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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: There are some hurdles to clear before Toronto can move Tyler Bozak
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B-Wforever
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: toronto, ON
Joined: 09.16.2010

Jul 10 @ 4:37 PM ET
Honest question, what do Leaf fans expect to get?

Bozak (and JVR) are good, but not great, players on expiring contracts. Teams that would want them are contenders, but who is going to give up say a top 4 defenseman for one of them. Particularly a righty, not many teams have a spare one sitting around. If they did, you'd here about him in a deal for Duchene.

- Tojo.



Leaf fans expect to package one or both of these guys to a place where they would sign as a free agent to land a top 4 dman.
I.e. Bozak+ a bottom 6 NHL dman (Marincin or Carrick), plus a defensive prospect (Maybe Dermott), plus an pick or a prospect. The pick round being conditional on re signing Bozak/JVR
We do not expect a 1:1 deal.
Tanev, Barrie, Vattanen are the names tossed around leaf land.

Otherwise they are deadline rental players like Brian Boyle. They will stay on the leafs as we will be a playoff team and if we deal then we'll be looking for rentals at the deadline.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:37 PM ET
Hagelin is not "spare parts"...argue it all you want but its true.
- DeflatedPucks


No, you're wrong and clearly dumb, sorry. He had a bad year last year, so that makes his other four solid seasons complete flukes.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 10 @ 4:37 PM ET
I agree with your assessment of the Leafs chances this year.

Fine about a player not fitting long-term, but that's where picks/prospects come into play. If you are realistically probably a couple of years away from being legit contenders anyway, this scenario would fit into that strategy.

- T-Train


I'm not the biggest fan of moving our picks/prospects. After the untouchables Sprong/guentzel or reese because you really can't trade a college guy you just signed we don't have any prospects of value. Unless they want a goalie which is doubtful. So you are talking about a pick. I'd really like to keep our 1st for now as their good tdl assets if we really need to add something (from injury) or ideal so we can stock our system.

I'd rather deal what we have excess of which is right wings.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:43 PM ET
I'm not the biggest fan of moving our picks/prospects. After the untouchables Sprong/guentzel or reese because you really can't trade a college guy you just signed we don't have any prospects of value. Unless they want a goalie which is doubtful. So you are talking about a pick. I'd really like to keep our 1st for now as their good tdl assets if we really need to add something (from injury) or ideal so we can stock our system.

I'd rather deal what we have excess of which is right wings.

- sditulli


I still think Maatta is the best piece to move. I know the UFA market isn't left with any amazing players, but there are a few who IMO are just as good. I may just be in a small group who thinks what he brings is very replaceable.

I believe the Cole/Schultz combo is an above average 2nd pairing. Hunwick is a very solid 3rd pairing dman. I'm personally ok with Franson. He's slow, but no slower than Maatta and can bring about the same game.

After moving Maatta for a 3C, you can explore moving someone like Hagelin or Hornqvist.
T-Train
Joined: 06.20.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:44 PM ET
I'm not the biggest fan of moving our picks/prospects. After the untouchables Sprong/guentzel or reese because you really can't trade a college guy you just signed we don't have any prospects of value. Unless they want a goalie which is doubtful. So you are talking about a pick. I'd really like to keep our 1st for now as their good tdl assets if we really need to add something (from injury) or ideal so we can stock our system.

I'd rather deal what we have excess of which is right wings.

- sditulli

I agree. We have 3 good prospects (if you include Guentzel) and a goalie prospect. I don't care about losing our first round pick(s) as it will be 20 or later and not worth that much. But then Toronto knows this, too. Pens are in win-now during the Crosby/Malkin window so first round picks are of little value to them.
B-Wforever
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: toronto, ON
Joined: 09.16.2010

Jul 10 @ 4:45 PM ET
You misunderstand value. Value has nothing to do with need. It may be a bad deal for toronto (unless they want nylander at center this year), but its pretty close to fair value. I'd say bozzak is the better player, but teams love a guy like hornqvist in the playoffs.
- sditulli


Value comes down to are you better or worse after the trade.
In your trade the leafs are worse, so there is not any value in your trade for the leafs.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:46 PM ET
I agree. We have 3 good prospects (if you include Guentzel) and a goalie prospect. I don't care about losing our first round pick(s) as it will be 20 or later and not worth that much. But then Toronto knows this, too. Pens are in win-now during the Crosby/Malkin window so first round picks are of little value to them.
- T-Train


I'm never really worried about losing a 1st round pick, but this year I am. The 2018 draft is supposed to be very deep and a late 1st rounder could still wind up being a very good player.
T-Train
Joined: 06.20.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:47 PM ET
I still think Maatta is the best piece to move. I know the UFA market isn't left with any amazing players, but there are a few who IMO are just as good. I may just be in a small group who thinks what he brings is very replaceable.

