guy. Wiz pointed it out. The puck is a little bit of a hand grenade on his blade.
- John Jaeckel


There are just certain guys that can score, and Panik seems to be that guy. He finds the puck in dirty areas, and puts the puck on net from multiple angles. I'm sure he is learning his defensive responsibilities under Q, but I like the upside to him at this point.
sycsam
St Louis Blues
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.26.2008

Apr 11 @ 10:41 AM ET
Anyone else note that there are more Blues fans posts on a Blackhawks board than there are on the Blues board. Pathetic. The Blues fans need to play in the Hawks sandbox just to get some attention. And anyone else note there are about zero Hawks fans posts on the Blues board?

The Blues rival is the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks rival is anyone in the way of our next Stanley Cup.

- Cmonalready


You are welcome to come over and chat with the five of us that are on this site.

Sorry we are hockey fans and like to chat with other hockey fans
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Apr 11 @ 10:45 AM ET
Anyone else note that there are more Blues fans posts on a Blackhawks board than there are on the Blues board. Pathetic. The Blues fans need to play in the Hawks sandbox just to get some attention. And anyone else note there are about zero Hawks fans posts on the Blues board?

The Blues rival is the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks rival is anyone in the way of our next Stanley Cup.

- Cmonalready

Hot take! Ring the bell.


Almost everyone that posts here also posts in the Blues threads. That just happens to be everyone that posts in the Blues threads. There are only like 10 of us.

I wouldn't make too much of that. The Blues have had terrible bloggers for years. When Andy Strickland left, we had a bunch of zeros until Jammer recently took over. There was next to no reason for any of us to keep coming to this site. Only the really crazy ones stayed.

You guys have not only been spoiled with a great team, but a great blogger as well. I would post here even if the Blues weren't rivals. There isn't any reason to pretend like we aren't really rivals. We have been your little brother that you easily beat over and over again.

But eventually little brother grows up and beats big brother. And I think anyone who thinks the Hawks will roll over the Blues is in for a wake up call.

This is not going up against little brother any longer.
CanOCorn
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: The OP, IL
Joined: 04.03.2013

Apr 11 @ 10:49 AM ET
and that cost them re-signing Oduya.

Sometimes I wonder if the Hawks really wanted to sign Oduya for another 3 years, at 34 he had definitely had reached his peak. Having him here until he was 37 , along with the other aging defenceman would had limited new blood being put in to develop. For this year sure would have been nice but going forward it would have not been beneficial

- HamiltonHawk


Right? And those same people are criticizing a contract for a player that grew up with this team. Was here when they were bad and has won three cups with them. Again, there are two reasons to pay someone:

For what he's done for you.
For what you think he's going to do for you.
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Apr 11 @ 10:55 AM ET
Hot take! Ring the bell.


Almost everyone that posts here also posts in the Blues threads. That just happens to be everyone that posts in the Blues threads. There is only like 10 of us.

I wouldn't make too much of that. The Blues have had terrible bloggers for years. When Andy Strickland left, we had a bunch of zeros until Jammer recently took over. There was next to no reason for any of us to keep coming to this site. Only the really crazy ones stayed.

You guys have not only been spoiled with a great team, but a great blogger as well. I would post here even if the Blues weren't rivals. There isn't any reason to pretend like we aren't really rivals. We have been your little brother that you easily beast over and over again.

But eventually little brother grows up and beats big brother. And I think anyone who thinks the Hawks will roll over the Blues is in for a wake up call.

This is not going up against little brother any longer.

- carcus


I recall when the Blackhawks were chasing the Redwings....what comes around goes around.
sycsam
St Louis Blues
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.26.2008

Apr 11 @ 10:58 AM ET
I recall when the Blackhawks were chasing the Redwings....what comes around goes around.
- powerenforcer


That is a fair analogy

Hawks chased the Wings for a couple of years

Blues have been chasing the hawks for much longer but this blues team is built differently than 2014

Going to be a close series IMO
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Apr 11 @ 11:20 AM ET
That is a fair analogy

Hawks chased the Wings for a couple of years

Blues have been chasing the hawks for much longer but this blues team is built differently than 2014

Going to be a close series IMO

- sycsam


Closer than I would like to have it.....
MartiniMan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Joined: 10.01.2006

Apr 11 @ 11:20 AM ET
Hot take! Ring the bell.


Almost everyone that posts here also posts in the Blues threads. That just happens to be everyone that posts in the Blues threads. There are only like 10 of us.

I wouldn't make too much of that. The Blues have had terrible bloggers for years. When Andy Strickland left, we had a bunch of zeros until Jammer recently took over. There was next to no reason for any of us to keep coming to this site. Only the really crazy ones stayed.

You guys have not only been spoiled with a great team, but a great blogger as well. I would post here even if the Blues weren't rivals. There isn't any reason to pretend like we aren't really rivals. We have been your little brother that you easily beat over and over again.

But eventually little brother grows up and beats big brother. And I think anyone who thinks the Hawks will roll over the Blues is in for a wake up call.

This is not going up against little brother any longer.

- carcus


They are still the little brother until such a time as they prove otherwise. Not saying they can't do it, but I'll believe it when I see it.

They still have the same core group that has wilted under playoff pressure time after time.
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