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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Pacific Division Preview
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SRam19
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Messier the Greatest Canucks Captain
Joined: 02.12.2015

Oct 4 @ 6:58 PM ET
I think that Justin (Schultz) has Norris Trophy potential and I don’t think there are too many people who disagree with me in that regard.” — former Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish.
- laughs2907


didn't he hail him as the next Bobby Orr?
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Oct 4 @ 7:15 PM ET
didn't he hail him as the next Bobby Orr?
- SRam19


I'd imagine... I can't remember though. I do remember Bob Stauffer saying something about it being OK for Schultz to make mistakes, because Bobby Orr made mistakes too lol...
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

Oct 4 @ 7:21 PM ET
I would also have Van as the worst on paper but they do have key vets in every major position. A bunch of decent two way guys that while not flashy are also not exactly liabilities out there.

Solid systems.

Eriksson is a huge addition to the team and while I think many have him pegged for one big super Swede Line I imagine him stirring the drink on the second line. Easily a player that can primarily drive a line by himself IMO. Vastly underrated.

Gudbranson is a meh addition but also rounds out a solid top 4.

They are a team with no glaring strengths or weaknesses.

History has proven that a team with few weaknesses and plays like a team is better than teams that have talent but large glaring holes in thier line up especially on defense or in net.
dirt_face
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 07.12.2011

Oct 4 @ 8:02 PM ET
Its not the Canucks gm that doesn't realize a rebuild is necessary its the team owner who won't allow it
billcanuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 02.22.2007

Oct 4 @ 8:06 PM ET
I would also have Van as the worst on paper but they do have key vets in every major position. A bunch of decent two way guys that while not flashy are also not exactly liabilities out there.

Solid systems.

Eriksson is a huge addition to the team and while I think many have him pegged for one big super Swede Line I imagine him stirring the drink on the second line. Easily a player that can primarily drive a line by himself IMO. Vastly underrated.

Gudbranson is a meh addition but also rounds out a solid top 4.

They are a team with no glaring strengths or weaknesses.

History has proven that a team with few weaknesses and plays like a team is better than teams that have talent but large glaring holes in thier line up especially on defense or in net.

- Aerchon


I think my biggest concern with the OP is that it just sounds like a regurgitation of all the other media commentators about the Canucks.

This call for the team to embrace the rebuild is weird. First off, the entire roster has been remade under Benning. The team has gotten younger over the last three years. The philosophy of the rebuild is not the same as the Oilers and the Leafs. In part this has to with the Sedins, in part it has to do, I think, with an idea that you don't gut the team and tank on purpose. Every year, you're supposed to ice the best team possible.





TheNugeIsHuge
Edmonton Oilers
Location: McJesus, AB
Joined: 01.09.2013

Oct 4 @ 8:11 PM ET
my hero chart tells me Kessel is a fringe 2nd liner/good 3rd liner. 8M is a lot for a 3rd liner, what do you think?

Myers is a 3rd pairing D
Weber is a fringe D in the league
Nikitin is better than Josi
Barberio is a top pairing D
Nakladal is one of the best D in the league

Would really expect more "reasoning" than that
dirt_face
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 07.12.2011

Oct 4 @ 8:16 PM ET
my hero chart tells me Kessel is a fringe 2nd liner/good 3rd liner. 8M is a lot for a 3rd liner, what do you think?

Myers is a 3rd pairing D
Weber is a fringe D in the league
Nikitin is better than Josi
Barberio is a top pairing D
Nakladal is one of the best D in the league

Would really expect more "reasoning" than that

- TheNugeIsHuge


Penguins pay Kessel 6.8 and he was way better than a fringe 2nd liner in the playoffs
martox
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Stockholm - "Nights when we don't have our A-game, we better have our A-commitment & A-effort."
Joined: 09.25.2014

Oct 4 @ 8:18 PM ET
my hero chart tells me Kessel is a fringe 2nd liner/good 3rd liner. 8M is a lot for a 3rd liner, what do you think?

