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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 5
Author Message
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 12:16 PM ET
I can see a team taking Sheary over Pouliot if DP doesn't show much this season and Sheary improves. If the draft was tomorrow and their choices were Sheary and DP, it might be 60/40 in DP's favor. That's fairly close.
- Victoro311



You hate pouliot though. But the higher ceiling of pouliot makes it a no-brainer. They can go out and sign 3rd liners easily. They can't go out and pick up top 4 potential dmen.

Pouliot isn't on bust watch. He's on bust watch for an 8th pick. But he's pretty much on schedule for where everyone else thought he should be picked. Plus good analytics.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 10 @ 12:16 PM ET
If they have more than two years of pro experience yes. So if a player was coming off their third year of ELC, yes they'd need to be protected.
- Victoro311


got it.....was wondering why he was adding guys like Lazar, Ghost, McDavid, etc to the list.....guess that's why.

thanks
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Aug 10 @ 12:16 PM ET
I agree with your choosings for Philadelphia, Ryan
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 10 @ 12:23 PM ET
I agree with your choosings for Philadelphia, Ryan
- Streit2ThePoint


As the contracts stand now the only thing that might have changed was Raffl protected and one of Laughton or Cousins left off. Without any resignings Philly is in great shape going into the expansion draft, Really the only resigning I see is DelZotto and that makes him protected and Mandog left out for the pickings.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Aug 10 @ 12:31 PM ET
I think I was trying to tell all you how Gudas was a good player at the trade deadline. Much rather have him than Shultz, unless they actually let Shultz run the powerplay but that wont happen.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 10 @ 12:31 PM ET
Maybe I am a bit weird in the mindset that if Pouliot suddenly became what he is supposed to be, I'd go 4F 4D and Expose Horny in an INSTANT. He'd had just 1 year left on his deal, and I'd just have to live with it.

In that Scenario, it'd be

Sid, Geno, Kessel, Hags
Letang, Maatta, Dumo, Pouliot
Flower/Murray (if Flower dealt).


Having a stud top 4 D locked up is better than 1 more year of a top 6 winger. Sorry Horny, but if DP shows up this year, you're getting exposed in my book. But if we cannot protect Murray, then it doesn't matter LOL.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 10 @ 12:31 PM ET
You hate pouliot though. But the higher ceiling of pouliot makes it a no-brainer. They can go out and sign 3rd liners easily. They can't go out and pick up top 4 potential dmen.

Pouliot isn't on bust watch. He's on bust watch for an 8th pick. But he's pretty much on schedule for where everyone else thought he should be picked. Plus good analytics.

- sditulli

I don't hate Pouliot. I hate people overrating him and I don't want to just give him a spot like the people who wanted to bench Lovejoy for him down the stretch when it was clear Lovejoy gave us a better chance to win. Right now Pouliot is tracking as a bottom pairing offensive dynamo and not much else. He's still young and could still pull it all together but I'm so sick of hearing about his potential. He's at the age when he needs to start showing.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 10 @ 12:31 PM ET
Unless AMac plays like 50 games this season.
- jmatchett383


AMAC is unprotected with or without making the requirement! PLEASE VEGAS TAKE THAT CONTRACT!
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 10 @ 12:34 PM ET
Maybe I am a bit weird in the mindset that if Pouliot suddenly became what he is supposed to be, I'd go 4F 4D and Expose Horny in an INSTANT. He'd had just 1 year left on his deal, and I'd just have to live with it.

In that Scenario, it'd be

Sid, Geno, Kessel, Hags
Letang, Maatta, Dumo, Pouliot
Flower/Murray (if Flower dealt).


Having a stud top 4 D locked up is better than 1 more year of a top 6 winger. Sorry Horny, but if DP shows up this year, you're getting exposed in my book. But if we cannot protect Murray, then it doesn't matter LOL.

- Guile


This is a sound assessment. DP becomes a top 4 guy next ear, I'd do exactly what you say. I've said all along one year of Hornqvist isn't really worth protectin as opposed to some other players, but the big hick up would be that Rutherford would actually have to be willing to expose Hornqvist, which I don't see happening.
jaydogg1974
Joined: 06.18.2012

Aug 10 @ 12:35 PM ET
I know finding the creative options wasn't the plan of the exercise but as I look over what is laid out in the blog I really see some creative ways that GMJR can smash the expansion draft and come out smelling like a rose if done properly. Obviously this is all speculation but if I were in GMJR's shoes I would call up McPhee and basically say "There isn't much top 6 talent available in the draft, how about I do you a favor and give you that top 6 player by exposing Hornqvist and you do me the favor of taking him and finding your goalie somewhere else". There will be several good goalie options available in the draft so LV will still have a solid player in net and now will have a top 6 winger that is in short supply in the expansion draft.

