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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 5
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sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 3:51 PM ET
I'm sure there is some rule somewhere deep deep in the rules that the player has to be registered to the position he played most during the season. So we have Flower get 50 starts and Murray dresses as a forward for every one of them. If Flower needs to be pulled or gets hurt Murray is the emergency goalie.


I feel dirty trying to think of loop holes like this. Oh well, none of this will even be considered by the pens. Just a funny theory to throw out there.

- Zac_O


Its not even worth debating. I think the commish has powers to punish any team not in compliance with severe penalties. So ya you could attempt this then forfeit your next 10 1st round picks.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 3:52 PM ET
How on earth am I trolling with that post?
- sensarmy_11



Everyone knows theres no possibility we expose Murray in the expansion draft. Its silly and distracting to even propose that.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 10 @ 3:57 PM ET
Holy poop. This is genius.

Edit: I would assume there is some stipulation that the player has had to have played that position in the preceding season to be considered. Or maybe even a "listed position for the majority of the preceding season." But if not, it would be interesting.

- jmatchett383

In the middle of the season after we have a comfortable cushion in the standings, play Letang at forward so we can protect Maatta, Dumoulin, and Pouliot as our three defensemen and then just expose whoever has the worst season out of Rust, Sheary, and Wilson.

Babababam!!!!
jaydogg1974
Joined: 06.18.2012

Aug 10 @ 3:58 PM ET
This scenario won't happen because we would lose two assets for little. I mean you propose offering vegas something not to take murray and then lose pouliot/hornq to vegas. Then murray gets offersheeted and we get picks back. It won't be good asset management.-

Bottomline I expect 1-2 trades to rectify the expansion draft problems. But I it comes down to whether we want to keep pouliot or not. The goalie trade is guaranteed. If pouliot becomes too valuable then I'd look to trade Hornqvist as I think his trade value would be pretty high as a rental. Or you do a gogo-james neal type trade to someone whose willing to protect pouliot. And then we get into the acceptable loss criteria of a rust/sheary type.

- sditulli


So basically you're saying that if an offer sheet happens the Pens have to match regardless of the offer? Financial management is also a part of asset management and you can't over commit funds to 1 player out of fear from losing an asset. If someone is willing to overpay Murray through an offer sheet the correct move is to let him walk and take the picks unless you're comfortable having 35%-40% of your cap tied to 5 players.

Also I never suggested offering anything to LV in order to not draft Murray but how would the loss be any different than them trading/dumping Fleury and then having someone offer sheet Murray with an offer the Pens can't match? In that case, which is basically what you suggested, they'Re still losing 2 assets for little return but now both assets are from the same position and the team will be completely crushed in goal.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 4:11 PM ET
So basically you're saying that if an offer sheet happens the Pens have to match regardless of the offer? Financial management is also a part of asset management and you can't over commit funds to 1 player out of fear from losing an asset. If someone is willing to overpay Murray through an offer sheet the correct move is to let him walk and take the picks unless you're comfortable having 35%-40% of your cap tied to 5 players.

Also I never suggested offering anything to LV in order to not draft Murray but how would the loss be any different than them trading/dumping Fleury and then having someone offer sheet Murray with an offer the Pens can't match? In that case, which is basically what you suggested, they'Re still losing 2 assets for little return but now both assets are from the same position and the team will be completely crushed in goal.

- jaydogg1974


No I'm saying we will deal with our goalie situation before the expansion draft so we are not in that situation. I would match the offer sheet if we go with murray and trade fleury so no asset lost. I think an offer sheet is possible on him if we still have Fleury on the books as a team would see it as a chance to do an offersheet that we wouldn't match. If we've already moved murray we have the cap space to match so he likely won't get one. But we will still have to pay him.

Bottom line I just think we see trades before the expansion draft. Right now we are losing too much.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 4:14 PM ET
General rule of thumb - Any team schedule to lose a 3d (a 4th D whose 3d quality), an abover average 2nd line winger we are likely to see them make a trade before the draft.

If Fleury lacked a NMC there would be a chance we would expose him. But for the most part any 1G would also be traded before the draft.
Zac_O
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.17.2015

Aug 10 @ 4:16 PM ET
General rule of thumb - Any team schedule to lose a 3d (a 4th D whose 3d quality), an abover average 2nd line winger we are likely to see them make a trade before the draft.

If Fleury lacked a NMC there would be a chance we would expose him. But for the most part any 1G would also be traded before the draft.

