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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Quick 10: Is This House Made of Glass?
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Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Dec 29 @ 1:14 PM ET
I'm not sure what this team is right now. They can come out and beat really good teams for 5 wins in a row, then put up 3 stinkers on the road. It seems they go as the rookies and young guys go. When Rutta and Forsling are on, the team excels. When they show that they are, in fact, rookies and 21 year olds, the team struggles. Hard to get a handle on what's going to happen.
- JRoenick97

This seems to fit what Justin mentioned a few blogs ago. Something like the veteran core being able to coast to conserve energy for the latter part of the season and playoffs (if they make it) while giving the rookies, sophomores, and new guys "trial by fire" to learn how to play under adversity so they're better for it down the line.

I could see that strategy being a source of tension amongst the team. Who knows, maybe Saad didn't expect this coming back to the team he loves and is starting to get disenfranchised. I know, conspiracy theory. Regardless, most if not all of us didn't expect such a huge drop off in production from him. Hopefully he's just in a slump and he will eventually turn it around organically.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 29 @ 1:17 PM ET
Not necessarily directed at you to answer but for anyone who is interested. I think this line of commenting on this blog points at redefining the core. If that is the question, then who would you redefine as the core moving forward?

To make things interesting, assume a new CBA allows for 2 compiance buyouts. Who would those buyouts be and would they change your new core?

- AEL_Fox


The only way that would help is if none of the salary continued to count towards the cap, otherwise it really doesn’t help that much.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Dec 29 @ 1:18 PM ET
The only way that would help is if none of the salary continued to count towards the cap, otherwise it really doesn’t help that much.
- walleyeb1

That's what the compliance buyouts were. Basically free cap buyouts. You just still pay the guy.
tompo1015
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 03.17.2013

Dec 29 @ 1:24 PM ET
Not necessarily directed at you to answer but for anyone who is interested. I think this line of commenting on this blog points at redefining the core. If that is the question, then who would you redefine as the core moving forward?

To make things interesting, assume a new CBA allows for 2 compiance buyouts. Who would those buyouts be and would they change your new core?

- AEL_Fox




One buyout would be Seabrook, IMO. The second would he harder. If Toews has a long term injury that prevents him from being what He was 3 years ago, then you use the second buyout on 19. But... If all he needs is rest, recuperation....i say give him that time now.

walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 29 @ 1:27 PM ET
That's what the compliance buyouts were. Basically free cap buyouts. You just still pay the guy.
- JRoenick97


Got you, they still get paid using the regular buyout process though right.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Dec 29 @ 1:30 PM ET
Got you, they still get paid using the regular buyout process though right.
- walleyeb1

Yeah, just no cap hit.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 29 @ 1:38 PM ET
Not necessarily directed at you to answer but for anyone who is interested. I think this line of commenting on this blog points at redefining the core. If that is the question, then who would you redefine as the core moving forward?

To make things interesting, assume a new CBA allows for 2 compiance buyouts. Who would those buyouts be and would they change your new core?

- AEL_Fox



Who in your opinion would be more likely to exercise the opt out clause, the NHL or the NHL Players Association.

The present CBA between the NHL and NHL Players Association is due to expire on Sept. 15, 2022. However, each side has the opportunity in September 2019 to exercise their respective opt-out clauses. Should one side do so, the CBA would expire on Sept. 15, 2020.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Dec 29 @ 1:39 PM ET
Who in your opinion would be more likely to exercise the opt out clause, the NHL or the NHL Players Association.

The present CBA between the NHL and NHL Players Association is due to expire on Sept. 15, 2022. However, each side has the opportunity in September 2019 to exercise their respective opt-out clauses. Should one side do so, the CBA would expire on Sept. 15, 2020.

- walleyeb1

Players. I don't think the Olympics thing is sitting too well.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Dec 29 @ 1:41 PM ET
Who in your opinion would be more likely to exercise the opt out clause, the NHL or the NHL Players Association.

The present CBA between the NHL and NHL Players Association is due to expire on Sept. 15, 2022. However, each side has the opportunity in September 2019 to exercise their respective opt-out clauses. Should one side do so, the CBA would expire on Sept. 15, 2020.

- walleyeb1

I honestly don't know a whole lot about the details of the CBA, but my money would be on the NHLPA.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 29 @ 1:51 PM ET
I honestly don't know a whole lot about the details of the CBA, but my money would be on the NHLPA.
- AEL_Fox


Well I guess it doesn’t much matter who invokes it. In any case assuming all went well (no lockout) the new CBA would be effective for the 2020/21 season.

