Yes, the Bruins are really good. Tukka Rask was bad for a while. That's why they didn't win a ton.

They generate shots AND scoring chances at a top 5 rate.
- sbroads24

And they WIN at a middle of the road rate,
regardless of the reason

Nothing to say Rask will ever again be a Vezina caliber goalie...
he's been average (at best) for the last 2 seasons now
Now that Chara isn't a beast anymore, Rask has been exposed

Wins matter more than analytics bud
A LOT more

13th-18th is NOT a team that's "REALLY" good
It's a borderline playoff team...
Which is exactly what Boston is

I'll check it out. And, it's nice to see us in a positive position for once instead of being the one to be screwed. This team can look so much different come October, I hope Murray doesn't (frank) things up.
- sskkoo1

It's also probably not as easy as I make it sound
But we do have plenty of open slots where we can really take advantage of teams getting screwed by the draft

And they WIN at a middle of the road rate,
regardless of the reason

Nothing to say Rask will ever again be a Vezina caliber goalie...
he's been average (at best) for the last 2 seasons now
Now that Chara isn't a beast anymore, Rask has been exposed

Wins matter more than analytics bud
A LOT more
- jdfitz77

6th best goal differential this season at +22
2nd best Corsi for %
29th in PDO. Which means they were the 2nd worst team in terms of luck.

Sometimes teams get unlucky bounces. Boston got unlucky bounces this year.

6th best goal differential this season at +22
2nd best Corsi for %
29th in PDO. Which means they were the 2nd worst team in terms of luck.

Sometimes teams get unlucky bounces. Boston got unlucky bounces this year.
- sbroads24

So what is it?
Rask was bad? Or they were unlucky?


And enough "bad luck" that they finished ONLY 1 point better than 18th
Sorry...
your stats don't hold up
not in this case

So what is it?
Rask was bad? Or they were unlucky?


And enough "bad luck" that they finished ONLY 1 point better than 18th
Sorry...
your stats don't hold up
not in this case
- jdfitz77

Jesus Christ you're like a little kid.

So by your logic, Minnesota should beat St. Louis because they were better in the standings and luck doesn't exist? Remember when an 8 seed who people thought were a lot better than their record won one of their first 2 cups?

Washington won the Presidents trophy last year, must have been hands down the best team and won the cup.

Jesus Christ you're like a little kid.

So by your logic, Minnesota should beat St. Louis because they were better in the standings and luck doesn't exist? Remember when an 8 seed who people thought were a lot better than their record won one of their first 2 cups?

Washington won the Presidents trophy last year, must have been hands down the best team and won the cup.
- sbroads24

Scoreboard

Jesus Christ you're like a little kid.

So by your logic, Minnesota should beat St. Louis because they were better in the standings and luck doesn't exist? Remember when an 8 seed who people thought were a lot better than their record won one of their first 2 cups?

Washington won the Presidents trophy last year, must have been hands down the best team and won the cup.
- sbroads24

Minnesota better not beat St. Louis, we own their 2nd round pick.

Scoreboard
- jdfitz77

Yep, kid was right

Jesus Christ you're like a little kid.

So by your logic, Minnesota should beat St. Louis because they were better in the standings and luck doesn't exist? Remember when an 8 seed who people thought were a lot better than their record won one of their first 2 cups?

Washington won the Presidents trophy last year, must have been hands down the best team and won the cup.
- sbroads24

By my logic...
one of the ACTUAL "really good" teams will win the Cup
NOT BOSTON

An 8seed won the Cup ONCE
That's an abarrition, not the norm
Also... LA drastically changed the makeup of their team that season by acquiring help scoring... which they severely lacked
They were a different team in that respect

Boston has been the same team all year

And while you want to use reasoning such as "bad luck"
I'll use the actual bottom line,
which is their record

But keep using your fancy stats to tell everyone how
Boston is REALLY GOOD
and Chicago will "miss the playoffs"

Your credibility is shot sir

By my logic...
one of the ACTUAL "really good" teams will win the Cup
NOT BOSTON

An 8seed won the Cup ONCE
That's an abarrition, not the norm
Also... LA drastically changed the makeup of their team that season by acquiring help scoring... which they severely lacked
They were a different team in that respect

Boston has been the same team all year

And while you want to use reasoning such as "bad luck"
I'll use the actual bottom line,
which is their record

But keep using your fancy stats to tell everyone how
Boston is REALLY GOOD
and Chicago will "miss the playoffs"

Your credibility is shot sir
- jdfitz77

"Sam Reinhart will have 60 points this year"

-JDFitz.

Man, I can play this game too

Yep, kid was right
- sbroads24

Even if Boston wins this round,
They still aren't "really" good

They'll simply be a 13 that got fortunate to play a 12
Bruins are super "lucky" that the Leafs didn't get a point on that last day

"Really" good teams imo are those who have a legit shot to win the Cup
Do u actually think Boston does?

"Sam Reinhart will have 60 points this year"

-JDFitz.

Man, I can play this game too
- sbroads24

Misprojecting ONE player is much different than screwing up a projection on an entire team...
true or false?

And did I even say that?
Not so sure I did

Even if Boston wins this round,
They still aren't "really" good

They'll simply be a 13 that got fortunate to play a 12
Bruins are super "lucky" that the Leafs didn't get a point on that last day

"Really" good teams imo are those who have a legit shot to win the Cup
Do u actually think Boston does?
- jdfitz77

Yes, Boston has a legit shot .

They literally had a 4 goal difference from Montreal this year. They were a plus 22, Montreal was a plus 26.

