I give up. It's like I am living in a twilight zone. The people who are the most wrong, with the worst ideas have started being condescending to me. A guy told me to but out, in my own blog. Another guy called a mathematical certainty "laughable."

And now this. Keep up the good work guys!!
- JTanner

James, you have the ultimate forum here to prove anyone wrong. Unless of course you just want to state it, and call it a fact. There was nothing condescending in my post.

I'm still waiting for your answer on whether the HERO charts you frequently post, use score adjusted data or not.

I give up. It's like I am living in a twilight zone. The people who are the most wrong, with the worst ideas have started being condescending to me. A guy told me to but out, in my own blog. Another guy called a mathematical certainty "laughable."

And now this. Keep up the good work guys!!
- JTanner

Being incredulous at losing an argument does not make you right any more than absolute statements that put forth your opinions as facts, nor do they magically win the argument for you.

I give up. It's like I am living in a twilight zone. The people who are the most wrong, with the worst ideas have started being condescending to me. A guy told me to but out, in my own blog. Another guy called a mathematical certainty "laughable."

And now this. Keep up the good work guys!!
- JTanner

Well, you bring this upon yourself by doing you poor job of explaining your position through your use of inconsistent, flavor of the day, cherry picked stats used in the wrong context that you incorrectly treat as infallible. That’s your problem, not anybody else’s.

When you are walking down the street, do you stop and look at every shiny object you see? My guess is yes.

Being incredulous at losing an argument does not make you right any more than absolute statements that put forth your opinions as facts, nor do they magically win the argument for you.
- Aetherial

I don't want to win this argument. I want to cry because I became a part of it.

I don't want to win this argument. I want to cry because I became a part of it.
- JTanner

I advised you to hold out on this discussion.

I don't want to win this argument. I want to cry because I became a part of it.
- JTanner

That was a good line. I am going to remember that one.

I don't want to win this argument. I want to cry because I became a part of it.
- JTanner

It's really not about winning an argument, it's about reasonable use of analytics.

They missed the playoffs and brought in a new coach who explained to Ovie he needed to play D too. Sure the production is great...but not if you're losing games...great to score 2 goals...but if your play allows the other team to score 3 while your on the ice....is that the production you want? Not saying it's all his fault but he doesnt get a free pass just because he scores.
- Garnie

Your timeline is off.

That said, ovechkin is a garbage 5on5 player. been like that since his 4th year.

Rundblad still not in an NHL camp. WTF

Your timeline is off.

That said, ovechkin is a garbage 5on5 player. been like that since his 4th year.
- Blackstrom2

Timelines off? -35 miss playoffs 2013-2014 - hire Trotz May 2014

No?

lol, this guy just keeps proving that he's never played the game and just does not really understand it. All of the stats and comments about Hall are valid, but if you do not have the right attitude it is all for not.

I guess if you just look at your dungeons and dragons "hero charts" about players and you only see things on the surface...you would come up with a blog like that.

I'll take 29 GMs in the NHL's word for it...mystery solved.

Plus Minus is a terrible stat, I can't believe we're still doing this.

It's based off goals which are rare and random, making any conclusions based on it meaningless.

Shots are better because there is approximately 10 or 12 shots for every goal, so you can get a huge sample size rather quickly, making your conclusions much more likely to be accurate.

There are a lot of things we can argue about, this isn't one of them.

It's not my opinion that plus/minus is a bad stat: it's a mathematical certainty.
- JTanner

Goals may be rare. But hardly RANDOM. My God man! A team devoid of talent, like the 2105-16 Leafs scored on a meager 7.6% of their shots. Not all players are created equal. The Stars last year...with talent like Seguin, Benn, Spezza, Sharp, etc....well, they managed to score at a much better 10.1% rate.

The Leafs were actually the 6th or 7th best team at TAKING shots.....they just happen to be very poor at burying them.

Using shots to rate a players effectiveness....when the goal of any player or team is to OUTSCORE the opposition...well sir, THAT is insanity!!!!

