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Forums :: Blog World :: Todd Cordell: More thoughts on Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier
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MannySilvers
New Jersey Devils
Location: ROCK LAND, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

May 2 @ 2:04 PM ET
Ohh I'd love to move Zajac and go with Zacha, McLeod and this year's pack lined up down the middle. Won't happen, but I can dream.
- jersey1414


I think we're being way too high on our youth immediately making an impact if we go with Patrick/Hischier - Zacha - McLeod up the middle.
jersey1414
Joined: 05.10.2013

May 2 @ 2:11 PM ET
I think we're being way too high on our youth immediately making an impact if we go with Patrick/Hischier - Zacha - McLeod up the middle.
- MannySilvers


I'm not saying next year. I'm not that naive. But I don't think it's out of the question. McLeod would probably be the wildcard there.

I'm just not a big Zajac guy. If he made less money and was a 3C I'd be fine with it, but IMO he's been misused and overpaid for years now.
MannySilvers
New Jersey Devils
Location: ROCK LAND, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

May 2 @ 2:21 PM ET
I'm not saying next year. I'm not that naive. But I don't think it's out of the question. McLeod would probably be the wildcard there.

I'm just not a big Zajac guy. If he made less money and was a 3C I'd be fine with it, but IMO he's been misused and overpaid for years now.

- jersey1414


Zajac is paid too much but is otherwise a very solid player. With our cap situation the fact that he's paid too much doesn't really matter at the moment.
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

May 2 @ 2:26 PM ET
@jersey1414

What is wrong with Zajac? Misused? 14 goals, 45 points. Zacha 8 goals, 24 points. Mcleod is an unknown and Patrick/Hisheir should start on the third line to break them into the league. Mcleod may not even be on the team next year.

What is so wrong with letting prospects develop properly? It took half a season for Zacha to even look promising.

Zajac has four years left, which means, Pat/His contract will end just before that in order to be resigned and he'll have 1 year left. Unless Patrick/Hishier, Zacha, and Mcleod can show that they should be in the NHL and can produce regularly, then and ONLY then should they look to trade him. Zacha may also become a winger.

Also, Zajac isn't hindering any moves that are possible to make. I can't wait when Henrique is making 6 mil for 40 points, and hope that everyone who complains about Zajac also does the same with Henrique.
Queenie_5_hole
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 05.01.2015

May 2 @ 2:39 PM ET
Because of all those towering Flyers prospects, right?
- YuenglingJagr


Because the Flyers have been a pretty physical team since the 60's. The league has changed a lot and the Flyers today aren't the same Broad Street Bullies but I'd still rather have a team that can stand up for itself. Personally, I like your style of hockey and being strong down the middle is always important.
jersey1414
Joined: 05.10.2013

May 2 @ 2:42 PM ET
@jersey1414

What is wrong with Zajac? Misused? 14 goals, 45 points. Zacha 8 goals, 24 points. Mcleod is an unknown and Patrick/Hisheir should start on the third line to break them into the league. Mcleod may not even be on the team next year.

What is so wrong with letting prospects develop properly? It took half a season for Zacha to even look promising.

Zajac has four years left, which means, Pat/His contract will end just before that in order to be resigned and he'll have 1 year left. Unless Patrick/Hishier, Zacha, and Mcleod can show that they should be in the NHL and can produce regularly, then and ONLY then should they look to trade him. Zacha may also become a winger.

Also, Zajac isn't hindering any moves that are possible to make. I can't wait when Henrique is making 6 mil for 40 points, and hope that everyone who complains about Zajac also does the same with Henrique.

- Devils9503


Definitely a difference of opinion between you and I on how to use players. First line centers should drive more offense than 40-45 points, IMO. I think Zajac is capable of being a defensive minded, decent faceoff, PK guy. But he got his contract because of Kovy and Parise, period. And he's simply not that guy.

Yeah, it's probably unfair for me to think he will generate 70 points but that's how we're paying him. And while I think he's a decent defensive forward, he's by no means a Selke-type of guy. He's a tweener who gets paid way too much. And just because you have the cap space doesn't make his contract worth it. Whether sports or other business you don't spend for the sake of spending.

And while I understand your "wait until the prospects develop to trade him" I worry that he puts up another stinker of a season like 2014-15 where he got 25 points. I'm not saying his stock is sky high but it's not the pits either. I'd rather move him and create some space and, if need be, overpay to keep Hall in a couple years.