I honestly don't care whether they win or not, but they are an example of a team who's better than their record shows. Absolutely

Misprojecting ONE player is much different than screwing up a projection on an entire team...
true or false?

And did I even say that?
Not so sure I did
- jdfitz77

Oh I'm sure. It was right in the season preview blog 365 posted the other day.

You and Stripes, 2 people who love to call me out for being wrong were projecting big things for Sam

Even if Boston wins this round,
They still aren't "really" good

They'll simply be a 13 that got fortunate to play a 12
Bruins are super "lucky" that the Leafs didn't get a point on that last day

"Really" good teams imo are those who have a legit shot to win the Cup
Do u actually think Boston does?
- jdfitz77

I think Boston is lucky in how their picks are turning out, Carlo, McAvoy, Pastrnak, and that's not even counting all 3 first round picks in 2015. It's more than just good development.

Boston tied for 10th in wins. Didn't get the loser points a few teams ahead of them got

Yes, Boston has a legit shot .

They literally had a 4 goal difference from Montreal this year. They were a plus 22, Montreal was a plus 26.

I honestly don't care whether they win or not, but they are an example of a team who's better than their record shows. Absolutely
- sbroads24

How many "really" good teams do u think there are?

And Boston had pretty much ZERO chance to win the Cup
If all their stats are so good...
why don't they have a better record?

Stats lie all the time when it comes to actual wins & losses
U can't simplify it so much in real life
There's way too many things that determine wins/losses that your stats can't account for, except in a generally broad sense

Is Boston closer to how good Montreal is than a team that missed the playoffs?
Maybe u can make that case

But are they "really" good like the Caps, Pens, Hawks, etc?
No freaking way
Not a chance

Oh I'm sure. It was right in the season preview blog 365 posted the other day.

You and Stripes, 2 people who love to call me out for being wrong were projecting big things for Sam
- sbroads24

Ok...
I'm not gonna say he didn't have a disappoint season
60 points would've been reasonable for someone to say
Never said I was perfect
But do u say Sam would get less than 50 points?
Did anyone?

Bc when u said the Hawks would miss the playoffs i said u were nuts & we made a bet...
I'm guessing if u thought I was so wrong about my projection for Sam,
You'd have bet me
Since u didn't...
I'm gonna say u didn't think my projection was far off

How many "really" good teams do u think there are?

And Boston had pretty much ZERO chance to win the Cup
If all their stats are so good...
why don't they have a better record?

Stats lie all the time when it comes to actual wins & losses
U can't simplify it so much in real life
There's way too many things that determine wins/losses that your stats can't account for, except in a generally broad sense

Is Boston closer to how good Montreal is than a team that missed the playoffs?
Maybe u can make that case

But are they "really" good like the Caps, Pens, Hawks, etc?
No freaking way
Not a chance
- jdfitz77

I said they were really good still. I didn't say they were great or the best team in the NHL.

I still don't think the Hawks are that great anymore either. They won the most 1 goal games of any team in the league, which means everyone played them pretty close.

They are obviously better than I thought they'd be, but I don't think they're as good as their record.

Ok...
I'm not gonna say he didn't have a disappoint season
60 points would've been reasonable for someone to say
Never said I was perfect
But do u say Sam would get less than 50 points?
Did anyone?

Bc when u said the Hawks would miss the playoffs i said u were nuts & we made a bet...
I'm guessing if u thought I was so wrong about my projection for Sam,
You'd have bet me
Since u didn't...
I'm gonna say u didn't think my projection was far off
- jdfitz77

Do you think it's fair to say that Eichel getting hurt effected his point total?

Boston tied for 10th in wins. Didn't get the loser points a few teams ahead of them got
- sbroads24

Yet, they were ONLY 1 point better than 18th

Let me put it this way...

MOST will be a lot more surprised if Boston wins the Cup this year,
Than if they lose in the 1st round...
or even miss the playoffs altogether next year

Do you think it's fair to say that Eichel getting hurt effected his point total?
- sbroads24

I think that's something i'd reasonably consider making sense
Then you'd probably point out that his ppg was roughly the same regardless
Then I'd say there's a lot of other factors that go into it
For example...
With Jack & Kane out, teams could focus more to hold Sam back
I'll bet u could find fancy stats to prove that

Or u could say he should've scored more with added opportunity with those guys outta the lineup

But I bet u could also find stats that should say Reinhart should've done better later in the year when we were scoring more

U can twist stats to fit your point of view,
Whatever it is

Yet, they were ONLY 1 point better than 18th

Let me put it this way...

MOST will be a lot more surprised if Boston wins the Cup this year,
Than if they lose in the 1st round...
or even miss the playoffs altogether next year
- jdfitz77

I think most would be surprised if they won. Because they weren't the best team in the league.

I think that's something you'd reasonably consider
Then you'd probably point out that his ppg was roughly the same regardless
Then I'd say there's a lot of other factors that go into it
For example...
With Jack & Kane out, teams could focus more to hold Sam back
I'll bet u could find fancy stats to prove that
But I bet u could also find stats that should say Reinhart should've done better later in the year when we were scoring more

U can twist stats to fit your point of view,
Whatever it is
- jdfitz77

No, my point is that an instance of bad luck (Eichel getting hurt) maybe effected Sam Reinhart's results, despite him playing a certain way all season.

No, my point is that an instance of bad luck (Eichel getting hurt) maybe effected Sam Reinhart's results, despite him playing a certain way all season.
- sbroads24

And my point is that even though that makes TONS of sense...
I bet u could find stats that say otherwise

Stats can (and usually are) twisted to fit a certain narrative

But stats can not, and do not, tell 100% of the story