"The scary thing about the Oilers - and I agree their D isn't great and their management is brutal - is that something like Draisaitl, Maroon and Puljujarvi will get to play (assuming a healthy lineup) against almost exclusively bad competition.
This is an example of how you can use rookies/ECL players to exploit the salary cap and get a favorable advantage. And its the reason I think Draisaitl will have a big year.
I am wont to argue that quality of competition doesn't really matter when comparing players for analysis purposes, in part because long-term favorable matchups in the NHL are extremely rare. However, much like Kessel on the third line in Pittsburgh, I think this might be an exception to the rule because with McDavid and RNH ahead of them, it should be a fairly regular thing for these players to face competition who won't be effective at stopping a 1st line capable offensive attack. "
Whatever suits your argument on any given day hey Tanner....lol
Me too, that's why Tanner, in all his whacky takes, is IMO great - sbroads24
A lot of my so called hot takes have proven to be true over the long term.
I called the Leafs collapse under Carlye, was early to the OEL party, suggested Don Maloney sell of his cap space like two years before anyone even heard of John Chayka....hell, the Coyotes essentially followed my suggestions for their franchise to a t......I told you all Roy was the worst, and that's all just the stuff that comes right to mind.
I know I am over the top sometimes, but my track record actually is half decent, and a lot of the stuff people really get bad about - no fighting, faceoffs, quc, saying Subban is better than Weber, noticing the decline of duncan Keith etc IS right, it's just not widely accepted.
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY Joined: 02.12.2012
Sep 14 @ 10:39 AM ET
But you THINK its BS. You have a predetermined opinion you are not willing to change.
It's proven. The study is from 2012 and many, many people have replicated it. Almost no players face extreme competition to the point where you have to adjust for it in the analysis of one player vs another.
Despite your examples (and I swear, the next time someone accuses me of cherry picking....) over the course of the season, they faced a minute tenth of a percentage or so difference in the CF% of their competition. - James_Tanner
It's proven what exactly? That it doesn't dramatically effect corsi? Is that it? Great, I don't rank players based on Corsi either. I try and look at a lot of things.
If you want to call Rasmus Ristolainen a 4th or 5th defensemen, based on his Corsi numbers, and ignoring other parts of his game, that's fine. Expect push back
A lot of my so called hot takes have proven to be true over the long term.
I called the Leafs collapse under Carlye, was early to the OEL party, suggested Don Maloney sell of his cap space like two years before anyone even heard of John Chayka....hell, the Coyotes essentially followed my suggestions for their franchise to a t......I told you all Roy was the worst, and that's all just the stuff that comes right to mind.
I know I am over the top sometimes, but my track record actually is half decent, and a lot of the stuff people really get bad about - no fighting, faceoffs, quc, saying Subban is better than Weber, noticing the decline of duncan Keith etc IS right, it's just not widely accepted.
To sum up, I is the best. - James_Tanner
After they fired him
but yes...you are the best and you have jumped into the empty pool head first. Go Team Corsi Go
Exactly why a kid like Auston Matthews, who looks to be a great talent, won't help the Leafs (or any other bad team) become an instant playoff team. It's the culmination of acquired talent and team balance that wins games in the end.
Taylor Hall is not a "victim" he's a damn good young player who the Oilers needed to trade to change the balance of their team in order to move to the next level. - LeftCoaster
I have to agree that using a team's overall results as a criticism of an individual player, doesn't make a lot of sense. Edmonton's issue has been their defense. I think it's unfair to ask Taylor Hall to overcome that team weakness.
It's proven what exactly? That it doesn't dramatically effect corsi? Is that it? Great, I don't rank players based on Corsi either. I try and look at a lot of things.
If you want to call Rasmus Ristolainen a 4th or 5th defensemen, based on his Corsi numbers, and ignoring other parts of his game, that's fine. Expect push back - sbroads24
I think it's pretty easily seen that QOC for Risto and Franson are not even close.
Nothing has been proven.
A lot of my so called hot takes have proven to be true over the long term.
I called the Leafs collapse under Carlye, was early to the OEL party, suggested Don Maloney sell of his cap space like two years before anyone even heard of John Chayka....hell, the Coyotes essentially followed my suggestions for their franchise to a t......I told you all Roy was the worst, and that's all just the stuff that comes right to mind.
I know I am over the top sometimes, but my track record actually is half decent, and a lot of the stuff people really get bad about - no fighting, faceoffs, quc, saying Subban is better than Weber, noticing the decline of duncan Keith etc IS right, it's just not widely accepted.
To sum up, I is the best. - James_Tanner
At least you're more consistent than Eklund and his alphabet soup trade rumors.
But you THINK its BS. You have a predetermined opinion you are not willing to change.
It's proven. The study is from 2012 and many, many people have replicated it. Almost no players face extreme competition to the point where you have to adjust for it in the analysis of one player vs another.
Despite your examples (and I swear, the next time someone accuses me of cherry picking....) over the course of the season, they faced a minute tenth of a percentage or so difference in the CF% of their competition. - James_Tanner
CF% is one metric. How about shot quality? How about goals scored? And on and on.
Do you think there is any chance that your absolute-faith in the accuracy and usefulness of advanced statistics is possibly somewhat slightly misguided or over exaggerated? Would you concede the possibility that maybe their usefulness isn't quite where you (and others) proclaim it to be?