Oh, and I also don't like the "play prospects on the 3rd line" mode of thinking. You can't take a guy who's been a scorer his whole life and give him a couple of grinding wingers and think that's going to help development. I don't agree with that.

Not saying I'm right or you're wrong, but just explaining my line of thinking. Go Devs!
mcjags
New Jersey Devils
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 06.12.2007

May 2 @ 2:44 PM ET
Sure, there would be. Hischier played into the role; Patrick did not get himself injured out of it. I mean if Patrick went to World Juniors and scored 14 points in 11 games, too, there probably wouldn't even be a debate...

If one of them had led their team to the Mem Cup, it probably, again, would have strengthened each case, but Hischier got knocked out round one and Patrick was injured.

Lastly, if either of them had gone to the IIHF tournament like Laine and Matthews did last year, it would have intensified the debate, but no such luck...

So we were essentially put into debate hell over these two players for the next 8 weeks.

- archromat

I still think if Patrick was healthy, there wouldn't be a debate. I think Nico is a good player, just not the same category as Patrick when healthy.

I don't think Canada has had a draft eligible player in the IIHF tournament since Lindros, so not a good measuring stick...Canada has too deep of a pool of players to chose from.

Absolute worst case for NJ picking Patrick is he's the next Adrian Foster...that can't happen again right?
jersey1414
Joined: 05.10.2013

May 2 @ 2:48 PM ET
I still think if Patrick was healthy, there wouldn't be a debate. I think Nico is a good player, just not the same category as Patrick when healthy.

I don't think Canada has had a draft eligible player in the IIHF tournament since Lindros, so not a good measuring stick...Canada has too deep of a pool of players to chose from.

Absolute worst case for NJ picking Patrick is he's the next Adrian Foster...that can't happen again right?

- mcjags


Don't say that name around these parts!
IrischesGlueck
New Jersey Devils
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 08.12.2013

May 2 @ 2:50 PM ET
If Patrick didn't have a sports hernia to begin the year, there wouldn't even be a debate. He has been the consensus #1 for over 2 years. I think this debate over who goes #1 is a bit media driven, the same thing happened last Year with Matthews and Laine but we all knew who was going #1.

I'm on the Patrick bandwagon, I'd rather have a Toews or Kopitar than an Ehlers...not that there is anything wrong with Ehlers but you win Cups with the other guys.

- mcjags



Ughhh, I am so sick of people saying that. I look at it like this, at the beginning of the season he was sidelined for longer because, according to him, they were waiting till he was 100%. So, in the time between his injuries I am going to say that he was 100%; meaning, those numbers very well could be what he is capable of. This would mean that the drop in production was because the team lost a lot of their top end talent; which indicates his stats were inflated the 2015-16 campaign. Plus, this also puts Patrick and Hischier on the same level considering neither team is loaded with stars. So, if you compare the two on average, Nico out produced him in every category! Point being, I feel if Patrick did actually play the whole year, odd are his average numbers would be about where they are now.

All of this is basically me getting that, Hischier might have already passed him in the ranking if Patrick actually played all year! But because he was injured people are willing to assume his drop in production was cause he wasn't 100% and not cause he now lacks top-end teammates that were inflating his numbers. Speculation can go either way to fit whatever narrative you want.
CaptCrankypants
New Jersey Devils
Location: None of your business
Joined: 04.27.2014

May 2 @ 3:00 PM ET
I'm not saying next year. I'm not that naive. But I don't think it's out of the question. McLeod would probably be the wildcard there.

I'm just not a big Zajac guy. If he made less money and was a 3C I'd be fine with it, but IMO he's been misused and overpaid for years now.

- jersey1414

Zajac is a similar player to Jordan Staal (without the 2 60+ point seasons Zajac has had). A shutdown center who can win the matchup against anyone in the league but isn't going to score a ton. That's an incredibly valuable player to have. He's not overpaid for what he brings to the table. He's a good second line player based on raw point totals (45 points puts him tied for 35th in the league among forwards in points) and his value is much more than that.

Woodguy (an Oilers blogger who does a lot of analytics work) posted something recently that showed centers rel. CF% against elite players and Zajac ranked near the top of the list (behind Bergeron, Staal, Trochek, ahead of Toews and Kopitar).