Toews, Kane and Keith would have three years remaining on their contracts including the 2020/21 season.

Seabrook would have four seasons remaining.

Saad and Anisimov would be in their final contract year.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Dec 29 @ 1:54 PM ET
Happy New Year 66, back at ya!
I understand the comment about the "rough ride" with the Capt Float moniker. Yes, we all get old and it's a b!tch (1 guy on our team is riding around with a bunch of stents and another just had a quad open-heart bypass) -- Father Time catches up to all of us.

No, I think the Capt Float really refers to the salary, the endless comments from the club and team members that they've played more hockey than any human in the last 8 years and the fact that it just looks like the fire is gone from the guy.

I see #19 gliding around much more than ever, see very little fire (other than the fire from him complaining to the refs, he has gotten worse than Crybaby Cindy) and if he is hurt or has some other issue, he should simply go on LTIR. Never heard a word from Hossa on any issues, played as hard as he could for as long as he could and then did the right thing by not stringing the club along.

Simply think that the problem starts there (with #19 -- his play and lack of leadership). It all looks like it leads to a club divided. They are NOT playing for each other (as you know, that may be THE most important aspect of any good club) and this seems to be the biggest reason we see them struggling.

- savvyone-1



I'll give you this bolded thing. If they were all for one and one for all Crawford wouldn't have taken the beating in his crease that he has for a couple of years now.
I know the NHLPA pushed 19+88's agents to make a score when their contracts came up for the benefit of the rest of the players. And there is plenty of outside influence too. Can't lay that on Toews. In fact I think 19+88 taking the same deal was a nice teamwork thing. But with new faces in and out as well as the spot picking discipline with ice time there's more going on than we know. Maybe Toews is sick, tired, and exhausted from a lot more than just his play. Tony Esposito used to say "play and take as much money as you can until they change the locks and don't give you a key". Perhaps JT is a bit embarrassed as well.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Dec 29 @ 1:55 PM ET
Not necessarily directed at you to answer but for anyone who is interested. I think this line of commenting on this blog points at redefining the core. If that is the question, then who would you redefine as the core moving forward?

To make things interesting, assume a new CBA allows for 2 compiance buyouts. Who would those buyouts be and would they change your new core?

- AEL_Fox


It's a good question.

I don't think this team has a full "core" to move forward with.

Kane and Crawford are the best players on this team, I'd keep them if I wanted to win a Cup in the next four years.

They need to add a couple of star and/or some top tier players or have them emerge from the youth on the team and in the organization - but I don't see it yet. Maybe in a couple of years?

There are some guys who could fill in some second tier roles on this team in the next few years: AA, Saad, Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Forsling, Rutta, Murphy, Seabrook, and even Toews, if he can turn it around.

The problem is the talent deficit at the top of the roster. Guys are slotted above their current talent level - guys who could be more successful if they were in the middle of the roster. At this point, I'd put Toews in that category, but I hope he turns it around and regains what he's lost. But 1RW is also a deficit position on this roster right now. Center depth, of course. Similar on the defense.

Need more talent.

As I posted earlier, they need to figure out the Toews situation.

I still think the best strategy, all things considered, is to try to reload for another cup run in 2018-19. Shut down Toews now and see if he can get himself right for next season. Dump guys that don't have a future with the team like Kempny and maybe Panik, see if you can add some guys whose contracts expire at the end of the 18-19 season. If it doesn't work out, go into sell mode next season and plan to part ways with Toews and Seabrook by the end of next season via buyout or trade or LTIR or retirement. There are rumors of a higher cap next summer, maybe add some significant pieces.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Dec 29 @ 1:57 PM ET
So we're now discussing the next CBA, a completely pulled from one's ass potential for there to be new contract buyout options, how we would use those options to get rid of the slugs Toews and Seabrook, etc? Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Dec 29 @ 2:05 PM ET
WATCH: Head Coach @Blackiehubcap recaps tonight's 6-3 win in Iowa, Matt Highmore's 2nd hat trick, Delia's 1st AHL win and more.

https://youtu.be/fR1oaHs-N_A
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Dec 29 @ 2:11 PM ET
@ByScottPowers

Kayumov has three goals and two assists in three games in the tournament
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Dec 29 @ 2:16 PM ET
I'm not 100% sure. I believe the core is still with him and the younger players respect him. He treats his guys pretty well but now that they are not winning, things can go south pretty quick.

I said today to my wife, I wish Q could just go on an extended holiday and the Hawks could have someone else pop in temporarily to see if they could improve the team.

You know, because I would hate to dump a HOF coach just to find out that maybe tbis team is just not that good.