Myers is a 3rd pairing D
Weber is a fringe D in the league
Nikitin is better than Josi
Barberio is a top pairing D
Nakladal is one of the best D in the league

Would really expect more "reasoning" than that

- TheNugeIsHuge

2nd line in possession 1st line in production. don't know where you get 3rd liner from
wreckage
Florida Panthers
Location: Fire Bowman., AB
Joined: 07.29.2013

Oct 4 @ 8:22 PM ET
2nd line in possession 1st line in production. don't know where you get 3rd liner from
- martox


I think he's making an example of how you can't rely solely on hero charts to determine a players role. They may help paint a picture but there is more to it than just that.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 4 @ 8:34 PM ET
Yohe had a great article today forecasting the Pens roster future. Key takeaways were:
1) They want to sign Bonino and build around Crosby, Malkin, Bonino, and Sundqvist down the middle.
2) They see Sprong and Guentzel as potentially the main wings next to Malkin and Crosby respectively.
3) Rather than chase high priced wings, they will look to keep the prospect line going to fill out the rest. (We have all our picks moving forward )

We won't know for sure for a while yet about Guentzel and Sprong, but one thing I noticed about this line up his how much of that core is signed not only for this year, but the next 2 as well. Assuming they don't burn another year of Sprong's ELC, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hagelin, Guentzel, Sprong, Letang and Maatta are all under contract for at least 3 years at a combined salary of 42.06M.

Of the other members of that core, Dumoulin and Sundqvist are rfas. Dumoulin will get around 4M, Sundqvist likely stays under 1M. Bonino is a UFA and of course goalie needs to be worked out. I'd say that all takes around 14-16M (a lot depends on Fleury and Murray)

So their core for around 56-58M looks like
Guentzel-Crosby-?
?-Malkin-Sprong
HBK
?-Sundqvist-?

Maatta-Letang
Dumoulin-?

Leaves around 15M to fill holes. Internally you have Wilson, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Sheary, Simon, Rowney to battle for 2 top 6 spots and 2 4th line spots plus a bench spot in the long-term for cheap. Jarry may also fill the backup G for cheap. That puts us around 60 to 62M, leaving 10M or more to largely fill out the defense or possibly splurge on a mid level wing (Hornqvist would be in that spot next year).

Long-winded, but I wanted to really illustrate what great shape the Pens are in moving forward. If Guentzel and Sprong become top 6 talents, this team can easily get even better than it was last year.
Oneonta Penguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.02.2007

Oct 4 @ 9:43 PM ET
I think that Justin (Schultz) has Norris Trophy potential and I don’t think there are too many people who disagree with me in that regard.” — former Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish.
- laughs2907


Well, he is a #6 for the Stanley Cup winner and holds a Cup.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Oct 4 @ 10:15 PM ET
I hear that Newfoundlanders are the exception...
- laughs2907


F'n right.
Oneonta Penguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.02.2007

Oct 4 @ 10:26 PM ET
my hero chart tells me Kessel is a fringe 2nd liner/good 3rd liner. 8M is a lot for a 3rd liner, what do you think?

Myers is a 3rd pairing D
Weber is a fringe D in the league
Nikitin is better than Josi
Barberio is a top pairing D
Nakladal is one of the best D in the league

Would really expect more "reasoning" than that

- TheNugeIsHuge


LOL ... Kessel's line was by far the most successful line in the play-offs. Third on the line chart, but most productive.

Our third line is better than some team's first. BTW, Toronto is paying some of the salary.
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Oct 4 @ 11:10 PM ET
Well, he is a #6 for the Stanley Cup winner and holds a Cup.
- Oneonta Penguin


Yeah, that validates the Norris comment.
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Oct 4 @ 11:11 PM ET
F'n right.
- MattStrat


Newfies unite!
TheNugeIsHuge
Edmonton Oilers
Location: McJesus, AB
Joined: 01.09.2013