The thing about playing defense is often when you're playing sound positionally, plays don't happen (and you can't measure things that don't happen either by analytics or the eye-test). He's not a very flashy player because he does do so much off the puck. Instead of appreciating him for what he is, a player who would consistently be in the Selke conversion if he had more offensive ability (ironically) or played on a better team, they're just set on the idea that he should be a #1 center and since he's not he must be worthless and overpaid (meanwhile if he was a #1 center he'd be really underpaid).
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

May 2 @ 3:02 PM ET
Definitely a difference of opinion between you and I on how to use players. First line centers should drive more offense than 40-45 points, IMO. I think Zajac is capable of being a defensive minded, decent faceoff, PK guy. But he got his contract because of Kovy and Parise, period. And he's simply not that guy.

Yeah, it's probably unfair for me to think he will generate 70 points but that's how we're paying him. And while I think he's a decent defensive forward, he's by no means a Selke-type of guy. He's a tweener who gets paid way too much. And just because you have the cap space doesn't make his contract worth it. Whether sports or other business you don't spend for the sake of spending.

And while I understand your "wait until the prospects develop to trade him" I worry that he puts up another stinker of a season like 2014-15 where he got 25 points. I'm not saying his stock is sky high but it's not the pits either. I'd rather move him and create some space and, if need be, overpay to keep Hall in a couple years.

Oh, and I also don't like the "play prospects on the 3rd line" mode of thinking. You can't take a guy who's been a scorer his whole life and give him a couple of grinding wingers and think that's going to help development. I don't agree with that.

Not saying I'm right or you're wrong, but just explaining my line of thinking. Go Devs!

- jersey1414


I do agree that actual 1st line centers should produce more then 45 points, but Hall makes a little more and only had 50 points and yet I don't see anyone saying anything about that. Remember Hall and Zajac are both working off what they are given. No one mentions that, but everyone likes to poop on Zajac.

Spending for the sake of spending is not a good thing, but it's not like they just signed him in free agency last year, his contract was signed in 2012/2013. And you should tell that to the people who want Shattenkirk. Hall doesn't have to be resigned until Pat/His does in 3 years.

Playing him on the third line breaks them into the league he can move up as the season moves on, like Zacha. Let him get acclimated first. If Shero can get guys that can produce in the top nine, then they should be able to produce on the 3rd line, with PP/PK time.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 2 @ 3:06 PM ET
I'm not sure if you've watched Kopitar before this year but either team would be lucky to have a caliber of player he is... and At the moment he is above Matthews and Eichel, he's a top two way forward in the game and has two cups...
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 2 @ 3:07 PM ET
Patrick and it's not close. Nico will be a nice player but Patrick can be a star. He's not in the Eichel/McDavid/Matthews area but he will be in the Kopitar range.
- Matthews_Auston


I'm not sure if you've watched Kopitar before this year but either team would be lucky to have a caliber of player he is... and At the moment he is above Matthews and Eichel, he's a top two way forward in the game and has two cups... (realize double post but want to get my point to this idiot above)
blizzzard
New Jersey Devils
Location: Orillia, ON
Joined: 07.02.2011

May 2 @ 3:08 PM ET
Ughhh, I am so sick of people saying that. I look at it like this, at the beginning of the season he was sidelined for longer because, according to him, they were waiting till he was 100%. So, in the time between his injuries I am going to say that he was 100%; meaning, those numbers very well could be what he is capable of. This would mean that the drop in production was because the team lost a lot of their top end talent; which indicates his stats were inflated the 2015-16 campaign. Plus, this also puts Patrick and Hischier on the same level considering neither team is loaded with stars. So, if you compare the two on average, Nico out produced him in every category! Point being, I feel if Patrick did actually play the whole year, odd are his average numbers would be about where they are now.

All of this is basically me getting that, Hischier might have already passed him in the ranking if Patrick actually played all year! But because he was injured people are willing to assume his drop in production was cause he wasn't 100% and not cause he now lacks top-end teammates that were inflating his numbers. Speculation can go either way to fit whatever narrative you want.

