You said a ick is worth more than a player, not me. I think a player is almost always worth more than a pick.
- Der Kaiser

I get the logic, but i still think it's entirely dependant on the player(and position) and the pick

Yes.

My analogy was dumb.

What I’m trying to say is that we didn’t need to settle for a civic. We were rebuilding and needed to hit a jackpot
- sbroads24

Inherent in your determination is the assumptions that a pick has 1/10 chancecat a million and a player is a $5iver.

It’s never that plain to see.

Inherent in your determination is the assumptions that a pick has 1/10 chancecat a million and a player is a $5iver.

It’s never that plain to see.
- Der Kaiser

Look back on most drafts. There are usually a few "difference makers" picked in the teens and twenties.

We had two picks in the twenties in a loaded 2015 1st round.

Lehner is a civic
Kane is a Maserati that's lease is up.

Yes.

My analogy was dumb.

What I’m trying to say is that we didn’t need to settle for a civic. We were rebuilding and needed to hit a jackpot
- sbroads24

I knew what you were getting at when you asked the question


the pick could be used to get a promising prospect though as well as a 3 year lottery ticket in a separate trade

No, because I can acquire a Honda Civic anyday of my life by walking into a dealership and buying one. I don't need to give up a chance at a huge jackpot to acquire it. Plus they aren't rare.
- sbroads24

Ok, now you're introducing opportunity cost into it.

None of those goalies who were traded are exactly lighting the league on fire either.

What has NJ gotten out of Schneider so far? This year might be different, it might not.

Bottom line is those goalies went for varying prices and none have anything to show for it, so, it's not like we got extra shafted.

Look back on most drafts. There are usually a few "difference makers" picked in the teens and twenties.

We had two picks in the twenties in a loaded 2015 1st round.

Lehner is a civic
Kane is a Maserati that's lease is up.
- sbroads24

There’s the rub. 20 picks are made in the 10s and 20s. If only a few make a difference - and by nature of the fact they’re selected in those spots they must not have been seen as such - youre not really buying a 1/10 chance at a million. You’re buying a 1/5 shot at a prize you think is $100000 and it turns out to be $1M.

I think.

Look back on most drafts. There are usually a few "difference makers" picked in the teens and twenties.

We had two picks in the twenties in a loaded 2015 1st round.

Lehner is a civic
Kane is a Maserati that's lease is up.
- sbroads24

Sorry, but "most" and "usually" isn't enough to move the needle. And it's not necessarily an even playing field, some teams have better scouting staffs than others, so a 10% chance for one team might be a 5% chance for another.

You're over simplifying an extremely complex system.

Ok, now you're introducing opportunity cost into it.

None of those goalies who were traded are exactly lighting the league on fire either.

What has NJ gotten out of Schneider so far? This year might be different, it might not.

Bottom line is those goalies went for varying prices and none have anything to show for it, so, it's not like we got extra shafted.
- Wetbandit1

well no but we didnt have to get shafted at all in the first place

Most likely we will get a 1st in the twenties for Kane at the deadline, maybe a prospect as well.

That's what Lehner cost, pick 21. in the 2015 draft.

Lehner is an ok goalie. I don't think he sucks, he also isn't very good to great.

I wouldn't trade Kane right now for a goalie of Lehner's quality. Those can be found in lots of places.

I would however trade Kane for a pick that could potentially be a very good player. With an equal or even slightly greater chance they are nothing special (like Lehner) to even a possible bust.

Draft picks are lotto tickets. I wouldn't trade in a lotto ticket with 1/10 chance at a million dollar Jackpot (Boeser) for a Honda Civic. (Lehner)

Sometimes the pick is worth more than an actual player.
- sbroads24

I agree, the kane Trade should include a 1st.
Makes sense that it would be a playoff team or hopefully a team just on the outside, hoping to get in.

Looking at the USA goalies here in the tournament. The guy from Dallas former bu goalie and 1st round pick.

Maybe kane for carey hart of canada? With philidelphia, hextall might like lehner too

There’s the rub. 20 picks are made in the 10s and 20s. If only a few make a difference - and by nature of the fact they’re selected in those spots they must not have been seen as such - youre not really buying a 1/10 chance at a million. You’re buying a 1/5 shot at a prize you think is $100000 and it turns out to be $1M.

I think.
- Der Kaiser

this number also depends on who you pick. When you use the first rounder from the gaustad trade on your typical "hard nosed try hard" you already cap your ceiling by overvaluing assets that can be found in free agency

when you go for that higher risk higher reward kind of player from europe who's skill is off the charts, now you're looking at that potential million dollar cash prize. Obviously this is an extreme example but the odds also depend on the approach

Sorry, but "most" and "usually" isn't enough to move the needle. And it's not necessarily an even playing field, some teams have better scouting staffs than others, so a 10% chance for one team might be a 5% chance for another.

You're over simplifying an extremely complex system.
- Wetbandit1

The 2015 draft itself is enough to move the needle.

Doesn't matter how good or bad the scouting staffs are, it was universally known as an incredibly loaded 1st round.

Of course some will be duds, but some will also be the Porche's that you can't walk into the dealership to buy (find in free agency, etc)

There’s the rub. 20 picks are made in the 10s and 20s. If only a few make a difference - and by nature of the fact they’re selected in those spots they must not have been seen as such - youre not really buying a 1/10 chance at a million. You’re buying a 1/5 shot at a prize you think is $100000 and it turns out to be $1M.

