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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Preseason Schedule, Injury Updates, Worlds, Alumni Golf
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opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

May 18 @ 2:29 PM ET
They were never really a threat to score in that series and their 5 goals in 6 games proved. I don't see how a team makes a jump from that performance to contenders in two seasons just adding rookies.
- psuhockey


Giroux hurt.
Voracek recovering from a injury
Couturier goes down in game 1 making their limited offensive depth even weaker.
Ghost hurt..


Not hard to explain why they struggled to score this series.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 18 @ 2:32 PM ET
Missing MDZ as well. He didn't score a lot this season, but his absence forced Streit into a shutdown role.

Yeah, he's gonna have to increase his overall shot volume to get to 30+ goals. If he can get 200-250 shots per season, he might be worth the $5M+ per that people are talking about. If not... I dunno.
- Tomahawk


30+ goals and 30+ assists is worth more than $5m in the modern NHL.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 18 @ 2:33 PM ET
Come on, folks -- if even I believe Schenn played well enough to earn an extension, even if you take him to arbitration to get it, we probably shouldn't be looking to trade the guy

He played well last season, far more often than not. His invisible stretches were less and he showed up in games where they needed him

I agree: He's not a a player you build around. But he's proven that he can get you 50-60 points in a support role, and if he's consistent -- which he was for the vast majority of last season -- then, as I said, even I can't complain about him anymore
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 18 @ 2:34 PM ET
#4 for Simmonds is a hard offer to turn down, but I don't know that the Oilers would do it or that Simmonds would waive his NTC.

Boston got a great deal for one year of Lucic so I don't see the hurry to move Simmer.

- Feanor



I This year I wouldn't mind trying to use the #18 to get an RFA instead of drafting. There just really aren't any players I crave after the top 3.

I would almost prefer to use #18 and try to get Nichushkin or maybe even Rickard Rackell.

With Anaheim seeming to need to create some space and sign guys like Rackel, Vatenen and Lindholm could you maybe use #18 and say Laughton and try to get Fowler?

I just think in a seemingly weaker draft maybe 18 would be better used in other ways then just drafting a player that might be a big guess at 18 in this draft.

AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 18 @ 2:34 PM ET
Giroux hurt.
Voracek recovering from a injury
Couturier goes down in game 1 making their limited offensive depth even weaker.
Ghost hurt..


Not hard to explain why they struggled to score this series.

- opeth_pa


Exactly -- some years you are healthy, some you aren't
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 18 @ 2:36 PM ET
I believe his shot is underrated, but I also don't believe he can sustain 14-15% shooting. Hard to say whether this past year was a product of a step forward or a bit of riding elevated %'s.
- Tomahawk


Some of both, though I do think the shooting percentage can stay relatively high because he does score his fair share of dirty goals when he's on his game
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 18 @ 2:36 PM ET
I don't think the window opens in 2017-2018 because I don't believe prospects develop linearly. There is something called a sophomore slump for a reason and defensemen take even longer. I am not even sure that this team makes the playoffs next season because Gostisbehere could take a step back. And rookie additions are a crap shoot: for every contributor there is a Laughton who struggles. And I expect many rookies to be on 2017's team.

Maybe I have a pessimetic view of how close this team is. Yes it was a success to get into the playoffs but they were thoroughly outplayed IMO by a caps team half assing it and would have been swept if not for miraculous goaltending by Neuvirth. They were never really a threat to score in that series and their 5 goals in 6 games proved. I don't see how a team makes a jump from that performance to contenders in two seasons just adding rookies.

- psuhockey


So you don't think a healthy Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, MDZ and Couts would have helped against the Caps?
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 18 @ 2:38 PM ET
So you don't think a healthy Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, MDZ and Couts would have helped against the Caps?
- PhillySportsGuy


They wouldve only taken ice time away from VDV
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

May 18 @ 2:39 PM ET
So you don't think a healthy Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, MDZ and Couts would have helped against the Caps?
- PhillySportsGuy


Nah. They just would've gotten injured again facing them.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 18 @ 2:42 PM ET
So you don't think a healthy Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, MDZ and Couts would have helped against the Caps?
- PhillySportsGuy


MDZ would've helped a ton, I know that much
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 2:46 PM ET
So perhaps this has been discussed (maybe even a few dozen times), but I haven't been around. So here it is -

Schenn is an RFA. Duh.
I think we'd all like to have him for 4.5, but that's a pipe dream. Today's value means someone will pay him between 5-6.

So let's look at RFA compensation. The line is roughly at 5.63(ish). Under gets a 1 and a 3. Over gets a 1, 2, and 3. The next bracket starts around 7.5, so that's out of the picture.

Offers are therefore going to be close to that 5.63 area. I doubt anyone wants to give us the three picks it would take with a 5.7 cap hit

So...

-What do you think he will command (and what are you comfortable with, too. Mostly his expected value, though)

-Would you pay 5.7 to keep him? Or let him walk for 3 picks?