- IrischesGlueck

you can be 100% and not in game shape or rhythm ??? Like what does any of this even mean? If he had of played all year it wouldn't be the same at all it would be a entirely different scenario you have no clue at all what he would of done had he played 60-70 games and been able to get on a roll. You play 20 games and all of a sudden one slump that has happened to ever single player in their careers at one point or another and you're ppg total is going to take a hit.
jersey1414
Joined: 05.10.2013

May 2 @ 3:08 PM ET
Zajac is a similar player to Jordan Staal (without the 2 60+ point seasons Zajac has had). A shutdown center who can win the matchup against anyone in the league but isn't going to score a ton. That's an incredibly valuable player to have. He's not overpaid for what he brings to the table. He's a good second line player based on raw point totals (45 points puts him tied for 35th in the league among forwards in points) and his value is much more than that.

Woodguy (an Oilers blogger who does a lot of analytics work) posted something recently that showed centers rel. CF% against elite players and Zajac ranked near the top of the list (behind Bergeron, Staal, Trochek, ahead of Toews and Kopitar).

The thing about playing defense is often when you're playing sound positionally, plays don't happen (and you can't measure things that don't happen either by analytics or the eye-test). He's not a very flashy player because he does do so much off the puck. Instead of appreciating him for what he is, a player who would consistently be in the Selke conversion if he had more offensive ability (ironically) or played on a better team, they're just set on the idea that he should be a #1 center and since he's not he must be worthless and overpaid (meanwhile if he was a #1 center he'd be really underpaid).

- CaptCrankypants


I'm not suggesting he's worthless. I actually stated that there is value there and that's even more reason to consider moving him.
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

May 2 @ 3:13 PM ET
I'm not suggesting he's worthless. I actually stated that there is value there and that's even more reason to consider moving him.
- jersey1414


Anything the Devils get back for him wouldn't help them in probably 4-5 years if that. You're not getting a top prospect or 1st for him, unless some team thinks otherwise.

Now if they can get a 1st for him then consider it, but the Devils may have to eat some cap or take a contract back, which you would then be spending just to spend in a way.
jersey1414
Joined: 05.10.2013

May 2 @ 3:16 PM ET
I do agree that actual 1st line centers should produce more then 45 points, but Hall makes a little more and only had 50 points and yet I don't see anyone saying anything about that. Remember Hall and Zajac are both working off what they are given. No one mentions that, but everyone likes to poop on Zajac.

Spending for the sake of spending is not a good thing, but it's not like they just signed him in free agency last year, his contract was signed in 2012/2013. And you should tell that to the people who want Shattenkirk. Hall doesn't have to be resigned until Pat/His does in 3 years.

Playing him on the third line breaks them into the league he can move up as the season moves on, like Zacha. Let him get acclimated first. If Shero can get guys that can produce in the top nine, then they should be able to produce on the 3rd line, with PP/PK time.

- Devils9503


Yeah, but Hall missed some serious time and we all know he can create offense. Zajac doesn't have the speed to create those chances, doesn't have the shot to score from the outside, and just doesn't finish well around the net. But this isn't a hall vs. Zajac debate.

What if there was a trade out there similar to last year, but this time the opposite for us. That is, Zajac for a puck moving dman. Say...a Trouba, Ryan Murray, or Sami Vatanen type of player. And yes, I realize it would take more than Zajac. But if that's a key piece of the deal are you more tempted to do it? Then would you be willing to move all these intangibles he bring to the table?
IrischesGlueck
New Jersey Devils
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 08.12.2013

May 2 @ 3:18 PM ET
you can be 100% and not in game shape or rhythm ??? Like what does any of this even mean? If he had of played all year it wouldn't be the same at all it would be a entirely different scenario you have no clue at all what he would of done had he played 60-70 games and been able to get on a roll. You play 20 games and all of a sudden one slump that has happened to ever single player in their careers at one point or another and you're ppg total is going to take a hit.
- blizzzard


Exactly my point. You don't know if he would have produced like 2015-16, you don't know if his numbers would keep the same average, or even if they would've dropped more. Point I was trying to drive home is that the statement 'if he was healthy all year he would be undisputed #1' is completely ridiculous cause there are so many unknowns. If he played maybe he would've held onto it or, if he produced like he did in 2016-17 for the entire year, Nico Hischier might have passed him a while ago. That's all I am really driving at here.
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

May 2 @ 3:31 PM ET
Yeah, but Hall missed some serious time and we all know he can create offense. Zajac doesn't have the speed to create those chances, doesn't have the shot to score from the outside, and just doesn't finish well around the net. But this isn't a hall vs. Zajac debate.