I just want to know one thing. Is there one of those fancy advanced stat charts that shows how many times he skated up the wing in those three years, and then proceeded to not pass to anyone and do something stupid and then create an odd man rush the other way, usually resulting in a goal. Because, I watch all the games, and I can't tell you how many times I've seen that. Hall is a very good player, but all you stats guys have to actually watch him play, to know he is not elite like Crosby or Mcdavid.

I don't see any GM that knows his team, would underrate Hall. Yes he was on a losing team and was the locker rooms motivation and symbolic leader despite not wearing the C. He has on more than one ocassion proved he was a top player and a winner on the International stage. He has made his way to the top line and dominated on it. This past World Championship he emerged as not only an amazing offensive player but a great defensive forward as well.

Whether you think Larsson is worth Hall, point is that most people don't. Hall took this personally. He has been vocal about the low value they got for him. Not only is insulting but he wanted to be an Oiler. He gave t everything he had and led that team from the day he was drafted.

The Oilers management always falls back on the excuse that UFA's don't want to sign with them. It must be understood that players take this sort of thing into consideration. This is a career for them. Not only did the Oilers trade their current best player for a prospect, it poses questions in the hockey world.

Are the Oilers still rebuiliding?
Do the Oilers have the ability to put a successful team on the ice despite the rebuild?
And for players you can't feel comfortable going to a team that would shoot themselves in the foot. Plus it is insulting. Oilers brass over the years have burned many bridges. Hall is a friend of many players around the league. There is no way that this couldn't have hurt their chances with some UFAs in the future. The more they screw over their players, the harder it gets to build a team.

Timelines off? -35 miss playoffs 2013-2014 - hire Trotz May 2014

No?
- Garnie

Yes, but the "defensive switch" supposedly came from Hunter. Oates was just a garbage coach.

Why laugh at those? Given that like 5 or 6 of the last 12 stanley cup winners finished 1st or 2nd in Corsi for in the regular season, and I think 8 or 9 of 12 finished top 10, there is a correlation to Corsi and winningnthe stanley cup.
- j.boyd919

Youre confusing correlation with causality there bud. Yes, there is a correlation, but correlation doesn't produce anything by definition. Its useless if you can't show that it works 100% of the time, which would indicate that one thing actually causes another. What you have just interpreted here is called "P-hacking." Its the most flawed reasoning exercise that exists and it is quite prevalent among the analytics pushing community. Recently, a study where P-hacking was used, famously concluded that there is a correlation between Judaism and eating raw tomatoes. Here's a good example: Did you know that every single Stanley Cup winner in history has had at least one player whose last name is spelled with more than one vowel? I actually spent several minutes researching it and its true!

Why laugh at those? Given that like 5 or 6 of the last 12 stanley cup winners finished 1st or 2nd in Corsi for in the regular season, and I think 8 or 9 of 12 finished top 10, there is a correlation to Corsi and winningnthe stanley cup.
- j.boyd919

I ain't going back to look. But dollars to donuts the same percentage or more of Stanley Cup winners also had the top or Top 10 +/- !!!

Great and winning teams will obviously have MOST of the top stats, whatever they are. It just makes common sense....it doesn't support your argument.

lol, this guy just keeps proving that he's never played the game and just does not really understand it. All of the stats and comments about Hall are valid, but if you do not have the right attitude it is all for not.

I guess if you just look at your dungeons and dragons "hero charts" about players and you only see things on the surface...you would come up with a blog like that.

I'll take 29 GMs in the NHL's word for it...mystery solved.
- JLO961

100% truth. But you don't need any experience playing the game or even watching it to be a self proclaimed expert on said game. I've never been married or had kids but all I need to do is read a couple books and look at some graphs and pie charts and BAM, I'm an expert and can tell Jimmy tan tan how to raise his kids and make a marriage successful.