-Would you let him walk in exchange for a 1 and 3 if someone hits just below the line?

funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

May 18 @ 2:46 PM ET
So you don't think a healthy Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, MDZ and Couts would have helped against the Caps?
- PhillySportsGuy



YEAH WHAT'S MATT READ'S EXCUSE
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

May 18 @ 2:46 PM ET
Exactly -- some years you are healthy, some you aren't
- AllInForFlyers



Yup and like some other posters have said in similar responses I forgot about MDZ and didn't even include him in my list of obvious and logical reasons why they didnt score this series.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 2:47 PM ET
Obviously it depends who makes the offer. The Jets 1 and 3 next year is probably going to be more tasty than the Blackhawks
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 2:49 PM ET
YEAH WHAT'S MATT READ'S EXCUSE
- funmaster18

He peaked quickly, came out of nowhere, surprised us, never had a huge upside to begin with, and was overvalued by fans and organization

I think that's his excuse.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 18 @ 2:52 PM ET
So perhaps this has been discussed (maybe even a few dozen times), but I haven't been around. So here it is -

Schenn is an RFA. Duh.
I think we'd all like to have him for 4.5, but that's a pipe dream. Today's value means someone will pay him between 5-6.

So let's look at RFA compensation. The line is roughly at 5.63(ish). Under gets a 1 and a 3. Over gets a 1, 2, and 3. The next bracket starts around 7.5, so that's out of the picture.

Offers are therefore going to be close to that 5.63 area. I doubt anyone wants to give us the three picks it would take with a 5.7 cap hit

So...

-What do you think he will command (and what are you comfortable with, too. Mostly his expected value, though)

-Would you pay 5.7 to keep him? Or let him walk for 3 picks?

-Would you let him walk in exchange for a 1 and 3 if someone hits just below the line?

- Hesh_


Your math is fancy but the values are completely wrong
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 2:56 PM ET
Your math is fancy but the values are completely wrong
- YuenglingJagr

That's nothing new. Fix it and respond, I'm lazy.
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

May 18 @ 2:57 PM ET
So you don't think a healthy Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, MDZ and Couts would have helped against the Caps?
- PhillySportsGuy

They would have helped but even if they got past the capitals which there isn't a guarantee even with them all healthy, they would have been smoked by the Penguins like they were all season.

Look at a team like Tampa who were/still are missing their 2nd best defenseman and their top forward and made it to the conference finals with ease. That's my idea of a Stanley Cup contender: superstar defenseman, elite talent with depth thru the lineup. The kind of depth that can still make for a competitive effort against the better teams even with some pieces missing. The Flyers aren't that good yet and won't be for a couple of seasons. Why not plan for that day?
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 2:57 PM ET
You can still tell me what you think he's worth to the Flyers, as well as other teams
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 18 @ 2:58 PM ET
That's nothing new. Fix it and respond, I'm lazy.
- Hesh_


me too...lets just say no one is paying him 5.7 million and it appears you are forgetting about restricted free agency years. the cap hit will depend on the contract length
iskatefast
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 22 Acacia Avenue, DE
Joined: 08.22.2008

May 18 @ 2:58 PM ET
Schenn was the top forward for the Flyers down the stretch of the season getting into the playoffs and he was the best forward for the Flyers in the playoffs. I don't even think about moving him.
- Pixote Andolini


and that right there is why this team is not ready for prime time..
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 18 @ 3:05 PM ET
Your math is fancy but the values are completely wrong
- YuenglingJagr


Are they? Friedman supplied this year's compensation chart today. So I think a team could offer sheet Schenn at five years, $5.63m AAV, and only have to give up a 2017 1st and 3rd. But I don't know what team will have the cap space, picks and desire to do that.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...chart-bold-new-direction/

Less than $1,239,226 Nothing
Over $1,239,226 to $1,877,615 Third-round pick
Over $1,877,615 to $3,755,233 Second-round pick
Over $3,755,233 to $5,632,847 First and third-round picks
Over $5,632,847 to $7,510,464 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,510,464 to $9,388,080 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9,388,080 Four first-round picks
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 18 @ 3:11 PM ET
Are they? Friedman supplied this year's compensation chart today. So I think a team could offer sheet Schenn at five years, $5.63m AAV, and only have to give up a 2017 1st and 3rd. But I don't know what team will have the cap space, picks and desire to do that.


- Feanor


Bolded is the value I was referring to
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 3:15 PM ET
and that right there is why this team is not ready for prime time..
- iskatefast


I agree, but to be fair, he was actually one of the better producing wings in the league since the new year.

Just in time for payday.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

May 18 @ 3:17 PM ET
Are they? Friedman supplied this year's compensation chart today. So I think a team could offer sheet Schenn at five years, $5.63m AAV, and only have to give up a 2017 1st and 3rd. But I don't know what team will have the cap space, picks and desire to do that.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...chart-bold-new-direction/

Less than $1,239,226 Nothing
Over $1,239,226 to $1,877,615 Third-round pick
Over $1,877,615 to $3,755,233 Second-round pick
Over $3,755,233 to $5,632,847 First and third-round picks
Over $5,632,847 to $7,510,464 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,510,464 to $9,388,080 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9,388,080 Four first-round picks

- Feanor


Thank you. This is to which I was referring.

As I said, I'm feeling lazy and didn't want to do the work myself.
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