Nah. Not really, there's been tons of studies, research, and articles (that I referenced) that back that up.


- j.boyd919

They all are based on the idea that QoC evens out over time.

I do not believe it does.

but I am having a Tanner attitude day today and you did not take the bait. I am either pleased or annoyed or confused.

One would say mentioning someone's degrees to help prop up their argument is a pretty common logical fallacy. The funny thing being that it wasn't even necessary. Let the argument speak for itself.
- Blackstrom2

I'm guessing you missed the irony.

Is Bob McKenzie a "great hockey mind" or a reporter with awesome connections? I actually think McKenzie probably has some weird outdated opinions about stuff, but who knows, one reason everyone loves him so much is he doesn't really get too opinionated. He shoots right down the middle when he does.
- James_Tanner

wow....you are just simply laughable in every perspective

I'm guessing you missed the irony.
- James_Tanner

Is that why we all know that you have 14 English degrees?

I wish I could play poker with you.
- James_Tanner

Copied and pasted from a reply you made on the last blog.


http://www.hockeybuzz.com...137893&page=last#16660814


"How hard would it be to make a point like an adult and act in a friendly way while engaging in what I can only assume is your #1 hobby? "


If we did play poker, you'd be playing the odds on every hand. I'd win one big hand and clean you out. Think about how that relates to the current conversation.

You can't use the rationalization that he played on a bad team because you've been telling us they're a good team for the past 2 seasons.

One would say mentioning someone's degrees to help prop up their argument is a pretty common logical fallacy. The funny thing being that it wasn't even necessary. Let the argument speak for itself.
- Blackstrom2

- MJL

I mean, lets be real though. Tanner knew what he was doing. Tulsky is pretty spot.

They all are based on the idea that QoC evens out over time.

I do not believe it does.

but I am having a Tanner attitude day today and you did not take the bait. I am either pleased or annoyed or confused.
- Aetherial

Here's what I believe. I believe that statistically, if you want to use certain metrics, it's relatively even over time. I think what people like Tanner dismiss, is the impact that the situations that don't even out over time, have on the outcome of a game. You just can't look at everything in a sport such as hockey with the statistical mean. Or with the sample size argument. The events that make the most difference in a game, happen infrequently. A hockey coach can't say well over time, it will all even out in a 3-3 game in the 3rd period. He knows one shift, or one play, will decide the game, or worse, a playoff series, or even worse, in a game 7 in the cup finals. That's the real world, not the statistical world.

Kessel was a loser, until he wasn't.....

This is coming from the same guy who says Brent Seabrook should be cut from training camp

Take it with a grain of salt when he says Taylor Hall is one of the ten best forwards in the NHL

Yes, you may notice people don't do any research or check any facts, then they get very sarcastic and rude despite being completely ignorant or making no effort to understand your point.

For example, the New Jersey Devils were coached by Jaques Lemaire and played boring hockey in the 90s, so even though its 20 years later, people still assume they can't score.
- James_Tanner

In 1999-2000 only the Detroit Red Wings scored more goals in the regular season then the Devils. In 2000-2001 The Devils scored the most goals league wide in the regular season. There have been some excellent offensive seasons and players.

Last year was pretty bleak. We didn't have a great offensive club to start. Lost Elias for essentially the season. Lost Cammalleri for about half the season to injury. We traded away Stempniak who producing well at the trade deadline. We had a pile of dead weight in bottom six in Ruutu, Tootoo, Farnham, and Gionta. We had a new coach with a new system. It was pretty ugly. But there are some good players and it will improve.

Well for one, while Rielly played that much against Crosby, Gardiner faced Malkin for the same amount of time. He faced Hall instead of McDavid. Krejci against Bergeron. I am telling you, it makes no difference.

If you want to think I'm an idiot, go ahead. There are literally tons of research papers, studies, blogs, and arguments about it online. There are also people who'll patiently explain it to you.