I'm not suggesting, or asking you to suggest, that they are entirely useless because I don't believe that myself. But sometimes it seems that you can be a bit too "absolute" in your proclamation of some data as inarguable and I think that's why you tend to catch a lot of flak.
Sure, the charts, graphs, etc... are great tools to have at your disposal, but that doesn't mean that the information they display can't be subject to interpretation and analysis, rather than being used as incontrovertible evidence of what the ultimate result is.
Just curious to hear your thinking on that front. - eichiefs9
I think people don't realize that those of us who use stats also love and watch a ton of hockey, read every blog, article and magazine, etc. We're nerds.
But to answer your question I'd turn it around: give me an example in the world, it can be anything, of a thing you would evaluate, analyze or compare where there is an obviously better way to do so than measuring and recording the data and then anaylyzing it.
So, while ideas, tracking, methods, theory, analysis etc can and will improve, there will never be a better way to evaluate anything than by measuring, recording and analyzing the data. It is an impossibility.
I also don't think anything is "inarguable" but if you don't agree 5v5 offense and improving the play of your linemates are two of the most valuable criteria to judge a hockey player on, then what is?
It is inarguable that Hall is among the best of the best at those two things. Add n the fact that he is a top 5 fastest skater and decent at defense, and what would your argument that he is bad, or that I'm overrating him even be?
A lot of my so called hot takes have proven to be true over the long term.
I called the Leafs collapse under Carlye, was early to the OEL party, suggested Don Maloney sell of his cap space like two years before anyone even heard of John Chayka....hell, the Coyotes essentially followed my suggestions for their franchise to a t......I told you all Roy was the worst, and that's all just the stuff that comes right to mind.
I know I am over the top sometimes, but my track record actually is half decent, and a lot of the stuff people really get bad about - no fighting, faceoffs, quc, saying Subban is better than Weber, noticing the decline of duncan Keith etc IS right, it's just not widely accepted.
To sum up, I is the best. - James_Tanner
How come Gardiner is better than Duncan Keith, or David Runblad is a good player, or any of the other ridiculous conclusions you've offered, don't come right to mind. Maybe we need to start keeping track, or you can just continue to state that "most" of your hot takes come true. What is most? 51%
"The scary thing about the Oilers - and I agree their D isn't great and their management is brutal - is that something like Draisaitl, Maroon and Puljujarvi will get to play (assuming a healthy lineup) against almost exclusively bad competition.
This is an example of how you can use rookies/ECL players to exploit the salary cap and get a favorable advantage. And its the reason I think Draisaitl will have a big year.
I am wont to argue that quality of competition doesn't really matter when comparing players for analysis purposes, in part because long-term favorable matchups in the NHL are extremely rare. However, much like Kessel on the third line in Pittsburgh, I think this might be an exception to the rule because with McDavid and RNH ahead of them, it should be a fairly regular thing for these players to face competition who won't be effective at stopping a 1st line capable offensive attack. "
Whatever suits your argument on any given day hey Tanner....lol - OGoilerfan
This is 100% in line with what I've been saying all along. Edges can be had. They are difficult to get.
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY Joined: 02.12.2012
Sep 14 @ 10:47 AM ET
I think it's pretty easily seen that QOC for Risto and Franson are not even close.
Nothing has been proven. - Garnie
I trust that the numbers are accurste. I also believe that Corsi is in fact important. But how one can sit here and say over a course of a season Reilly and Gardiner even out, when Reilly has played an entire games worth of ice time more against Sidney freaking Crosby than Gardiner is mind bottling. Maybe the difference is over stated, but it's a difference, and that cannot be denied
At least you're more consistent than Eklund and his alphabet soup trade rumors. - j.boyd919
So..he's been right about what others..more statistically-inclined people have been saying forever. The thing is, he's been dead wrong about a lot of his own assumptions and conclusions when he strays from his safe path.
I think people don't realize that those of us who use stats also love and watch a ton of hockey, read every blog, article and magazine, etc. We're nerds.
- James_Tanner
So are the majority of people who reply that object to a lot of your opinions. Just because you do that, doesn't mean you're right about anything. Still just opinions.
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today? Joined: 06.30.2006
Sep 14 @ 10:51 AM ET
QoC doesn't matter of the course of an 82 game season. Maybe in a 7 game playoff series where line matching is closely monitored, then yes, but not over the course of 82 games. - j.boyd919
So..he's been right about what others..more statistically-inclined people have been saying forever. The thing is, he's been dead wrong about a lot of his own assumptions and conclusions when he strays from his safe path. - Blackstrom2
Oh I know, definitely not disagreeing with that hahah one thing I will say, his blogs/comments are always entertaining, given how outspoken and over the top he is. Might not always agree with him, but it is entertaining.
But you THINK its BS. You have a predetermined opinion you are not willing to change.
It's proven. The study is from 2012 and many, many people have replicated it. Almost no players face extreme competition to the point where you have to adjust for it in the analysis of one player vs another.
Despite your examples (and I swear, the next time someone accuses me of cherry picking....) over the course of the season, they faced a minute tenth of a percentage or so difference in the CF% of their competition. - James_Tanner
No, sir. You have the predetermined opinion that you're unwilling to change.
In the face of so many people determined to bring common sense to your writing with facts, data and heated debate: you don't even have the humility to admit you were way off from time to time.
You never own up to the mistakes you make and you don't let common sense get in the way once many people prove you wrong in the comments section. Arrogant, Cloutier-like writing.
Go Team Corsi Go 
