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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Looking at the first round
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kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 10 @ 3:23 PM ET
Or, I don't know, an offside challenge...
- pdx2ord


teh_HAWKZ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.03.2012

Apr 10 @ 3:37 PM ET
The 2010 Hawks didn't even smoke a MUCH inferior Predators team. This wont be easy. The Preds forwards are certainly not as deep, but they have 2 legit lines and do have a nice blueline. Goalies are a wildcard. You mostly don't know what you are getting.

It's laughable to think this Hawks team will roll over them. What is the last team the Hawks "rolled over"? Not counting Minnesota (snicker) you'd have to go way back in time. These are two very good teams playing in the NHL playoff hockey. This isn't other sports, the playoffs are a big bag of who knows....Preds are a good team, two great lines, and can go 5 solid on their blueline...Rinne usually doesn't scare the Hawks, but freaking Brian Elliott was not scary last year either was he?

- kwolf68


If you're talking strictly swept, then yes Minnie in '15 and San Jose in '10. But you can also make an argument for Minnie in '13 and LA in '13. Both won in 5 games. LA was tougher/closer, but good teams find ways to win those close games.

Also Elliott uncharacteristically played out of his mind last year. Rinne hasn't been in form since 2014. Can he tighten things up for this series? Sure. I mean Elliott did last year. But IMO I just don't see the Preds as big of a threat.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 3:59 PM ET
The 2010 Hawks didn't even smoke a MUCH inferior Predators team. This wont be easy. The Preds forwards are certainly not as deep, but they have 2 legit lines and do have a nice blueline. Goalies are a wildcard. You mostly don't know what you are getting.

It's laughable to think this Hawks team will roll over them. What is the last team the Hawks "rolled over"? Not counting Minnesota (snicker) you'd have to go way back in time. These are two very good teams playing in the NHL playoff hockey. This isn't other sports, the playoffs are a big bag of who knows....Preds are a good team, two great lines, and can go 5 solid on their blueline...Rinne usually doesn't scare the Hawks, but freaking Brian Elliott was not scary last year either was he?

- kwolf68


Nah. It is a realistic expectation that the Hawks should roll over them. The only proven player who can put up points is Forsberg and he isn't nearly as fast as Tarasenko. Hossa eats him alive.

The Hawks, for as much as we complain about it, are much better on the blue line than the Preds. The preds have a top pairing then two third pairings on the blue line.

Brian Elliot wasn't necessarily the problem last year. Being able to roll more than 3 NHL defenders and more than two lines was kind of an issue. Both problems being addressed this year, Hawks beat them and probably in 5 because they're better on numerous levels.

The Predators are a constantly overrated team and this is probably the best matchup the hawks could have hoped for.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 10 @ 4:05 PM ET
If you're talking strictly swept, then yes Minnie in '15 and San Jose in '10. But you can also make an argument for Minnie in '13 and LA in '13. Both won in 5 games. LA was tougher/closer, but good teams find ways to win those close games.

Also Elliott uncharacteristically played out of his mind last year. Rinne hasn't been in form since 2014. Can he tighten things up for this series? Sure. I mean Elliott did last year. But IMO I just don't see the Preds as big of a threat.

- teh_HAWKZ


Let me take a different tact.

If I am a Preds fan I have to believe we (preds) can win this series. Why?

Special teams-In the playoffs things are so tight special teams become even more prominent. The Hawks are comically bad on ST

Faceoffs-Another area where the Hawks are not just average, but well below. Other than Toews, they can't win draws consistently enough. During the season not a huge deal, but as things tighten in the playoffs there is an advantage

While neither 4th line is going to score much, the Hawks do have a decided advantage on Line 3. The line of Kruger/Hossa/Hartman is tremendous, especially slotted there. Huge advantage to Chicago, but the Predators have 3 offensive-impacting defensemen that can maybe negate this advantage the Hawks have on their forward group.

Goalies-advantage Chicago. Crawford is a 2-time Cup champion and is solid as a rock. Rinne can be great, but can also be subpar. Anything less than Rinne playing at least on part with Crawford and the Hawks win this series.

However, IF Rinne can play man to man to Crawford then the advantages the Predators do have (such as special teams) could become a prominent factor.

