Sounds like a 1/5 we get a very nice suprise...doesn't sound like horrible options. I just don't want to move back really. Our D man is there at 8...especially with Dubois rising so much. There are certainly good arguments to trade any pick 1-11 and good reason to keep them. To me #1 is the only pick I don't trade. You don't pass on guys like Matthews, but a #1 LHD is worth more to this team than a top 6 winger where we sit. Remember Bailey, Baptiste, Estephan, Cornel, E-Rod, Fasching and Carrier will all come into camp next year trying to take spots from folks.
- RhinoFan

Good point...
Plus, there's the possibility we sign Vesey &/or Cagguila
Realizing that there's not room for all these guys here in the future...
I wonder who Murray might use as trade bait?
Fasching probably has the best value, followed by Bailey.
The others prob don't have the kind of value that would get us much in return, although I still like Baptiste & Ridrigues quite a bit

Well, if the dream came true and we got Matthews...that leaves quite a bit of trade bait, including next years 1st to get that #1 LHD partner for Risto. Couple that with Stamkos as UFA...wow, we just catapulted to a contender.
Buffalo deserves that...c'mon Gary do it, make it so.
- IonSabres

Matthews would be amazing! (Obviously)
Not a chance in hell I'd trade him if won that pick.
Fingers crossed, haha

If not us...
I really hope Arizona gets him.
Would be fitting since they got screwed last year.

Just no...
Boston, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa or Montreal
Anyone else I'm cool with

Typically, in any sport Im a fan of moving back which I am here as well pending not begin a top 3 pick. Two teams i like to move back with are Boston or Carolina. We could get a D pairing and maybe a later 1st.
Charra would be a interesting short term answer which could help is moving forward. Carolina have a few id be interested in as well.
- hubie

We could prob get Chara from them for a 3rd round pick at this point if he'd waive to come here
He got old pretty fast & at this point is only an average 2nd pair guy at best IMO
I'd rather just stick with Gorges than add that salary.
Plus, Boston is in big Cap trouble again...
I'm not doing anything to help them.
I'd take Krug off their hands though if they're desperate enough

Issue with trading number 1 is, what d would the team be willing to deal. IMO the guy it would take they would not move

also, have a feeling Stamkos knows where he wants to go so that team will deal for his rights prior to FA. I believe by doing so that team would be able to do the longer term unless im incorrect which happens on a daily basis.
- hubie

There's only a handful of defensemen in the NHL that a team wouldn't trade to us for Matthews

I don't really like him bc his defense needs so much work...
But Ottawa's owner said everyone is available, & I bet Karlsson would want out of given the chance

al and stripes
- homiedclown

I'm in

You are right, should have thought about that. However, isn't it also higher than 6% due to the fact that with each selection a team is eliminated from the drawing? If a team at the bottom like Edmonton or TO win #3, then they cannot win again and their 20% chances are removed??? This would mean their probability is spread among the remaining contestants. (3) 1/17 chances aren't like a 3/17 you are right...but it isn't either of them. It is (1) 1/17 then the fraction gets better depending on who wins no?
- RhinoFan

Since the odds essentially adjust after every pick, for us to win the third pick, we want teams with the highest odds to win one and two- that would leave us the best odds against the rest of the field for number three. I believe the odds are 20% and 13.5% for toronto and edmonton, that would leave us a 6 in 66.5 chance of picking 3. If two teams from behind us win, it could be 6 in 97. Its been a long time since statistics, but i think this makes sense. And of course any team that finished behind us that wins a lottery spot would drop us down in the draft order.

Issue with trading number 1 is, what d would the team be willing to deal. IMO the guy it would take they would not move

also, have a feeling Stamkos knows where he wants to go so that team will deal for his rights prior to FA. I believe by doing so that team would be able to do the longer term unless im incorrect which happens on a daily basis.
- hubie

You're incorrect which means you're correct...


The only team that can offer him the 8 year deal is Tampa

I don't think you can look at it the way it is described to yield a 18% chance of a top 3. Each lottery is independent of each other, so each chance is still only 6% roughly; you can't add them together.
- IonSabres

That's not actually true if you're figuring out the probability we get a top3 pick

To stick with you're coin flip analogy...


"Working out probabilies by counting
Once you have listed all possible outcomes, then you can work out the probabilities quite easily. Say that you are going to toss three coins, and you want to work out the probability of only one head (and so two tails). The possible outcomes are:

TTT, TTH, THT, THH, HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH

All these outcomes are different, and they are all equally likely. There are 8 of them. There are 3 tosses with only one head:

TTH, THT, HTT

So the probability is 3/8. You can convert this into a decimal 0.375 or a percentage 37.5%, which you can round to 38% if you wish. Or you can describe it as a three in eight chance. All these mean the same."


