There's a lot more detail needed for me to go all in on those numbers.

The reason I say that is I'd want to know the number of in close shots given up, medium range shots, and shots on the outside.

I'd want to compare that percentage to the league average and then the high end guys.

If a high end D player only allows say 20 shots against during an average game but 50% of those are in close, while another D player allows 26 shots per game, but only 30% of those are in close, how much of a difference does the 6 shots really mean, especially if the bulk of the remaining percentage are shots from the outside (which would be another percentage needed meaning league average shooting percentage from outside, medium distance, and in close).

The paragraph above is the prime example of why I want very little to do with advanced stats which watching something I'm attempting to enjoy as entertainment.

Otherwise, it will be exactly like what I do for a living, and I certainly get enough of that during a normal 60 hour work week.
- kingcong39

This is exactly why i hate adv stats writers and dont subscribe to the theory that hes bottom pairing. But he obviously has to work on this.

Derek Jedamski had the shot chart up for risto a little while ago. There's a lot of shots being given up but the bulk of these are coming from areas where unless the goalie is screened he should be making the save.

Wow, the pictures of the place are unreal.

Appreciate the advice.
- kingcong39

It's pretty awesome my 3 year old (she was 2 at the time) spent her entire meal face against the glass

One of my part time employees is a diver for Disney there. It's pretty awesome

This is exactly why i hate adv stats writers and dont subscribe to the theory that hes bottom pairing. But he obviously has to work on this.

Derek Jedamski had the shot chart up for risto a little while ago. There's a lot of shots being given up but the bulk of these are coming from areas where unless the goalie is screened he should be making the save.
- Sabresfan-365

Tanner cough cough

I like the kid as a player, a lot. But this team needs to operate as if they do not have a #1 D man.



Stephen Burtch
‏@SteveBurtch
bottom 3 NHL D by dFenwick Impact = Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Kevin Bieksa.
- sbroads24

Perhaps thats the way to look at it. Im not as panicked about it. I see a guy who clearly excels in one area to a point where he's a game changer and clearly struggles in an area where he's clearly somewhat of a liability. Having said that its not like Risto is out there just letting guys walk past him or getting bullied on the half wall. He's just not fast enough or quick enough with the stick to be among the elite shot suppression guys or among the truly elite "move the needle" guys like Karlsson.

This team would look completely different if you swapped 2 guys out and added one or two that were really good in that area.

This is exactly why i hate adv stats writers and dont subscribe to the theory that hes bottom pairing. But he obviously has to work on this.

Derek Jedamski had the shot chart up for risto a little while ago. There's a lot of shots being given up but the bulk of these are coming from areas where unless the goalie is screened he should be making the save.
- Sabresfan-365

How I feel about advanced stats is as follows:

Because they are not the norm that the league has used for the bulk of its existence, they are often championed as the more accurate measure of a quality of a player compared to the norm (points, TOI, etc.), and they are often looked at as providing a clearer picture of a player's ability. The problem is the advanced stats are not fully clarifying stats, as they should be if they are going to be shared the way they often are. Many are akin to sharing only part of the story, and sometimes only a small part at that.

If you really want to have an accurate advanced stat regarding shots against, you'd need everything I indicated in my prior post along with specific breakdowns by player regarding shooting percentage. You'd likely even need to go further and include the type of the shot the specific player is taken, i.e. backhand, forehand, slapshot, wrist shot, from each specific zone (outside, medium distance, in close), to have a true accurate picture of whether a D man giving up 26 shots a game is worse than a D man who gives up 20 simply because one number is greater than the other.

Tanner cough cough
- Stripes77

its also hardly a coincidence that the writers im thinking of are all leafs fans.

Perhaps thats the way to look at it. Im not as panicked about it. I see a guy who clearly excels in one area to a point where he's a game changer and clearly struggles in an area where he's clearly somewhat of a liability. Having said that its not like Risto is out there just letting guys walk past him or getting bullied on the half wall. He's just not fast enough or quick enough with the stick to be among the elite shot suppression guys or among the truly elite "move the needle" guys like Karlsson.

This team would look completely different if you swapped 2 guys out and added one or two that were really good in that area.
- Sabresfan-365

All that and being able to share the minutes load, from the beginning of the season all the way to the end of the season, would have to help his overall consistency.

Imagine if he were able to produce at the rate he was during the early part of the season for the entire season?

Reduce his minutes from the get go and he may be able to do that.

its also hardly a coincidence that the writers im thinking of are all leafs fans.
- Sabresfan-365

There are those that cherry pick a stat or two to make a complete determination on a player.

Then there are those that add up stats A B & C to make the clear determination on a player without realizing that A B & C are actually incomplete stats.

How I feel about advanced stats is as follows:

Because they are not the norm that the league has used for the bulk of its existence, they are often championed as the more accurate measure of a quality of a player compared to the norm (points, TOI, etc.), and they are often looked at as providing a clearer picture of a player's ability. The problem is the advanced stats are not fully clarifying stats, as they should be if they are going to be shared the way they often are. Many are akin to sharing only part of the story, and sometimes only a small part at that.

If you really want to have an accurate advanced stat regarding shots against, you'd need everything I indicated in my prior post along with specific breakdowns by player regarding shooting percentage. You'd likely even need to go further and include the type of the shot the specific player is taken, i.e. backhand, forehand, slapshot, wrist shot, from each specific zone (outside, medium distance, in close), to have a true accurate picture of whether a D man giving up 26 shots a game is worse than a D man who gives up 20 simply because one number is greater than the other.
- kingcong39

100 percent agreed. I think the movement in baseball is what sparked it here but it's really in the infancy stage at this point. It's funny, i really try to go out of my way to stop calling it "puck possession" because its literal form, the stat measuring it is literally the exact opposite.

