How so Al, in setting lines? Vegas follows the offshore lines now?......So back in the day Vegas would tweak their lines on the knowledge of the wise guys and how they bet before the line was available to the public?

There is soooo much bet on football lines don't move a whole lot, 1 or 2 points at most but I've seen hoops lines move a good bit.

Remember Jimmy The Greek picking winners with the line on Sunday mornings on channel 2 in the 70's? Life was so simple for the majority of Americans.
- Mr Ricochet

The only thing out here I've heard people really effecting the lines/based on bets - is when certain players lay big money on a game one way or the other. But those pro betters really place their bets either early on if they see a line they love or last minute where there isn't enough time to move the line

"Greed is good", per Mr. Gekko.....one exception: NHL players on well established teams looking to win again. Hard truth. Often difficult to accept. Front offices just as culpable as the players. Going into this season only two teams (some may argue only one) fit that description: LA Kings, Chicago Blackhawks

One need only look at the percent of the cap by the top two CHI players, and ask how does the remaining roster get built. Not for an average team, or to only put fannies in the seats, or even a really good team. But for a team to have a great chance to win the Stanley Cup. Sort of ratcheded up not only expectation, but challenge.

19/88 previous cap hit as percentage of cap: 18%, other 21: 82%
19/88 current cap hit as percentage of cap: 29%, other 21: 71%

No one here wants to revert to the dollar Bill / Bob Pulford years: Good teams, often exciting, but rarely a real chance at the chalice.
- blackhawk24

I still believe that the NHLPA was pushing hard for them to get as much possible .And that they could have gotten more on the open market ,so in all reality they did give the HAWKS a home town discount

JJ, great work! Thanks for keeping us up to date on the happenings throughout the summer.

As far as this board goes, who would we deem untouchable and exempt from the significant core piece that could be on the move? I know we like to steer away from the term untouchable because the greatest player in the history of the sport was once traded. But the only four I can think of are 19, 88,2, 4

I was against buying out bickell because of the 1.5 mil in dead cap space next year and all the free agents the hawks having coming up. But the one thing it does do is It takes some of the desperation out of deals. IE the SAAD and SHARP and LEDDY deals were all done out of desperation. I would be a fan of Buying out bickell if we make another deal this year to save us some cap space in 17/18. No idea who that could be but it sounds like the market for players is not very good with Cap not going up much and the EXP draft.
- kmw4631

Bullseye. I'm not a Stan supporter or a Stan hater as I stay very level headed in evaluating his moves. But to me not buying out Bickell early last year (combined with not trading Sharp at the draft) really F'd up his leverage in dealing with the Saad situation. Perhaps teams aren't as willing to proceed with the offer-sheet on Saad knowing the Hawks would have had an addtional $3M (from the Bickell buyout) and whatever other cap space would have gotten dealing Sharp at the draft because teams would know the Hawks would have matched any offer to Saad on June 30th. Would have hurt Saad's leverage a little bit as well. Instead, neither Bickell or Sharp were off the books on June 30th, the Hawks were backed into a corner on Saad, and then backed into a corner with Sharp later on too.

Hopefully Stan is a little more proactive this offseason.

The only thing out here I've heard people really effecting the lines/based on bets - is when certain players lay big money on a game one way or the other. But those pro betters really place their bets either early on if they see a line they love or last minute where there isn't enough time to move the line
- PatShart

Indeed. The guy who makes his money gambling is looking for value whether it be in the beginning of the week or 5 minutes before kickoff or post time, and they go heavy enough to move a line/odds (horse racing).

I remember as a kid reading Jimmy The Greek's book, he was a professional horse player, made his living that way. He always spoke of value, watching 100 races before he bet on one. Find value not volume and go heavy, those guys effect odds (wise guy money).

I was against buying out bickell because of the 1.5 mil in dead cap space next year and all the free agents the hawks having coming up. But the one thing it does do is It takes some of the desperation out of deals. IE the SAAD and SHARP and LEDDY deals were all done out of desperation. I would be a fan of Buying out bickell if we make another deal this year to save us some cap space in 17/18. No idea who that could be but it sounds like the market for players is not very good with Cap not going up much and the EXP draft.
- kmw4631

That Leddy trade ... Very last minute. Should have moved him at the draft too, same with Sharp. The Saad trade is the only one that really "panned out" so far. The Hawks are in a tight corner and it's not worth shipping off Teuvo just to unload the Bickell. Buyout seems like the least evil so far.