This then allows the Pens the option of going the 4F-4D route(even though it isn't necessary knowing Hornqvist is the pick) and it allows them to retain both golatenders. At some point 1 of the goalies will need to be moved for financial reason but now GMJR will be working from a better position because the risk of losing 1 for nothing will be eliminated.
jaydogg1974
Joined: 06.18.2012

Aug 10 @ 12:37 PM ET
Maybe I am a bit weird in the mindset that if Pouliot suddenly became what he is supposed to be, I'd go 4F 4D and Expose Horny in an INSTANT. He'd had just 1 year left on his deal, and I'd just have to live with it.

In that Scenario, it'd be

Sid, Geno, Kessel, Hags
Letang, Maatta, Dumo, Pouliot
Flower/Murray (if Flower dealt).


Having a stud top 4 D locked up is better than 1 more year of a top 6 winger. Sorry Horny, but if DP shows up this year, you're getting exposed in my book. But if we cannot protect Murray, then it doesn't matter LOL.

- Guile


If Pouliot blossoms and becomes the player he was projected to be this is exactly what I would do as well but until Pouliot shows at least a glimpse of being that player I'm not holding my breath.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 10 @ 12:38 PM ET
This is a sound assessment. DP becomes a top 4 guy next ear, I'd do exactly what you say. I've said all along one year of Hornqvist isn't really worth protectin as opposed to some other players, but the big hick up would be that Rutherford would actually have to be willing to expose Hornqvist, which I don't see happening.
- Victoro311



Top 4 D > top 6 Winger. Horny isn't really a traditional 1st line winger, or I'd put him over Pouliot.

Top pairing D >= 1st line wingers (can really vary on player vs player on each team).
2nd pairing D > 2nd line winger most of the time. And Horny is a 2nd line winger type overall. Only Kessel is our true 1st line winger... and ironically, hes not on the first two lines
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 10 @ 12:39 PM ET
If Pouliot blossoms and becomes the player he was projected to be this is exactly what I would do as well but until Pouliot shows at least a glimpse of being that player I'm not holding my breath.
- jaydogg1974



Honestly, I don't see DP even getting the shot to show it this season. Daley is back, Schultz returned.... the (frank) is DP even going to play at? I have zero issues with Schultz getting a chance to take DP's spot... but we now have a dieing asset that could be a top 4 Dman if he got a chance.
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

Aug 10 @ 12:41 PM ET
With Philly, doesn't the expansion draft go across an organization's farm team as well? I think it does, so they would have to claim Morin not Manning. And Hagg becomes exposed.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 10 @ 12:47 PM ET
With Philly, doesn't the expansion draft go across an organization's farm team as well? I think it does, so they would have to claim Morin not Manning. And Hagg becomes exposed.
- Devils9503


Hagg is protected due to his first year not counting since he was an underage Euro.

Morin is only going into his second year as a pro.

Per General Fanager:
Assuming the methodology used for calculating professional experience as it relates to free agency (CBA Section 10.2) applies for expansion as well:
A Player aged 18 or 19 earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more NHL games in a given NHL season
A player aged 20 or older (based on age on December 31 of calendar year in which the season starts) earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more Professional Games under an SPC in a given League Year.
Note that while the 18/19 age threshold refers to NHL games, the 20+ age threshold refers to Professional Games. "Professional Games" includes the following: any NHL Games played, all minor league regular season and playoff games and any other professional games played, including but not limited to, games played in any European league or any other league outside North America, by a Player pursuant to his SPC.

Professional seasons are expected to only count while a player is under an NHL SPC. A player like Artemi Panarin for instance, who played several "professional seasons" in the KHL prior to signing with the Chicago Blackhawks for the 2015-16 season, is expected to still be exempt from the Expansion Draft. This is because his seasons in the KHL were played before he signed an NHL SPC, so his first "professional season" for purposes of expansion is considered the 2015-16 season.

A professional season may still count for a player in a season where his contract slides. This is because the slide rule calculates age based on the player's age on September 15. So a player who turns 20 between September 16 and December 31 could have his contract slide because he does not play 10+ NHL games. However, if that player plays 1+ professional game in that season, for expansion purposes his age is considered to be 20 and the season counts as a professional season. As a result of this distinction, the following players previously believed to be expansion exempt will need to be protected or otherwise will be eligible to be drafted by Las Vegas:
William Carrier (BUF)
Emile Poirier (CGY)
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Ryan Hartman (CHI)
Anthony Mantha (DET)
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby (NSH)
Ryan Pulock (NYI)
Kerby Rychel (TOR)

Please visit the Protected Players tab for a full list of players who are likely to be exempt under these guidelines.




