Go to a baseball game and see the outrageously stupid stats they put on the video board:

Hitting .315 on day games, in april, vs lefties, on the road, after the 6th inning
- hawkeytalkman

Your baseball analogy is a good one imho. Baseball is essentially a 1v1 game. It's a team sport sure, but it's always pitcher vs batter and then outfielder/infielder vs ball. Stats are a lot easier to accumulate because there aren't as many variables based on what others do. Sure there's an error or two per game but generally a good hitter can hit in the .300 range. Now imagine a hitter having someone charging at him and bumping/checking him while trying to hit the ball! That percentage falls probably down into the .100 range or basically the rate most NHLers score at. Now imagine a baseball player having someone purposely trying to intercept or block a pitch from the pitchers mound when said player is up to bat? Or having to be running and make contact with the ball when not in a batting stance? Well you get the idea. There are so many variables that come into play with hockey that a player has no control over that can effect his stats dramatically. Some players, the stats don't lie(see Glass, Tanner) but for most it's probably just a simple matter of usage and ice time given out(see Larsson, Johan Buffalo Sabers player).

Never change Tanner.
- sbroads24

I remember when I was young playing road hockey, just imagining having a strong 5v5 CF% while not making the playoffs.

Thats what Canadian kids dream of

Your baseball analogy is a good one imho. Baseball is essentially a 1v1 game. It's a team sport sure, but it's always pitcher vs batter and then outfielder/infielder vs ball. Stats are a lot easier to accumulate because there aren't as many variables based on what others do. Sure there's an error or two per game but generally a good hitter can hit in the .300 range. Now imagine a hitter having someone charging at him and bumping/checking him while trying to hit the ball! That percentage falls probably down into the .100 range or basically the rate most NHLers score at. Now imagine a baseball player having someone purposely trying to intercept or block a pitch from the pitchers mound when said player is up to bat? Or having to be running and make contact with the ball when not in a batting stance? Well you get the idea. There are so many variables that come into play with hockey that a player has no control over that can effect his stats dramatically. Some players, the stats don't lie(see Glass, Tanner) but for most it's probably just a simple matter of usage and ice time given out(see Larsson, Johan Buffalo Sabers player).
- mnhockeyguy

Johan Larsson, one of the better bottom 6 players 95% of people have never heard of

Johan Larsson, one of the better bottom 6 players 95% of people have never heard of
- sbroads24

And when he was given an expanded role, i.e. more ice time his scoring went up. Still wish the Wild had never traded him.

It's all luck for the first 77 games, anyway. A few bounces, and the Capitals and Coyotes could have switched places. Only the last 5 games really matter, when the players actually try.
- jmatchett383

This. Change it to the Tanner-Stanley Cup

And when he was given an expanded role, i.e. more ice time his scoring went up. Still wish the Wild had never traded him.
- mnhockeyguy

I have met him and he's a nice dude too. Wish he was a better skater, but still a very effective 3rd/4th liner

I remember when I was young playing road hockey, just imagining having a strong 5v5 CF% while not making the playoffs.

Thats what Canadian kids dream of
- DDM-Coga

You fall asleep not counting sheep, but hero charts.

You fall asleep not counting sheep, but hero charts.
- RafiDRW

You fall asleep not counting sheep, but hero charts.
- RafiDRW

championships are for chumps

"We really feel Auston Matthews will finally help bring a positive CF% to the city of Toronto"

"We really feel Auston Matthews will finally help bring a positive CF% to the city of Toronto"
- sbroads24

championships are for chumps
- DDM-Coga

They optimize those who wish to treat some people better than others.

It's all luck for the first 77 games, anyway. A few bounces, and the Capitals and Coyotes could have switched places. Only the last 5 games really matter, when the players actually try.
- jmatchett383

If this is really what you think it means when people state the FACT that skill doesn't outweigh luck until the sample size has reached aprox 78 games in the National Hockey League at full parity, then you should probably bust out the credit card and sign up to Devry.

Oh Jimmy, you know more than anyone else that people like to toss out 5v5 or all situation numbers to try and curve their argument. Its raw data, people can shape it and manipulate it if they want.

I did it in a very generic simplistic explanation but there are many number nerds out there that just do that.

Its ok to agree with someone one time.
- DDM-Coga

Using 5v5 numbers isn't to curve the argument, it's because 80% of the game is played that way and so how you do in a normal situation is more important.

oh dear, this must be embarrassing for you
- BestRapperAlive

Yeah nothing is worse than a typo. This is just a shocking revelation.

Just because you don't win a championship doesn't mean you weren't successful

Players, teams, and fans measure success by winning championships. So if you don't win championships, it does in fact mean that you were not successful.

Even Chayka the 'genius' surely measures success in championships; the analytics are tools to work towards that success.

You are the only person who believes success = more shot attempts than the other team.

Yeah nothing is worse than a typo. This is just a shocking revelation.
- James_Tanner

Hey I wouldn't bug you about it if you didn't claim to be such a brilliant writer.

OK but seriously.....STOP THE PRESSES

HAVE YOU SEEN THIS GUYS SISTER?!?!?!?!

Using 5v5 numbers isn't to curve the argument, it's because 80% of the game is played that way and so how you do in a normal situation is more important.
- James_Tanner

You are missing the point, there are guys who do try to make a point and will post all situations vs 5v5 to make that.....Mirtle is one of the biggest culprits of that.

And depending on his argument it does change the narrative bc there are times that there is a drastic difference in the 2.

So yes you can manipulate the data to present the argument that you want to make.

Now the Coyotes just need to wait for the NHL to start using Expected Goals, instead of Actual Goals to decide games!

When did he get hired? Didn't the team end up in virtually the same place the last 2 seasons? What are these great decisions made that resulted in a jump from 2nd last to 6th last?

As a Sabres fan, I'm not knocking the team in any way, just not sure what growth has been shown in such a short time to come to your conclusion.
- stashu

That is a fair critique. I don't know for sure, but the rumor is his advice was ignored. Having hired analytics folks, generally you look to see if they accurately predicted the future. So maybe he submitted projections last fall that came true which impressed ownership (for example: "Calgary will tank, ghostisbehere is underrated, Michaelmas will regress, hagelin will struggle in Anaheim") ... Then in his interview he can say "look what I predicted...let me use this predictive model to run the whole org and you'll get good results." Just an example of what those interviews look like

That is a fair critique. I don't know for sure, but the rumor is his advice was ignored. Having hired analytics folks, generally you look to see if they accurately predicted the future. So maybe he submitted projections last fall that came true which impressed ownership (for example: "Calgary will tank, ghostisbehere is underrated, Michaelmas will regress, hagelin will struggle in Anaheim") ... Then in his interview he can say "look what I predicted...let me use this predictive model to run the whole org and you'll get good results." Just an example of what those interviews look like
- Dahlmanyotes

It's really smart of him to predict the Flames would have the WORST goaltending in league by far....despite the fact that the Flames were bringing back the exact same tandem. What a genius!!!!!! OMFGGGGGGG

- The-O-G

dibbs

dibbs
- DDM-Coga

Nah nah nah......beat it sandwich boy!!!

Apparently she works for Stathletes or whatever....hopefully James has a lot of kleenex in his house