I believe the Cole/Schultz combo is an above average 2nd pairing. Hunwick is a very solid 3rd pairing dman. I'm personally ok with Franson. He's slow, but no slower than Maatta and can bring about the same game.

After moving Maatta for a 3C, you can explore moving someone like Hagelin or Hornqvist.

- Rinosaur

I agree, but Toronto probably doesn't want Maatta's $4 mil back in salary unless they moved, JvR, too.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 10 @ 4:47 PM ET
I agree. We have 3 good prospects (if you include Guentzel) and a goalie prospect. I don't care about losing our first round pick(s) as it will be 20 or later and not worth that much. But then Toronto knows this, too. Pens are in win-now during the Crosby/Malkin window so first round picks are of little value to them.
- T-Train


IMO Win Now might be 8 years. So the 1st round pick next year might be the guentzel on a cup team in 4 years. I definitely think the window is wide-open enough to not mortgage the farm especially when the team is already a front-runner for a 3rd cup.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:47 PM ET
Value comes down to are you better or worse after the trade.
In your trade the leafs are worse, so there is not any value in your trade for the leafs.

- B-Wforever


Value is completely objective to the party receiving the player. You can't tell me that Larsson for Hall was equal value, but EDM clearly valued what Larsson would do for their team vs. Hall.

Now, I don't think Hornqvist makes much sense for Toronto, so I can't see them valuing him.
B-Wforever
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: toronto, ON
Joined: 09.16.2010

Jul 10 @ 4:49 PM ET
You can't be serious with this. Brown isn't going to camp without a contract, and the Leafs would never allow that to happen. It would be a disaster. Plus, they can only exceed the Cap in the off-season by 10% which they have mostly used up already. Lupul and Horton count against the Cap in the summer. They literally don't have room for Brown's contract until they move out salary.
- djamon



They have 500k in room right now, until the LTIR kicks in.
Guaranteed they already have a deal in place with Brown. They just can't announce it officially until they have the cap room. He can go to camp without a deal signed and he will be there.
djamon
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Victoria, BC
Joined: 05.27.2013

Jul 10 @ 4:50 PM ET
They have 500k in room right now, until the LTIR kicks in.
Guaranteed they already have a deal in place with Brown. They just can't announce it officially until they have the cap room. He can go to camp without a deal signed and he will be there.

- B-Wforever


He's not going to camp without a deal. But I agree with everything else you said.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 10 @ 4:50 PM ET
Don't dispute anything you wrote above.
But you know it is in these parts...fans put up these crazy trade scenarios that if offered to their own team in reverse would go bananas.
JVR is worth more than Bozak but not worth a top 4 on his own - would need to bundle it with more pieces. Bozak is worth a late first / early second round pick IMO to a team that wants him. If Leafs can't get that kind of return, they are better off just keeping both since they are pretty heavily invested in the upcoming sseason.

- Cooshie

I'd agree, I wouldn't want Hagelin for Bozak if I were you.

Value for Bozak seems fair, so our first. Personally, I'm looking for a guy with more term, but that's a deal worth considering.

It's hard for me to come up with a team that would trade a top 4 for a package centered on JVR unless they knew they could extend him. Top 4 RD is such a tough piece to aquire, not many teams can trade one. Maybe there's a match, nobody comes to my mind though.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:52 PM ET
I agree, but Toronto probably doesn't want Maatta's $4 mil back in salary unless they moved, JvR, too.
- T-Train


I don't think a Maatta/Bozak swap makes sense either for TOR unless like you said JVR gets moved out, or other moves are made to free up space and replace the 3C position.

If I'm TOR, I'm probably standing pat until the deadline. Adding Marleau may have been one move, but the trickle-down effect to their roster is HUGE. They are going to be an offensive juggernaut.
B-Wforever
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: toronto, ON
Joined: 09.16.2010

Jul 10 @ 4:53 PM ET
Value is completely objective to the party receiving the player. You can't tell me that Larsson for Hall was equal value, but EDM clearly valued what Larsson would do for their team vs. Hall.

- Rinosaur



Larsson is the oilers best defense men, and made the oilers better, and also saved them 2 million in cap so the deal added tremendous value.