... and at that point the sights hone in on the guy(s) that put this team together.

- Justin Lowe


Whispers growing louder Joel has lost the room.

Have heard from one source family member of a younger player, another close to a "core" guy (about as core as you can get—although I trust this source a bit less).

The first one is legit and confirmed, but sometimes that's because the player is just pissed at how he's being handled, which would not surprise me in this instance.

Either way, it bears watching. The lack of effort some nights is concerning.
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Dec 29 @ 2:18 PM ET
But with new faces in and out as well as the spot picking discipline with ice time there's more going on than we know. Maybe Toews is sick, tired, and exhausted from a lot more than just his play. Tony Esposito used to say "play and take as much money as you can until they change the locks and don't give you a key". Perhaps JT is a bit embarrassed as well.
- 6628


I've said this numerous times as it relates to Toews -- I sure hope it's not something like Bickell's diagnosis. I'm sure we all remember ragging on the guy endlessly in JJ's blogs for #29 not being able to stay up on his skates, falling down all the time in spite of his big frame and strength.

So it turns out to be an undiagnosed (at the time) health issue we knew nothing about because if there was any inkling of it, I highly doubt anyone here is THAT mean-spirited.

So I am hoping (like I'm sure all of us) that it's nothing "serious" in that regard with Toews. I've had back issues for many years (and I know many others here have too) and it's always "there" even when it's not. If this is #19's problem, shut him down for the rest of the year, have him heal/stretch/get into a yoga program/whatever to get himself well. If it's something beyond, hopefully the club knows and if they do, they are doing a disservice to everyone (the coaches, the rest of the roster -- and for sure the fans paying the freight with their season tickets as the year gets flushed down the crapper).

To the last bolded part, we will likely never know until years later when JT decides to write a tell-all book about his award-laden career. I have a title in mind but will keep that under-wraps at the moment.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Dec 29 @ 2:38 PM ET
Whispers growing louder Joel has lost the room.

Have heard from one source family member of a younger player, another close to a "core" guy (about as core as you can get—although I trust this source a bit less).

The first one is legit and confirmed, but sometimes that's because the player is just pissed at how he's being handled, which would not surprise me in this instance.

Either way, it bears watching. The lack of effort some nights is concerning.

- John Jaeckel

Thanks for the intel, JJ.

Not that it matters, but for the bolded part, my guess is this player is either Saad, Sharp, Schmaltz, or Hartman.

Most likely Saad as he is as close to core as anyone but is he being mishandled?

Maybe Sharp as he used to be core yet he may not like how he is being played/not played.

Schmaltz is a great talent but not core (yet and still a ways away); is he unhappy about playing wing?

Hartman seems to have grounds for a legitimate beef for how he's being handled but he's not even close to core, IMHO.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Dec 29 @ 2:41 PM ET
Whispers growing louder Joel has lost the room.

Have heard from one source family member of a younger player, another close to a "core" guy (about as core as you can get—although I trust this source a bit less).

The first one is legit and confirmed, but sometimes that's because the player is just pissed at how he's being handled, which would not surprise me in this instance.

Either way, it bears watching. The lack of effort some nights is concerning.

- John Jaeckel


Always an option to fire the coach as they cannot fire the entire team. The defensive zone breakdowns last night were awful. Vanek parked in front of the net without resistance on both his goals. Kane, Schmaltz, Hartman and Murphy were the only guys busting their asses last night IMO. Something's gotta change because this team is stuck in the mud of mediocrity.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Dec 29 @ 2:42 PM ET
The problems start in the net and go forward.

-Without Crawford their goaltending is a work in progress.
-Keith and Seabs have been just ok.
-The next 6 defenders are young and inexperienced. They look good at times, but they are in and out of the lineup and their partner (and sometimes the side they are playing) changes game to game.
- You have one elite top line forward in Kane. After that you have 3 second line forwards in Toews, Anisimov, Saad. Beyond that you have a lot of 3rd liners. The 4th line of Bouma, Wingels, Hayden is decent.

Their future depends on Crawford staying healthy, Toews and Saad returning to form, and growth/development from their younger kids (Debrincat, Schmaltz, Hartman, Hayden, Hino, Kampf, Forsling, Murphy, Oesterle, Forsberg). They have very little in Rockford or beyond.

We are in the Red Wings mode now.
-Not much top talent
-Not much hope of the younger players rising up to be top 6 forwards, top 4 defenders, or elite goalies.
-No salary flexibility
-No tradeable assets

They will be fighting for a playoff spot each year and eliminated in an early round (if they get in) with mid round draft picks as long as the core holds on. Then go into rebuild in summer of 2023 when the Toews and Kane contracts come off of the books.

