I don't think there's any doubt that ADB is that kind of guy who has the hockey sense to be able to elevate his game when playing with better players. I've seen those guys, and I know one of them.

He has the short area moves and shot to to be a real factor, from the blue line in, playing with the right guys. Problem is, in pro hockey, you can't make a living night after night being a half court/highlight reel player. And no, this is not another Patrick Kane, either. So you can't raise that argument.

I think the issues with him are some physical limitations (and not just size mind you) and his readiness for what's expected as an NHL forward. Some that he can work out. Some others?

I will just say this, his skating/speed issues, I was told by someone I trust, and echoed by others who saw him at PC, are legit. How seriously that impacts his pro potential remains to be seen. There IS a speed difference between the OHL and the NHL. And that difference can seriously negate big time OHL scoring numbers.

You can't—as some have tried-say, well he "kept up with McDavid. I could relatively speaking "keep up with McDavid. Well, maybe that's a stretch, but the point is, the MUCH bigger issue is:

1) the time and space pro defenders take away and 2) their much greater ability to keep up with ADB, knock him off pucks, etc.

That's another thing— the pro defensemen he will face along the wall are going to be physically a lot closer to say Radovan Bondra (who thoroughly dominated ADB in one on one drills in camp) , than some 185 pound 17 year old kid playing for Sarnia or Belleville.

If he scores some goals in camp scrimmages or even exhibitions playing with Kane and AA, all that tells you is what you pretty much already know: he can produce something offensively with skill guys in camp scrimmages and exhibitions.

Problem is, there's more to what's expected in actual NHL games and over the course of a season.

I think the first test for him will be (at minimum) a half season in Rockford unless he is a huge revelation in pro camp—up and down the ice. I suspect he will produce nice numbers in Rockford as the AHL is sort of middle ground as far as transitioning to NHL speed, but the team will want to see how he adjusts to pro physicality, learns to win pucks versus pro defenders (using his smarts and quickness, because he is never going to outmuscle them), plays defense on his wing.
- John Jaeckel

All of this is pretty spot on from what I've seen. My hopes are tha the can elevate his game like he has in the past. He was first just some small kid who played good because of McDavid. Then because of Strome, then... well, maybe because he's actually good. I don't doubt he will be in the Rock this season, maybe even for the whole year, and I don't think that's a bad thing.

I had season tickets to Tyler Johnson's junior team for his whole career there. He was a small guy who needed to develop. He got his shot with Tampa and spent 2 seasons in the AHL before being called up. Now he's a legit player, but it takes time for guys that small to adjust their game to the NHL size and speed. Hopefully ADB takes a page out of Johnson's book and uses a lot of yoga to help his balance. That was huge for Tyler's skating.

Was it Branch Rickie who said (paraphrasing) "trade them a year too early rather than a year too late"? I can't help thinking of that with our Hawks. No doubt fans hate that philosophy because we focus on the now rather than the future and a rebuild is not what we want, even though our brains tell us it may be the smart move.

So, we'll lace em up again this season with at least a couple not insignificant holes and pin our hopes on things going the Hawks way. The "hockey gods" have been good to us over the past decade, maybe we're still the apple of their eye.

The real problem is, after Seabrook and Keith, 3-4 are not what they were a couple of years ago. Not yet anyway. THAt is the bigger issue.
- John Jaeckel

For sure, Murphy-Kempny is not nearly as good as Hjalmarsson-Oduya circa 2013-15. But I think they will be better than expected and they have a positive future outlook. Maybe I'm just being overly positive, but I'm expecting a big jump in Kempny's game this season.

JJ said: Why do I say that, some no doubt ask, because on paper, Saad will not replace (likely) the offense lost in one Artemi Panarin.

I'm not sure I see - even on paper - the lost offense.

The last two seasons - Panarin here, Saad in Columbus - the goal scoring was as follows:

Panarin: 44 EV + 17 PP = 61 goals total
Saad: 48 EV + 7 PP = 55 goals total

10% fewer goals for Saad, due to the PP difference - EV (where the Hawks have continued to struggle for 2 seasons now) the edge goes to Saad.

Panarin had dramatically more assists the past two years - 90 to 51 - playing on one of the top scoring lines in the league (and with a top goal scorer) and I think much more PP time than Saad.

Add in Saad's 200 foot game (which Panarin didn't really have) - and his fit with Toews AND Kane's ability to elevate the game of whoever wings on his left....
- StLBravesFan

Good points, and I don't disagree. I think the "lamentations" of lost "offense" with Panarin leaving are way overblown. I also think, hell, if not Sharp, then Hartman can be productive enough with AA and Kane. Hawks are nice and deep at forward again. i think it would also be great to let Schmaltz center a lower line if he can hack it to gain experience there, as that is going toe his best NHL position assuming he advances physically.

Could Hartman or Hayden play with Toews and Saad or is that asking to much from them?

Good blog; a rarity around here.

For sure, Murphy-Kempny is not nearly as good as Hjalmarsson-Oduya circa 2013-15. But I think they will be better than expected and they have a positive future outlook. Maybe I'm just being overly positive, but I'm expecting a big jump in Kempny's game this season.
- DarthKane

Athletically, they can do about everything the other two could. It's all between the ears and in the chest cavity, IMO. Hjalmarsson and Oduya were not only smart (although Jonny O had to get smarter over his career), they were WARRIORS.

I like Kempny too. He gets to pucks faster than most guys can dream of, and he can blast the biscuit, throw a big hit. Both he and Murphy seem more than willing.

It's their progression in terms of their split second devisions and development of instinctively better decisions over time . . .