It's the next expansion draft that kills Philly's D prospect pool.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 12:48 PM ET
I know finding the creative options wasn't the plan of the exercise but as I look over what is laid out in the blog I really see some creative ways that GMJR can smash the expansion draft and come out smelling like a rose if done properly. Obviously this is all speculation but if I were in GMJR's shoes I would call up McPhee and basically say "There isn't much top 6 talent available in the draft, how about I do you a favor and give you that top 6 player by exposing Hornqvist and you do me the favor of taking him and finding your goalie somewhere else". There will be several good goalie options available in the draft so LV will still have a solid player in net and now will have a top 6 winger that is in short supply in the expansion draft.

This then allows the Pens the option of going the 4F-4D route(even though it isn't necessary knowing Hornqvist is the pick) and it allows them to retain both golatenders. At some point 1 of the goalies will need to be moved for financial reason but now GMJR will be working from a better position because the risk of losing 1 for nothing will be eliminated.

- jaydogg1974



I think that is too risky. I think more likely we make a bunch of trades pre-expansion. Only way we don't do that is if we can't find a taker for fleury. Also unless murray blows next year he's going to be an offersheet candidate. Which menas we can't afford fleury/murray.

Dump fleury anyway possible even with slight retention. Then flip hornqvist for a pick. I think 1 year of Horn could get us a 1st round pick (lucic got 2 1st round picks). I'd value a 1st round pick greater than losing rust, sheary, etc. Then we cut our losses to at worst a mid-6 guy. And free up a ton of cap.

If pouliot only shows 6d and isn't flashing potential then he won't be a trade chip and we just lose him to expansion. Mostly because he's a defenseman. There will be teams with 6 forwards and 3D worth protecting who hornqvist just means a not very important player gets unprotected.
martox
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Stockholm - "Nights when we don't have our A-game, we better have our A-commitment & A-effort."
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 10 @ 12:58 PM ET
https://twitter.com/CuteE...status/763410837088374784
love the black one at the end

also this thing is amazing
http://penguins-year-in-gifs.tumblr.com/
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 10 @ 1:02 PM ET
AMAC is unprotected with or without making the requirement! PLEASE VEGAS TAKE THAT CONTRACT!
- dragonoffrost


Well, yes, but if he doesn't play 50 games or so, then Manning is unprotected as well.
Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Aug 10 @ 1:03 PM ET
How is this LV team going to be anything but garbage out of the gate?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 10 @ 1:03 PM ET
With Philly, doesn't the expansion draft go across an organization's farm team as well? I think it does, so they would have to claim Morin not Manning. And Hagg becomes exposed.
- Devils9503


Morin would not be exposed as next year will be his second pro season. Hagg's first season was when he was under 19 (came from Sweden), so he was able to slide and is therefore exempt, meaning that next year will also be his second year.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 10 @ 1:05 PM ET
How is this LV team going to be anything but garbage out of the gate?
- Gerk


Because they play in the same league as Vancouver, Columbus, and Arizona.

Plus they'll have, at worst, a top-4 pick next year.
Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Aug 10 @ 1:06 PM ET
Because they play in the same league as Vancouver, Columbus, and Arizona.

Plus they'll have, at worst, a top-4 pick next year.

- jmatchett383


Should of got the 1st. One time Gary has a chance to help make it less likely teams will tank.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 10 @ 1:10 PM ET
How is this LV team going to be anything but garbage out of the gate?
- Gerk


Also they can sign free agents which might help them be better than what you are seeing as the unprotected lists.
Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Aug 10 @ 1:24 PM ET
Also they can sign free agents which might help them be better than what you are seeing as the unprotected lists.
- dragonoffrost


So it will be a challenge to see who overpays the most then? Vegas or Edmonton?
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 10 @ 1:32 PM ET
How is this LV team going to be anything but garbage out of the gate?
- Gerk


I don't think they'll be a cup contender, or even a playoff contender, by any stretch, but I think they could ice a pretty decent team. Just looking quickly through (plus assuming who might be available and unprotected from the remaining teams (I'm assuming that will be part 6)...and not taking into consideration any FAs they sign, I came up with

Forwards - Kruger, Grigorenko, Jenner, Brown, Granlund, Coyle, Plekanec, Wilson, Prince, Callahan

Defence - Methot, Schultz, Gunnarsson, Hamhuis, Brodin, Reinhardt

Goalies - Varlamov, Murray

(using the guys that Ryan thinks will be unprotected). that's not a terrible team, better than some teams in the league right now. certainly missing those 1 or 2 "marquee" guys, definitely no superstars, but a competitive team.
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