Hall is NJD best forward, so he added value to the devils. They need offense

So yes, I see the deal had equal value to both teams despite Hall being the more talented player.
T-Train
Joined: 06.20.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:53 PM ET
IMO Win Now might be 8 years. So the 1st round pick next year might be the guentzel on a cup team in 4 years. I definitely think the window is wide-open enough to not mortgage the farm especially when the team is already a front-runner for a 3rd cup.
- sditulli

We're not a front-runner without a 3C and I think our realistic Cup window is in the next 3 years. Not saying it's closed after 3 years, but it gets a lot more difficult for a variety of reasons.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 10 @ 4:55 PM ET
In my mind Bozak has more value than JVR simply because he plays a premium position and plays it very well. I recognize that may not be the prevailing opinion because JVR scores at an elite level. Neither on their own are worth a top 4 RHD, but I don't believe it's because they're on expiring contracts. Top 4 RHD are just extremely valuable right now...disproportionally so, IMO.

A player on the last year of his contract just doesn't suddenly lose his value. There's an advantage in having a player for a year play in your system and allow the team to decide if he's worth committing to, as opposed to a player with several years. The financial commitment is less, and Organizations think of this.

- djamon

Agree on RHD value being so high, disagree about players having the same value with one year left as with multiple years. You can maybe get a conditiinal pick added in casw the players signs an extention, but the guy has less value for getting a player now.
T-Train
Joined: 06.20.2016

Jul 10 @ 4:55 PM ET
Larsson is the oilers best defense men, and made the oilers better, and also saved them 2 million in cap so the deal added tremendous value.

Hall is NJD best forward, so he added value to the devils. They need offense

So yes, I see the deal had equal value to both teams despite Hall being the more talented player.

- B-Wforever

I agree with your first two lines, but I still can't get on board with that deal.
B-Wforever
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: toronto, ON
Joined: 09.16.2010

Jul 10 @ 4:59 PM ET
I don't think a Maatta/Bozak swap makes sense either for TOR unless like you said JVR gets moved out, or other moves are made to free up space and replace the 3C position.

If I'm TOR, I'm probably standing pat until the deadline. Adding Marleau may have been one move, but the trickle-down effect to their roster is HUGE. They are going to be an offensive juggernaut.

- Rinosaur


We do have to find a place in the top 6 for Kappinen to play this year. He's not a 4th liner, and the 3rd line is already log jammed with Hyman, Brown, Kadri and Komarov. Not enough ice for all the young players to continue to develop, and on the flip side a gaping hole on defense.
djamon
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Victoria, BC
Joined: 05.27.2013

Jul 10 @ 5:00 PM ET
Agree on RHD value being so high, disagree about players having the same value with one year left as with multiple years. You can maybe get a conditiinal pick added in casw the players signs an extention, but the guy has less value for getting a player now.
- Tojo.


I don't necessarily think the value is the same, just that a guy shouldn't lose all his value simply because he has only one year left. Would JVR have less value now or if he was still owed 30M over the next 4 years?
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 5:01 PM ET
Larsson is the oilers best defense men, and made the oilers better, and also saved them 2 million in cap so the deal added tremendous value.

Hall is NJD best forward, so he added value to the devils. They need offense

So yes, I see the deal had equal value to both teams despite Hall being the more talented player.

- B-Wforever


Larsson being their best dman is relative to the rest of the core. On paper though? Hall >>> Larsson in terms of basic value.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 10 @ 5:02 PM ET
We do have to find a place in the top 6 for Kappinen to play this year. He's not a 4th liner, and the 3rd line is already log jammed with Hyman, Brown, Kadri and Komarov. Not enough ice for all the young players to continue to develop, and on the flip side a gaping hole on defense.
- B-Wforever


Nice problems to have! Welcome to the world of being a Pens fan hahaha

You at least have options of moving one of your other forwards to Center since a few of them happen to be natural centers, like Komarov. That gives you an opportunity to have Kapanen on the 3rd line.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 10 @ 5:02 PM ET
We're not a front-runner without a 3C and I think our realistic Cup window is in the next 3 years. Not saying it's closed after 3 years, but it gets a lot more difficult for a variety of reasons.
- T-Train

I agree with this. 3 years with the next 2 being the best chances. Window may not be closed, but with decline and some significant raises to pay it will probably be pretty close.
djamon
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Victoria, BC
Joined: 05.27.2013

Jul 10 @ 5:03 PM ET
Larsson being their best dman is relative to the rest of the core. On paper though? Hall >>> Larsson in terms of basic value.
- Rinosaur


Larsson is definitely NOT their best d-man. That would be Klefbom. Larsson is solid...nothing more, nothing less.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 10 @ 5:05 PM ET
I don't necessarily think the value is the same, just that a guy shouldn't lose all his value simply because he has only one year left. Would JVR have less value now or if he was still owed 30M over the next 4 years?
- djamon

Not all his value, but a significant amount. It's hard to trade a guy who can be a part of your core for years for a guy that will only be there for one.
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