Ive been meaning to test out a few of my own and my buddies stats this year just havent found enough time to work on it. The breakdowns would be far more specific as it'd be team based.

Wow, the pictures of the place are unreal.

Appreciate the advice.
- kingcong39

It's pretty amazing if you can get a table right on the glass (go for an early lunch of a late lunch) youre having a nice meal and these franking sharks go gliding past only two feet away. Then some scuba guy dives in and starts feeding stuff.

All that and being able to share the minutes load, from the beginning of the season all the way to the end of the season, would have to help his overall consistency.

Imagine if he were able to produce at the rate he was during the early part of the season for the entire season?

Reduce his minutes from the get go and he may be able to do that.
- kingcong39

This is why i think the big move on D should be a righty shot. Imagine being able to roll 2 pairs with some sort of consistency. Have one relied on for defence the other for offence? Reduced minutes alone would be helpful.

Last blog i posted a 5v5 shot differential chart for the season to date. you can actually see the moment where McCabe and Risto burned out

Lunch time .

My dad just sent me that there is a rumor (sources unknown) that it will be Kane for Montour or Theodore. Not sure if anyone has heard this also.
- thatsapickle

I'm chubbed.

Perhaps thats the way to look at it. Im not as panicked about it. I see a guy who clearly excels in one area to a point where he's a game changer and clearly struggles in an area where he's clearly somewhat of a liability. Having said that its not like Risto is out there just letting guys walk past him or getting bullied on the half wall. He's just not fast enough or quick enough with the stick to be among the elite shot suppression guys or among the truly elite "move the needle" guys like Karlsson.

This team would look completely different if you swapped 2 guys out and added one or two that were really good in that area.
- Sabresfan-365

CF/CA doesn't even count SOGs, right? So who cares how many shots against there are if they're not even on net...

There are those that cherry pick a stat or two to make a complete determination on a player.

Then there are those that add up stats A B & C to make the clear determination on a player without realizing that A B & C are actually incomplete stats.
- kingcong39

it's worse now. Some are coming up with stat D and just telling people its an accurate and tailored regression model for evaluative ratings. My favourite part was when it was rejected outright by a sports analytics journal

CF/CA doesn't even count SOGs, right? So who cares how many shots against there are if they're not even on net...
- stashu

Their just nerds that wanted to bring something to the game. How many of them actually play or played the game ?

CF/CA doesn't even count SOGs, right? So who cares how many shots against there are if they're not even on net...
- stashu

You care because in theory if the CA is way higher than the CF it means the puck is spending most of its time on the other teams stick and in our end when said player is on the ice.

Their just nerds that wanted to bring something to the game. How many of them actually play or played the game ?
- cabin

As a card carrying member, I object to the generalization!

As a card carrying member, I object to the generalization!
- stashu

As a card carrying member, I object to the generalization!
- stashu

- Stripes77

How I feel about advanced stats is as follows:

Because they are not the norm that the league has used for the bulk of its existence, they are often championed as the more accurate measure of a quality of a player compared to the norm (points, TOI, etc.), and they are often looked at as providing a clearer picture of a player's ability. The problem is the advanced stats are not fully clarifying stats, as they should be if they are going to be shared the way they often are. Many are akin to sharing only part of the story, and sometimes only a small part at that.

If you really want to have an accurate advanced stat regarding shots against, you'd need everything I indicated in my prior post along with specific breakdowns by player regarding shooting percentage. You'd likely even need to go further and include the type of the shot the specific player is taken, i.e. backhand, forehand, slapshot, wrist shot, from each specific zone (outside, medium distance, in close), to have a true accurate picture of whether a D man giving up 26 shots a game is worse than a D man who gives up 20 simply because one number is greater than the other.
- kingcong39

That's taking it to sort of an extreme. There is still a human element to the game that no one denies.

All that advanced stats attempt to do is eliminate confirmation bias and open up lines of thought that wouldn't exist.

To be quite honest, if I told you Ristolainen had great underlying numbers, people would eat it up because that's what their eyes tell them. The only time they are debated is when they don't match up with what you see.

How about:

Anaheim: Kane, Girgs
Buffalo: Fowler, Montour, Theodore, Ana 1st round pick.

That would be a great haul for us and solidify our D.

That's taking it to sort of an extreme. There is still a human element to the game that no one denies.

All that advanced stats attempt to do is eliminate confirmation bias and open up lines of thought that wouldn't exist.

To be quite honest, if I told you Ristolainen had great underlying numbers, people would eat it up because that's what their eyes tell them. The only time they are debated is when they don't match up with what you see.
- sbroads24

I could care less what any player's underlying numbers are, really, because I watch the game to be entertained and not as a statistical entity that I must breakdown.

If I were to look at as a statistical entity that must be broken down, every game would take me roughly 5 hours to watch, or more.

Yes, it is taken to an extreme, but if I want a stat, I want it to be as accurate as possible and not be a sort of more defined generality which is what many seem to be.

You care because in theory if the CA is way higher than the CF it means the puck is spending most of its time on the other teams stick and in our end when said player is on the ice.
- Sabresfan-365

But time on attack does the same thing, but with more accuracy.