This season will be poor for adding picks for calgary for sure. They are in more of a win now mode though and the team is young so not world ending.

Plus minus to me is stupid. Plus minus of an entire team tells a bigger story than individual plus minus. For instance, the entire canuck roster being a minus except for tanev says more about the team to me than individual minus or plus numbers.
- Codes1087

The thing that bothers me the most about the analytics community is the smugness surrounding the "right" stats, and finding stats that tell the "true" story.

If you put heavy emphasis on any statistic in hockey, it will mislead you. "+/- doesnt tell you the whole story, it doesnt factor variables, etc" is the common narrative about why its bad; but the same can be applied for goals. Being a 20-goal scorer makes a player amazing, yet how many bounced in off them or was the work of an amazing linemate, poor defending, EN, etc. Plus/Minus basically gives you the ratio of times you were on the ice for a goal when you were 5v5 (and if you were advantaged/disadvantaged on SH/PP situations), its not a prediction metric

The thing that bothers me the most about the analytics community is the smugness surrounding the "right" stats, and finding stats that tell the "true" story.

If you put heavy emphasis on any statistic in hockey, it will mislead you. "+/- doesnt tell you the whole story, it doesnt factor variables, etc" is the common narrative about why its bad; but the same can be applied for goals. Being a 20-goal scorer makes a player amazing, yet how many bounced in off them or was the work of an amazing linemate, poor defending, EN, etc. Plus/Minus basically gives you the ratio of times you were on the ice for a goal when you were 5v5 (and if you were advantaged/disadvantaged on SH/PP situations), its not a prediction metric
- WhiteLie

This ^

Keeping an open mind to seeing eye and analytics and not having tunnel vision to one side gives you a better vision of a player than what any scoresheet or database could tell you

The thing that bothers me the most about the analytics community is the smugness surrounding the "right" stats, and finding stats that tell the "true" story.

If you put heavy emphasis on any statistic in hockey, it will mislead you. "+/- doesnt tell you the whole story, it doesnt factor variables, etc" is the common narrative about why its bad; but the same can be applied for goals. Being a 20-goal scorer makes a player amazing, yet how many bounced in off them or was the work of an amazing linemate, poor defending, EN, etc. Plus/Minus basically gives you the ratio of times you were on the ice for a goal when you were 5v5 (and if you were advantaged/disadvantaged on SH/PP situations), its not a prediction metric
- WhiteLie

I wonder if it will be Anson Carter night in Columbus?

The thing that bothers me the most about the analytics community is the smugness surrounding the "right" stats, and finding stats that tell the "true" story.

If you put heavy emphasis on any statistic in hockey, it will mislead you. "+/- doesnt tell you the whole story, it doesnt factor variables, etc" is the common narrative about why its bad; but the same can be applied for goals. Being a 20-goal scorer makes a player amazing, yet how many bounced in off them or was the work of an amazing linemate, poor defending, EN, etc. Plus/Minus basically gives you the ratio of times you were on the ice for a goal when you were 5v5 (and if you were advantaged/disadvantaged on SH/PP situations)
- WhiteLie

What real variables are there for plus minus? PP and PK aren't counted. You are either on for the goal or not.

Who cares if you back check hard, steal the puck, D man passes the puck to a forward and he scores. The guy back checking doesn't get an assist. Back checking isn't even a stat. It helped your team score though. Plus-Minus to me is players that can do the little things to help your team win.

This season will be poor for adding picks for calgary for sure. They are in more of a win now mode though and the team is young so not world ending.
- mauryballstein

Thankful we're 6 points behind where we were last year.

Thankful we're 6 points behind where we were last year.
- VanHockeyGuy

Buffalo gaining momentum too

Buffalo gaining momentum too
- Codes1087

As they should. Tankers

- 1970vintage

My .02 on both the traditional stats and advanced stats communities is that they are both very dismissive of the other. I believe that one on it's own is useless, but when you combine the data you give yourself a better chance at a true representation of what that player's value is.

Plus minus has a value when combined with shot attempts for/against per 60 as an example. As a coach I do not turn a blind eye to any data that helps me make a more effective decision as to a players value and deployment. I just think it's too dismissive to say this stat is dumb or useless vs. that one.

If we take an open minded approach to game and situation evaluation we get a better chance at developing a productive effective piece on your team.

This season will be poor for adding picks for calgary for sure. They are in more of a win now mode though and the team is young so not world ending.
- mauryballstein

2 line hockey team at best, they lose Monahan and backlund to long term injuries there franked, most teams would be though.

This ^

Keeping an open mind to seeing eye and analytics and not having tunnel vision to one side gives you a better vision of a player than what any scoresheet or database could tell you
- Codes1087

I feel like far too often if a player has a positive Corsi and a bad +/-, analytics guys like to dismiss the +/- as irrelevant or unlucky. To me it is a signal to the staff that this is worth reviewing for reasons why and if there are areas for improvement because clearly at critical times (goals) this player is frequently on the wrong side of the differential. Go to the film and look it over

I feel like far too often if a player has a positive Corsi and a bad +/-, analytics guys like to dismiss the +/- as irrelevant or unlucky. To me it is a signal to the staff that this is worth reviewing for reasons why and if there are areas for improvement because clearly at critical times (goals) this player is frequently on the wrong side of the differential. Go to the film and look it over
- WhiteLie

Ive been labeled an analytics guy here for a while, but my love or hatred of a player stems more from playing style and habits rather than fancy stats or other. Hated bieksa pre analytics the same way i dont like gudbranson.