What if there was a trade out there similar to last year, but this time the opposite for us. That is, Zajac for a puck moving dman. Say...a Trouba, Ryan Murray, or Sami Vatanen type of player. And yes, I realize it would take more than Zajac. But if that's a key piece of the deal are you more tempted to do it? Then would you be willing to move all these intangibles he bring to the table?

- jersey1414


Trouba yes. Murray no. Vatanen, not sure how good he is defensively.

Hall missed 10 games, he may create offense, but that won't show up 10 years from now on his career stats. Hall does have speed, but his shot got him 20 goals to Zajac's 14 and Hall doesn't go near the front of the net usually.

I agree it's not a Hall vs. Zajac, but he had 9 more points in 8 less games and everyone ignores Hall production compared to his pay, but Zajac's is never forgotten or is complained about all the time.
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

May 2 @ 3:34 PM ET
Exactly my point. You don't know if he would have produced like 2015-16, you don't know if his numbers would keep the same average, or even if they would've dropped more. Point I was trying to drive home is that the statement 'if he was healthy all year he would be undisputed #1' is completely ridiculous cause there are so many unknowns. If he played maybe he would've held onto it or, if he produced like he did in 2016-17 for the entire year, Nico Hischier might have passed him a while ago. That's all I am really driving at here.
- IrischesGlueck


Don't forget, this was Hischier first year in NA and in a highly offensive league. I'm for Patrick though.
Devils9503
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.25.2011

May 2 @ 3:37 PM ET
Just for fun, this is how I think the lineup should be:

Hall-Zajac-Palmieri
Zacha/Henrique-Henrique/Zacha-?
Quenneville-Patrick-Bennett
Wood-Stajan(should trade for)-?
tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

May 2 @ 3:48 PM ET
I'm not sure if you've watched Kopitar before this year but either team would be lucky to have a caliber of player he is... and At the moment he is above Matthews and Eichel, he's a top two way forward in the game and has two cups...
- ClaudeFather

Kopitar was terrible last year. He's partly the reason why Sutter was fired. He didn't score the first 3 month of the year.
2centz
Edmonton Oilers
Location: AB
Joined: 08.04.2015

May 2 @ 3:53 PM ET
Patrick sounds like Leon Draisaitl in your descriptions,who had success with Taylor Hall,last season. Hope the pick works out for you guys,we LOVE Larsson btw,thank you. Feels good to not know anything about this years crop of top prospects.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 2 @ 3:55 PM ET
Kopitar was terrible last year. He's partly the reason why Sutter was fired. He didn't score the first 3 month of the year.
- tomburton99


So we throw his whole body of work and two cups out based on two years? not sure if you were following the conversation but the guy said nico and nolan won't be matthews or Eichel but maybe Kopitar. Neither Matthews or Eichel achieved anything close to what Kopitar has. guy has a 40 goal season one time and he's better than a proven guy with two cups?
archromat
Location: Moncton, NB
Joined: 01.16.2012

May 2 @ 4:02 PM ET
Zajac is a similar player to Jordan Staal (without the 2 60+ point seasons Zajac has had). A shutdown center who can win the matchup against anyone in the league but isn't going to score a ton. That's an incredibly valuable player to have. He's not overpaid for what he brings to the table. He's a good second line player based on raw point totals (45 points puts him tied for 35th in the league among forwards in points) and his value is much more than that.

Woodguy (an Oilers blogger who does a lot of analytics work) posted something recently that showed centers rel. CF% against elite players and Zajac ranked near the top of the list (behind Bergeron, Staal, Trochek, ahead of Toews and Kopitar).

The thing about playing defense is often when you're playing sound positionally, plays don't happen (and you can't measure things that don't happen either by analytics or the eye-test). He's not a very flashy player because he does do so much off the puck. Instead of appreciating him for what he is, a player who would consistently be in the Selke conversion if he had more offensive ability (ironically) or played on a better team, they're just set on the idea that he should be a #1 center and since he's not he must be worthless and overpaid (meanwhile if he was a #1 center he'd be really underpaid).

- CaptCrankypants


I have been trying to sell Zajac's value for the contract for years... it's a tough sell because offensive production settles contract for many. Let's just say it's a good thing GMs don't think like that or signing Shattenkirk for 7M a year would be a good idea...

... wait...
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