JJ, great work! Thanks for keeping us up to date on the happenings throughout the summer.

As far as this board goes, who would we deem untouchable and exempt from the significant core piece that could be on the move? I know we like to steer away from the term untouchable because the greatest player in the history of the sport was once traded. But the only four I can think of are 19, 88,2, 4
- nickmo2699

CHI, Boston, LA, PITT, STL, NYR, PHI all have varying degrees of cap problems. Teams are catching up to the Hawks in that regard as the cap stagnates. Add the expansion draft is coming and teams are jockying to protect younger players by moving NMC/no trade guys and IMO you might see some shockers.

Nothing will surprise me this offseason as the strangles the life out of rosters.

Sounds like the right field bleachers at Cubs Park back in the 50s and 60s.
- StLBravesFan

I didn't grow up in Chicago but bought my first house there in my early 20's. Spent the next 25 years drinking and running with guys who grew up there, guys who ran their dad's bets to the drugstore/tavern as kids in the 50's/60's.....

No lie, these guys would bet which bird would fly off the line first and not for quarters. That's where I learned that, in Chicago.

Top source just checked in, as in "my" top source.

Lots of names in play, Bickell could get bought out (most likely), but it all depends where the cap settles.

Malkin is NOT a possibility.
- John Jaeckel

JJ, you have alluded to management seeing the need for "fundamental changes" to the "core" this offseason to be competitive for the Cup. Are the things your source is relaying indicative of this need for change, or will the Blackhawks brass move at the pace of an iceberg and miss a window to change the makeup of this roster?

http://mynhltraderumors.c...ut-candidates/2016/06/14/

It would be great if we could trade Bickell for either Cowen or Ference. I would take back any contract they do not want that is under the AHL limit of $950K and give up some type of asset.

This x 1000. You can't bet Ariata straight up at a -300, in my day it was Seaver/Carlton/Guidry/, but you lose that heavy juice if you parley him with 5 different teams in 5 different bets.... Find your favorite pitcher that day, hopefully a -130ish, and tie him to 3-4-5 different single bets and if the favorite hits you'll make some dough hat day.

Working the midnight shift I'd spend a good hour or two with The National (the sporting mans bible) and some Strohs and scour the lines and data after work...... Good old days.
- Mr Ricochet

Those were the GREAT old days!

CHI, Boston, LA, PITT, STL, NYR, PHI all have varying degrees of cap problems. Teams are catching up to the Hawks in that regard as the cap stagnates. Add the expansion draft is coming and teams are jockying to protect younger players by moving NMC/no trade guys and IMO you might see some shockers.

Nothing will surprise me this offseason as the strangles the life out of rosters.
- Mr Ricochet

More than those...Dallas comes to mind first.

I still believe that the NHLPA was pushing hard for them to get as much possible .And that they could have gotten more on the open market ,so in all reality they did give the HAWKS a home town discount
- oldduffman

YES -- The NHLPA and the fact that 19 - 88 have the same agent-- Pat Brisson pretty much sealed the fate on their deals being nearly top dollar-- The unique part is that the Hawks had 2 elite players to sign at the same time-- so this might have resulted in a slight discount-- and yes I believe they would have gotten more outside of Chicago-- so I guess thats a discount--

IF the league grows at anticipated levels-- both deal swill be surpassed by the second contracts for players like McDavid-- if he is indeed the generational talent as touted--

What is the problem with raising the cap 5million if it is an internal governing parameter? Raise the darn cap and all ships will rise. Is that too simplistic?

http://mynhltraderumors.com/nhl-rumors-top-buyout-candidates/2016/06/14/

It would be great if we could trade Bickell for either Cowen or Ference. I would take back any contract they do not want that is under the AHL limit of $950K and give up some type of asset.
- kmw4631

I wouldn't take Ference. He is done and has stated he is ready to retire. I mean, sure you save a little bit of extra cap space, but a buyout would be better than getting a washed up D man that couldn't crack one of the weakest D core in the NHL in Edmonton. Before his season ending surgery he was a healthy scratch very often.

Does anyone have any idea how expansion will affect the salary cap? Will the cap go up due to more money in the league (I'm assuming an expansion team will have to pay a price to enter the NHL). Or just the opposite, the league will need to support a team in some financial manner?