What real variables are there for plus minus? PP and PK aren't counted. You are either on for the goal or not.

Who cares if you back check hard, steal the puck, D man passes the puck to a forward and he scores. The guy back checking doesn't get an assist. Back checking isn't even a stat. It helped your team score though. Plus-Minus to me is players that can do the little things to help your team win.
- manvanfan

Analytics guys say its a bad stat because there are only 5-6 goals a game and doesnt reflect your overall play, because you can get a minus when the D cough up the puck etc. Those kind of variables is their argument

You get a plus if you score shorthanded, and a minus if youre scored on when on powerplay.

That was part of my point, not all stats are all encompassing, but they facts of things that happened. Hockey is too fluid to be completely figured out by numbers, positioning is something you cant quantify but impacts the game dramatically

Oilers lose to Arizona tonight, will heads roll in deadmonton? I think they should fire the whole management team including gretzky.

I feel like far too often if a player has a positive Corsi and a bad +/-, analytics guys like to dismiss the +/- as irrelevant or unlucky. To me it is a signal to the staff that this is worth reviewing for reasons why and if there are areas for improvement because clearly at critical times (goals) this player is frequently on the wrong side of the differential. Go to the film and look it over
- WhiteLie

All I can say about SatFor SatAgst is that the Sedin's are clearly leading. I don't imagine they are the best players on the team.

Ive been labeled an analytics guy here for a while, but my love or hatred of a player stems more from playing style and habits rather than fancy stats or other. Hated bieksa pre analytics the same way i dont like gudbranson.
- Codes1087

I resisted because I never thought hockey could be broken down into numbers like baseball is, but I do think there are components that are valuable. I particularly like the evolution of the community to tracking all types of plays, like zone entries (and types), shots from the "house", actual time of puck possession, etc. I dont put a ton of weight behind the stats' value but its interesting to see who leads in these categories

Analytics guys say its a bad stat because there are only 5-6 goals a game and doesnt reflect your overall play, because you can get a minus when the D cough up the puck etc. Those kind of variables is their argument

You get a plus if you score shorthanded, and a minus if youre scored on when on powerplay.

That was part of my point, not all stats are all encompassing, but they facts of things that happened. Hockey is too fluid to be completely figured out by numbers, positioning is something you can't quantify but impacts the game dramatically
- WhiteLie

How many goals are scored per year on the PK to really skew the plus minus stat. If anything it shows that those players are good when down a man.

It's a team game. If the D coughs up the puck, is that because the forward wasn't open, the forward gave him a poopty pass. A forward can certainly be apart of a D coughing up the puck.

A D can get a minus because a forward misses a coverage.

I'm not saying it's the end all be all but for me it's shows responsible players that can contribute to a team winning a game and not losing it.

I resisted because I never thought hockey could be broken down into numbers like baseball is, but I do think there are components that are valuable. I particularly like the evolution of the community to tracking all types of plays, like zone entries (and types), shots from the "house", actual time of puck possession, etc. I don't put a ton of weight behind the stats' value but its interesting to see who leads in these categories
- WhiteLie

Baseball is a pretty static game.

Draft Dahlin or Bolmquist
Sign Evander Kane
Sign Erik Karlsson year after

Gaudette here next year

Were lookin good. I cant believe im not a gm lol

Draft Dahlin or Bolmquist
Sign Evander Kane
Sign Erik Karlsson year after

Gaudette here next year

Were lookin good. I can't believe im not a gm lol
- Jkuzzi

Or Sober?

I missed horvat. But yah overall plus minus is dumb
- Codes1087

True. 5 players on one team and 5 players on the other all contribute to every plus or negative in that stat.

Or Sober?
- manvanfan

I feel like far too often if a player has a positive Corsi and a bad +/-, analytics guys like to dismiss the +/- as irrelevant or unlucky. To me it is a signal to the staff that this is worth reviewing for reasons why and if there are areas for improvement because clearly at critical times (goals) this player is frequently on the wrong side of the differential. Go to the film and look it over
- WhiteLie

I don't think many analytics guys dismiss +/- as irrelevant or unlucky because they do often measure a players goals for and goals against usually shown as GF% but don't use the "traditional" +/- because of the way it is used by mainstream media, who will use it to evaluate a player based off of one games or a portion of the season.

The reason analytics guys don't believe in +/- is because the sample size is incredibly small and one of the most important rules in statistics is validating your analysis with a large enough sample. Using +/- to evaluate a player based off of one game or even 50 games is still a really small sample. IMO most analytics guys will acknowledge a players season or career +/- as being relevant.

This is why shot based metrics are more popular and generally more proven over a long enough period of time. There are often 60 shots and 100 shot attempts during hockey games but only 4-6 goals. Even this has a lot of flaws in it and this is why analytics guys try to break it down further using zone starts, quality of competition and linemates etc.

I missed horvat. But yah overall plus minus is dumb
- Codes1087