- sditulli

Fleury can waive his NMC for the expansion draft. Not saying he will, just saying its an option.
kgrpitt
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 09.08.2010

Aug 10 @ 4:20 PM ET
Fleury can waive his NMC for the expansion draft. Not saying he will, just saying its an option.
- Zac_O


Huh, that is interesting. Never thought about that. Say Fleury takes a backseat this year he may want to do that for playing time. Even though I don't think that will happen, him taking a backseat that is.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 10 @ 4:23 PM ET
Speaking of folks who may go unprotected in the expansion draft,

a bit about Ryan Murphy

http://cccanes.blogspot.com
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Aug 10 @ 4:31 PM ET
As the contracts stand now the only thing that might have changed was Raffl protected and one of Laughton or Cousins left off. Without any resignings Philly is in great shape going into the expansion draft, Really the only resigning I see is DelZotto and that makes him protected and Mandog left out for the pickings.
- dragonoffrost



agree with all this, except I can't imagine signing Weise for 4 years only to give him away the following season.
I know Laughton, and Cousins have more offensive upside, but Weise gives the team another element, a grinding hard nosed pain in the ass to play against, who's hands are underrated. A player, or 2 like him is what we would have needed in the Washington series.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 10 @ 4:45 PM ET
Everyone knows theres no possibility we expose Murray in the expansion draft. Its silly and distracting to even propose that.
- sditulli



Except that it's proposed in the blog, written by the pens blogger, which is what I said I was referencing.

Sometimes reading before posting helps you not look idiotic
Amanion
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 07.02.2012

Aug 10 @ 5:06 PM ET
Why is it that every time the Penguins get good, an expansion draft comes in and steals away one of their good players?
The last thing the NHL needs is a more watered down product. ugh
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 10 @ 5:08 PM ET
Why is it that every time the Penguins get good, an expansion draft comes in and steals away one of their good players?
The last thing the NHL needs is a more watered down product. ugh

- Amanion


Yes. It's a conspiracy against the Penguins, and they are the only team that has ever suffered from expansion.
Erik6Karlsson5
Ottawa Senators
Location: It's Knuckle Puck Time.., NB
Joined: 01.23.2013

Aug 10 @ 5:19 PM ET
Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 5
Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 5

- Ryan_Wilson



I posted the same Ottawa protected list in the Sens thread yesterday, except I protected Ceci over MM..It's going to suck loosing Marc Methot
pensfan024
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: somewhere in, VA
Joined: 09.25.2012

Aug 10 @ 5:20 PM ET
https://twitter.com/CuteEmergency/status/763410837088374784
love the black one at the end

also this thing is amazing
http://penguins-year-in-gifs.tumblr.com/

- martox


+1
Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Aug 10 @ 5:22 PM ET
Yes. Only Las Vegas an Edmonton will be willing to spend big on free agents next offseason.

waah

- jmatchett383


Guess my point was more along the lines of key FA guys will likely have "agreed" to deals but will remain unsigned until after the expansion draft. Then magically we will see a flurry of signings once its over.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 6:06 PM ET
Except that it's proposed in the blog, written by the pens blogger, which is what I said I was referencing.

Sometimes reading before posting helps you not look idiotic

- sensarmy_11


Ya and he said Murray won't be unprotected. You proposed a team you thought that could field. It's beyond obvious Murray won't be available unless he manages to tear up both of his knees next year. Our worst case scenario is taking a Corey Schneider deal for him (Schneider wasn't a top 3 goop alive then).
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 6:10 PM ET
Guess my point was more along the lines of key FA guys will likely have "agreed" to deals but will remain unsigned until after the expansion draft. Then magically we will see a flurry of signings once its over.
- Gerk


Makes sense in theory but IMO you can always circle back like stamkos and take the money they offered after listening to what others have offered. As close to a free option for a player as you can get. Turning down money right before free agency isn't a huge risks for a player high likelihood your team will still take you back. It's not like turning down money mid season where there is injury risks.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Aug 10 @ 6:24 PM ET
Maybe I am a bit weird in the mindset that if Pouliot suddenly became what he is supposed to be, I'd go 4F 4D and Expose Horny in an INSTANT. He'd had just 1 year left on his deal, and I'd just have to live with it.

In that Scenario, it'd be

Sid, Geno, Kessel, Hags
Letang, Maatta, Dumo, Pouliot
Flower/Murray (if Flower dealt).


Having a stud top 4 D locked up is better than 1 more year of a top 6 winger. Sorry Horny, but if DP shows up this year, you're getting exposed in my book. But if we cannot protect Murray, then it doesn't matter LOL.

- Guile


Hornqvist won't be too worried.

Murray won't be lost for nothing. If Ruth's hands are tied and he can't deal MAF, Murray will be easily moved. The return might suffer however. It will be hard to leverage a great return if GM's know he has to be traded.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 10 @ 8:20 PM ET
Hornqvist won't be too worried.

Murray won't be lost for nothing. If Ruth's hands are tied and he can't deal MAF, Murray will be easily moved. The return might suffer however. It will be hard to leverage a great return if GM's know he has to be traded.

- madmike71


Too many factors to determine right now. Fleury splits time this and plays well with .92 + save percentage he might look really appealing. The one thing I noticed about goalies is a lot goalies look good and then regressed. There's a lot of bad goalie contracts out there. Grabbing fleury with only 2 years of term or is a pretty safe bet.