I think.
- Der Kaiser

That got a bit confusing for me, but I get the idea that Jbotts is looking for an ahl player or college guy. How would that effect the formula? Trading for a guy a bit older. That has to increase the chances of making the nhl or being a star?

That got a bit confusing for me, but I get the idea that Jbotts is looking for an ahl player or college guy. How would that effect the formula? Trading for a guy a bit older. That has to increase the chances of making the nhl or being a star?
- Boss34

I think it would take some of the variables out of the equation. Or at least help to define them.

The 2015 draft itself is enough to move the needle.

Doesn't matter how good or bad the scouting staffs are, it was universally known as an incredibly loaded 1st round.

Of course some will be duds, but some will also be the Porche's that you can't walk into the dealership to buy (find in free agency, etc)
- sbroads24

How many 10s and 20s from 2015 are in the League today, and what have they done?

That got a bit confusing for me, but I get the idea that Jbotts is looking for an ahl player or college guy. How would that effect the formula? Trading for a guy a bit older. That has to increase the chances of making the nhl or being a star?
- Boss34

I knew I should have put the bong down when the initial question was posed, lol.

I guess my position would be that specific to Kane this year, I would want a 1st and a solid prospect. The 1st is the lottery ticket, and scouting has a ton to do with it. Given the wasted 1’s the Sabres have made, I personally have a lower expectation that they will capitalize with that pick and turn it into gold versus some other teams.
The solid prospect is necessary to de-risk that lottery ticket by presumptively getting some value from the trade.

Not sure how that all translates into the convo though ... I absolutely hated Stats.

How many 10s and 20s from 2015 are in the League today, and what have they done?
- Der Kaiser

Mcjesus, Eichel, Marner, Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, Rantanen, Barzal, Connor, Boeser, Konecny are all mainstays on their respective teams.

edit: Unless you meant from pick 10 onwards

How many 10s and 20s from 2015 are in the League today, and what have they done?
- Der Kaiser

That's the thing though. We didn't need them *today* or last year. We need them when the reast of the team is ready.

Matthew Barzal was picked 16th, has 35 points in 38 career games. He's a jackpot already

Brock Boeser has 24 goals in his first 43 NHL games. He's a jackpot already

Kyle Connor looks like he's a jackpot already, picked 17th.

Hell, Brendan Guhle looks like he could be a jackpot for being picked in the 50's.

Would you trade Brendan Guhle for Lehner right now?

It would be different if we were on the cusp, and needed a goalie to put us over the top.

We hit the jackpot, bought the house, and all we need is a reliable car to make it to work. Enter the Civic.

I knew I should have put the bong down when the initial question was posed, lol.

I guess my position would be that specific to Kane this year, I would want a 1st and a solid prospect. The 1st is the lottery ticket, and scouting has a ton to do with it. Given the wasted 1’s the Sabres have made, I personally have a lower expectation that they will capitalize with that pick and turn it into gold versus some other teams.
The solid prospect is necessary to de-risk that lottery ticket by presumptively getting some value from the trade.

Not sure how that all translates into the convo though ... I absolutely hated Stats.
- IonSabres

Hoping that we fired some of the scouts and hired some new guys when we switched gms. Anyone know who was released?

Makes sense with a pick and a player. These picks are 3 years out. Hopefully were trying to get something going sooner than 3 years

That's the thing though. We didn't need them *today* or last year. We need them when the reast of the team is ready.

Matthew Barzal was picked 16th, has 35 points in 38 career games. He's a jackpot already

Brock Boeser has 24 goals in his first 43 NHL games. He's a jackpot already

Kyle Connor looks like he's a jackpot already, picked 17th.

Hell, Brendan Guhle looks like he could be a jackpot for being picked in the 50's.

Would you trade Brendan Guhle for Lehner right now?

It would be different if we were on the cusp, and needed a goalie to put us over the top.

We hit the jackpot, bought the house, and all we need is a reliable car to make it to work. Enter the Civic.
- sbroads24

We have been over this. We should get over this.

The man tried and failed. He paid the PRICE.

We can’t make policy going forward based on probabilities from once in a generation draft that occurred 3 years ago

Also, there’s a very good chance most of those guys wind up being Civics, themselves.

That's the thing though. We didn't need them *today* or last year. We need them when the reast of the team is ready.

Matthew Barzal was picked 16th, has 35 points in 38 career games. He's a jackpot already

Brock Boeser has 24 goals in his first 43 NHL games. He's a jackpot already

Kyle Connor looks like he's a jackpot already, picked 17th.

Hell, Brendan Guhle looks like he could be a jackpot for being picked in the 50's.

Would you trade Brendan Guhle for Lehner right now?

It would be different if we were on the cusp, and needed a goalie to put us over the top.

We hit the jackpot, bought the house, and all we need is a reliable car to make it to work. Enter the Civic.
- sbroads24

Funny how Boeser has 24 goals
Barzal has 35 points,
But people still defend silent sam and his 5 goals

which number is middlingstats?

Edit: lol the camera work in this tournament is so bush league

which number is middlingstats?

Edit: lol the camera work in this tournament is so bush league
- Sabresfan-365

#11

which number is middlingstats?
- Sabresfan-365

Great camera work from the wrong end of the ice for USA first goal

Funny how Boeser has 24 goals
Barzal has 35 points,
But people still defend silent sam and his 5 goals
- Boss34

I don't think there's anyone within 50 miles (Or approximately 67 km for our Canadian fans) who is willing to defend reinhart

Great camera work from the wrong end of the ice for USA first goal
- Der Kaiser

see my edit, its been brutal for all games so far