Oct 4 @ 11:11 PM ET
2nd line in possession 1st line in production. don't know where you get 3rd liner from
- martox


two thirds of his possession bubble is in the 3rd liner quadrant, almost fully if you look at 2015. Also look at his effect on expected goals both years, my analysis states he is a 2nd liner who's a defensive liability. this is why you do more than looking at a hero chart
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Oct 5 @ 6:52 AM ET
Yohe had a great article today forecasting the Pens roster future. Key takeaways were:
1) They want to sign Bonino and build around Crosby, Malkin, Bonino, and Sundqvist down the middle.
2) They see Sprong and Guentzel as potentially the main wings next to Malkin and Crosby respectively.
3) Rather than chase high priced wings, they will look to keep the prospect line going to fill out the rest. (We have all our picks moving forward )

We won't know for sure for a while yet about Guentzel and Sprong, but one thing I noticed about this line up his how much of that core is signed not only for this year, but the next 2 as well. Assuming they don't burn another year of Sprong's ELC, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hagelin, Guentzel, Sprong, Letang and Maatta are all under contract for at least 3 years at a combined salary of 42.06M.

Of the other members of that core, Dumoulin and Sundqvist are rfas. Dumoulin will get around 4M, Sundqvist likely stays under 1M. Bonino is a UFA and of course goalie needs to be worked out. I'd say that all takes around 14-16M (a lot depends on Fleury and Murray)

So their core for around 56-58M looks like
Guentzel-Crosby-?
?-Malkin-Sprong
HBK
?-Sundqvist-?

Maatta-Letang
Dumoulin-?

Leaves around 15M to fill holes. Internally you have Wilson, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Sheary, Simon, Rowney to battle for 2 top 6 spots and 2 4th line spots plus a bench spot in the long-term for cheap. Jarry may also fill the backup G for cheap. That puts us around 60 to 62M, leaving 10M or more to largely fill out the defense or possibly splurge on a mid level wing (Hornqvist would be in that spot next year).

Long-winded, but I wanted to really illustrate what great shape the Pens are in moving forward. If Guentzel and Sprong become top 6 talents, this team can easily get even better than it was last year.

- Tojo.

Not that it really matters but I like the idea of Guentzel playing on Malkin's left. He could be Jussi Jokenin type player. Real smart, savvy, and underrated playmaking. Worked well with Jussi and Geno. Maybe Guentzel can do the same.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Oct 5 @ 7:02 AM ET
I love how bloggers expect teams to pay every player exactly what they are worth(based pn hero charts).
martox
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Stockholm - "Nights when we don't have our A-game, we better have our A-commitment & A-effort."
Joined: 09.25.2014

Oct 5 @ 7:27 AM ET
two thirds of his possession bubble is in the 3rd liner quadrant, almost fully if you look at 2015. Also look at his effect on expected goals both years, my analysis states he is a 2nd liner who's a defensive liability. this is why you do more than looking at a hero chart
- TheNugeIsHuge

not gonna argue that you need to do more than see a chart to evaluate a player . I usually depend on my eyes. the chart is a helping tool.
69Mach1
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Smokanagan
Joined: 10.24.2015

Oct 5 @ 7:40 AM ET
Are the penguins in the pacific now?
Oneonta Penguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.02.2007

Oct 5 @ 8:51 AM ET
Yeah, that validates the Norris comment.
- laughs2907


Dude, Schultz is still a work in progress here. However, he has played more competent in Pittsburgh then he ever did in Edmonton. Does he take the next step and play well in less sheltered minutes? That remains to be seen.

I think he learned his lesson. Taking the money grab in Edmonton was a major mistake and it cost him.
wreckage
Florida Panthers
Location: Fire Bowman., AB
Joined: 07.29.2013

Oct 5 @ 8:56 AM ET
Dude, Schultz is still a work in progress here. However, he has played more competent in Pittsburgh then he ever did in Edmonton. Does he take the next step and play well in less sheltered minutes? That remains to be seen.

I think he learned his lesson. Taking the money grab in Edmonton was a major mistake and it cost him.

- Oneonta Penguin


He's started out well in Edmonton. Looked like he may develop into a good #3 possible top pair. Then he went to the dumpster where he was one of the worst on a bad group of dmen.
rune_74
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Victoria, BC
Joined: 01.14.2007

Oct 5 @ 10:59 AM ET
You don't seem to follow western teams so how do you do a write up like this. It doesn't look like Sutter will be the 2nd line center for Vancouver, it will be Horvat.
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