I probably wouldn't because of all the younger wings, but I'd at least consider it. I don't think his game is going to fall off a cliff soon like a lot of people, just loom at Hornqvist.
Gajtka at DK is doing an advanced stat breakdown of players and did Hornqvist yesterday. Short version is he scores right at a 1st line wing rate and has better possession numbers and even better goals percentage numbers.
His goal .3 and point .63 per game numbers were consistent with his career numbers. His hero chart has him at exactly first line wing production.
He was third on the team in shot generation 63.4/60 and 4th in shot suppression 54.4/60. His corsi relative was 4.1, third best behind Crosby and Hagelin. His hero chart gave him 7s in both shot gen and suppression, out-performing a top line wing archetype of 6 and 5.
Specifically to linemates (he used 3 year samples) Crosby has a 2% better corsi for with Hornqvist while Malkin's is 5% better. However Malkin's goals for is just 52% with Hornqvist while it's 67% with Crosby. Hornqvist posted a 61% goals for last year.
So if you think he'll hold steady for a few more years, is it really that silly to consider signing him again. I probably don't, but I'd at least consider it. It would open up the possibikity of trading Sheary for a 3C, as he'd actually get the type of player everyone wants especially with his nice contract. - Tojo.
Even if he declines to a 25-30 point player.. at the right price he'd still be valuable on the 3rd and 4th lines.
Even if he declines to a 25-30 point player.. at the right price he'd still be valuable on the 3rd and 4th lines. - j.boyd919
Yes, but he's not going to resign for 3rd/4th line role money. He's going to ask and likely get 4.5-5.5 million per year. As long as his game doesn't fall off a cliff this year. Probably with 4-5 years of term.
Even if he declines to a 25-30 point player.. at the right price he'd still be valuable on the 3rd and 4th lines. - j.boyd919
He's not gonna get the right price though. He's gonna get a raise and term. His archetype is extremely valued around the league. I'd love to have at 3 mil as much as the next guy.
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF Joined: 12.12.2014
Aug 4 @ 9:47 AM ET
I probably wouldn't because of all the younger wings, but I'd at least consider it. I don't think his game is going to fall off a cliff soon like a lot of people, just loom at Hornqvist.
Gajtka at DK is doing an advanced stat breakdown of players and did Hornqvist yesterday. Short version is he scores right at a 1st line wing rate and has better possession numbers and even better goals percentage numbers.
His goal .3 and point .63 per game numbers were consistent with his career numbers. His hero chart has him at exactly first line wing production.
He was third on the team in shot generation 63.4/60 and 4th in shot suppression 54.4/60. His corsi relative was 4.1, third best behind Crosby and Hagelin. His hero chart gave him 7s in both shot gen and suppression, out-performing a top line wing archetype of 6 and 5.
Specifically to linemates (he used 3 year samples) Crosby has a 2% better corsi for with Hornqvist while Malkin's is 5% better. However Malkin's goals for is just 52% with Hornqvist while it's 67% with Crosby. Hornqvist posted a 61% goals for last year.
So if you think he'll hold steady for a few more years, is it really that silly to consider signing him again. I probably don't, but I'd at least consider it. It would open up the possibikity of trading Sheary for a 3C, as he'd actually get the type of player everyone wants especially with his nice contract. - Tojo.
Thanks for all of that. He's an extremely valuable piece on and off the ice.
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF Joined: 12.12.2014
Aug 4 @ 9:48 AM ET
He's not gonna get the right price though. He's gonna get a raise and term. His archetype is extremely valued around the league. I'd love to have at 3 mil as much as the next guy. - Victoro311
I dont mind if he gets a small raise I just dont want him signed longer than 3 years.
He's not gonna get the right price though. He's gonna get a raise and term. His archetype is extremely valued around the league. I'd love to have at 3 mil as much as the next guy. - Victoro311
I completely agree, if that's the case.. I'd let him walk and get paid elsewhere and just run Guentzel, Kessel, Sprong, Kuhn on the RW in the future and Sheary, Hagelin (at least for next year), Rust, ZAR, Wilson on the LW.
I dont mind if he gets a small raise I just dont want him signed longer than 3 years. - MattStrat
After this season, the winger UFA class doesn't look half bad. Neal, JVR, Horny, Little, Atkinson, Cogliano, E. Kane, Grabner... there are going to be options for teams. Even centers, you're gonna have guys like Sedin, Koivu, Filppula, Stastny, Backlund, Turris, Eller... Finding a UFA 3C this season as a stop gap on the cheap might not be a bad idea with the options available next year.
I completely agree, if that's the case.. I'd let him walk and get paid elsewhere and just run Guentzel, Kessel, Sprong, Kuhn on the RW in the future and Sheary, Hagelin (at least for next year), Rust, ZAR, Wilson on the LW. - j.boyd919
Yes. Kinda pointless to think his decline is to a still good 3rd line hockey player when its almost guaranteed he gets paid like 1st liner.
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF Joined: 12.12.2014
Aug 4 @ 10:22 AM ET
After this season, the winger UFA class doesn't look half bad. Neal, JVR, Horny, Little, Atkinson, Cogliano, E. Kane, Grabner... there are going to be options for teams. Even centers, you're gonna have guys like Sedin, Koivu, Filppula, Stastny, Backlund, Turris, Eller... Finding a UFA 3C this season as a stop gap on the cheap might not be a bad idea with the options available next year. - j.boyd919
Yeah that's not a bad list right now...but most of them will be extended by their current teams I imagine.
If I had to place I bet; I bet sedins end up in chicago next year on the cheap. I assume they will primarily look for a team they turn into a cup contender for a year.
If I had to place I bet; I bet sedins end up in chicago next year on the cheap. I assume they will primarily look for a team they turn into a cup contender for a year. - sditulli
If I had to place I bet; I bet sedins end up in chicago next year on the cheap. I assume they will primarily look for a team they turn into a cup contender for a year. - sditulli