Does anyone have any idea how expansion will affect the salary cap? Will the cap go up due to more money in the league (I'm assuming an expansion team will have to pay a price to enter the NHL). Or just the opposite, the league will need to support a team in some financial manner?
- onehundredlevel

The fee's go straight to the owners with zero impact on the cap.

http://mynhltraderumors.com/nhl-rumors-top-buyout-candidates/2016/06/14/

It would be great if we could trade Bickell for either Cowen or Ference. I would take back any contract they do not want that is under the AHL limit of $950K and give up some type of asset.
- kmw4631

Cowen would be ideal. The Leafs could buy out Bickell and the Hawks buy out Cowen. That's a net of $1.6M difference for the Hawks' cap this year, and $750K for the Hawks' cap next year. The question is, what kind of asset would it cost the Hawks to make this deal? Draft pick? Prospect like Hartman/McNeill? (total speculation on my part there, but obviously the Hawks would have to give the Leafs something in that deal).

On the day the Blackhawks Cap subtracted Sharp I stated my reservations about Daley's game in his own end.
So Steve and company you can place me on the side of the basket with the sour grapes, but I have been consistent.

Doncha' wish, though, there was a real insider on this blog, not pretenders, who could tell you why Daley went out the room?

We can surmise a decision was made that it was a last year on a contract they wanted no part of, or that it was salary savings to make room for the playoff trade acquisitions...

I don't think there is a player to be named later or additional 2nd rounder attached to the Penquin's Cup win.
But, is there s o m e t h i n g ?
- wiz1901

Wiz I don't disagree about knowing exactly why. It's all speculation. But look back at Campbell and bowmans dislike of his game. Look at leddy and being chained to the pine late in games during cup runs.

Educated guess just has to be his skill set wasn't a match and he realized it early that he couldn't do what he does best and asked out. Good for him for being part of a winner.

And if that was the case, his skill set, then the real question is why would bowman acquire him knowing that player twice before didn't work in the hawks system?

Cowen would be ideal. The Leafs could buy out Bickell and the Hawks buy out Cowen. That's a net of $1.6M difference for the Hawks' cap this year, and $750K for the Hawks' cap next year. The question is, what kind of asset would it cost the Hawks to make this deal? Draft pick? Prospect like Hartman/McNeill? (total speculation on my part there, but obviously the Hawks would have to give the Leafs something in that deal).
- Hawksfan37

Bickell, 2016 5th and Ross for Cowan.

What is the problem with raising the cap 5million if it is an internal governing parameter? Raise the darn cap and all ships will rise. Is that too simplistic?
- RedFeather

Because you have broom feeders already struggling to get to cap floor while not taking that amount of cap money in regards to salary. It's a small market world and its not changing. Easing it by 5 million raises floor as well.

Union would love it.

Ference could be put on LTIR, I would love for bickell to declare that his vertigo is back and has chronic knee pain and LTIR him this year. The benefit for him is he gets a year to rehab his knee's and try and get a contract in a year. He is only going to get 3 mil instead of 4.5 mil he is bought out and there is no way he is getting a 1 year 1.5 mil contract this off season. he would probably get a tryout contract at best.

The fee's go straight to the owners with zero impact on the cap.
- Blackwater13

Thank you. And with the info trickling out that Las Vegas will be the 31st franchise, and some guidelines set up for protection of players....who is the most likely Hawk player that we will lose in the expansion draft? I am hearing that only one player maximum can be taken from each team. Any thoughts?

Thank you. And with the info trickling out that Las Vegas will be the 31st franchise, and some guidelines set up for protection of players....who is the most likely Hawk player that we will lose in the expansion draft? I am hearing that only one player maximum can be taken from each team. Any thoughts?
- onehundredlevel

More importantly: Did you hear the rumor that JJ wants to be the LV blogger? Say it aint so JJ!

Kidding of course. Or am I?

Because you have broom feeders already struggling to get to cap floor while not taking that amount of cap money in regards to salary. It's a small market world and its not changing. Easing it by 5 million raises floor as well.

Union would love it.
- SteveRain

Escrow, guys - a higher cap means a higher escrow - higher giveback by players with contracts - it's a conflicted NHLPA - players with contracts vs. players without