Can you admit that there is another career arc for the guy besides "only going to improve"?
I understand you're hyped up about your guy but it is possible you've seen the best of him already and he never plays to this level again. Everyone, including myself, has had prospect bias and thinks that their team's prospects will trend perfectly but the fact is that probably won't happen for majority of your rookies & prospects, even the ones that your Leafs had such a good time watching this year. - Phatjohnsn
Fair points, but I was responding to one poster's comment:
"I have a hard time believing Zaitsev will maintain this play for 7 years."
Given the typical development arc and timeline for D around the league, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Zaitsev at 25 yrs old (or any other D) won't continue to develop and improve, especially given that this was his first full season in the league.
There are even a couple other posters that agree... Approximately 28-32 is roughly the time D reach their full maturity. It's scary to think what elite D like Karlsson and Hedman could become in the next few years given that they're only 26. I also believe that Risto is on the same (maybe not quite Karlsson) trajectory and he's only 22yrs.
Fair points, but I was responding to one poster's comment:
"I have a hard time believing Zaitsev will maintain this play for 7 years."
Given the typical development arc and timeline for D around the league, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Zaitsev at 25 yrs old (or any other D) won't continue to develop and improve, especially given that this was his first full season in the league.
There are even a couple other posters that agree... Approximately 28-32 is roughly the time D reach their full maturity. It's scary to think what elite D like Karlsson and Hedman could become in the next few years given that they're only 26. I also believe that Risto is on the same (maybe not quite Karlsson) trajectory and he's only 22yrs. - As_I_See_It
This seems to say 29 is the magic number for defenders, but also that they improve/decline at a slower rate than forwards. Also that elite players decline at a much slower rate as well.
Fair points, but I was responding to one poster's comment:
"I have a hard time believing Zaitsev will maintain this play for 7 years."
Given the typical development arc and timeline for D around the league, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Zaitsev at 25 yrs old (or any other D) won't continue to develop and improve, especially given that this was his first full season in the league.
There are even a couple other posters that agree... Approximately 28-32 is roughly the time D reach their full maturity. It's scary to think what elite D like Karlsson and Hedman could become in the next few years given that they're only 26. I also believe that Risto is on the same (maybe not quite Karlsson) trajectory and he's only 22yrs. - As_I_See_It
I understand and agree with all this. I also happen to agree that he will most likely improve - the 'unknown' is what his ceiling is. Secondarily, can he reach said ceiling or how close can he come? I think he has overplayed expectations (at least imo) so that makes all of this much more interesting.
I made the comment yesterday that the Sabres once had a giraffe win the Calder and never take a significant step afterwards. It happens all the time that guys overacheive and then something happens where they just don't ever elevate.
Some players think 1 good season cements them as a good NHLer and don't put in the work to be better (see Myers, Tyler or Bogosian, Zach). Some guys get injured and never overcome it (Tim Connolly and maybe Tyler Ennis?). Some guys lose their way due to disagreements with GMs/coaches/teammates and then find it again later (E Kane).
There is so much more that goes into it whereas some of us treat it like its EA Sports NHL where they always will improve until they get old and start to level off and then decline.
Is there a McDavid in next year's draft? What about for the next decade after that? Maybe we can get one of those kids. Gonna start scouting the Squirt group for when we're good.
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA Joined: 02.11.2009
Apr 18 @ 12:29 PM ET
Is there a McDavid in next year's draft? What about for the next decade after that? Maybe we can get one of those kids. Gonna start scouting the Squirt group for when we're good. - RhinoFan
There won't be another Connor McDavid until gerbe jr is born and hits puberty
But the draft next year is pretty good in talent-wise I would say it's like the 2016 draft
Svechnikov , Dahlin.
Veleno ,Tkachuk etc
But I doubt we'll get any of them lol I would rather be top 5 and next year's draft then this one but oh well
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes Joined: 07.01.2007
Apr 18 @ 12:37 PM ET
I know no one's going to care but I do how does Pittsburgh keep finding these good players
Now you have jake Guentzel another 3rd round pick gem
- GERBE!!!75PTS
When you have a core like they do, it's easier to find guys like Guentzel and just plug them in. If Jake Guentzel was in Buffalo's top 6, we would be talking about how the team needs an upgrade. And it would.
When you have a core like they do, it's easier to find guys like Guentzel and just plug them in. If Jake Guentzel was in Buffalo's top 6, we would be talking about how the team needs an upgrade. And it would. - buffalofan19
i agree with your premise but not sure this specifically is true. right now the 6th spot is who foligno? Think Guentzels numbers would look good next to eichel. These kinds of players can make wingers appear better than they are, provided they can keep up (mentally and phsyically). Guentzel can, foligno can't. We need to find someone who can.
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA Joined: 02.11.2009
Apr 18 @ 12:43 PM ET
When you have a core like they do, it's easier to find guys like Guentzel and just plug them in. If Jake Guentzel was in Buffalo's top 6, we would be talking about how the team needs an upgrade. And it would. - buffalofan19
That's somewhat true but I think he has a higher upside than some of our bottom forwards and maybe he can produce the same way with Jack
I don't think he can go straight to the AHL so he might have to play the Q.
Either way he needs some time. Even Patrick. These guys need to be back with their clubs next season. - DDM-Coga
Agreed I've been reading the draft reports and some of this year's top picks have the size, just not ready yet but that's ok they'll be great when they do!
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes Joined: 07.01.2007
Apr 18 @ 12:52 PM ET
i agree with your premise but not sure this specifically is true. right now the 6th spot is who foligno? Think Guentzels numbers would look good next to eichel. These kinds of players can make wingers appear better than they are, provided they can keep up (mentally and phsyically). Guentzel can, foligno can't. We need to find someone who can. - Sabresfan-365
Agreed, but the point is there are plenty of Jake Guentzel's out there. They're not rare by any means. With players like that, it's much more about fit than it is talent.