Having said that I will still follow them, root for them and enjoy the game itself. For the last 6 years it has been great to be a Hawks fan.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Dec 29 @ 2:43 PM ET
Whispers growing louder Joel has lost the room.

Have heard from one source family member of a younger player, another close to a "core" guy (about as core as you can get—although I trust this source a bit less).

The first one is legit and confirmed, but sometimes that's because the player is just pissed at how he's being handled, which would not surprise me in this instance.

Either way, it bears watching. The lack of effort some nights is concerning.

- John Jaeckel


It would add up if he has lost or is starting to lose the room.

If it's reached the core, that's the beginning oclf the end as it will not create the right environment for those younger players.

He and Bowman have had their quarrels in the past so might not bode well for Q if this starts getting back to him.
Hawkster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Quebec , QC
Joined: 06.13.2008

Dec 29 @ 2:47 PM ET
One buyout would be Seabrook, IMO. The second would he harder. If Toews has a long term injury that prevents him from being what He was 3 years ago, then you use the second buyout on 19. But... If all he needs is rest, recuperation....i say give him that time now.
- tompo1015


Use the buyout or trade cause for whatever reasons this guy's done. Playing like a 4 million dollar player and no where near what he's costing his team. No amount of rest or improved line mates will do the trick. Time to move cause as the Captain and supposed leader, well his effort on the ice is not leader worthy.

And to me Q has lost his touch and maybe even the room as JJ mentions. Change in leadership on the ice and behind the beach would do this team good.

As well moving Seabs, Panik and some others would be wise. Season is just not there, get a high draft and start fresh next year.

Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Dec 29 @ 2:53 PM ET
It's a good question.

I don't think this team has a full "core" to move forward with.

Kane and Crawford are the best players on this team, I'd keep them if I wanted to win a Cup in the next four years.

They need to add a couple of star and/or some top tier players or have them emerge from the youth on the team and in the organization - but I don't see it yet. Maybe in a couple of years?

There are some guys who could fill in some second tier roles on this team in the next few years: AA, Saad, Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Forsling, Rutta, Murphy, Seabrook, and even Toews, if he can turn it around.

The problem is the talent deficit at the top of the roster. Guys are slotted above their current talent level - guys who could be more successful if they were in the middle of the roster. At this point, I'd put Toews in that category, but I hope he turns it around and regains what he's lost. But 1RW is also a deficit position on this roster right now. Center depth, of course. Similar on the defense.

Need more talent.

As I posted earlier, they need to figure out the Toews situation.

I still think the best strategy, all things considered, is to try to reload for another cup run in 2018-19. Shut down Toews now and see if he can get himself right for next season. Dump guys that don't have a future with the team like Kempny and maybe Panik, see if you can add some guys whose contracts expire at the end of the 18-19 season. If it doesn't work out, go into sell mode next season and plan to part ways with Toews and Seabrook by the end of next season via buyout or trade or LTIR or retirement. There are rumors of a higher cap next summer, maybe add some significant pieces.

- matt_ahrens

That's a good way to think about it: core, then 2nd tier support players. I imagine after that you have the role players like a Bouma or Wingels.

Kane and Crawford are definitely core. Toews and Seabrook are now 2nd tier as you pointed out.

Saad is closest to being the core, just needs to right his ship and continue his upward development that he was showing prior to this year. He still has potential to be a perennial 30 goal, 55+ point power forward.

Although they have a lot more to prove, IMHO, potential core candidates would be Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Forsling, and Murphy. Each has their own weaknesses that need to be addressed. If not, they stay as 2nd tier: good players with definite strengths but also definite shortcomings that may make them expendable.

Of that foursome, Murphy continues to to trend up and up while the others seem to teeter totter or at least stagnate.
Savoy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spencer, NC
Joined: 01.15.2014

Dec 29 @ 2:57 PM ET
So far as predicted just about every trade for this season has been a disaster. Crawford is hurt and that finishes any chance we had. Meanwhile Panerin is leading his team in scoring. And on and on and on. Bowman who deserves paychecks from St Louis for trading Chicago into nearly last place should not last 10 more games.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Dec 29 @ 3:09 PM ET
I was just teasing, but I laughed to myself reading it. Next goal he gets I'll yell it out just for funsies.
GL tonight guys - I never know which Oilers team will show up til puck drop

- ChonDerry


Me too, ha!

Looks like Klembof is in tonight.

GL to you ad well. If the same Hawks team shows up in Edmonton tonight, you guys wont need much luck.
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