Now do that saying u only need "heads" to come up once...
Out of all those scenarios,
Only 1 of the 11 have all "tails" come up
Therefor the PROBABILITY of u getting 1 "heads" in 3 tosses is actually MUCH higher than 50%

The Probability would actually be 91%
Even though the odds for each individual toss are the same at 50%

Same goes with us winning one of the lotto picks
Odds stay the same each time (actually they improve bc of the elimination of winning team from each pick), but the probability increases each time.

It sounds weird...
But if they pick who wins 3rd first, then 2nd & then the #1 pick...
Our probability of getting #1 is actually MUCH HIGHER than getting #3
(Although I'd guess they do it opposite, & just reveal who got 3rd first & so on)

Sorry for this...
I know math is weird & super confusing

You're incorrect which means you're correct...


The only team that can offer him the 8 year deal is Tampa
- Stripes77

but if you trade for his rights you could sign for 8 right?

but if you trade for his rights you could sign for 8 right?
- hubie

Negative

Negative
- Stripes77

hummmm, oh well

STAMKOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

STAMKOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- homiedclown

Stinks, Bum, 36 goals means nothing

STAMKOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- homiedclown

He's going to the promised land, the hockey heaven, the road paved with gold Toronto......... You didn't know?

I have been going pretty hard on the Garth pages. I know I'm in the slim slim minority, but I do enjoy some of his blogs. I am still suprised that what was said by homie was ban worthy and what others (including myself) have said is not.

I have been going pretty hard on the Garth pages. I know I'm in the slim slim minority, but I do enjoy some of his blogs. I am still suprised that what was said by homie was ban worthy and what others (including myself) have said is not.
- RhinoFan

he dose have an occasional good read, i never post regardless of quality. IMO he just rushes out too many blogs just for the sake of putting one out

Are u aware that CNBC & USA are showing a bunch of games too?
- jdfitz77

All of the extra NBC channels (CNBC, NBCSN) are cable channels out here. I literally have basic cable, my local stations and a million paid for TV advertising channels.
Though, the hockey gods blessed me today and bestowed the Hawks/Blues on me on regular NBC.
Of course, its like, 80 degrees and sunny outside!

he dose have an occasional good read, i never post regardless of quality. IMO he just rushes out too many blogs just for the sake of putting one out
- hubie

Doesn't hold a candle to MP, Sabres fans belong here. Garth is my personal reprieve from the boring world of rational/logical thinking.

Doesn't hold a candle to MP, Sabres fans belong here. Garth is my personal reprieve from the boring world of rational/logical thinking.
- RhinoFan

For the most part nobody on the site can match MP, most of the bloggers ive really liked over time are all gone. I used to love Brian and Yost's blogs very few juniors/draft blogs these days

Interesting, just read one about 3 players the Sabres should sign in free agency. They raised some of the obvious ones, but one I had not thought of was Lucic. I hate his guts, well hated. I don't hate anymore, just don't like his face...that smug look. Hard to say, but he might be a decent fit on our team.

Interesting, just read one about 3 players the Sabres should sign in free agency. They raised some of the obvious ones, but one I had not thought of was Lucic. I hate his guts, well hated. I don't hate anymore, just don't like his face...that smug look. Hard to say, but he might be a decent fit on our team.
- RhinoFan

I thought he wanted to resign, But I would like him here, another guy you hate till hes in your colors

Interesting, just read one about 3 players the Sabres should sign in free agency. They raised some of the obvious ones, but one I had not thought of was Lucic. I hate his guts, well hated. I don't hate anymore, just don't like his face...that smug look. Hard to say, but he might be a decent fit on our team.
- RhinoFan

I would be crushed. It would rattle me to the very bones of my fandom for the Sabres.

I would be crushed. It would rattle me to the very bones of my fandom for the Sabres.
- Der Kaiser

Not saying it wouldn't hurt a little...

Not saying it wouldn't hurt a little...
- RhinoFan

Put me in the playoffs and all will be forgotten

Interesting, just read one about 3 players the Sabres should sign in free agency. They raised some of the obvious ones, but one I had not thought of was Lucic. I hate his guts, well hated. I don't hate anymore, just don't like his face...that smug look. Hard to say, but he might be a decent fit on our team.
- RhinoFan

(frank).
That.