A 1% chance is the same as a 30% chance, they both have a % after the number.
- 1970vintage

You need to relook at the modern lotto %.... plus the results of how teams fair....

You need to relook at the modern lotto %.... plus the results of how teams fair....
- Nuck4U

No I don’t, the bottom line is the worse a team finished the higher are the odds of “winning” the lottery, AND the furthest they can fall is three spots. Finishing 31 means worst case scenario is picking 4th

That's fine, but the odds of winning the lottery still improve with a lower finish and that's the bottom line.
- Nucker101

Its rather insignificant and doesn't have a real effect on the odds. Player and team development outweighs that dire hope fallacy.

Good luck with this one guys.

Good luck with this one guys.
- A_SteamingLombardi

Yep. About time to hit the ol dusty trail i think. Have a good night man

Its rather insignificant and doesn't have a real effect on the odds. Player and team development outweighs that dire hope fallacy.
- Nuck4U

Okay, you're gonna have to show your work on this one. You're acting like finishing 8th last and 3rd last is pretty much the same thing

5.8% vs 10.5% is not the same thing lol

Also you're failing to realize that finishing lower also means you can't fall as far. Finishing last guarantees you a top 4 pick, finishing 2nd last guarantees a top 5 pick, and so on.

So by finishing lower, you're not only increasing your odds of winning a top 3 pick, but also ensuring that you can only fall so far.


To say that all of this is insignificant is ridiculous. Now if you wanna argue about a winning culture then go ahead.

No I don’t, the bottom line is the worse a team finished the higher are the odds of “winning” the lottery, AND the furthest they can fall is three spots. Finishing 31 means worst case scenario is picking 4th
- 1970vintage

You made the 30% claim so that is either hyperbole or not representative to the reality. The difference in percentages are miniscule and have no real effect on the odds. Too lazy to paste the links to statistical formulas that explain it.

Anyway, it is why they changed the system again after the McDavid draft to prevent tanking. Reason teams now are not taking measures to do it. If they fail because of sucking, injuries, rebuild status they accept whatever positioning they fall into as the same.

What they all line up with glee for is the lotto luck. GM's want the top 2 picks 3rd is consolation. From 4 to 10 not any real BPA difference just preferences per team. Some drafts extend further down to late teens.

Canucks are so tuff. Need better/higher lifts in their skates

https://twitter.com/TheSt...status/941180345625411584

You made the 30% claim so that is either hyperbole or not representative to the reality. The difference in percentages are miniscule and have no real effect on the odds. Too lazy to paste the links to statistical formulas that explain it.

Anyway, it is why they changed the system again after the McDavid draft to prevent tanking. Reason teams now are not taking measures to do it. If they fail because of sucking, injuries, rebuild status they accept whatever positioning they fall into as the same.

What they all line up with glee for is the lotto luck. GM's want the top 2 picks 3rd is consolation. From 4 to 10 not any real BPA difference just preferences per team. Some drafts extend further down to late teens.
- Nuck4U

Incorrect.


There's a drop-offs in the top 10 if you look at recent history. Especially since a top 10 pick that doesn't develop into a top 4 dman or top 6 forward is considered a bust:

Canucks are so tuff. Need better/higher lifts in their skates

https://twitter.com/TheSt...status/941180345625411584
- Codes1087

wow

Incorrect, there's a drop-offs in the top 10 if you look at recent history. Especially since a top 10 pick that doesn't develop into a top 4 dan or top 6 forward is considered a bust:




- Nucker101

You know better than this Nucker

Okay, you're gonna have to show your work on this one. You're acting like finishing 8th last and 3rd last is pretty much the same thing

5.8% vs 10.5% is not the same thing lol

Also you're failing to realize that finishing lower also means you can't fall as far. Finishing last guarantees you a top 4 pick, finishing 2nd last guarantees a top 5 pick, and so on.

So by finishing lower, you're not only increasing your odds of winning a top 3 pick, but also ensuring that you can only fall so far.


To say that all of this is insignificant is ridiculous. Now if you wanna argue about a winning culture then go ahead.
- Nucker101

See post above answered most of this with Vintage. You need to run the statistical formula to understand the odds and why the % differences are insignificant. Like finishing 1-5 may seem like there is a difference but its a placebo effect to positioning. Lotto luck rules all.

Incorrect.


There's a drop-offs in the top 10 if you look at recent history. Especially since a top 10 pick that doesn't develop into a top 4 dman or top 6 forward is considered a bust:




- Nucker101

This just proves my point from 4-10 so thanks.

You know better than this Nucker
- Codes1087

You need to get some rest to grasp the details and distinctions son.

This just proves my point from 4-10 so thanks.
- Nuck4U

On 2nd look, I realize you're right. You're welcome.

I concede, good sir.

On 2nd look, I realize you're right. You're welcome.

I concede, good sir.
- Nucker101

As long as we don't pick 10th or 15th. Something weird about those spots.

That game was unlucky which turned ugly.

TG new D pairing's were especially bad.

Gagner Burmistrov Vanek. 3 players that literally have no idea what defence is, on the same line.

I get that TG is trying to do the best with what he has but really how do you not see that line would be terrible!

Granlund isn't a center.

Rightsided DP wishes he could go back to left sided DP.

On 2nd look, I realize you're right. You're welcome.

I concede, good sir.
- Nucker101

Holy balls, not that I post a lot but having to read through N4U's posts... I feel for you all that actually try to engage

That game was unlucky which turned ugly.

I get that TG is trying to do the best with what he has but really how do you not see that line would be terrible!

- manvanfan

Things I'm glad for this morning: that I didn't watch that game.

The lack of NHL-ready depth is reaaalllllyyy being shown right now, which I'm fine with. Most of the 'depth' are still kids playing in leagues other than the AHL. It will take time to draft and develop more depth, and then have them earn their spot. The vets they signed in the off-season were probably the right idea (looking at where we are now), just signed the wrong guys.

Things are looking good for a better draft pick now

Just caught the rest of the hilts wow…is MNGT still thinking playoffs?

Just caught the rest of the hilts wow…is MNGT still thinking playoffs?
- LordHumungous

Maybe for Utica they should be thinking playoffs.

Can they fire Cloutier? Flash back to Lidstrom

Holy balls, not that I post a lot but having to read through N4U's posts... I feel for you all that actually try to engage
- NewYorkNuck

Really now based on what specifically? Not adhering to your views on tanking? This drum beat of hearalding losses as a step closer to improvement is facsinating. But the notion and facts can have a different distinction when broken down.

If it challenges your propensities then sorry for piercing any bubble of pre-conceived notions. As exchanges to interpretation are meant to expand understanding not fuel intolerance.

I stopped reading very early when the argument turned to 1+1=2 to 1+1=29