Overall, everyone should pick the Hawks in 6. But if things fall right, Predators could take it in 7. That would mean a win on Chicago ice in a clinching game. Not far-fetched. St. Louis did it last year, LA did it in 2014.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 10 @ 4:14 PM ET
BTW-YES I think the Hawks are the better hockey team than Nashville. Absolutely. But there are plenty of examples of inferior hockey teams beating better ones?

So any OLD SCHOOL Hawks fans interested in discussing how the Presidents Trophy Blackhawks of 1991 lost to the 8th seeded North Stars?

I am just saying slow your roll. I thought the 1991 team was poised for a Cup run and then badly chit the bed in round 1.
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Apr 10 @ 4:18 PM ET
Or, I don't know, an offside challenge...
- pdx2ord


LOL...good one.

I can already see a series turning completely after a goal is overturned when a skate blade is determined to be a millimeter off the ice.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 10 @ 4:21 PM ET
LOL...good one.

I can already see a series turning completely after a goal is overturned when a skate blade is determined to be a millimeter off the ice.

- ArlingtonRob


Thanks for reminding me of something very important:

**Goto ABC store Thursday afternoon**
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Apr 10 @ 4:25 PM ET
BTW-YES I think the Hawks are the better hockey team than Nashville. Absolutely. But there are plenty of examples of inferior hockey teams beating better ones?

So any OLD SCHOOL Hawks fans interested in discussing how the Presidents Trophy Blackhawks of 1991 lost to the 8th seeded North Stars?

I am just saying slow your roll. I thought the 1991 team was poised for a Cup run and then badly chit the bed in round 1.

- kwolf68


Not really...unless you care to rehash the '71 final, and then perhaps Arthur Wirtz and the WHA.
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Apr 10 @ 4:26 PM ET
Thanks for reminding me of something very important:

**Goto ABC store Thursday afternoon**

- kwolf68


This must be a Pennsylvania thing...

State Run Liquor Store perhaps?
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 10 @ 4:33 PM ET
Not really...unless you care to rehash the '71 final, and then perhaps Arthur Wirtz and the WHA.
- ArlingtonRob


Meanwhile lets rehash the Esposito and Hasek trades. Early 70s before my time, but there is probably another cup on the mantle if they don't move Phil? Late 80s/early 90s Hawks were my era. Really no chance in 89 and 90s wc finals against Flame and Oil and the 91 and 92 Penguins were really great. Doubt the Hawks woulda won in 91...too much meathead hockey (they were meatheads, but they were our meatheads). I remember the Hawks were ALWAYS on the PK back then, but they were damn good at killing penalties...they had to be. Had the 1991 Hawks had this PK they may have gone 0-82. LOL
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Apr 10 @ 4:34 PM ET
LOL...good one.

I can already see a series turning completely after a goal is overturned when a skate blade is determined to be a millimeter off the ice.

- ArlingtonRob


But - that's the rule - blade has to be on the blue line, not above it.

Let's not give the ref's any more judgment calls - let's instead make them follow the rule as it is written.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 10 @ 4:34 PM ET
This must be a Pennsylvania thing...

State Run Liquor Store perhaps?

- ArlingtonRob



Yep...state run. Although they are letting grocers sell wine and beer now. But for the hard stuff gotta go get it from the man. And for the playoffs, may need something with a bit more snap.
CanOCorn
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: The OP, IL
Joined: 04.03.2013

Apr 10 @ 4:42 PM ET
Let me take a different tact.

If I am a Preds fan I have to believe we (preds) can win this series. Why?

Special teams-In the playoffs things are so tight special teams become even more prominent. The Hawks are comically bad on ST

Faceoffs-Another area where the Hawks are not just average, but well below. Other than Toews, they can't win draws consistently enough. During the season not a huge deal, but as things tighten in the playoffs there is an advantage

While neither 4th line is going to score much, the Hawks do have a decided advantage on Line 3. The line of Kruger/Hossa/Hartman is tremendous, especially slotted there. Huge advantage to Chicago, but the Predators have 3 offensive-impacting defensemen that can maybe negate this advantage the Hawks have on their forward group.

Goalies-advantage Chicago. Crawford is a 2-time Cup champion and is solid as a rock. Rinne can be great, but can also be subpar. Anything less than Rinne playing at least on part with Crawford and the Hawks win this series.