I don't see any GM that knows his team, would underrate Hall. Yes he was on a losing team and was the locker rooms motivation and symbolic leader despite not wearing the C. He has on more than one ocassion proved he was a top player and a winner on the International stage. He has made his way to the top line and dominated on it. This past World Championship he emerged as not only an amazing offensive player but a great defensive forward as well.

Whether you think Larsson is worth Hall, point is that most people don't. Hall took this personally. He has been vocal about the low value they got for him. Not only is insulting but he wanted to be an Oiler. He gave t everything he had and led that team from the day he was drafted.

The Oilers management always falls back on the excuse that UFA's don't want to sign with them. It must be understood that players take this sort of thing into consideration. This is a career for them. Not only did the Oilers trade their current best player for a prospect, it poses questions in the hockey world.

Are the Oilers still rebuiliding?
Do the Oilers have the ability to put a successful team on the ice despite the rebuild?
And for players you can't feel comfortable going to a team that would shoot themselves in the foot. Plus it is insulting. Oilers brass over the years have burned many bridges. Hall is a friend of many players around the league. There is no way that this couldn't have hurt their chances with some UFAs in the future. The more they screw over their players, the harder it gets to build a team.
- Hall Fan

You're making way too much of this. Players know this is a business, and players get traded. There is no way this is going to affect the Oilers ability to attract UFA's. Oilers trade Hall on June 29th. Milan Lucic signs with Oilers on July 1. Chiarelli made this deal because he needed to upgrade the Oilers defense. It was a hockey trade. Players are emotional, and Hall will get over it.

I don't see any GM that knows his team, would underrate Hall. Yes he was on a losing team and was the locker rooms motivation and symbolic leader despite not wearing the C. He has on more than one ocassion proved he was a top player and a winner on the International stage. He has made his way to the top line and dominated on it. This past World Championship he emerged as not only an amazing offensive player but a great defensive forward as well.

Whether you think Larsson is worth Hall, point is that most people don't. Hall took this personally. He has been vocal about the low value they got for him. Not only is insulting but he wanted to be an Oiler. He gave t everything he had and led that team from the day he was drafted.

The Oilers management always falls back on the excuse that UFA's don't want to sign with them. It must be understood that players take this sort of thing into consideration. This is a career for them. Not only did the Oilers trade their current best player for a prospect, it poses questions in the hockey world.

Are the Oilers still rebuiliding?
Do the Oilers have the ability to put a successful team on the ice despite the rebuild?
And for players you can't feel comfortable going to a team that would shoot themselves in the foot. Plus it is insulting. Oilers brass over the years have burned many bridges. Hall is a friend of many players around the league. There is no way that this couldn't have hurt their chances with some UFAs in the future. The more they screw over their players, the harder it gets to build a team.
- Hall Fan

Ok man. I get it. Hall was your favorite and no trade would have been worth it.
But why must you continue to label Larsson a prospect? After 250+ games it should be obvious he is a NHL PLAYER, no?

Yes, but the "defensive switch" supposedly came from Hunter. Oates was just a garbage coach.
- Blackstrom2

I remember Trotz talking about it in an interview....not that it matters.

You're making way too much of this. Players know this is a business, and players get traded. There is no way this is going to affect the Oilers ability to attract UFA's. Oilers trade Hall on June 29th. Milan Lucic signs with Oilers on July 1. Chiarelli made this deal because he needed to upgrade the Oilers defense. It was a hockey trade. Players are emotional, and Hall will get over it.
- MJL

this guy thinks Reinhart is going to be better than Larsson long term so dont pay attention to him

Ok man. I get it. Hall was your favorite and no trade would have been worth it.
But why must you continue to label Larsson a prospect? After 250+ games it should be obvious he is a NHL PLAYER, no?
- Wildschwein

Have to agree Schwein, Larsson isn't a prospect and is actually a piece the Oilers really needed IMHO. Had to pay to get him.

this guy thinks Reinhart is going to be better than Larsson long term so dont pay attention to him
- DDM-Coga

That's a Phucking pipe dream!