Good blog; a rarity around here.
- Aetherial

Thx and Cheers, good to see you around

Could Hartman or Hayden play with Toews and Saad or is that asking to much from them?
- ger68

Saad will be there, pretty sure, he and Toews have big time chemistry. Although if that fails, then anything's possible with Q.

Athletically, they can do about everything the other two could. It's all between the ears and in the chest cavity, IMO. Hjalmarsson and Oduya were not only smart (although Jonny O had to get smarter over his career), they were WARRIORS.

I like Kempny too. He gets to pucks faster than most guys can dream of, and he can blast the biscuit, throw a big hit. Both he and Murphy seem more than willing.

It's their progression in terms of their split second devisions and development of instinctively better decisions over time . . .
- John Jaeckel

I have a feeling our D-cores success is largely tied to what Ulfie can get them to do. I'm hoping it's a lot like his first year with NYR.

Could Hartman or Hayden play with Toews and Saad or is that asking to much from them?
- ger68

Maybe, but I don't see why they would play over Panik.

Panik can play LW but played better as a RW, not that Toews' line as a LW I think that trio can be a real solid combination.

I'm still hoping for a third line of Sharp-Schmaltz-Hartman, but I don't know how likely that is given that Sharp could end up on Kane's line.

Could Hartman or Hayden play with Toews and Saad or is that asking to much from them?
- ger68

If Panik can continue his play of last year - the best of which was with Toews - why would you want them to?

Wlhat about Rutta, he is a little more experienced than Forsling could he step in as a bottom pairing guy?

Wlhat about Rutta, he is a little more experienced than Forsling could he step in as a bottom pairing guy?
- ger68

It's really hard to say how good Rutta will be with no North American experience. I think at best Rutta would be as good as Kempny was last season. That would be the best case scenario but I am not expecting him to be that good.

JJ said: Why do I say that, some no doubt ask, because on paper, Saad will not replace (likely) the offense lost in one Artemi Panarin.

I'm not sure I see - even on paper - the lost offense.

The last two seasons - Panarin here, Saad in Columbus - the goal scoring was as follows:

Panarin: 44 EV + 17 PP = 61 goals total
Saad: 48 EV + 7 PP = 55 goals total

10% fewer goals for Saad, due to the PP difference - EV (where the Hawks have continued to struggle for 2 seasons now) the edge goes to Saad.

Panarin had dramatically more assists the past two years - 90 to 51 - playing on one of the top scoring lines in the league (and with a top goal scorer) and I think much more PP time than Saad.

Add in Saad's 200 foot game (which Panarin didn't really have) - and his fit with Toews AND Kane's ability to elevate the game of whoever wings on his left....
- StLBravesFan

I don't think EV scoring was such an issue last year. (aside from those awful 2 home games vs Nashville) I thought the special teams were more of a let down.

Hawks were 9th in total goals and 11th is goals against.

8th in 5v5 goals for (only 3 goals outside the top 5)
8th in 5v5 goals against (again just 3 goals outside the top 5)

no doubt the Hawks want to be tougher to play against 5v5 but they scored pretty well.

I don't think EV scoring was such an issue last year. (aside from those awful 2 home games vs Nashville) I thought the special teams were more of a let down.

Hawks were 9th in total goals and 11th is goals against.

8th in 5v5 goals for (only 3 goals outside the top 5)
8th in 5v5 goals against (again just 3 goals outside the top 5)

no doubt the Hawks want to be tougher to play against 5v5 but they scored pretty well.
- breadbag

After further review - I agree with your analysis.

Most odds I see list the Hawks at around 12/1 or 14/1 to win the cup...and ranked around the 6th best team...so not bad. My guess is they don't make any more moves prior to season. Once season starts they put Hoss on LTIR. Then it is anyone's guess as to how they use that slotted money.

Pretty much agree with everything JJ wrote here.

Hawks may be successful in trying to delay the inevitable this year, but the full-scale teardown is coming soon.

Pretty much agree with everything JJ wrote here.

Hawks may be successful in trying to delay the inevitable this year, but the full-scale teardown is coming soon.
- BINGO!

Pretty sure that was the talk not that long ago about Pittsburgh. How did that work out?

Pretty sure that was the talk not that long ago about Pittsburgh. How did that work out?
- Blackwater13

They got real lucky... And Toews and Kane are not Crosby and Malkin, as much as one would like them to be.

That and the Pens didn't have a bunch of D men on long term contracts with NTC's either.

JJ, thoughts on how effective Dauphin can be as a (semi) Kruger replacement?

The Shaw/Kruger/Desi line was instrumental to cup success. Shutdown Town.

Can Wingels/Bouma/Hayden/whoever centered by Dauphin come relatively close? That would be YUGE.

Pretty much agree with everything JJ wrote here.

Hawks may be successful in trying to delay the inevitable this year, but the full-scale teardown is coming soon.
- BINGO!

Will it be worse than the Carolina teardown?
How long has that lasted now?

Will it be worse than the Carolina teardown?
How long has that lasted now?
- Yikes726

Getting a little defensive? It's just his opinion.

Will it be worse than the Carolina teardown?
How long has that lasted now?
- Yikes726

That took two years. Truth is the Canes didn't have a lot to take apart in the first place.

Last year was build year #1

this is build year #2

JJ, thoughts on how effective Dauphin can be as a (semi) Kruger replacement?

The Shaw/Kruger/Desi line was instrumental to cup success. Shutdown Town.

Can Wingels/Bouma/Hayden/whoever centered by Dauphin come relatively close? That would be YUGE.
- ItHossaGood

Wingels won't disappoint. Love that guy. Bouma, on the other hand...