Don't take my word for anything. Go do your own research.
- James_Tanner

Here's what I believe. I believe that statistically, if you want to use certain metrics, it's relatively even over time. I think what people like Tanner dismiss, is the impact that the situations that don't even out over time, have on the outcome of a game. You just can't look at everything in a sport such as hockey with the statistical mean. Or with the sample size argument. The events that make the most difference in a game, happen infrequently. A hockey coach can't say well over time, it will all even out in a 3-3 game in the 3rd period. He knows one shift, or one play, will decide the game, or worse, a playoff series, or even worse, in a game 7 in the cup finals. That's the real world, not the statistical world.
- MJL

Read an article last year that showed that simple shots on goal was better than Corsi or Fenwick at predicting the outcome of a game in which there was a 1-goal difference in score.

I don't believe the advanced stats are useful for any small or medium sample size of either players or games.

@Tanner - This pathetic clickbait attempt is an example of how little you know about hockey. Leave the trade philosophy to the Pros (The GMs) - as you clearly have no grasp of the sport itself or the mechanics behind it. toolbag..

Read an article last year that showed that simple shots on goal was better than Corsi or Fenwick at predicting the outcome of a game in which there was a 1-goal difference in score.

I don't believe the advanced stats are useful for any small or medium sample size of either players or games.
- Aetherial

How is this not a known fact yet? You need a huge sample before shot attempts for and against for individual players/teams starts to reveal anything of substance.

@Tanner - This pathetic clickbait attempt is an example of how little you know about hockey. Leave the trade philosophy to the Pros (The GMs) - as you clearly have no grasp of the sport itself or the mechanics behind it. toolbag..
- StephaneRicher

I wouldn't want to touch any of the the Taylor Hall magazines Tanner has in his house. He's a little to obsessed.

- eichiefs9

Grossman > rundblad.

I wouldn't want to touch any of the the Taylor Hall magazines Tanner has in his house. He's a little to obsessed.
- Razzdazzle1

glued shut

From Eric Tulsky, who is an "analytics pioneer" who holds a PHD from Harvard in chemistry and has worked in nanotechnology. He is the lead anaylitics guy on the Hurricanes and as far as I know was the first "blogger" hired by the NHL.

Conclusion

While competition certainly does play a big factor in determining how a player will do in any given shift, with these competition metrics we see nobody with usage extreme enough to require a major correction factor. Using the curve for the average player on the first chart, we can calculate that Nodl’s 95th percentile usage is only harsh enough to bump an average player’s Corsi down to 49.5%, while Betts’ 13th percentile usage would be soft enough to allow an average player to post a 50.6% Corsi.

The analogous situation in zone starts would be if everyone’s offensive zone start percentage were between 48% and 52%; such small corrections are scarcely worth the effort, and a person who ignored competition when evaluating players would not be wrong by much. Quality of competition is very similar to shot quality: it plays a huge role in individual shifts/shots, but over the course of a season the differences across teams and players are small enough that it can usually be neglected.

These competition metrics provide valuable insight into what a coach thinks of a player and how he tries to use them, but in practice they do not show differences large enough to have significant impact on the player’s results.


http://nhlnumbers.com/201...of-quality-of-competition
- James_Tanner

My mother in law also has a phd in chemistry and has been on the board for UIC but that still doesn't make her an expert in hockey.
Just because the NHL hired him does not mean anything to me, just look at the history of bad hiring decisions they have made from commissioner to player safety.

- eichiefs9

oh jeez I love this.

My mother in law also has a phd in chemistry and has been on the board for UIC but that still doesn't make her an expert in hockey.
Just because the NHL hired him does not mean anything to me, just look at the history of bad hiring decisions they have made from commissioner to player safety.
- waitforawhistle

Hired by the NHL! Would that be a logical fallacy?

This is coming from the same guy who says Brent Seabrook should be cut from training camp

Take it with a grain of salt when he says Taylor Hall is one of the ten best forwards in the NHL
- hawkeytalkman

Yep.
Another thing that never seems to be mentioned is that Hall is a great LEFT WINGER. I don't have reason for it, but if you look at the top 100 scorers of all time there are about as many defensemen as there are left wingers. It just seems that LW is, for whatever reason, the least critical position on the ice.