Worst case we have to retain 1-2 million and trade him to Dallas or Ottawa in a goalie swap.
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

Aug 10 @ 11:26 PM ET
Even with the more favorable expansion rules, I'm starting to think that... uh Las Vegas is going to suck donkey diks. And that is a serious level of sucking.
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

Aug 10 @ 11:30 PM ET
Too many factors to determine right now. Fleury splits time this and plays well with .92 + save percentage he might look really appealing. The one thing I noticed about goalies is a lot goalies look good and then regressed. There's a lot of bad goalie contracts out there. Grabbing fleury with only 2 years of term or is a pretty safe bet.

Worst case we have to retain 1-2 million and trade him to Dallas or Ottawa in a goalie swap.

- sditulli


Goalies are hard to judge. As a Leaf fan, we got a fan base saying "draft the goalie of the future". Which is stupid. The only time that the top rated goalie in a draft has ever become something real... was Fleury and Price. That's like once every 5 or more years.

I think the Pens will trade Fleury(I'm a Fleury fan) but Murray is proving himself and is obviously much younger. Did he not win rookie of the year in the AHL 2 seasons ago? I thought Connor Brown(leaf prospect) had it locked up because he won the rookie scoring title, but nope.

Murray is the real deal. And Fleury is the real deal. But Murray is roughly ten years younger than Fleury. So the Pens MUST hold onto Murray. Which makes Fleury tradeable.

edit: Unless PIT get's an offer on Murray they can't refuse. If it was the Leafs(and I wouldn't do this trade from our side, but the point is, it needs to be a huge overpayment for Murray)

W Nylander a 2017 2nd and a 2018 1st.(I'm a realistic Leaf fan. We can't give away our 2017 first rounder...too many rookies. We could get lucky and finish 14th to 20th, but most likely....24th-29th) EDM is 30th because...EDM.
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

Aug 10 @ 11:45 PM ET
Keeping Murray and Flower is easy. Move Murray to be a forward then protect him.
- Zac_O


That...is truly genius. Honestly. It'd be easier for D to F and vice versa... because Fleury would have to actually dress in player equipment and play some 4th line shifts. But it could totally be done.

Then they'd have to change the rules after the fact to prevent it.

Like when Avery stood in front of Brodeur waiving his hands in Marty's face. It wasn't technically against the rules....but then they incorporated it AFTER THE FACT into unsportsmanlike conduct.

I'm not an Avery fan. He's a piece of garbage, but that specific move was legit. It was effective. And it was genius.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 11 @ 12:41 AM ET
Goalies are hard to judge. As a Leaf fan, we got a fan base saying "draft the goalie of the future". Which is stupid. The only time that the top rated goalie in a draft has ever become something real... was Fleury and Price. That's like once every 5 or more years.

I think the Pens will trade Fleury(I'm a Fleury fan) but Murray is proving himself and is obviously much younger. Did he not win rookie of the year in the AHL 2 seasons ago? I thought Connor Brown(leaf prospect) had it locked up because he won the rookie scoring title, but nope.

Murray is the real deal. And Fleury is the real deal. But Murray is roughly ten years younger than Fleury. So the Pens MUST hold onto Murray. Which makes Fleury tradeable.

edit: Unless PIT get's an offer on Murray they can't refuse. If it was the Leafs(and I wouldn't do this trade from our side, but the point is, it needs to be a huge overpayment for Murray)

W Nylander a 2017 2nd and a 2018 1st.(I'm a realistic Leaf fan. We can't give away our 2017 first rounder...too many rookies. We could get lucky and finish 14th to 20th, but most likely....24th-29th) EDM is 30th because...EDM.

- Njuice

Murray for nylander straight up would be an interesting trade I could argue for. If you want to argue our window will be the best for the next 3-4 years then adding a stud winger and just running with fleury can work. Fleury should be good for that time frame.

Unless Murray turns into a top 3 goalie then longer term we still have two 2nd round prospects jarry and Gustafson. One of them should become a decent goalie when fleury is done.

If the leafs had signed stamkos then nylander would be a little more expandable and could work for both teams.

Then when Malkin/Crosby/letang are 35 or so and if the window closes nylander would be a nice trade cheap to trade for picks.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Aug 11 @ 5:40 AM ET
I don't think they'll be a cup contender, or even a playoff contender, by any stretch, but I think they could ice a pretty decent team. Just looking quickly through (plus assuming who might be available and unprotected from the remaining teams (I'm assuming that will be part 6)...and not taking into consideration any FAs they sign, I came up with

Forwards - Kruger, Grigorenko, Jenner, Brown, Granlund, Coyle, Plekanec, Wilson, Prince, Callahan

Defence - Methot, Schultz, Gunnarsson, Hamhuis, Brodin, Reinhardt

Goalies - Varlamov, Murray

(using the guys that Ryan thinks will be unprotected). that's not a terrible team, better than some teams in the league right now. certainly missing those 1 or 2 "marquee" guys, definitely no superstars, but a competitive team.

- sensarmy_11


Pens can only lose 1 player - I'm taking it Shultz is the ex oiler now Cup winning Pens Dman? So Vegas Blueballs can't take both Shultz & Murray.
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