However, IF Rinne can play man to man to Crawford then the advantages the Predators do have (such as special teams) could become a prominent factor.

Overall, everyone should pick the Hawks in 6. But if things fall right, Predators could take it in 7. That would mean a win on Chicago ice in a clinching game. Not far-fetched. St. Louis did it last year, LA did it in 2014.

- kwolf68


This series, to me, rests on the shoulders of the rookies. If Hartman can stay out of the box...if Schmaltz can continue to win his board battles...if Kero can continue his good defense...I think we'll be ok and win in 5. There are 3 lines that can score. There are 3 solid defensive pairs with depth behind them.

But, I wouldn't be surprised if they won in 6 because that's what Q coached teams hae done...feel out a team for the first 4 games and then jump on their weaknesses.
Hank_Greenberg
Joined: 09.30.2015

Apr 10 @ 4:44 PM ET
Let me take a different tact.

If I am a Preds fan I have to believe we (preds) can win this series. Why?

Special teams-In the playoffs things are so tight special teams become even more prominent. The Hawks are comically bad on ST

Faceoffs-Another area where the Hawks are not just average, but well below. Other than Toews, they can't win draws consistently enough. During the season not a huge deal, but as things tighten in the playoffs there is an advantage

While neither 4th line is going to score much, the Hawks do have a decided advantage on Line 3. The line of Kruger/Hossa/Hartman is tremendous, especially slotted there. Huge advantage to Chicago, but the Predators have 3 offensive-impacting defensemen that can maybe negate this advantage the Hawks have on their forward group.

Goalies-advantage Chicago. Crawford is a 2-time Cup champion and is solid as a rock. Rinne can be great, but can also be subpar. Anything less than Rinne playing at least on part with Crawford and the Hawks win this series.

However, IF Rinne can play man to man to Crawford then the advantages the Predators do have (such as special teams) could become a prominent factor.

Overall, everyone should pick the Hawks in 6. But if things fall right, Predators could take it in 7. That would mean a win on Chicago ice in a clinching game. Not far-fetched. St. Louis did it last year, LA did it in 2014.

- kwolf68


Wolfie, I'm pretty sure last year's game 7 was in St. Louis.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 10 @ 4:50 PM ET
It's not "Preds love", it's that they have a good hockey team and the Blackhawks are not so much better. It's going to be a tight series. Bookmark these game 5 predictions. I will say this...IF the Hawks can beat them in 5, I think they play for the Cup (maybe not win it, but will get there).
- kwolf68


I guess I put a lot if weight in those 14 games the Hawks went 12-2 and the 2 losses were when they had to many days off. The Hawks to my eye dominated 9 of those games AA, Nik, Oduya also miss some of those games.

All that matters is Hawks win the series and stay healthy, but it would be nice if they could do it in 4 or 5 games

Oh and by the way Preds record 8-8 vs playoff teams
teh_HAWKZ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.03.2012

Apr 10 @ 4:54 PM ET
Let me take a different tact.

If I am a Preds fan I have to believe we (preds) can win this series. Why?

Special teams-In the playoffs things are so tight special teams become even more prominent. The Hawks are comically bad on ST

Faceoffs-Another area where the Hawks are not just average, but well below. Other than Toews, they can't win draws consistently enough. During the season not a huge deal, but as things tighten in the playoffs there is an advantage

While neither 4th line is going to score much, the Hawks do have a decided advantage on Line 3. The line of Kruger/Hossa/Hartman is tremendous, especially slotted there. Huge advantage to Chicago, but the Predators have 3 offensive-impacting defensemen that can maybe negate this advantage the Hawks have on their forward group.

Goalies-advantage Chicago. Crawford is a 2-time Cup champion and is solid as a rock. Rinne can be great, but can also be subpar. Anything less than Rinne playing at least on part with Crawford and the Hawks win this series.

However, IF Rinne can play man to man to Crawford then the advantages the Predators do have (such as special teams) could become a prominent factor.

Overall, everyone should pick the Hawks in 6. But if things fall right, Predators could take it in 7. That would mean a win on Chicago ice in a clinching game. Not far-fetched. St. Louis did it last year, LA did it in 2014.

- kwolf68


Just to play devil's advocate with you:

- Hawks PP in the regular season has always been crap except that year where they had that dumb Sharp backdoor play. Even in 2010 their PP% in the regular season was 17%, 16% in '13, and 17% again in '15. Yet at least in 2010 and 2015 the PP improved vastly during the playoffs. Same thing can happen now.

- Aside from the 2015 Cup run the Hawks have always been weak down the middle.

- That's also a pretty big IF. Rinne's playoff numbers are .912 SVP and .252 GAA. Aside from 2012 he's been average/below average come playoff time.

Again, I am not saying this series will be a cake walk. But what I am saying is Preds aren't as scary as some may think.
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Apr 10 @ 4:58 PM ET
BTW-YES I think the Hawks are the better hockey team than Nashville. Absolutely. But there are plenty of examples of inferior hockey teams beating better ones?

So any OLD SCHOOL Hawks fans interested in discussing how the Presidents Trophy Blackhawks of 1991 lost to the 8th seeded North Stars?

I am just saying slow your roll. I thought the 1991 team was poised for a Cup run and then badly chit the bed in round 1.

- kwolf68


This times 1000000....anything can happen in the playoffs....That is why nothing surprises me, this isn't the NBA where the 1 and 2 seeds are basically automatic...and in an odd way that is what makes the NHL and the Stanley Cup Playoffs the best playoffs of any sport out there...it is a nerve wrecking great time
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 10 @ 5:01 PM ET
I also know a series comes down to match ups, someone please show me where the Preds have an advantage?
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Apr 10 @ 5:07 PM ET
I also know a series comes down to match ups, someone please show me where the Preds have an advantage?
- BetweenTheDots


Cap space
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 10 @ 5:12 PM ET
Cap space
- BlazinMike


Thanks for the laugh, you got me there.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 10 @ 5:32 PM ET
I also know a series comes down to match ups, someone please show me where the Preds have an advantage?
- BetweenTheDots


It can be tough to quantify in only 7 games because it matters who is hot and who is not, but the Preds have decent scoring ability from their D (better than the Hawks when it comes to scoring goals) and just more spread out scoring depth in general.

i.e Hawks have 6 20+ goal scorers and Hartman put up 19, but after that everyone has 6 or 5 goals pretty much.

The Preds only had 3 guys break 20 goals but they have a lot of guys that scored between 10-20 goals.

On paper the Preds have more scoring depth at the bottom end of their roster, while the Hawks have a more potent top 6. That could work to the Preds advantage if they can shutdown the Hawks top guns.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 10 @ 5:50 PM ET
I also know a series comes down to match ups, someone please show me where the Preds have an advantage?
- BetweenTheDots



From The Hockey News

DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 10 @ 5:51 PM ET
I also know a series comes down to match ups, someone please show me where the Preds have an advantage?
- BetweenTheDots



Also....

Chicago: 18.0 PP% (19th), 77.7 PK% (25th), 240 GF (8th), 212 GA (11th)

Nashville: 18.9 PP% (16th), 80.9 PK% (15th), 238 GF (9th), 220 GA (15th)


Edit: Adding face offs

Nashville 51.4% (8th)
Chicago: 47.5% (29th)
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Apr 10 @ 6:29 PM ET
Also....

Edit: Adding face offs

Nashville 51.4% (8th)
Chicago: 47.5% (29th)

- DarthKane


AA has to get better at the dot. I was hoping Stan would go get Vermette this offseason and Boyle would've been a nice FO add at the DL but a las here we are. Think we won 2013 without a solid FO% though IIRC. Zeus was nothing special and/or perhaps worse than AA at the dot. Krugs is better than his numbers show when he's healthy so we'll see how the cookie crumbles.
dahawks8819
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 10.29.2014

Apr 10 @ 6:33 PM ET
Also....

Chicago: 18.0 PP% (19th), 77.7 PK% (25th), 240 GF (8th), 212 GA (11th)

Nashville: 18.9 PP% (16th), 80.9 PK% (15th), 238 GF (9th), 220 GA (15th)


Edit: Adding face offs

Nashville 51.4% (8th)
Chicago: 47.5% (29th)

- DarthKane


I want to put the face-off argument into perspective here....

Over the course of the season, Nashville is about 4 percent better at winning face-offs.

On average, if 50 face-offs take place per game, that would equate to Nashville winning 2 more per game.

In my book, that equates to no distinct advantage.
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